The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 6

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People keep waiting for the hot-streak to end (honestly, we do, as well), but it rolls on. Our weekly Dabo Swinney postgame quote fits P101’s situation just as nicely as Clemson’s — “Maybe there’s some people out there that might start believing in this team a little bit.”

We didn’t set any records during Week 5, but still got the job done at 7-4-1 vs. “the number.” The 9-3 straight-up mark was highlighted by Auburn’s upset of double-digit favorite South Carolina.

After 60 games, we’re sitting pretty at a documented 41-15-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 45-15.

My goodness … why go anywhere else?

We’re strongly considering, putting out a tip jar.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 6 thru Sat., Oct. 8 )

1) No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Texas (at Dallas)
Sat., Oct. 8 — noon ET, ABC

This is more like it. It never seems right when the Sooners and Longhorns aren’t undefeated upon arrival at the annual renewal of the Red River Rivalry. This marks only the second time in the last seven years that both teams are attempting to stave off their first setback of the season.

But maybe next year, it’ll be more of a fair fight.

Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 in Big 12) has a massive advantage in big-game experience. This is the third time Sooner quarterback Landry Jones will be playing a major role at the Texas State Fair and he has rock-solid senior wideout Ryan Broyles and others to lean on. Their considerable talents easily mask some question marks along the offensive line.

Dealt a much different hand, Texas (4-0, 1-0) will rely heavily on players getting their first taste of the RRR to provide the offensive production. Bob Stoops and defensive coordinator Brent Venables are ready to pounce. We smell turnovers.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 9 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 34-20

Final: Oklahoma 55-17

2) No. 17 Florida at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

On one side you’ve got the Tigers, who are trying to find snaps for two quarterbacks.

On the other, you’ve got the Gators with freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel making his first collegiate start on the road at top-ranked LSU (5-0, 2-0 in SEC), in place of injured senior starter John Brantley. At least the game isn’t at night. That would push matters over the edge, if they aren’t already.

Gator offensive coordinator Charlie Weis will really be tested here, sending out a youngster with only 16 career pass attempts, two of which were intercepted.

It’s hard to imagine that this game won’t be a continuation of the misery Florida (4-1, 2-1) went through during the second half of last week’s 38-10 loss to Alabama, which was the Gators’ worst loss at The Swamp since 2002. Interestingly enough, the visitor that day was none other than LSU, which won 36-7.

It won’t be that sort of blowout this time, but it will be convincing.

Opening point spread: LSU by 12

The pick: LSU 31-10

Final: LSU 41-11

3) No. 15 Auburn at No. 10 Arkansas
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Hogs are out to abuse a Tiger defense that currently ranks 106th in total defense (allowing 440 yards per game) and 109th in rushing defense (207). In addition to those two categories, Auburn (4-1, 2-0) also ranks last in the SEC in scoring defense (27.4) and passing efficiency defense.

Tiger defenders feel that they turned the corner with last week’s upset victory over South Carolina and its all-everything tailback Marcus Lattimore, but Arkansas (4-1, 0-1) represents the SEC’s ultimate offensive exam. The Razorbacks are averaging 52 points and 610 total yards per game.

The determining factor in this prediction is that with all that said, Arkansas’ defense is worse than Auburn’s at this point.

We’re thinking overtime might be required.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 10

The pick: Arkansas 43-36

Final: Arkansas 38-14

4) No. 24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7 p.m. ET, FX

We try not to take this stuff personally, but the Aggies make it so hard. We had faith in them during the previous two weeks (albeit waning faith since we had Arkansas with the points last Saturday) and they let us down each time after starting so well.

One thing’s for sure … no coffee for Texas A&M (2-2, 0-1 in Big 12). “Coffee’s for closers.”

Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0) has a shot to remain undefeated, especially if the Red Raiders are able to make all their offensive possessions count. That’ll probably happen since the Aggies have forced only two turnovers this season.

Tech quarterback Seth Doege should have a field day against an A&M pass defense that ranks dead last in the nation, allowing 337 yards per game through the air.

Can the SEC send the Aggies back before they even get there?

Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 7

The pick: Texas Tech 37-34

Final: Texas A&M 45-40

5) Miami (Fla.) at No. 21 Virginia Tech
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

It’ll be interesting to see how the Hokies respond to the sting of last Saturday’s 23-3 loss to Clemson. That was their second worst loss at home in the last three decades. Virginia Tech (4-1, 0-1 in ACC) was held out of the end zone for the first time since 1995.

