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Predictions 101 — Week 6

The Swami AP

People keep waiting for the hot-streak to end (honestly, we do, as well), but it rolls on. Our weekly Dabo Swinney postgame quote fits P101’s situation just as nicely as Clemson’s — “Maybe there’s some people out there that might start believing in this team a little bit.”

We didn’t set any records during Week 5, but still got the job done at 7-4-1 vs. “the number.” The 9-3 straight-up mark was highlighted by Auburn’s upset of double-digit favorite South Carolina.

After 60 games, we’re sitting pretty at a documented 41-15-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 45-15.

My goodness … why go anywhere else?

We’re strongly considering, putting out a tip jar.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 6 thru Sat., Oct. 8 )

1) No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Texas (at Dallas)
Sat., Oct. 8 — noon ET, ABC

This is more like it. It never seems right when the Sooners and Longhorns aren’t undefeated upon arrival at the annual renewal of the Red River Rivalry. This marks only the second time in the last seven years that both teams are attempting to stave off their first setback of the season.

But maybe next year, it’ll be more of a fair fight.

Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 in Big 12) has a massive advantage in big-game experience. This is the third time Sooner quarterback Landry Jones will be playing a major role at the Texas State Fair and he has rock-solid senior wideout Ryan Broyles and others to lean on. Their considerable talents easily mask some question marks along the offensive line.

Dealt a much different hand, Texas (4-0, 1-0) will rely heavily on players getting their first taste of the RRR to provide the offensive production. Bob Stoops and defensive coordinator Brent Venables are ready to pounce. We smell turnovers.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 9 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 34-20

Final: Oklahoma 55-17

2) No. 17 Florida at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

On one side you’ve got the Tigers, who are trying to find snaps for two quarterbacks.

On the other, you’ve got the Gators with freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel making his first collegiate start on the road at top-ranked LSU (5-0, 2-0 in SEC), in place of injured senior starter John Brantley. At least the game isn’t at night. That would push matters over the edge, if they aren’t already.

Gator offensive coordinator Charlie Weis will really be tested here, sending out a youngster with only 16 career pass attempts, two of which were intercepted.

It’s hard to imagine that this game won’t be a continuation of the misery Florida (4-1, 2-1) went through during the second half of last week’s 38-10 loss to Alabama, which was the Gators’ worst loss at The Swamp since 2002. Interestingly enough, the visitor that day was none other than LSU, which won 36-7.

It won’t be that sort of blowout this time, but it will be convincing.

Opening point spread: LSU by 12

The pick: LSU 31-10

Final: LSU 41-11

3) No. 15 Auburn at No. 10 Arkansas
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Hogs are out to abuse a Tiger defense that currently ranks 106th in total defense (allowing 440 yards per game) and 109th in rushing defense (207). In addition to those two categories, Auburn (4-1, 2-0) also ranks last in the SEC in scoring defense (27.4) and passing efficiency defense.

Tiger defenders feel that they turned the corner with last week’s upset victory over South Carolina and its all-everything tailback Marcus Lattimore, but Arkansas (4-1, 0-1) represents the SEC’s ultimate offensive exam. The Razorbacks are averaging 52 points and 610 total yards per game.

The determining factor in this prediction is that with all that said, Arkansas’ defense is worse than Auburn’s at this point.

We’re thinking overtime might be required.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 10

The pick: Arkansas 43-36

Final: Arkansas 38-14

4) No. 24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7 p.m. ET, FX

We try not to take this stuff personally, but the Aggies make it so hard. We had faith in them during the previous two weeks (albeit waning faith since we had Arkansas with the points last Saturday) and they let us down each time after starting so well.

One thing’s for sure … no coffee for Texas A&M (2-2, 0-1 in Big 12). “Coffee’s for closers.”

Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0) has a shot to remain undefeated, especially if the Red Raiders are able to make all their offensive possessions count. That’ll probably happen since the Aggies have forced only two turnovers this season.

Tech quarterback Seth Doege should have a field day against an A&M pass defense that ranks dead last in the nation, allowing 337 yards per game through the air.

Can the SEC send the Aggies back before they even get there?

Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 7

The pick: Texas Tech 37-34

Final: Texas A&M 45-40

5) Miami (Fla.) at No. 21 Virginia Tech
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

It’ll be interesting to see how the Hokies respond to the sting of last Saturday’s 23-3 loss to Clemson. That was their second worst loss at home in the last three decades. Virginia Tech (4-1, 0-1 in ACC) was held out of the end zone for the first time since 1995.

Miami (2-2, 0-1) would love to continue that theme, but its run defense is tailor made for Hokies tailback David Wilson, who will be gunning for his fifth 100-yard game this season. The Hurricanes are allowing 202 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them way down at 105th in the nation.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 8 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 26-24

Final: Virginia Tech 38-35

6) California at No. 9 Oregon
Thurs., Oct. 6 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

We’re not sure what was short circuited in Chip Kelly’s spread-n-conquer attack in last November’s meeting at California, but the Golden Bears held the top-ranked Ducks to just 15 points and 377 yards. That sounds like numbers attributed to an upset victory, but Cal is Cal … and losing is served in all shapes and sizes in Berkeley. A false start by the field goal kicker being the blunder that got in the way of a massive win and provided a 15-13 defeat.

Oregon (3-1, 1-0 in Pac-12) and Cal (3-1, 0-1) both had last week off. With that extra time, we expect Bear defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast to slow the spread some, but not nearly enough to deny the Ducks their 19th consecutive victory at Autzen Stadium.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 24 1/2

The pick: Oregon 37-20

Final: Oregon 43-15

7) Air Force at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

The Fighting Irish’s recent woes versus Navy indicate that the Falcons have a shot to fly out of South Bend with a victory.

Air Force (3-1, 0-1 in MWC), fresh off its 35-34 overtime decision over Navy, will be facing a Notre Dame team that has allowed only one rushing touchdown so far this season. The Domers also have allowed only one 100-yard rusher (Michigan’s Denard Robinson, 108) since that devastating 35-17 loss to the Midshipmen on Oct. 23, 2010. So, the Irish have all of that going for them, but executing the proper assignment defense on the edge won’t be any easier if defensive end Ethan Johnson (ankle) can’t go.

Notre Dame (3-2) played impressively on offense last week, piling up 551 yards and 34 first downs in a 38-10 victory at Purdue. But stats have never been the problem with this crew. Most importantly, the Irish were selfish when it came to the football, playing turnover free. Can they do it again?

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 17

The pick: Notre Dame 30-24

Final: Notre Dame 59-33

8 ) Ohio State at No. 14 Nebraska
Sat., Oct. 8 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. “Coach Hedanz” is banned from Oregon games for the time being.

After being so rudely welcomed to its new conference by Wisconsin last Saturday, Nebraska (4-1, 0-1) has to suck it up for its inaugural Big Ten home game as Ohio State (3-2, 0-1) comes to Lincoln.

With freshman quarterback Braxton Miller making his first road start, the Buckeyes were hoping to add reinforcements in the form of running back Dan “Boom” Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey, but those hopes were dashed when they received additional suspensions on Monday. Therefore, look for another inept performance from an Ohio State offense that cannot regularly find the end zone against teams with any semblance of defense.

On the flip side, the “Blackshirts” are out to redeem themselves after giving up nearly half-a-hundred to the Badgers.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Ohio State defense holds up against Nebraska’s attack. The feeling here is that the Buckeyes will hold their own early, but fade as the lack of production from their offensive counterparts keep them on the field far too long against the Cornhuskers’ relentless ground game.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 10

The pick: Nebraska 27-13

Final: Nebraska 34-27

9) Colorado at No. 7 Stanford
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7:30 p.m. ET, Versus

What’s with the AP Top 25? Are these media people jealous that they didn’t get in to Stanford? C’mon … the P101 chief got over it (and promptly went to CU).

The Cardinal beat UCLA, 45-19, last Saturday, winning their 12th consecutive game. Nevertheless, the Cardinal dropped a spot in the AP poll on Sunday, slipping to No. 7.

Two weeks ago, The Farm was No. 5.

If form holds, Stanford (4-0, 2-0 in Pac-12) will crush Colorado (1-4, 0-1) and drop another rung to No. 8.

At least the coaches poll has the Cardinal moving in the right direction, currently holding steady at No. 4.

