No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 12 Florida. No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Nebraska. No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 Clemson.
Add in two more battles of unbeatens -- No. 15 Baylor vs. Kansas State and No. 17 Texas vs. Iowa State -- and you have a monumental weekend that will shape multiple conference races and refine how the national landscape may shake out down the road.
On that latter front, could the losers of these marquee games be out of the title chase after just five weeks of the season? History suggests that could very well be the case, despite the old maxim that a loss early in the season is always better than a loss late. In fact, when you actually look at the numbers, that old mantra is borderline extinct during the BcS era; more teams with late-season losses have made the title game than those that lost earlier in the season, as it turns out.
Since the BcS was implemented during the 1998 season, 26 teams have played for the national championship. Of those 26, 17 went through their regular seasons and conference championship games unbeaten. Obviously, being unblemished throughout is optimal and provides the path of least resistance for a shot at the title game.
And what of those nine schools that had a loss and still managed an appearance in the BcS title game? Here are the seven schools that lost after Week 5 and played for all the Tostitos later in the season.
- Big 12 championship game -- Oklahoma, 2003
- Week 14 -- Nebraska, 2001
- Week 11 -- Ohio State, 2007
- Week 7 -- Florida State, 2000; LSU, 2003; LSU, 2007
- Week 6 -- Oklahoma, 2008
Only two teams that played for a BcS title lost in Week 5 or earlier: Florida State in 1998 (Week 2) and Florida in 2008 (Week 5). To further refine the point, the ’08 Gators are the only team to win a BcS title after they had suffered a loss before Week 7.
So, would the losers of this weekend’s battles of the unbeatens be totally eliminated from contention? Not totally, but historical precedents established over the past 13 years strongly suggests it will be one hellacious climb up a very steep mountain just to make the title game, let alone win it, especially if Boise State can remain unbeaten.
It also very clearly shows the dire need for a playoff system so that we’re not talking about all but eliminating teams by Week 5 of a season, but that’s another diatribe for another day.