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Predictions 101 – Week 3

The Swami AP

Against all odds, we’re still rolling.  Our friends in the Nevada desert remain impressed.  In Week 2, we went 9-2-1 versus “the number” and 9-3 straight-up.

For the young season, we’re sitting at 19-3-1 (one game wasn’t on the board) and 18-6.

That’s all fine and dandy.  But it’s also in the past.  We kind of feel like Oklahoma. Something bad is about to happen.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Sept. 15 thru Sat., Sept. 17)

1) No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State
Sat., Sept. 17 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Taking Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern apart by a combined score of 96-10 is one thing.  Hosting the top-ranked team in the nation is entirely another.

Quarterback E.J. Manuel is in the spotlight for the Seminole upset effort, but he’ll need to receive a great deal of support from the Florida State running game, which has yet to develop an identity.

Expect the Seminole defense to offer much more resistance to Landry Jones and his high-tempo offense this time around.  Last year, the Sooner quarterback did as he pleased versus FSU, completing 30-of-40 for 380 yards and four scores, but that was in Norman where the home team has won 37 straight.  Road games have been much more of a challenge for the Sooners, who are just 3-5 with Jones taking the snaps.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 3

The pick: Florida State 28-24

Final: Oklahoma 23-13

2) No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State
Thurs., Sept. 15 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The week-prior activity involving both teams is significantly unequal.  While the Bulldogs were slugging it out in a 41-34 loss at Auburn, the Bayou Bengals were coasting to a 49-3 victory at home over Northwestern State.

Since many of its starters didn’t play in the second half against the Demons, LSU will be much more rested than Mississippi State, which also may be without a pair of starting offensive linemen who picked up injuries at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

We figure that since the Tigers were able to handle Oregon’s supped spread offense, they’ll be able to keep tabs on Mississippi State’s version of the spread.

When they switch sides, LSU’s rugged ground attack, featuring Michael Ford and Spencer Ware, should flourish against the Bulldogs’ accommodating run defense.

Opening point spread: LSU by 4 1/2

The pick: LSU 31-21

Final: LSU 19-6

3) No. 17 Ohio State at Miami (Fla.)
Sat., Sept. 17 — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

This clash of football programs facing impending doom and shackled with various suspension calendars is being called the “Ineligi Bowl.”  We want t-shirts.

It’s a second opener of sorts for the Hurricanes, since they had last week off and are welcoming back a host of previously suspended players, including quarterback Jacory Harris and linebacker Sean Spence.

Ohio State, which is getting some players back from two-game suspensions while others remain on the shelf, nearly got upset by Toledo last week.  If not for the Rockets’ self-destructive nature, the Buckeyes could have very easily dropped their first game to an in-state opponent since 1921.

The question is if that close call versus Toledo merely serves notice of what needs to be fixed or if it seriously shines light on the current frailties associated to the program.

Opening point spread: Miami by 3

The pick: Miami 24-17

Final: Miami 24-6

4) Tennessee at No. 16 Florida
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Remember when this was one of the main event attractions in the SEC?  With the help of new blood in each corner, it’ll get back there in a couple years.

We’re pleased to see Charlie Weis back doing the sort of stuff that he was born to do.  It doesn’t hurt to have quarterback John Brantley and running backs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps to work with, but you gotta give the guy credit.

Tennessee’s super sophomore trio of quarterback Tyler Bray and wideouts Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers has our attention as well, and Derek Dooley has done an admirable job of cleaning up the mess left behind by Lane Kiffin, but there’s still much work to be done.

The Vols won’t be able to break their losing streak against the Gators, especially this year in Gainesville.  The slide will stretch to seven games.

Opening point spread: Florida by 8 1/2

The pick: Florida 27-24

Final: Florida 33-23

5) No. 15 Michigan State at Notre Dame
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Last Saturday, the Spartans limited Florida Atlantic to just one first down and 48 yards of total offense during a 44-0 victory.  Later that evening, the Fighting Irish were being much more generous in their game at Michigan.  For instance, Notre Dame allowed the Wolverines 80 yards and a touchdown within the last 30 seconds to pull off a come-from-ahead 35-31 loss.