Miami (2-2, 0-1) would love to continue that theme, but its run defense is tailor made for Hokies tailback David Wilson, who will be gunning for his fifth 100-yard game this season. The Hurricanes are allowing 202 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them way down at 105th in the nation.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 8 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 26-24

Final: Virginia Tech 38-35

6) California at No. 9 Oregon
Thurs., Oct. 6 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

We’re not sure what was short circuited in Chip Kelly’s spread-n-conquer attack in last November’s meeting at California, but the Golden Bears held the top-ranked Ducks to just 15 points and 377 yards. That sounds like numbers attributed to an upset victory, but Cal is Cal … and losing is served in all shapes and sizes in Berkeley. A false start by the field goal kicker being the blunder that got in the way of a massive win and provided a 15-13 defeat.

Oregon (3-1, 1-0 in Pac-12) and Cal (3-1, 0-1) both had last week off. With that extra time, we expect Bear defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast to slow the spread some, but not nearly enough to deny the Ducks their 19th consecutive victory at Autzen Stadium.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 24 1/2

The pick: Oregon 37-20

Final: Oregon 43-15

7) Air Force at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

The Fighting Irish’s recent woes versus Navy indicate that the Falcons have a shot to fly out of South Bend with a victory.

Air Force (3-1, 0-1 in MWC), fresh off its 35-34 overtime decision over Navy, will be facing a Notre Dame team that has allowed only one rushing touchdown so far this season. The Domers also have allowed only one 100-yard rusher (Michigan’s Denard Robinson, 108) since that devastating 35-17 loss to the Midshipmen on Oct. 23, 2010. So, the Irish have all of that going for them, but executing the proper assignment defense on the edge won’t be any easier if defensive end Ethan Johnson (ankle) can’t go.

Notre Dame (3-2) played impressively on offense last week, piling up 551 yards and 34 first downs in a 38-10 victory at Purdue. But stats have never been the problem with this crew. Most importantly, the Irish were selfish when it came to the football, playing turnover free. Can they do it again?

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 17

The pick: Notre Dame 30-24

Final: Notre Dame 59-33

8 ) Ohio State at No. 14 Nebraska
Sat., Oct. 8 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. “Coach Hedanz” is banned from Oregon games for the time being.

After being so rudely welcomed to its new conference by Wisconsin last Saturday, Nebraska (4-1, 0-1) has to suck it up for its inaugural Big Ten home game as Ohio State (3-2, 0-1) comes to Lincoln.

With freshman quarterback Braxton Miller making his first road start, the Buckeyes were hoping to add reinforcements in the form of running back Dan “Boom” Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey, but those hopes were dashed when they received additional suspensions on Monday. Therefore, look for another inept performance from an Ohio State offense that cannot regularly find the end zone against teams with any semblance of defense.

On the flip side, the “Blackshirts” are out to redeem themselves after giving up nearly half-a-hundred to the Badgers.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Ohio State defense holds up against Nebraska’s attack. The feeling here is that the Buckeyes will hold their own early, but fade as the lack of production from their offensive counterparts keep them on the field far too long against the Cornhuskers’ relentless ground game.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 10

The pick: Nebraska 27-13

Final: Nebraska 34-27

9) Colorado at No. 7 Stanford
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7:30 p.m. ET, Versus

What’s with the AP Top 25? Are these media people jealous that they didn’t get in to Stanford? C’mon … the P101 chief got over it (and promptly went to CU).

The Cardinal beat UCLA, 45-19, last Saturday, winning their 12th consecutive game. Nevertheless, the Cardinal dropped a spot in the AP poll on Sunday, slipping to No. 7.

Two weeks ago, The Farm was No. 5.

If form holds, Stanford (4-0, 2-0 in Pac-12) will crush Colorado (1-4, 0-1) and drop another rung to No. 8.

At least the coaches poll has the Cardinal moving in the right direction, currently holding steady at No. 4.

The average score of Stanford victories this season is 45.8-11.5.

Opening point spread: Stanford by 27

The pick: Stanford 42-16

Final: Stanford 48-7

10) Georgia at Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 8 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Thanks to Auburn and Alabama posting road victories at South Carolina and Florida last week, the SEC East is up for grabs … and the Bulldogs and Volunteers certainly have their hands in the mix.

Tennessee (3-1, 0-1), which posted a convincing 41-10 victory over Buffalo last Saturday, has the home-field and psychological advantage, seeking revenge for that brutal 41-14 loss between the hedges last season.

Even though the season-ending injury to wideout Justin Hunter slows them down, we still like the Vol attack led by quarterback Tyler Bray.

