The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 8

22 Comments

Back to our winning ways, we went 7-5 in Week 7 vs. “the number.”

For the second week in a row, the only blemishes on our 10-2 straight-up mark were a couple of foolish reaches for upsets (Wake Forest over Virginia Tech, and Cal over USC).

If there’s gonna be an upset this week, it’ll be a doozy. The board is littered with ranked teams involved in contests with double-digit pointspreads, in some cases even against another ranked team. Our top game is one such matchup, but that “Clash of Champions” deserves attention … at least at the start.

After 84 games, we’re 54-26-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 65-19.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 20 thru Sat., Oct. 22)

1) No. 19 Auburn at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Oct. 22 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

With all of LSU’s success it seems rather odd that the Tigers haven’t opened a season with eight consecutive victories since 1973.

Auburn (5-2, 3-1 in SEC), fresh off a win over Florida, intends on keeping it that way. The defending national champs did capture last year’s meeting, but that was at home on the Plains and Cam Newton, not Clint Moseley, was taking the snaps.

Moseley, a sophomore with only nine attempts under his belt, will be the third consecutive first-time starter that LSU (7-0, 4-0) will be facing. Florida’s Jacoby Brissett and Tennessee’s Matt Simms were treated rather rudely in a pair of losses (41-11 and 38-7, respectively) during the past two weeks.

LSU’s wicked defense will focus on Auburn running back Michael Dyer and dare Moseley to try is luck. That won’t turn out well, but Gene Chizik’s biggest problem is his inadequate defense matching up against LSU’s two-quarterback attack, hellbent on making up for last season’s rocky showing at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Opening point spread: LSU by 21

The pick: LSU 39-13

Final: LSU 45-10

2) No. 4 Wisconsin at No. 15 Michigan State
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of “Coach Hedanz” from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

Little brother demoralized big brother again, knocking Michigan from the unbeatens last week. Well-balanced Sparty is turning heads, and no offense meant towards any previous Michigan State opponent or even “Honey Badger” Tyrann Mathieu, but this Badger team is a whole different animal.

With the No. 1 scoring offense, a top-10 defense and this year’s answer to Cam Newton, look out no matter who you are. Nebraska will testify to the dominance of Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0 in Big Ten). The only chink in the Badger armor is that they are not yet road tested.

Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) owns the nation’s top-rated pass defense and is second in total defense. Last week, the Spartans held down the Michigan offense, keeping Shoelace Robinson in check. Balanced and talented, MSU is fully capable of protecting its house.

The problem, Wisconsin is balanced and more talented.

Michigan State will hold its own against the powerful Badgers for a while, but just like against Notre Dame, the Spartans will struggle to get points on the board and simply give too many opportunities to the Wisconsin offensive juggernaut led by Russell Wilson and Montee Ball.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 6 1/2

The pick: Wisconsin 45-17

Final: Michigan State 37-31

3) No. 22 Washington at No. 7 Stanford
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Fed a steady diet of Pac-12 bottom feeders, the Cardinal are finally gonna be tested. Or will they?

Washington (5-1, 3-0 in Pac-12) travels to The Farm determined to make themselves famous at the expense of Stanford (6-0, 4-0), which has faced Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Washington State, after opening with non-conference wins over San Jose State and Duke. One might consider this to be Stanford’s season opener.

Everyone knows what Andrew Luck is all about, so attention ought to shift over to Husky quarterback Keith Price, who has posted some Luck-esque numbers so far this season … 69 percent completion rate, 1,466 yards passing, 21 touchdown tosses and only four interceptions. (Luck’s line is 69%, 1,719, 18 and 3, and he hasn’t been sacked in the last four games.)

If running back Chris Polk can find a way to balance out the Washington attack, the Huskies will make the Cardinal work a full 60 minutes for this one.

Opening point spread: Final: Stanford by 19 1/2

The pick: Stanford 35-27

Final: Stanford 65-21

4) Tennessee at No. 2 Alabama
Sat., Oct. 22 — 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The “Third Saturday in October” will be the “Second Blowout in Two Weeks.”

That’s not a dig at Tennessee (3-3, 0-3 in SEC). That’s just how it goes when you play the top two teams in the country back-to-back. Ahhh … life in the SEC.

Alabama (7-0, 4-0) has a defense that the Carolina Panthers could use. The stats are downright silly. Seven points and 184 yards (38 rushing) allowed per game? C’mon …

Last week, the Crimson Tide allowed Mississippi to gain 72 yards on its first possession and then closed all roads for the Rebels, limiting them to just 69 yards for the remainder of the 52-7 cakewalk.

And then, you’ve got the Bama offense, led by tailback Trent Richardson, who will go over the 1,000-yard mark in the first quarter.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 27 1/2

The pick: Alabama 35-3

Final: Alabama 37-6

5) USC at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 22 — 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

In the lengthy history of college football’s greatest intersectional rivalry, this is only the 10th time that both teams come into the annual throwdown unranked.