Defense, however, isn’t Brian Kelly’s biggest problem.  Turnovers are.  The Irish have given the football away five times in each of their first two games, which helped negate offensive outputs in excess of 500 yards each time, leading directly to defeat.

It’s hard to go against Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio, who made that huge fake field goal call in last year’s meeting and is 3-1 against Notre Dame, and his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, who is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and taking good care of the football.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 5

The pick: Michigan State 24-23

Final: Notre Dame 31-13

6) Utah at Brigham Young
Sat., Sept. 17 — 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The only thing worse than Ute quarterback Jordan Wynn’s mechanics last week in the 17-14 or 23-14 loss at USC was the performance of the Pac-12 officials.  It doesn’t take a medically trained eye to tell that Wynn’s surgically repaired shoulder isn’t anywhere close to 100 percent (or at least he doesn’t fully trust it yet).

In any case, Utah needs Wynn to be on his game if it hopes to trade punches with BYU’s offense led by quarterback Jake Heaps, who was 22-of-38 for 192 yards and a touchdown (with two INTs) in last week’s 17-16 loss at Texas, despite no threat of a Cougar running game.

The earliest of the 87 meetings in the “Holy War” series will be tight.  The Cougars have a distinct edge in special teams, which will prove to be quite valuable.

Opening point spread: BYU by 6 1/2

The pick: BYU 26-24

Final: Utah 54-10

7) Washington at No. 11 Nebraska
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

They were supposedly playing the same Husky team, but the results were so vastly different.  Last September, Nebraska wiped out Washington, 56-21, piling up 533 yards of total offense and completely discombobulating Husky quarterback Jake Locker (4-of-20 for just 71 yards, with two INTs).  Such was not the case in a rematch three months later, when the Cornhuskers were nearly shutout in a 19-7 loss in the Holiday Bowl.

Both teams enter this rubber match at 2-0, following a pair of less-than-satisfying victories at home.  Washington’s wins over Eastern Washington (30-27) and Hawaii (40-32) haven’t answered many of the burning questions surrounding the team.  Nebraska’s victories over Chattanooga (40-7) and Fresno State (42-29) were equally inconclusive.

Sophomore Keith Price, the new Husky quarterback, has a bit of experience playing in a hostile environment.  He made his first collegiate start last season in the big rivalry game at Oregon.  His stats weren’t bad (14-of-28 for 127 yards and a touchdown), but they came within an ugly 53-16 loss.

If both teams perform somewhat up to their capabilities, which didn’t occur in either game last season, the home-team Huskers should prevail.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 18 1/2

The pick: Nebraska 31-20

Final: Nebraska 51-38

8)No. 18 West Virginia at Maryland
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ESPNU

Where has the Mountaineer running game disappeared to? Was that really West Virginia that was held to just 46 yards on 26 carries in the season opener versus Marshall?  Really?  Yikes.

The output improved slightly against Norfolk State the following week (102 yards on 33 carries), but that’s only because it couldn’t possibly get any worse.

That kind of meager output on the ground won’t allow the Mountaineers the opportunity to keep pace with the Terrapin offense that gobbled up 28 first downs and 499 total yards against Miami (Fla.), it’s only game so far this season.

Opening point spread: Maryland by 2

The pick: Maryland 32-28

Final: West Virginia 37-31

9) No. 21 Auburn at Clemson
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ABC

We play college fantasy football and the only thing more ridiculous than that is the fact that the Clemson defense is an option on our roster.  Games against the likes of Troy and Wofford are why we kept the Tigers around (yes, keeper league … I know, so sick).  But after allowing the Trojans to rack up 423 total yards, followed by the Terriers’ 399, Clemson’s defense is no longer amongst us.