Georgia (3-2, 2-1) hasn’t scored a second-half touchdown in its last two games. The Dawgs will need at least a couple of those to get the job done in Knoxville.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 1

The pick: Tennessee 30-26

Final: Georgia 20-12

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Kansas at No. 6 Oklahoma State
Sat., Oct. 8 — 3:30 p.m. ET

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif. He’s breaking away from his usual focus on thoroughbred horse racing to take another shot. Marc broke his maiden in a big way last week, bringing home Auburn over South Carolina.

These teams have combined to average a whopping 67 total points in each of their last seven meetings, dating back to 1998. The Cowboys (4-0, 1-0 in Big 12) have been victorious in six of those games, including the 48-14 smackdown last year in Lawrence, when they scored the final 38 points.

After using a similar come-from-ahead approach in a 45-35 loss to Texas Tech at home last week (squandered a 20-0 lead), the Jayhawks (2-2, 0-1), who allow more than 44 points per game, have no shot at stopping a well-rested Oklahoma State attack that ranks third nationally with 571 yards per game and sixth in scoring at nearly 47 points per game.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 33

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-13

Final: Oklahoma State 70-28

Connecticut at No. 16 West Virginia
Sat., Oct. 8 — Noon ET

As much as we’d like to, we couldn’t blow off the Big East.

The Connecticut defense will have a ton of work to do against a Mountaineer offense that might have found a running game to balance out the aerial attack piloted by quarterback Geno Smith.

True freshman tailback Dustin Garrison exploded on the scene in last week’s 55-10 victory over Bowling Green with 291 rushing yards (nearly as many as West Virginia had in its previous four games combined).

We know the Huskies (2-3) upset the Mountaineers (4-1) last season, but that was when Paul Pasqualoni wasn’t around and we certainly didn’t see anything in their 38-31 loss at home to Western Michigan last week that indicates they’ve got anything in them to even keep it close in this conference opener for both teams.

Connecticut allowed Bronco quarterback Alex Carder to pass for 479 yards and five scores, with three receivers going over 100 yards. Smith should have an easy time carving up the Huskies.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 21

The pick: West Virginia 42-17

Final: West Virginia 43-16

Week 6 record: 10-2
Total: 55-17

Oklahoma media files another lawsuit in pursuit of Joe Mixon surveillance tape

Joe Mixon
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The Joe Mixon saga is not over.

After the Oklahoma Association of Broadcasters won a ruling from the state’s supreme court in May that a video of Mixon punching a female fell under the public record, the OAB found that the Cleveland County (Okla.) Clerk’s office and the City of Norman either did not have the video or refused to release it.

In turn, the OAB and media outlets across the state are now suing Cleveland County Court Clerk Rhonda Hall, the Cleveland County clerk’s office and the City of Norman.

In case you forgot, the saga stems from an incident before Mixon’s freshman year at Oklahoma where he punched a woman outside a Norman establishment. The video was viewed by the media in a September 2014 gathering. Here is how one described it:

The angle of the surveillance camera looks down from a corner. Its lens is directly on Molitor and Mixon at the moment of the physical altercation. You couldn’t ask for a better camera angle.

There’s no audio to go along with the video, so no one watching the video can be sure of what was said. We can only speculate that Molitor didn’t like something that was being said and summoned Mixon to her table to hash it out.

When Mixon looked like he was trying to leave after possibly saying something he shouldn’t have, Molitor, the victim, initiated the physical confrontation with a push into Mixon’s chest, which didn’t seem to move him much.

Mixon followed by lunging at her. Molitor jerked back and slapped Mixon on the chin and neck. She swung with force but didn’t connect flush or enough to make an impact on Mixon.

Immediately following the slap, Mixon leveled a punch violent enough to knock Molitor down so that her head hit the corner of a nearby table. The force of Mixon’s punch caught me off guard — even when I knew it was coming.

After throwing the punch, Mixon fled from the camera’s view and did not reenter it. Molitor is left on the ground and stays down for much longer than a 10-count. She makes it back to her feet on her own but wobbles and has to be helped into a chair.

Blood streamed down her face as friends and Pickleman’s patrons brought her ice and paper towels to help stop the bleeding.

Mixon sat out the 2014 season as punishment for the incident, then re-joined the roster in 2015. He finished second on the team with 113 carries for 753 yards and seven touchdowns while catching 28 balls for 356 yards and four scores as a redshirt freshman.

With another signee granted release, half of Baylor’s signing class is now gone

BUFFALO, NY - SEPTEMBER 12:  A Baylor Bears helmet on the sidelines during the game against the Buffalo Bulls at UB Stadium on September 12, 2014 in Buffalo, New York.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
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And another once-future Bear bites the dust.

