The Swami

Predictions 101 – Week 3

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Against all odds, we’re still rolling.  Our friends in the Nevada desert remain impressed.  In Week 2, we went 9-2-1 versus “the number” and 9-3 straight-up.

For the young season, we’re sitting at 19-3-1 (one game wasn’t on the board) and 18-6.

That’s all fine and dandy.  But it’s also in the past.  We kind of feel like Oklahoma. Something bad is about to happen.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Sept. 15 thru Sat., Sept. 17)

1) No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State
Sat., Sept. 17 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Taking Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern apart by a combined score of 96-10 is one thing.  Hosting the top-ranked team in the nation is entirely another.

Quarterback E.J. Manuel is in the spotlight for the Seminole upset effort, but he’ll need to receive a great deal of support from the Florida State running game, which has yet to develop an identity.

Expect the Seminole defense to offer much more resistance to Landry Jones and his high-tempo offense this time around.  Last year, the Sooner quarterback did as he pleased versus FSU, completing 30-of-40 for 380 yards and four scores, but that was in Norman where the home team has won 37 straight.  Road games have been much more of a challenge for the Sooners, who are just 3-5 with Jones taking the snaps.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 3

The pick: Florida State 28-24

Final: Oklahoma 23-13

2) No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State
Thurs., Sept. 15 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The week-prior activity involving both teams is significantly unequal.  While the Bulldogs were slugging it out in a 41-34 loss at Auburn, the Bayou Bengals were coasting to a 49-3 victory at home over Northwestern State.

Since many of its starters didn’t play in the second half against the Demons, LSU will be much more rested than Mississippi State, which also may be without a pair of starting offensive linemen who picked up injuries at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

We figure that since the Tigers were able to handle Oregon’s supped spread offense, they’ll be able to keep tabs on Mississippi State’s version of the spread.

When they switch sides, LSU’s rugged ground attack, featuring Michael Ford and Spencer Ware, should flourish against the Bulldogs’ accommodating run defense.

Opening point spread: LSU by 4 1/2

The pick: LSU 31-21

Final: LSU 19-6

3) No. 17 Ohio State at Miami (Fla.)
Sat., Sept. 17 — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

This clash of football programs facing impending doom and shackled with various suspension calendars is being called the “Ineligi Bowl.”  We want t-shirts.

It’s a second opener of sorts for the Hurricanes, since they had last week off and are welcoming back a host of previously suspended players, including quarterback Jacory Harris and linebacker Sean Spence.

Ohio State, which is getting some players back from two-game suspensions while others remain on the shelf, nearly got upset by Toledo last week.  If not for the Rockets’ self-destructive nature, the Buckeyes could have very easily dropped their first game to an in-state opponent since 1921.

The question is if that close call versus Toledo merely serves notice of what needs to be fixed or if it seriously shines light on the current frailties associated to the program.

Opening point spread: Miami by 3

The pick: Miami 24-17

Final: Miami 24-6

4) Tennessee at No. 16 Florida
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Remember when this was one of the main event attractions in the SEC?  With the help of new blood in each corner, it’ll get back there in a couple years.

We’re pleased to see Charlie Weis back doing the sort of stuff that he was born to do.  It doesn’t hurt to have quarterback John Brantley and running backs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps to work with, but you gotta give the guy credit.

Tennessee’s super sophomore trio of quarterback Tyler Bray and wideouts Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers has our attention as well, and Derek Dooley has done an admirable job of cleaning up the mess left behind by Lane Kiffin, but there’s still much work to be done.

The Vols won’t be able to break their losing streak against the Gators, especially this year in Gainesville.  The slide will stretch to seven games.

Opening point spread: Florida by 8 1/2

The pick: Florida 27-24

Final: Florida 33-23

5) No. 15 Michigan State at Notre Dame
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Last Saturday, the Spartans limited Florida Atlantic to just one first down and 48 yards of total offense during a 44-0 victory.  Later that evening, the Fighting Irish were being much more generous in their game at Michigan.  For instance, Notre Dame allowed the Wolverines 80 yards and a touchdown within the last 30 seconds to pull off a come-from-ahead 35-31 loss.