Auburn’s defense is leaky too, but the wrong Tigers are favored in this one.  Everyone (including us last week) keeps waiting for the defending champs to have their streak snapped (17 consecutive wins), but they keep rising to the occasion.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4

The pick: Auburn 34-31

Final: Clemson 38-24

10) No. 24 Texas at UCLA
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The last time the Longhorns were the Longhorns was the last time they lined up against the Bruins on Sept. 25, 2010.  When that was all over and No. 7 Texas had absorbed an entirely improbable 34-12 loss to UCLA at home, the slippery slope was born and the Longhorns went on to drop six of their last eight.

Although the current campaign has Texas at 2-0 and back in the national rankings, there’s still rough going.  Garrett Gilbert has been sacked as the starting quarterback, in favor of youngsters Case McCoy and David Ash.

Things are worse in Westwood, where nothing of note has happened since the aforementioned upset in Austin.

In what might be a conference matchup in future years, the Longhorns will receive more fan support in the Rose Bowl than the Bruins.

Opening point spread: Texas by 3 1/2

The pick: Texas 26-17

Final: Texas 49-20

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Pittsburgh at Iowa
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ESPN2

Panther coach Todd Graham would have much preferred that the Hawkeyes didn’t get upended by Iowa State last Saturday in overtime.  With only unimpressive home wins over Buffalo (35-16) and Maine (35-29) under his belt, Graham can’t feel too good about hitting the road to play an angry Iowa squad.

Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri hasn’t been sharp executing the offense so far this season, but after watching what Iowa State’s Steele Jantz did last week, he’ll have high hopes for a breakthrough.

We just don’t think that’ll happen at Kinnick Stadium.  Sunseri will have to wait until the following week against Notre Dame’s generous secondary.

Opening point spread: Iowa by 3

The pick: Iowa 31-20

Final: Iowa 31-27

Presbyterian at California
Sat., Sept. 17 — 5:30 p.m. ET

Actually, you should definitely ignore this game.  It’s just that we can’t.

What in the world are the Golden Bears doing scheduling this sort of matchup?

The Blue Hose (yes, that’s their nickname) are on a roll, having beaten North Greenville, 38-21, last Saturday.  But that’s just their third victory since Nov. 1, 2008.

Opening point spread: N/A

The pick: California 45-13

Final: California 63-12

Week 3 record: 7-5
Total: 25-11

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35 Responses to “Predictions 101 – Week 3”
  1. southernpatriots says: Sep 14, 2011 1:49 PM

    Hopefully, we will see the LSU team prepared for this game on a short week. They must be looking at Mississippi State and not ahead to keep their long win streak going. This is a good game to give the offense more game experience and the defense a chance to show its ability.

    Had better not take anything or any game for granted in the SEC West. We don’t think they will. We’re not good at score predictions, but we offer 42 – 24 LSU.

  2. freidasboss says: Sep 14, 2011 1:56 PM

    FSU’s best chance at a a win is if they convince OU that this is a bowl game…

  3. southernpatriots says: Sep 14, 2011 2:18 PM

    freidasboss: Now that’s witty and funny! Thank you. (who are the two nuts giving thumbs down to wit and humor, must be someone who does not have wit nor humor!)

  4. blakebuchanan87 says: Sep 14, 2011 2:19 PM

    Best part of this post–the automatic turning of your number eight into a smiley(it confused me for a second). The worst part: too many great games on a weekend before a Monday med school test. Life choices are sure crimping my style.

  5. boisestatewhodat says: Sep 14, 2011 2:35 PM

    Boise State 51…Toledo 3. Que the strength of schedule silliness but remember…Toledo gave Ohio State all they could handle last week.

  6. WingT says: Sep 14, 2011 2:40 PM

    @John Tamanaha
    You did a fantastic job over the past 2 weeks with your predictions – the success has obviously gone to your head with your week 3 prognostications :)

    No way that FSU beats OU
    Notre Dame will pound Michigan St
    West “fornicating” Virginia will beat the Terps
    and finally tOSU pounds the Miami Hurricanes

  7. freidasboss says: Sep 14, 2011 3:17 PM

    SouthernPats
    Thank you sir

    It was probably Deb. Just kidding

  8. sportsdrenched.com says: Sep 14, 2011 3:21 PM

    The only thing that sucks about going to a game…is not being able to lay on the couch and watch all the other games.