If Lane Kiffin is wondering why he’s the first USC coach to be 5-1 yet unranked, somebody needs to tell him that he lost his only game of significance so far this season, a 43-22 meltdown at Arizona State.

Notre Dame (4-2) was inexplicably victorious at the Coliseum last year, snapping an eight-game losing streak to the Trojans, as Irish backup quarterback Tommy Rees beat USC fill-in Mitch Mustain.

This year Rees and the rest of the Notre Dame squad is far more settled within the Brian Kelly regime.

Weak in the coaching department and continually bizarre on special teams, USC (5-1, 3-1 in Pac-12) is in prime position to get schooled by Kelly & Co.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 9

The pick: Notre Dame 34-23

Final: USC 31-17

6) North Carolina at No. 8 Clemson
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, ESPN

This is a dangerous game for the Tigers. After rallying from a 35-17 deficit to post an emotional 56-45 victory at Maryland last Saturday, Clemson (7-0, 4-0 in ACC) is riding high and there’s talk of a table being run.

With all of that swirling around Death Valley, there could easily be a tendency to look past North Carolina (5-2, 1-2) and ahead to the crucial showdown with Georgia Tech that looms next week in Atlanta.

We envision Dabo Swinney having to do some extra chest-bumping in the second half to get his Tigers roaring.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 9 1/2

The pick: Clemson 31-24

Final: Clemson 59-38

7) Texas Tech at No. 3 Oklahoma
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The Red Raiders average 44 points and 372 passing yards per game, but unfortunately they also have yielded a total of 86 points in the last two outings, losses at home to No. 17 Texas A&M and No. 11 Kansas State.

As Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2 in Big 12) visits Norman for the second consecutive season, one of the few — very few — things that Tommy Tuberville has going for him is the fact that the Sooners have those same ranked teams next up. Perhaps they’ll be looking ahead to that crucial section of the schedule.

Oklahoma (6-0, 3-0) has 24 sacks so far this season, including 13 in the last two games. That’s got to have Red Raider quarterback Seth Doege and his offensive line on edge.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 28

The pick: Oklahoma 42-20

Final: Texas Tech 41-38

8 ) No. 11 West Virginia at Syracuse
Fri., Oct. 21 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Orange won’t be able to sneak up on the Mountaineers like they did last year in Morgantown. Besides the fact that it already happened, both teams had last weekend off to prepare for this one and the primetime spotlight has a way of adding intense focus.

Syracuse (4-2, 0-1 in Big East) is expected to welcome back defensive end Chandler Jones and strong safety Olando Fisher, who both missed the past five games due to injuries sustained in the opener. It’s doubtful that the reinforcements will be enough to plug the holes in a unit that ranks 112th in pass defense.

West Virginia (5-1, 1-0), which has scored 98 points in its last two games, will gladly take full advantage. Mountaineer quarterback Geno Smith has been on a rampage as of late, passing for 1,539 yards in his last four games.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 14

The pick: West Virginia 39-20

Final: Syracuse 49-23

9) Fresno State at Nevada
Sat., Oct. 22 — 4:05 p.m. ET, WAC Sports Network

We’re not sure this amounts to even half a hill of beans, but we see this game as the Western Athletic Conference championship. Both the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack have to face Hawaii down the stretch, but the Warriors don’t seem to have their usual fight this season. (Maybe none of these teams want to take the WAC title belt over to the MWC).

Nevada (3-3, 1-0 in WAC) has been busy pistol whipping UNLV and New Mexico at home by a combined score of 86-7 in the past two weeks, after opening the season with four consecutive road games.

The Wolf Pack, who won a 35-34 thriller last season, are averaging 249 yards per game on the ground. That’ll be a tough matchup for Fresno State (3-4, 2-0), which owns the 89th rushing defense in the nation.

These two teams are liable to play hot-potato with the football. The Bulldogs rank 104th in turnover margin and the Wolf Pack are even worse at 117th.

Opening point spread: Nevada by 8 1/2

The pick: Nevada 38-21

Final: Nevada 45-38

10) No. 6 Oklahoma State at Missouri
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, FX

After back-to-back road victories over Texas and a lofty position in the initial BCS rankings, it’s perfectly natural for us to assume that the Cowboys are pleased with themselves and might not be completely focused on an opponent they’ve played (and beaten) only twice since 2005.

This matchup also represents the fourth time in the last five games that Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0 in Big 12) is playing on the road. That has to catch up with the ‘Boys at some point.

Missouri (3-3, 1-2) tuned up for this one with a 52-17 victory over Iowa State last week. The five-TD margin of victory was the Tigers’ biggest since 2008.

We’re not suggesting that the Cowboys, who have won their last eight games on the road, will drop this one, but it won’t be business as usual.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 6 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 28-26

Final: Oklahoma State 45-24

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

UCLA at Arizona
Thurs., Oct. 20 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif. Hopefully he knows as much about bad coaching in college football as he does good coaching in AYSO and thoroughbred horse racing.