Defense, however, isn’t Brian Kelly’s biggest problem.  Turnovers are.  The Irish have given the football away five times in each of their first two games, which helped negate offensive outputs in excess of 500 yards each time, leading directly to defeat.

It’s hard to go against Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio, who made that huge fake field goal call in last year’s meeting and is 3-1 against Notre Dame, and his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, who is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and taking good care of the football.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 5

The pick: Michigan State 24-23

Final: Notre Dame 31-13

6) Utah at Brigham Young
Sat., Sept. 17 — 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The only thing worse than Ute quarterback Jordan Wynn’s mechanics last week in the 17-14 or 23-14 loss at USC was the performance of the Pac-12 officials.  It doesn’t take a medically trained eye to tell that Wynn’s surgically repaired shoulder isn’t anywhere close to 100 percent (or at least he doesn’t fully trust it yet).

In any case, Utah needs Wynn to be on his game if it hopes to trade punches with BYU’s offense led by quarterback Jake Heaps, who was 22-of-38 for 192 yards and a touchdown (with two INTs) in last week’s 17-16 loss at Texas, despite no threat of a Cougar running game.

The earliest of the 87 meetings in the “Holy War” series will be tight.  The Cougars have a distinct edge in special teams, which will prove to be quite valuable.

Opening point spread: BYU by 6 1/2

The pick: BYU 26-24

Final: Utah 54-10

7) Washington at No. 11 Nebraska
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

They were supposedly playing the same Husky team, but the results were so vastly different.  Last September, Nebraska wiped out Washington, 56-21, piling up 533 yards of total offense and completely discombobulating Husky quarterback Jake Locker (4-of-20 for just 71 yards, with two INTs).  Such was not the case in a rematch three months later, when the Cornhuskers were nearly shutout in a 19-7 loss in the Holiday Bowl.

Both teams enter this rubber match at 2-0, following a pair of less-than-satisfying victories at home.  Washington’s wins over Eastern Washington (30-27) and Hawaii (40-32) haven’t answered many of the burning questions surrounding the team.  Nebraska’s victories over Chattanooga (40-7) and Fresno State (42-29) were equally inconclusive.

Sophomore Keith Price, the new Husky quarterback, has a bit of experience playing in a hostile environment.  He made his first collegiate start last season in the big rivalry game at Oregon.  His stats weren’t bad (14-of-28 for 127 yards and a touchdown), but they came within an ugly 53-16 loss.

If both teams perform somewhat up to their capabilities, which didn’t occur in either game last season, the home-team Huskers should prevail.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 18 1/2

The pick: Nebraska 31-20

Final: Nebraska 51-38

8)No. 18 West Virginia at Maryland
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ESPNU

Where has the Mountaineer running game disappeared to? Was that really West Virginia that was held to just 46 yards on 26 carries in the season opener versus Marshall?  Really?  Yikes.

The output improved slightly against Norfolk State the following week (102 yards on 33 carries), but that’s only because it couldn’t possibly get any worse.

That kind of meager output on the ground won’t allow the Mountaineers the opportunity to keep pace with the Terrapin offense that gobbled up 28 first downs and 499 total yards against Miami (Fla.), it’s only game so far this season.

Opening point spread: Maryland by 2

The pick: Maryland 32-28

Final: West Virginia 37-31

9) No. 21 Auburn at Clemson
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ABC

We play college fantasy football and the only thing more ridiculous than that is the fact that the Clemson defense is an option on our roster.  Games against the likes of Troy and Wofford are why we kept the Tigers around (yes, keeper league … I know, so sick).  But after allowing the Trojans to rack up 423 total yards, followed by the Terriers’ 399, Clemson’s defense is no longer amongst us.

Auburn’s defense is leaky too, but the wrong Tigers are favored in this one.  Everyone (including us last week) keeps waiting for the defending champs to have their streak snapped (17 consecutive wins), but they keep rising to the occasion.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4

The pick: Auburn 34-31

Final: Clemson 38-24

10) No. 24 Texas at UCLA
Sat., Sept. 17 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The last time the Longhorns were the Longhorns was the last time they lined up against the Bruins on Sept. 25, 2010.  When that was all over and No. 7 Texas had absorbed an entirely improbable 34-12 loss to UCLA at home, the slippery slope was born and the Longhorns went on to drop six of their last eight.