    I think the Sooners winl at Doak Campbell. I’ll DVR this game and watch it while the Chiefs are losing on Sunday.

  9. stoopwitzer says: Sep 14, 2011 4:11 PM

    @freidasboss

    last time FSU tried that line of thinking OU won a national championship ;-)

    still thought that comment was hilarious though.

  10. thefiesty1 says: Sep 14, 2011 5:40 PM

    Decent picks, but I don’t think you gave the two wonder boys at Texas enough credit and UCLA is not very good. Pay back for last year’s debacle with an OC that actually knows how to call a game. 34-15.

  11. floridacock says: Sep 14, 2011 6:08 PM

    PC Blue Hose will ROLL!!!!

  12. soonerrlater says: Sep 14, 2011 6:11 PM

    I’m for the Sooners but I agree with the pick. They’ve shown too many times over the last few years that they can’t defeat a top 10 team on the road. They’ll have to prove that they can win this game…I can’t predict it. FSU 38 OU 35

  13. paulbrownsrevenge says: Sep 14, 2011 6:36 PM

    @boisestatewhodat

    Yea and they’ll be worn out from that great game versus OSU, but who did Boise play last week? Toledo is a better team than people think, favored to win the MAC. OSU was missing John Simon, Nathan Williams, Travis Howard, Corey Brown(both of them), and the other suspended players whom all are STARTERS! thats 5 starters from the defense.

    Boise plays cupcakes, and even if they go undefeated they won’t get a title shot. The Georgia win won’t look so good once they lose 4 or 5 more games.

  14. bgnormals says: Sep 14, 2011 8:05 PM

    I live in MAC country. I’m a BGSU fan and have seen the Toledo Rockets play. Look for this game to be close and I wouldn’t be surprised if Toledo beats Boise.

  15. alligatorsnapper says: Sep 14, 2011 8:08 PM

    bgnormals: There is an old saying: “From your mouth to God’s ears! Let it be so.

  16. bgnormals says: Sep 14, 2011 8:38 PM

    Pittsburgh went into the Glass Bowl ranked 9th not be many years ago and left with a loss. This Rocket team is better then that one. They played Boise tough last year before they started to turn the ball over.

  17. steelersandladyboysfan says: Sep 14, 2011 11:45 PM

    Love UCF getting 5, disagree about Tenn covering, I think the Gators roll big there.

    offshore books have Cal -42.5

  18. skf727 says: Sep 15, 2011 8:12 AM

    OU is better than they were last year, EJ Manuel is a step down from Ponder. FSU still is weak at the skill positions on offense.

    OU wins this going away.

  19. florida727 says: Sep 15, 2011 11:46 AM

    Combine John Tamanaha’s “Predictions 101″ and John Taylor’s “The Fifth Quarter” and you can save yourself a lot of wasted time reading other articles. One let’s you know what’s coming and what to watch for and why, and the other one highlights all the key games that took place, and what happened that was worth noting. Between the two of you guys, what you’re providing to all college football fans is incredible.

    Keep up the great work, gentlemen. It is appreciated.

  20. quarterhead says: Sep 15, 2011 2:56 PM

    Shouldn’t there be a little consideration that OU has had 2 weeks to prepare and FSU has no running game. You give Stoops 2 weeks to prepare for a one-dimensional offense? I think Manuel will be on his back all day long. What does anyone have to say about ASU/ILLINI game?

  21. dkhhuey says: Sep 15, 2011 3:49 PM

    As long as Bauserman is our starting QB – OSU has no chance to win big games! If Fickell continues to be loyal to this guy then we are in for a very long season, starting with Miami. They will crush Joe Overthrow all day long.

  22. drexelvol says: Sep 15, 2011 4:02 PM

    I don’t get how notre dame is favored against Michigan St. nd is 0-2 and has zero defense.

  23. paulbrownsrevenge says: Sep 15, 2011 6:38 PM

    Notre dame has a stout front 7, but their secondary has been their achilles heel for over a decade. Michigan State hasn’t been tested, thats why they’ll go down this week. Notre Dame has gave away 2 games in a row. They’ll cut down the turnovers, and win. Rees is going to be a very good QB.

