The Swami

Predictions 101 – Week 3

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Against all odds, we’re still rolling.  Our friends in the Nevada desert remain impressed.  In Week 2, we went 9-2-1 versus “the number” and 9-3 straight-up.

For the young season, we’re sitting at 19-3-1 (one game wasn’t on the board) and 18-6.

That’s all fine and dandy.  But it’s also in the past.  We kind of feel like Oklahoma. Something bad is about to happen.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Sept. 15 thru Sat., Sept. 17)

1) No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State
Sat., Sept. 17 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Taking Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern apart by a combined score of 96-10 is one thing.  Hosting the top-ranked team in the nation is entirely another.

Quarterback E.J. Manuel is in the spotlight for the Seminole upset effort, but he’ll need to receive a great deal of support from the Florida State running game, which has yet to develop an identity.

Expect the Seminole defense to offer much more resistance to Landry Jones and his high-tempo offense this time around.  Last year, the Sooner quarterback did as he pleased versus FSU, completing 30-of-40 for 380 yards and four scores, but that was in Norman where the home team has won 37 straight.  Road games have been much more of a challenge for the Sooners, who are just 3-5 with Jones taking the snaps.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 3

The pick: Florida State 28-24

Final: Oklahoma 23-13

2) No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State
Thurs., Sept. 15 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The week-prior activity involving both teams is significantly unequal.  While the Bulldogs were slugging it out in a 41-34 loss at Auburn, the Bayou Bengals were coasting to a 49-3 victory at home over Northwestern State.

Since many of its starters didn’t play in the second half against the Demons, LSU will be much more rested than Mississippi State, which also may be without a pair of starting offensive linemen who picked up injuries at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

We figure that since the Tigers were able to handle Oregon’s supped spread offense, they’ll be able to keep tabs on Mississippi State’s version of the spread.

When they switch sides, LSU’s rugged ground attack, featuring Michael Ford and Spencer Ware, should flourish against the Bulldogs’ accommodating run defense.

Opening point spread: LSU by 4 1/2

The pick: LSU 31-21

Final: LSU 19-6

3) No. 17 Ohio State at Miami (Fla.)
Sat., Sept. 17 — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

This clash of football programs facing impending doom and shackled with various suspension calendars is being called the “Ineligi Bowl.”  We want t-shirts.

It’s a second opener of sorts for the Hurricanes, since they had last week off and are welcoming back a host of previously suspended players, including quarterback Jacory Harris and linebacker Sean Spence.

Ohio State, which is getting some players back from two-game suspensions while others remain on the shelf, nearly got upset by Toledo last week.  If not for the Rockets’ self-destructive nature, the Buckeyes could have very easily dropped their first game to an in-state opponent since 1921.

The question is if that close call versus Toledo merely serves notice of what needs to be fixed or if it seriously shines light on the current frailties associated to the program.

Opening point spread: Miami by 3

The pick: Miami 24-17

Final: Miami 24-6

4) Tennessee at No. 16 Florida
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Remember when this was one of the main event attractions in the SEC?  With the help of new blood in each corner, it’ll get back there in a couple years.

We’re pleased to see Charlie Weis back doing the sort of stuff that he was born to do.  It doesn’t hurt to have quarterback John Brantley and running backs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps to work with, but you gotta give the guy credit.

Tennessee’s super sophomore trio of quarterback Tyler Bray and wideouts Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers has our attention as well, and Derek Dooley has done an admirable job of cleaning up the mess left behind by Lane Kiffin, but there’s still much work to be done.

The Vols won’t be able to break their losing streak against the Gators, especially this year in Gainesville.  The slide will stretch to seven games.

Opening point spread: Florida by 8 1/2

The pick: Florida 27-24

Final: Florida 33-23

5) No. 15 Michigan State at Notre Dame
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Last Saturday, the Spartans limited Florida Atlantic to just one first down and 48 yards of total offense during a 44-0 victory.  Later that evening, the Fighting Irish were being much more generous in their game at Michigan.  For instance, Notre Dame allowed the Wolverines 80 yards and a touchdown within the last 30 seconds to pull off a come-from-ahead 35-31 loss.

