With the corpse of the 2009 season not yet even cold, what better time to look at the 2010 season than at the present?
Sure, it’s kinda like taking a date to your wife’s funeral, but, just like the deceased spouse, I’m sure ’09 would want us to be happy and move on quickly to next season, right?
With that in mind, we’ll take a quick glance at what may happen in 2010…
FIVE COMPELLING STORY LINES
1. Meyer: For or Against Urban Renewal?
C’mon, is there any story that’s even close to whether or not Urban Meyer will be back as Florida’s coach by the time the regular season rolls around? This will be the dominant story over the next six months, and how it plays out before the season starts will shape how UF’s regular season will go.
2. Big Ten: Earnest Growth or One-Time Blip?
The most beleaguered and vilified conference in the country finished the 2009 bowl season with a 4-3 record, the first winning record for the league since 2002. And it’s not like they compiled that mark with a handful of Emerald Bowl-type wins; no, their wins came in BcS games over the Pac-10 and ACC champions (Ohio State over Oregon and Iowa over Georgia Tech, respectively), with the other two coming over No. 13 LSU (Penn State) and No. 14 Miami of Florida (Wisconsin). It was a statement postseason for the beleaguered conference, but only time will tell if the performance was a shifting trend upward or simply false hope.
3. Mountain West: Finally the Time For Some Respect
The loss by TCU to fellow non-automatic qualifier left a bad taste in the conference’s mouth, but the MWC still exited the bowl season with a 4-1 mark and a healthy dose of national respect. With their play this year, they have finally confirmed to most of the masses that they deserve an automatic BcS bid. Carrying that momentum through 2010 will be key for the automatic bid to become a reality. The conference is on a perilous slope perception-wise, and simply can’t afford to take a step back.
4. The BCmesS: Time to Grab the Congressional Pitchforks?
At no time in its controversial history has the BcS been under more fire than it is right now. They were the subject of congressional hearings throughout 2009, and the only question remains when, not if, the government becomes more deeply involved. Based on the tea leaves, one thing is certain: there will be some type of change to the system in the coming years, whether by force or by the threat of force. Will it lead to a full-blown playoff system that most of the country, including the First Fan, wants? 2010 should go a long way toward answering that question
5. Replacing Legends: Adios, Tim & Colt; Hola, John & Garrett
Entering the past three seasons, there were no question marks at the quarterback position for both Florida and Texas. With the departures of Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy due to expired eligibility, John Brantley of the Gators and Garrett Gilbert of the Longhorns have the unenviable tasks of replacing arguably the greatest QBs in their respective school’s history. How they perform will go a long way in determining whether or not the two programs can remain at the top of the national scene.
WAY-TOO-EARLY HEISMAN ROLL CALL
1. Mark Ingram, Alabama — To be the man, you gotta beat the man. Winning the Heisman as a sophomore will keep the running back in the trophy talk for the next two seasons. Provided he stays in Tuscaloosa after his junior year, of course.
2. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State — Was the Rose Bowl performance a sign of things to come? If it is, you can bet the Buckeyes quarterback will be in any and all Heisman talk.
3. Kellen Moore, Boise State — One of the best quarterbacks in the country that nobody talks about, the early-season match-up with Virginia Tech will go a long way toward determining Moore’s place in the Heisman discussion. Speaking of that showdown with the Hokies…
4. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech — 1,655 yards rushing and 21 touchdowns as a freshman? Yeah, that’ll get you into the mix. The Moore-Williams September head-to-head will jump-start the race for the stiff-armed trophy. And, no, we’re not completely finished with Six Degrees of Kellen Moore…
5a. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State — With 1,440 yards rushing, 21 touchdowns and, for good measure, 78 receptions out of the backfield, this Beaver back is one of the best running backs in the country that nobody talks about. Oh, did I mention that Rogers’ Beavers will take on Moore’s Broncos in September? Early-season Heisman intrigue, indeed.
5b. Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh — It’s hard to believe a freshman had a more productive season than Williams, but Lewis did just that. 1,799 yards just screams Heisman contender for many years to come. Unless, of course, head coach Dave Wannstedt rides him into an early RB grave.
COACHING HOT SEAT
1.Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
The throne entering the 2010 season is RichRod’s alone, and no one else is really close. An 8-16 overall mark in two years at Michigan is bad enough; a 3-13 record in Big Ten play is wholly unacceptable in Ann Arbor. Add in an NCAA investigation and two losses to archrival Ohio State by a combined 46 points, and you have a coach facing an absolute must-win season.
2. Ron Zook, Illinois
Really, is there any explanation needed? With the exception of a head-scratching 9-4 season in 2007, The Zookster has compiled a 12-35 record in his five seasons with the Illini. The school has recruited better than that record indicates, which is a tribute to Zook’s innate ability to coach his players down.
3. Paul Wulff, Washington State
You don’t go 3-22 in two seasons and not have your butt planted on something with at least a little bit of warmth to it.
4. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
T. Boone Pickens did not donate approximately $300 kajillion (U.S.) to watch his beloved Cowboys go 9-4, not play in the Big 12 title game and lose bowl games. T. Boone wants more bang for his buck, and what T. Boone wants T. Boone gets.
5. Pete Carroll, Southern Cal
This one might be stretch. In fact, it’s so much of a stretch that I might’ve torn a muscle typing it. However, with the looming specter of an NCAA investigation coming to a conclusion at some point this year, coupled with an utterly disappointing 2009 season, Carroll could be feeling the heat more so than he has at any point in his USC career.
FIVE RISERSFive teams outside the final Top Ten who could surprise
Sure, they have to replace a Beast Named Suh, but there is plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball returning for Bo Pelini & Company. If the ‘Huskers could just get some type of consistency on the other side of the ball — yeah, I’m looking at you Zac Lee — this team should be the class of Big 12 North and might be able to challenge Texas for conference supremacy.
2. Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes showed in the early part of the 2009 season that the talent is there. Look for The U to put it together throughout the entire 2010 season and make a serious bid for both an ACC title and top-ten ranking.
With Dion Lewis and that defense, the immediate future is looking very bright for Dave Wannstedt & Company.
Simply put, Bob Stoops is too good of a coach, and there’s too much talent in that program, for the Sooners to spend another season outside of the Top 25. Call this one a hunch.
Yes, the likely loss of Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart to the NFL leaves a void, but, as long as
Jim Harbaugh doesn’t bol
t for the NFL and quarterback Andrew Luck stays healthy for the entire season, the Cardinal is poised to challenge Oregon for Pac-10 supremacy in 2010.
Lane Kiffin made most of his news in 2009 for what he said and did off the field. Behind all that brashness, however, he and his staff were quietly rebuilding a storied football program on the field. They might be a year away, but it would be no surprise at all to see the Volunteers challenge for a BcS berth as early as this year.
FIVE TUMBLERSFive teams inside the final Top 25 who could struggle
Uncertainty surrounding Urban Meyer. The loss of Tim Tebow. A pair of talented juniors — Joe Haden and Aaron Hernandez — have already left early; up to five more, including two-fifths of the starting offensive line, could follow suit. Charlie Strong left for the head coaching job at Louisville, and his presence will be missed. If he does indeed return as expected, it will take the best coaching job of Meyer’s coaching career to keep the Gators on top of their lofty national perch.
Butch Jones is a tremendous football coach, but make no mistake — losing Brian Kelly to Notre Dame will hurt this program. This won’t be a free-fall — Kelly left too solid a foundation for that to happen — but Jones could struggle in his first year at a BcS school.
3. Penn State
Losing quarterback Daryll Clark to graduation and Navorro Bowman to the draft are huge blows to the Nittany Lions. Evan Royster, get your rest. The offense will be on your shoulders.
Losing Colt McCoy will have an effect on the Longhorns, although Garrett Gilbert showed in the BcS title game after being suddenly thrust into the spotlight that he has a bright future. In 2011. UT will dip a little bit in ’10 — not bottom out, mind you — but look out for a reloaded group in ’11.
In the first three years of Les Miles‘ tenure, the Tigers did not win less than 11 games in any season. In the past two seasons, the Bayou Bengals have gone a very pedestrian 17-9, including an even 8-8 mark in SEC play. The concerning part for LSU faithful, though, is that there is not much hope that a turnaround is in the offing at any point in the near future. And, if Miles doesn’t turn it around in 2009, he could very well find himself on the coaching hot seat. Especially if he continues to boggle the mind with mind-numbing clock management at the end of games.
EARLY-BIRD TOP FIVE
1. Alabama: They were the best team in the country throughout the 2009 season — regardless of what the polls said. They return most of the key performers from their national title team. No way you can keep this team out of the top spot entering the season.
2. Ohio State: (And let the whining and bitching commence…) This is all predicated on the Terrelle Pryor that seemed to mature in one sixty-minute Rose Bowl game being the real deal. And the fact that the five-time defending Big Ten champs lose almost no one of consequence.
3. Boise State: Why? One, because I can, and two, because they convincingly beat the team — TCU — I felt should’ve been playing in the national title game. And that same team returns 23 of 24 starters in 2010. If a non-automatic qualifier is ever going to make a run at the BcS title game, next year’s Broncos have the best shot at it.
4. Texas: As the BcS runner-up, they will start roughly in this area if not higher. It’s deserved, given their finish, but it’ll be too high come the end of the year.
5. Iowa: The only two games the Hawkeyes lost in 2009 were games where quarterback Ricky Stanzi was unavailable for either all or part of the games due to injury. A healthy Stanzi and a dominating defense helped Iowa roll Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, setting the tone for what Hawkeye Nation hopes will be a run at the Big Ten crown. If not more.