  24. southernpatriots says: Sep 15, 2011 7:06 PM

    dkhhuey: Our hearts hurt for you. We completely understand what you and true tOSU fans are going through. We went through a similar thing a decade or so ago and probably would be going through that at this moment if the starting quarterback had not broken curfew and lead the team to a bar where a fight broke out. Coach Les Miles (and we love and appreciate him so very much!), an Ohio native errs on the side of loyalty and maybe Coach Fickell is like that also. We are learning that some coaches are that way. Was Fickell trained the legedary coach Bo Schembechler, the coach and mentor of our Coach Les Miles? It seems they have the same type of loyalty penchant, if not.

    drexelvol: That type of favoritism we have witnessed for decades now. Maybe those doing the favoritism in the upcoming game against Michigan State are the same ones that rank Notre Dame in the top 25, sometimes in the top 15 or 20 in pre-season rankings only to drop them year after year?

    LSU plays Mississippi State tonight. M State has the best rushing offense in the SEC and LSU has the best rushing defense in the SEC. Could not set up a better contest on paper than that. LSU has won past 11 meetings and 17 of last 18. But, all SEC games are dangerous and hopefully LSU will not be looking beyond State to WVA. Geaux Tigers!

  25. dkhhuey says: Sep 15, 2011 11:07 PM

    @southern – Tressel drove me nuts a couple of times with that – when he stuck with Justin Zwick over Troy Smith, and Todd Boeckman over Terrelle Pryor. I get the reasoning and logic behind it but I’ve really never liked it. Getting the job by default of being a non starter the longest really doesn’t sound like a solid way to determine a starter – especially since that seniority does not equate to a significant amount of playing experience over the freshman. Braxton is the future of the Buckeyes, not Bauserman, especially given the fact that this is pretty much a throw away season! I was hoping Fickell had a more progressive and aggressive coaching mentality but I am smelling a bunch of Tressel logic here!

    As always – your insight and comments are thoroughly appreciated!!!

    Looks as though LSU is getting control of the Miss State game! Nicely done

  26. southernpatriots says: Sep 15, 2011 11:44 PM

    dkhhuey: We do understand and have lived it as well. Our QB tonight would not be the QB if Miles had his “druthers” (as we call them down here), but his choice of QB is fighting (legally) for his future and possible freedom for accusations agasinst him for fighting (physically).

    This SEC is hard nosed football. The commentators tonight said a given truth. If you make it through the SEC schedule and win the championship you are preferred for the BCS National Championship. Past history indicates it is a given.

    We had some anxiety the first half. By the third quarter, as with the Oregon game, LSU began to make its dominance on the line apparent. Conditioninng in high humidity, high temperature summers, 2 a days in August…it is making me ill to write about it…it is (according to players)….”hell”. They get through “hell” and that prepares them well for the season. We all here feel relieved as well as happy they won.

    When A & M joins the SEC, I think out of the gate we will make some big signs and bring them to the game with LSU: “Welcome to the SEC, welcome to pain!” We saw some players from both teams bent over with pain, grimacing when they sat down…trench warfare. That’s the SEC. Well, not to take it for granted, but LSU has now won 12 straight from Mississippi State and about 18 of the last 19 games.

    Fickell will eventually be his own man, but for now he will generally continue the style and coaching technique of Tressel. Tressell knows football and was/is a very good coach. Tressell’s handprint will be on the program for some years yet. That has its good points and some bad as well, we guess.

    Thank you for being a faithful fan, for your encouragement, and your contributions to this avenue of fun, entertainment, and information that we know as College Football Talk.

  27. florida727 says: Sep 16, 2011 8:44 AM

    Well, your predictions are off to a good start with LSU’s dominating win, but you did underestimate their defense in your final score. MSU never sniffed the end zone :)

  28. southernpatriots says: Sep 16, 2011 10:20 AM

    florida727: You are most kind. Our predictions on who will win is often correct, but scores? We are always so far off that it is ridiculous. It is a good thing we don’t gamble….ha.