Defense, however, isn’t Brian Kelly’s biggest problem.  Turnovers are.  The Irish have given the football away five times in each of their first two games, which helped negate offensive outputs in excess of 500 yards each time, leading directly to defeat.

It’s hard to go against Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio, who made that huge fake field goal call in last year’s meeting and is 3-1 against Notre Dame, and his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, who is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and taking good care of the football.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 5

The pick: Michigan State 24-23

Final: Notre Dame 31-13

6) Utah at Brigham Young
Sat., Sept. 17 — 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The only thing worse than Ute quarterback Jordan Wynn’s mechanics last week in the 17-14 or 23-14 loss at USC was the performance of the Pac-12 officials.  It doesn’t take a medically trained eye to tell that Wynn’s surgically repaired shoulder isn’t anywhere close to 100 percent (or at least he doesn’t fully trust it yet).

In any case, Utah needs Wynn to be on his game if it hopes to trade punches with BYU’s offense led by quarterback Jake Heaps, who was 22-of-38 for 192 yards and a touchdown (with two INTs) in last week’s 17-16 loss at Texas, despite no threat of a Cougar running game.

The earliest of the 87 meetings in the “Holy War” series will be tight.  The Cougars have a distinct edge in special teams, which will prove to be quite valuable.

Opening point spread: BYU by 6 1/2

The pick: BYU 26-24

Final: Utah 54-10

7) Washington at No. 11 Nebraska
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

They were supposedly playing the same Husky team, but the results were so vastly different.  Last September, Nebraska wiped out Washington, 56-21, piling up 533 yards of total offense and completely discombobulating Husky quarterback Jake Locker (4-of-20 for just 71 yards, with two INTs).  Such was not the case in a rematch three months later, when the Cornhuskers were nearly shutout in a 19-7 loss in the Holiday Bowl.

Both teams enter this rubber match at 2-0, following a pair of less-than-satisfying victories at home.  Washington’s wins over Eastern Washington (30-27) and Hawaii (40-32) haven’t answered many of the burning questions surrounding the team.  Nebraska’s victories over Chattanooga (40-7) and Fresno State (42-29) were equally inconclusive.

Sophomore Keith Price, the new Husky quarterback, has a bit of experience playing in a hostile environment.  He made his first collegiate start last season in the big rivalry game at Oregon.  His stats weren’t bad (14-of-28 for 127 yards and a touchdown), but they came within an ugly 53-16 loss.

If both teams perform somewhat up to their capabilities, which didn’t occur in either game last season, the home-team Huskers should prevail.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 18 1/2

The pick: Nebraska 31-20

Final: Nebraska 51-38

8)No. 18 West Virginia at Maryland
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ESPNU

Where has the Mountaineer running game disappeared to? Was that really West Virginia that was held to just 46 yards on 26 carries in the season opener versus Marshall?  Really?  Yikes.

The output improved slightly against Norfolk State the following week (102 yards on 33 carries), but that’s only because it couldn’t possibly get any worse.

That kind of meager output on the ground won’t allow the Mountaineers the opportunity to keep pace with the Terrapin offense that gobbled up 28 first downs and 499 total yards against Miami (Fla.), it’s only game so far this season.

Opening point spread: Maryland by 2

The pick: Maryland 32-28

Final: West Virginia 37-31

9) No. 21 Auburn at Clemson
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ABC

We play college fantasy football and the only thing more ridiculous than that is the fact that the Clemson defense is an option on our roster.  Games against the likes of Troy and Wofford are why we kept the Tigers around (yes, keeper league … I know, so sick).  But after allowing the Trojans to rack up 423 total yards, followed by the Terriers’ 399, Clemson’s defense is no longer amongst us.

Auburn’s defense is leaky too, but the wrong Tigers are favored in this one.  Everyone (including us last week) keeps waiting for the defending champs to have their streak snapped (17 consecutive wins), but they keep rising to the occasion.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4

The pick: Auburn 34-31

Final: Clemson 38-24

10) No. 24 Texas at UCLA
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The last time the Longhorns were the Longhorns was the last time they lined up against the Bruins on Sept. 25, 2010.  When that was all over and No. 7 Texas had absorbed an entirely improbable 34-12 loss to UCLA at home, the slippery slope was born and the Longhorns went on to drop six of their last eight.