Brandon Bowen has been granted his release from Baylor, a school spokesman confirmed to the Waco Tribune-Herald on Thursday. Bowen, a 6-foot-5, 233-pound defensive end, signed with Baylor as a four-star prospect out of Byron Nelson High School in Trophy Club, Texas, in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. He chose Baylor over Oklahoma and Oregon last winter.

Bowen becomes the 11th member of Baylor’s 2016 class to be granted a release from his scholarship or otherwise leave the team this summer. The previous 10 are — deep breaths — B.J. Autry, Parish Cobb, Tren'Davian Dickson, Devin Duvernay, Donovan Duvernay, Jeremy Faulk, Patrick Hudson, Kameron Martin, J.P. Urquidez and DeQuinton Osborne.

That’s 11 members of Baylor’s 22-man signing class now gone. The Bears’ 2017 class has one commitment and is ranked 113th by the 247Sports Composite rankings.

Dickson transfereed to Houston, Martin signed with Auburn, Osborne left for Oklahoma State, and Hudson, Urquidez and the Duvernay brothers all migrated to Texas.

 

Coastal Carolina officially joins the Sun Belt today, in all sports except football

COLUMBIA, SC - NOVEMBER 23:  Alex Ross #4 of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers drops back to pass during their game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium on November 23, 2013 in Columbia, South Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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One of the final aftershocks of the Great Realignment from earlier this decade officially reaches the surface today.

The Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina are now officially all-sports members of the Sun Belt Conference. In every sport, that is, except football. Joe Moglia and his 41-13 football program will compete this fall as an FCS independent before making the leap in 2017.

“This is a great day for the Sun Belt Conference as we are very proud to have Coastal Carolina University officially join our membership,” Sun Belt Conference commissioner Karl Benson said in a statement. “The Sun Belt has a bright future and Coastal Carolina makes a perfect fit as it too has seen a tremendous amount of growth and success with its baseball team most recently winning the College World Series and a national championship. Under the leadership of President DeCenzo, Athletics Director Matt Hogue, and all the Chanticleer coaches and student-athletes, I expect CCU to be very competitive in the Sun Belt immediately and represent the SBC in NCAA championships in the upcoming season.”

The oddity here is that no Sun Belt member has ever won a national championship while a member of the Sun Belt (Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Louisiana-Monroe each claimed Division I-AA/FCS national championships). Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina registered its first ever national championship in baseball just yesterday, its final day as a Big South member and on the eve of moving to the Sun Belt.

That, of course, didn’t stop the Sun Belt from covering the Chanticleers’ run through Omaha like they were one of their own.

Coastal Carolina’s first football season will also mark affiliate members Idaho and New Mexico State’s final season in the Sun Belt. The sleeker, geographically cohesive 10-team Sun Belt will launch its championship game in 2018.

Jeremy Foley’s successor at Florida unlikely to come from within

GAINESVILLE, FL - DECEMBER 06:  Florida Gators athletic director Jeremy Foley speaks on during an introductory press conference on December 6, 2014 in Gainesville, Florida. Jim McElwain has left Colorado State and replaces ex-Florida head coach Will Muschamp who was fired earlier this season.
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Jeremy Foley‘s rise up the ranks of Florida’s athletics department is a path that launched thousands of sports careers.

After obtaining a Master’s degree in sports administration from Ohio, a 22-year-old Foley took an internship in Florida’s ticket office. He was hired full-time after the internship ended. Then he was promoted to ticket manager. Then he took over all ticket and game operations. Before his 30th birthday Foley was running Florida’s business operations and by age 39 he was the Gators’ athletics director.

He remained in that position, of course, throughout the duration of his career. A career that will end in October.

Foley’s quarter-century run atop the Florida sports pyramid and four decades working within it will come to an end soon, and in the process of finding his replacement it appears the Gators will choose from a well different than they found the old boss. Foley was famously and obviously loyal to Florida, and also to his team of senior executives.

His top three executives, executive associate AD for internal affairs Chip Howard, executive associate AD for external affairs Mike Hill and executive associate AD for administration Lynda Tealer have been in Gainesville since 1989, 1993 and 2003, respectively. And each has taken their name out of the running to become Florida’s next AD.

“Each of the internal people have made a decision not to pursue the athletic director position for their own individual reasons,” Florida spokesman Steve McClain said in a statement on Thursday to the Florida Times-Union.

Georgia AD Greg McGarity, a former Foley protege in Gainesville, took his name out of the running earlier last month.