    I was pushing for a lower score but I was outvoted, but I would have been very wrong also. It was definitely a defensive game, old smash mouth SEC football. I did not recognize the intensity of the play until I saw the replay and could look intently at the line play, secondary, etc. The rest of the family ran out of popcorn.

    Now that is a funny story….we are addicted to Orville Reddenbacker’s Gourmet Popping Corn. We purchased several jars of it to replenish our stash. We still had about a 1/3 of a jar, but we knew we needed more for the first home game. We popped it in a Whirley Pop, then a hot air popper than an old but trusted thick bottom pot and each time we did the popcorn came out almost soggy and not crisp. My brother told us all that something was wrong with the popcorn so he telephoned Orville/ConAgra. When he gave them the UPC and code number they were strangely quiet. Then a supervisor came on the phone.

    Our brother was told that they were having alot of trouble with whole shipment that was part of. Apparently, the delivery truck was caught in the 17 inch deluge from Tropical Storm Lee and was stranded on a flooded road for that week. Somehow, no one quite knows how, but somehow the popcorn in the sealed jars of Orville Reddenbacher Gourmet Popping Corn absorbed moisture!

    They are replacing our popcorn but meanwhile we ran out of our old stash and did not have enough for the game. They did not want to purchase any more locally for the likelihood it was also compromised. So we all await the shipment from Nebraska. We feel very strange not having popcorn for the televised games….ha!

  29. dkhhuey says: Sep 16, 2011 2:05 PM

    @southern – funny, as an alumni, I couldn’t be happier to see Luke and Mike Vrabel back on the sidelines at OSU. I was at the Rosebowl game the day they dominated the line of scrimmage against ASU. With Finkes, those three were just plain scary good! I love the energy he is bringing to the program! Having said all of that – I cannot deny that I am very torn right now regarding next year – given all of the buzz around the potential to snag Urban Meyer. Handing Urban the keys to the OSU football machine just has such a phenomenal potential that it is next to impossible to not want that to happen!

  30. southernpatriots says: Sep 16, 2011 3:19 PM

    dkhhuey: Seeing Luke and Mike Vrabel back at OSU gives a true fan a feeling on continuity and thus comfort. Urban Meyer is a great coach. Given a really good support staff, Meyer would help greatly with recruiting some of the best college athletes–which come from the South. He also knows what it takes to go to the next level.

    If Meyer does have his health back, his inspiration back, his daughters at least not pressuring him to stay retired, and is willing to come to tOSU for multi-millions, he would be a great adversary for any SEC team if OSU would be able to get back to the championship game.

  31. dkhhuey says: Sep 18, 2011 9:48 PM

    Well – as predicted, Fickell came out with Joe Overthrow and stuck with him and as predicted – he SUCKED and we got our a$$es kicked. The defense settled down a bit but when its 3 and outs all night long – you’re going to get bet up and tired. Going to be a very long season!!!

  32. southernpatriots says: Sep 18, 2011 10:05 PM

    JT:
    Ben:
    dkhhuey:
    and all:

    It is not hard to be discouraged, but resist the temptation. Even in the midst of a “very long season” there can be moments of brilliance by the team and a revelation on the part of the coaching staff. We definitely understand, having lived there for what seemed to be decades, and we sympathize. Your team is going to come out of this sooner, rather than later.

  33. southernpatriots says: Sep 19, 2011 8:07 AM

    Wing T:

    You are a winner! You picked the winners from Week 3:

    No way that FSU beats OU
    Notre Dame will pound Michigan St
    West “fornicating” Virginia will beat the Terps
    and finally tOSU pounds the Miami

    Only miss there was tOSU, but we picked them also. Get ready and pick week 4. Can you add scores this week? You’re at 75% and that is great prognostications!

  34. sierra1004 says: Sep 22, 2011 9:16 AM

    I luv Predictions 10. John you are the best

  35. WingT says: Sep 22, 2011 4:25 PM

    Thanks SouthernPats….you are too kind….I have no clue about picking the score, but I will try

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