Although the current campaign has Texas at 2-0 and back in the national rankings, there’s still rough going.  Garrett Gilbert has been sacked as the starting quarterback, in favor of youngsters Case McCoy and David Ash.

Things are worse in Westwood, where nothing of note has happened since the aforementioned upset in Austin.

In what might be a conference matchup in future years, the Longhorns will receive more fan support in the Rose Bowl than the Bruins.

Opening point spread: Texas by 3 1/2

The pick: Texas 26-17

Final: Texas 49-20

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Pittsburgh at Iowa
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ESPN2

Panther coach Todd Graham would have much preferred that the Hawkeyes didn’t get upended by Iowa State last Saturday in overtime.  With only unimpressive home wins over Buffalo (35-16) and Maine (35-29) under his belt, Graham can’t feel too good about hitting the road to play an angry Iowa squad.

Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri hasn’t been sharp executing the offense so far this season, but after watching what Iowa State’s Steele Jantz did last week, he’ll have high hopes for a breakthrough.

We just don’t think that’ll happen at Kinnick Stadium.  Sunseri will have to wait until the following week against Notre Dame’s generous secondary.

Opening point spread: Iowa by 3

The pick: Iowa 31-20

Final: Iowa 31-27

Presbyterian at California
Sat., Sept. 17 — 5:30 p.m. ET

Actually, you should definitely ignore this game.  It’s just that we can’t.

What in the world are the Golden Bears doing scheduling this sort of matchup?

The Blue Hose (yes, that’s their nickname) are on a roll, having beaten North Greenville, 38-21, last Saturday.  But that’s just their third victory since Nov. 1, 2008.

Opening point spread: N/A

The pick: California 45-13

Final: California 63-12

Week 3 record: 7-5
Total: 25-11

Auburn RB Roc Thomas officially granted release, Jax State bound

AUBURN, AL - SEPTEMBER 6: Running back Roc Thomas #9 of the Auburn Tigers runs the ball in for a touchdown as offensive linesman Jordan Diamond #76 of the Auburn Tigers blocks safety Forrest Hightower #12 of the San Jose State Spartans on September 6, 2014 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama. Auburn defeated San Jose State 59-13.  (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
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Auburn running back Roc Thomas will transfer, head coach Gus Malzahn announced Tuesday.

“Roc Thomas has asked for his release from Auburn and I have granted his request. We wish him nothing but the best moving forward,” Malzahn said in a statement.

Reports bubbled last week the former five-star running back would head to Jacksonville State, and this all but confirms them.

 A rising junior out of Oxford, Ala., Thomas garnered starts against Georgia and Alabama as a true freshman but finished the 2015 season fourth among Tigers running backs with 43 carries for 261 yards and one touchdown. He also caught 11 passes for 200 yards and a score.

Peyton Barber, first on the club with 237 carries a year ago, left for the NFL, but with spring ball now complete it appears Thomas did not like his chances for wrestling carries away from Jovon Robinson or Kerryon Johnson.

Report: Big 12 expansion, TV network on hold for 2016

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Thirty-five media members are expected to descend upon suburban Dallas this week for the annual gathering of Big 12 presidents and chancellors — more than three times the average number — and not because they’re excited to see whether Baker Mayfield gets another year of eligibility. Expansion is the first word off the lips everywhere from Provo to Storrs with numerous stops in between, but a report Tuesday said all these digital trees slain in devotion to the subject will die in vain.

According to Chip Brown of Horns Digest, the issue has already been decided and the Big 12 will stand pat — both on the membership and television network fronts — for 2016.

Brown writes:

“The bottom line is there is no consensus on any non-Power Five candidates to add, and the league’s primary TV partners – ESPN and Fox – aren’t exactly knocking down doors right now to start a conference network, the sources told HD.”

If the presidents haven’t even broken their proverbial bread yet, how could the issue already be decided? With 10 schools, only three are needed to block any movement, and Texas, TCU and Texas Tech were said to be against expansion heading into the meetings.

It’s also possible this report is a trial balloon of sorts, a shot across the bow at a specific group of people in the meeting room.