The average score of Stanford victories this season is 45.8-11.5.

Opening point spread: Stanford by 27

The pick: Stanford 42-16

Final: Stanford 48-7

10) Georgia at Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Thanks to Auburn and Alabama posting road victories at South Carolina and Florida last week, the SEC East is up for grabs … and the Bulldogs and Volunteers certainly have their hands in the mix.

Tennessee (3-1, 0-1), which posted a convincing 41-10 victory over Buffalo last Saturday, has the home-field and psychological advantage, seeking revenge for that brutal 41-14 loss between the hedges last season.

Even though the season-ending injury to wideout Justin Hunter slows them down, we still like the Vol attack led by quarterback Tyler Bray.

Georgia (3-2, 2-1) hasn’t scored a second-half touchdown in its last two games. The Dawgs will need at least a couple of those to get the job done in Knoxville.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 1

The pick: Tennessee 30-26

Final: Georgia 20-12

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Kansas at No. 6 Oklahoma State
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif. He’s breaking away from his usual focus on thoroughbred horse racing to take another shot. Marc broke his maiden in a big way last week, bringing home Auburn over South Carolina.

These teams have combined to average a whopping 67 total points in each of their last seven meetings, dating back to 1998. The Cowboys (4-0, 1-0 in Big 12) have been victorious in six of those games, including the 48-14 smackdown last year in Lawrence, when they scored the final 38 points.

After using a similar come-from-ahead approach in a 45-35 loss to Texas Tech at home last week (squandered a 20-0 lead), the Jayhawks (2-2, 0-1), who allow more than 44 points per game, have no shot at stopping a well-rested Oklahoma State attack that ranks third nationally with 571 yards per game and sixth in scoring at nearly 47 points per game.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 33

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-13

Final: Oklahoma State 70-28

Connecticut at No. 16 West Virginia
Sat., Oct. 8 — Noon ET

As much as we’d like to, we couldn’t blow off the Big East.

The Connecticut defense will have a ton of work to do against a Mountaineer offense that might have found a running game to balance out the aerial attack piloted by quarterback Geno Smith.

True freshman tailback Dustin Garrison exploded on the scene in last week’s 55-10 victory over Bowling Green with 291 rushing yards (nearly as many as West Virginia had in its previous four games combined).

We know the Huskies (2-3) upset the Mountaineers (4-1) last season, but that was when Paul Pasqualoni wasn’t around and we certainly didn’t see anything in their 38-31 loss at home to Western Michigan last week that indicates they’ve got anything in them to even keep it close in this conference opener for both teams.

Connecticut allowed Bronco quarterback Alex Carder to pass for 479 yards and five scores, with three receivers going over 100 yards. Smith should have an easy time carving up the Huskies.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 21

The pick: West Virginia 42-17

Final: West Virginia 43-16

Week 6 record: 10-2
Total: 55-17

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15 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 6”
  1. southernpatriots says: Oct 5, 2011 12:51 PM

    John:

    Excellent synopses as always. However, we hope our alma mater will not be trying to find snaps for two quarterbacks. LSU should have Lee with 90% of the snaps and use JJ in special situations (maybe 5 or 10%). LSU will win. So will Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas A & M, Virginia Tech, Oregon, OK State, and WVU as you have stated. Not too good at scores, but yours look good. Keep up the good work each week!

  2. blitz4848 says: Oct 5, 2011 1:11 PM

    Agree with all the picks except Auburn vs Arkansas—Auburn will slow down Arkansas and beat them Take Auburn +10 it’s a GIFT…….

    Auburn 38-Arkansas-31

    You won’t even need the 10 pts = the gift of the week!

  3. txrzrbck says: Oct 5, 2011 1:35 PM

    blitz4848

    I know you guys won the National Championship last year, all the props in the world for that. But you guys are no longer the team you were last year. You are missing your #1 and #3 receiver and the only way A&M ran the ball on us was to spread us WAY out. You won’t be spreading anyone out with your scrub receivers. Also, your Defense is nothing remotely close to Bama’s. Sorry to burst your bubble, but you won’t be slowing down much of anything.

    I expect this to be a good game, but “Gift of the week”??? Give me a break.