Although the current campaign has Texas at 2-0 and back in the national rankings, there’s still rough going.  Garrett Gilbert has been sacked as the starting quarterback, in favor of youngsters Case McCoy and David Ash.

Things are worse in Westwood, where nothing of note has happened since the aforementioned upset in Austin.

In what might be a conference matchup in future years, the Longhorns will receive more fan support in the Rose Bowl than the Bruins.

Opening point spread: Texas by 3 1/2

The pick: Texas 26-17

Final: Texas 49-20

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Pittsburgh at Iowa
Sat., Sept. 17 — noon ET, ESPN2

Panther coach Todd Graham would have much preferred that the Hawkeyes didn’t get upended by Iowa State last Saturday in overtime.  With only unimpressive home wins over Buffalo (35-16) and Maine (35-29) under his belt, Graham can’t feel too good about hitting the road to play an angry Iowa squad.

Pitt quarterback Tino Sunseri hasn’t been sharp executing the offense so far this season, but after watching what Iowa State’s Steele Jantz did last week, he’ll have high hopes for a breakthrough.

We just don’t think that’ll happen at Kinnick Stadium.  Sunseri will have to wait until the following week against Notre Dame’s generous secondary.

Opening point spread: Iowa by 3

The pick: Iowa 31-20

Final: Iowa 31-27

Presbyterian at California
Sat., Sept. 17 — 5:30 p.m. ET

Actually, you should definitely ignore this game.  It’s just that we can’t.

What in the world are the Golden Bears doing scheduling this sort of matchup?

The Blue Hose (yes, that’s their nickname) are on a roll, having beaten North Greenville, 38-21, last Saturday.  But that’s just their third victory since Nov. 1, 2008.

Opening point spread: N/A

The pick: California 45-13

Final: California 63-12

Week 3 record: 7-5
Total: 25-11

Penn State DT Antoine White announces transfer to Albany

STATE COLLEGE, PA - SEPTEMBER 19:  Chris Laviano #5 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights is pressured by Antoine White #93 of the Penn State Nittany Lions in the second half during the game on September 19, 2015 at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
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Penn State defensive tackle Antoine White will plug gaps and chase passers in a new destination next season. White revealed he will leave Happy Valley to play for Albany in 2017. As a redshirt sophomore in 2016, White would lose a year of eligibility if he left for an FBS school.

White announced the transfer on his Twitter account.

“My past 3 years at Penn State have been filled with so many great experiences as a student-athlete, in school, sports, as well as in life,” White wrote.

“I am forever grateful for all of these and I have built relationships that I know will last a life time.”

White collected 17 tackles with 1.5 sacks as a sophomore this fall. He was a second-team tackle for Penn State’s Big Ten championship squad in 2016 and was expected to assume the same role next season.

Cal hires Eastern Washington head coach Beau Baldwin as offensive coordinator

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 06:  Head coach Beau Baldwin of the Eastern Washington Eagles looks on against the Washington Huskies on September 6, 2014 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. The Huskies defeated the Eagles 59-52.  (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
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New Cal head coach Justin Wilcox‘s first hire is a big one.

Eastern Washington head coach Beau Baldwin has left his red field of fire to become the offensive coordinator in Berkeley. “This one is right, it’s an incredible opportunity,” Baldwin said, via the Spokane Spokesman-Review.

He leaves Eastern Washington with an 85-32 record, including six FCS playoffs appearances with four trips to the FCS semifinals and a national championship in 2010. Baldwin’s 2016 Eastern Washington team finished 12-2, won the Big Sky championship and reached the FCS semifinals.

Baldwin, of course, isn’t being hired for his head coaching acumen. He’s being brought to Berkeley to move the ball and score points — and on that front Baldwin is one of the best in college football. Eastern Washington finished the season ranked among the top three in FCS in total offense (529.6 yards per game), passing offense (401 yards per game), third down conversions (52.1 percent), completion percentage (67.9), passing efficiency (168.2) and scoring offense (42.4 points per game).