The only area change could happen, according to Brown, would be to add a championship game. The conference won the right to hold a title game without expanding during the NCAA Convention in January.

A conference championship game is believed to be worth an extra $2-3 million per year per school in television money.

Nick Saban calls satellite camps “the Wild, Wild West” in lengthy rant

Alabama football coach Nick Saban talks with the media, Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2014, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/AL.com, Vasha Hunt)
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Nick Saban‘s program will partake in satellite camps this summer.

Nick Saban hates satellite camps.

Alabama and its four national championships have done just fine without satellite camps, so it’s perfectly understandable why its head coach would find no use for them. It’s also understandable on a personal level, as coaches will now spend hundreds of hours more work in preparation of signing the same amount of players.

Saban expanded on those thoughts during the SEC’s spring meetings on Tuesday:

“What’s amazing to me is somebody didn’t stand up and say there’s going to be the unintended consequences of what you all are doing,” Saban said, via SEC Country.

He continued: “Anybody can have a camp now. If they have a prospect, they can have a camp and then you’re expected to go to that camp and then they can use you to promote their camp because Ohio State is coming, Alabama is coming, whoever else is coming. Somebody sponsors a camp, they pay them the money. What do they do with the money? And who makes sure the kid paid to go to the camp? I mean, this is the Wild Wild West at its best. There’s been no specific guidelines relative to how we’re managing and controlling this stuff. It’s happening outside our normal evaluation window, which means we’re taking time away from our players.

“Our players come back to school today. We start working and making sure that our players are doing the right things with our strength and conditioning coaches, our academic people, with the limited number of meetings that we’re allowed to have with them. We’re not going to be there because we’re going to be going someplace else to look at some other guy.”

He continued again: “All you’re doing is allowing all these other people that we spend all of our time at the NCAA saying, you can’t recruit through a third party. You can’t be involved with third-party people and that’s exactly what you’re doing, creating all these third parties that are going to get involved with the prospects and all that. And who gets exposed on that? I go to a camp and I’m talking to some guy I don’t know from Adam’s house cat and he’s representing some kid because he put the camp on, and then I’m in trouble for talking to this guy? And who even knows if the guy paid to go to the camp. Is the NCAA going to do that? I mean, we do that at our camp. We have people responsible. They’re called compliance folks. What kind of compliance people do we have at these camps?”

And he continued again: “I’m not blaming Jim Harbaugh. I’m not saying anything about it. I’m just saying it’s bad for college football. Jim Harbaugh can do anything he wants to do. I’m not saying anything bad about him, if he thinks that’s what’s best. There needs to be somebody who looks out for what’s best for the game, not what’s best for the Big Ten or not what’s best for the SEC or not what’s best for Jim Harbaugh, but what’s best for the college football. The integrity of the game. The coaches, the players and the people that play it. That’s bigger than all of this. That’s what somebody should do. Now, who is doing that? I don’t know because right now since we have the Power 5, everybody is politicking for what they want for their conference. That’s why I said there needs to be a college football commissioner.”

And to think, all that came after Saban didn’t want to talk about satellite camps.

South Carolina LB Skai Moore out for 2016 season

North Carolina v South Carolina
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The SEC is trotting its head coaches in front of the media today during the league’s spring meetings, and among the off-season talking points that will be abandoned when real football starts was a bit of real football news.

South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp revealed linebacker Skai Moore will miss the entire 2016 season after a herniated disc in his neck failed to heal on its own. Muschamp said Moore aggravated the injury suffered during the 2015 season while in the weight room prepping for spring practice.

“He’ll be fine. This is not a career-threatening situation,” Muschamp said, via The State. “This is a very common procedure for herniated disc. It’s unfortunate that it didn’t heal on its own.”

Muschamp said Moore will redshirt this fall and return as a fifth-year senior in 2017.

“We are disappointed for Skai, but we need to support him right now,” Muschamp said. “He will graduate in the spring. It’s great he gets to come back and graduate and play his senior year.”

Moore led the Gamecocks in tackles each of the past three seasons, rising from 56 to 93 to 111 as a junior. He’ll graduate this spring, and considered going pro after the 2015 season. Which leads one to wonder how likely it is Moore will go two more seasons without getting paid to play football.