  4. drummerhoff says: Oct 5, 2011 1:42 PM

    Quick question:

    RE: VT lose to Clemson 23-3
    You you said, “That was their second worst loss at home in the last three decades.” … So what was the Hokies’ #1 loss at home?
    Temple in 1998 or James Madison last year??
    How about the 2003 lose to WVU 28-7???
    East Caroline in 2008????

  5. blitz4848 says: Oct 5, 2011 2:14 PM

    @txrzback

    Not an Auburn fan—I bet games–that’s my opinion and it’s NOT based on any biases as I don’t bet games my team plays in…….

    tell me Sunday I was wrong but right now my opinion is worth as much or more than yours because I bet my $$$ on my opinion!!!

  6. thesecplaysforkeeps says: Oct 5, 2011 2:23 PM

    Agree almost completely. Some pretty easy picks.

    How about UM-NW? ECU-HOU? WSU-UCLA?

    You should list the spreads, too.

  7. lucky5934 says: Oct 5, 2011 2:45 PM

    Well, I am an Auburn fan…. and I do hope they win. But the thought of Auburn “Slowing down” Arkansas is wishful at best. Auburns defense is not up to the task of keeping up with the razorbacks offense I am sad to say! I wish they were though, I can’t stand Petrino. Arkansas scores in the 40’s.. Auburn will be lucky to make it out of the 20’s.

  8. lucky5934 says: Oct 5, 2011 2:48 PM

    JT, good picks overall… But I have Georgia and Texas A & M. I do have a question though… why do you say the last two are games we shouldn’t ignore, but you are predicting blowouts? Just wondering because your prediction doesn’t inspire me to watch. No offense…

  9. txrzrbck says: Oct 5, 2011 2:59 PM

    blitz4848

    Well, if the only thing that makes your opinion “valid” is the fact that you bet on it, then everyone in Vegas has a “valid” opinion.

    I was going more with “facts on the ground”. Arkansas’s defense isn’t what everyone thought it would be down 2-3 DE’s, but Auburn doesn’t have the most impressive offense (Dyer seems to be their only threat with their #1 and 3 receiver out for the game). Additionally, Auburn didn’t exactly have a light’s out defense last year before they lost multiple players to the draft and graduation.

    Your comment that the 10 pts was a gift doesn’t seem to mesh with what we’ve seen so far from either team, but hey, as long as your betting on your opinion, it must be “valid”.

    Good luck with that one. Hope you lose your shirt. :)

  10. thefiesty1 says: Oct 5, 2011 3:49 PM

    Stoops hasn’t seen Harsin’s magical play calling since they lost to Boise in the Fiesta a few years ago. And, the young Horns may surprise them too. Manny Diaz’ defense has a few tricks up their sleeves too. We’ll see.

  11. gorilladunk says: Oct 5, 2011 5:16 PM

    I think Harsin’s “magical” play calling has come at the expense of pretty pedestrian defenses. I’m sure he’ll pull out the stops, but I don’t think a game plan that is “dependant” on trick plays is one that plans on winning.

  12. rajuncajun28 says: Oct 5, 2011 7:52 PM

    Awbarn = irrelevant…..yawn…..

  13. suprmous says: Oct 5, 2011 9:22 PM

    Ahhhhhhh my brother rajuncajun don’t count AU out just yet. These kids are learning week to week. I still say they’re learning and watch out, there’s still time for them to get out of the blocks and show us all something. southernpatriots glad to hear from a previous thread all’s going good with your campagin to get those folks better still. As I tell the one who’s the OU fan, I’ll hush up and go fore my welcome gets worn thin. But you nice folks have a good evening.

  14. sportsdrenched.com says: Oct 6, 2011 9:34 AM

    Everytime I think OU will roll Texas in this game I am dissapointed. Texas is getting 9.5? I’ll take it. It’s the cliched “You can throw all that out in a rivalry game”

    Other than that. Good weekend for College Football. Saturdays in October are the best Saturdays of the year.

  15. sportsdrenched.com says: Oct 6, 2011 9:37 AM

    Awbarn = irrelevant…..yawn…..

    Well other than they’re the defending National Champs, but other than that…yeah they ain’t nothin’

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