He’ll inherit an offense that finished tied for 54th in yards per play, 22nd in scoring and 51st in passing efficiency running Sonny Dykes‘s Air Raid system.

Baldwin joins a growing group of FCS or Group of 5 coaches leaving head coaching spots to become Power 5 coordinators, following Dan Enos (Central Michigan to Arkansas), Joe Moorhead (Fordham to Penn State) and Pete Lembo (Ball State to Maryland). Baldwin also interviewed for the Nevada head coaching job that ultimately went to Jay Norvell.

Grueling workouts put multiple Oregon players in hospital, per report

TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 28:  Head Coach Willie Taggart walks the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Miami Hurricanes on September 28, 2013 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.  (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
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The Willie Taggart era at Oregon is barely a month old, and already the first crisis has arrived.

A report from The Oregonian uncovered that at least three Ducks football players have been sent to the hospital after undergoing grueling workouts administered by new strength coach Irele Oderinde, who followed Taggart from South Florida. Offensive linemen Doug Brenner and Sam Poutasi and tight end Cam McCormick are in “fair condition” at Springfield’s PeaceHealth Sacred Heart Medical Center at Riverbend, where they have remained since late last week.

Poutasi has reportedly been diagnosed with rhabdomyolysis, a soft tissue condition triggered by overwork that can lead to kidney damage.

While those three players remained hospitalized, The Oregonian reports the rest of the team was required to complete the same workouts this week:

The sources said that some players “passed out” and others later complained of discolored urine, which is a common symptom of rhabdomyolysis. After testing, others were found to have highly elevated levels of creatine kinase, an indicator of the syndrome.

“The safety and welfare of all of our student-athletes is paramount in all that we do,” Oregon said in a statement to The Oregonian. “While we cannot comment on the health of our individual students, we have implemented modifications as we transition back into full training to prevent further occurrences.

“We thank our medical staff and trainers for their continued monitoring of the students and we will continue to support our young men as they recover.”

Taggart visited the players in Riverbend before leaving the state to recruit, the paper reported.

Brenner is entering his senior season, while Poutasi and McCormick redshirted last fall.

Phillip Fulmer reportedly a candidate for Tennessee AD job

NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 22:  Head coach Phillip Fulmer of the Tennessee Volunteers gives a thumbs up after winning the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium on November 22, 2008 in Nashville, North Carolina.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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Tennessee is still in search of its next athletics director, which has become a point of contention lately — and especially over the past 24 hours.

Alabama hired Greg Byrne away from Arizona without ever letting the job hit the open market, which begs the question, just what the heck are they doing in Knoxville? Outgoing AD Dave Hart has been outgoing since before football season started. Getting outmaneuvered by their rivals to the south — their immensely more successful rivals to the south, at least in the sport that matters in Tennessee — has created turmoil for an athletics department that majors in it.

As an apparent slice of red meet to the fans, the Vols let it be known Monday Phillip Fulmer is a serious candidate for their AD job.

“Fulmer has grown close to Tennessee President Joe DiPietro and a group of influential boosters have been working behind the scenes to help install him as Dave Hart’s replacement, according to people close to the situation,” Wolken writes.

Fulmer has exactly zero athletics director experience, but he is a harken back to the glory days of yonder for the Volunteers. He went 152-52 in 17 seasons with six top-10 finishes, three SEC titles, six SEC East crowns and a national championship in 1998.

In fact, even the “bad” Fulmer seasons — a .531 SEC winning percentage with one top-15 finish and one SEC East championship from 2005-08 — compare favorably with the marks of his three successors. Lane KiffinDerek Dooley and Butch Jones have collectively posted a .349 SEC winning percentage with zero top-15 finishes and zero SEC East championships in the eight seasons since Fulmer’s dumping.

It’s not clear what Fulmer brings to the department beyond a familiar face and a living, breathing link to the glory days, but perhaps those attributes are good enough at Tennessee.