An otherwise snoozer gains intrigue due to the revolving head coaching door at the midway point of the season. After Arizona (1-5, 0-4 in Pac-12) fired Mike Stoops last week and ex-UCLA head honcho Bob Toledo resigned at Tulane this week, some among the Bruin faithful are hopeful the saying “never two without three” holds true and head coach Rick Neuheisel (18-25 since taking over for Karl Dorrell) is shown the door much sooner than later.

It could happen after an embarrassing performance under the national TV spotlight against a Wildcat squad that has lost five in a row and eight straight in league play. Fittingly, Arizona’s last conference win came at the expense of UCLA (3-3, 2-1), who the Wildcats have defeated four straight times. That gives interim head coach Tim Kish a golden opportunity to post a win in his debut after 36 years as an assistant.

The Bruins have alternated wins and losses in their first six games and are coming off a less-than-inspiring 28-25 victory over Washington State at the Rose Bowl on Oct. 8. Now, it’s time to lose.

Opening point spread: Arizona by 3 1/2

The pick: Arizona 31-16

Final: Arizona 48-12

No. 12 Kansas State at Kansas
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, FSN

There’s been more Sunflower Showdowns (109) than World Series (107), so that’s one reason to take notice when these in-state rivals butt heads.

Kansas State (6-0, 3-0 in Big 12) has scored on 19 of its last 21 trips into the red zone. That trend should continue smoothly against Kansas (2-4, 0-3), which is yielding more than 26 first downs per game and allowing opponents to convert on third down at an alarming rate of 52.5 percent (both stats represent rock-bottom in the Big 12).

The Jayhawks’ most dangerous threat is D.J. Beshears’ kickoff returns. He got a workout in last week’s not-so-embarrassing 47-17 loss to Oklahoma and responded with 155 return yards.

Opening point spread: Kansas State by 11 1/2

The pick: Kansas State 38-20

Final: Kansas State 59-21

Week 8 record: 8-4
Total: 73-23

Stanford confirms hiring of Oklahoma D-line coach Diron Reynolds

Stanford coach David Shaw prepares to lead his team onto the field for an NCAA college football game against Oregon State, in Corvallis, Ore., Friday, Sept. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Timothy J. Gonzalez)
Associated Press
Leave a comment

Stanford has officially poached Bob Stoops‘ Oklahoma coaching staff.

Following up on reports from earlier in the week, the Cardinal confirmed in a press release Friday that Diron Reynolds has been added as David Shaw‘s defensive line coach.  The move is a return home of sorts for Reynolds as he served as an assistant defensive line coach for the Cardinal in 2014 before spending one season with the Sooners in 2015.

Reynolds replaces Randy Hart, who announced his retirement three days ago after spending six years at the school.

“We are very excited to have Diron return to Stanford,” said Shaw in a statement. “Not only did he work well with Coach Hart a year ago, he is well-versed in our scheme and brings a unique blend of college and NFL experience.”

In addition to his time at Stanford and Oklahoma, Reynolds served as an assistant line coach with the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings from 2007-13. Prior to that, he worked with the Indianapolis Colts from 2002-06.

Reynolds’ first job at the collegiate level came at his alma mater, Wake Forest, in 1999-2000. He was the defensive tackles coach at Indiana before moving on to a decade-long stint in the NFL.

Done Knott: Iowa State LB ends injury-plagued career

IOWA CITY, IA - SEPTEMBER 13:  Running back Damon Bullock #5 of the Iowa Hawkeyes dives in front of linebacker Luke Knott #21, of the Iowa State Cyclones, in the first quarter, on September 13, 2014 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.  (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Leave a comment

Never fully healthy since an initial injury, Luke Knott has decided to hang up his cleats and get on with his post-football life.

Iowa State announced in a press release Friday that Knott will forego his final season of eligibility in the sport because of lingering hip issues.  The linebacker first hurt the joint in 2013, which forced him to undergo his first surgery.  A year later, he was forced to undergo another medical procedure.  In April of last year, he suffered a setback in his battle with the ongoing hip issues.

Despite the surgeries and setbacks, Knott managed to play in all 24 games the past two seasons, starting eight of those contests.  Knott started five games as a redshirt freshman in 2013 before the initial injury sidelined him after six games.

In 2014, he was third on the team in tackles despite never being 100-percent healthy.

Below is a statement from Knott, followed by one from first-year head coach Matt Campbell:

Obviously, I thought about this a lot. Two years ago when I had my first hip surgery, my first thought was, ‘I’m a 19-year-old kid and I am having hip surgery?’ I made the decision to take it head on, go through rehabilitation and keep playing football. Then I had hip surgery again a year later. That was the first time I thought that football may not be in the best interest for me. I didn’t want to give up football because I didn’t want to walk away from my teammates. I barely made it through last season. You can tell when you watch the film. This is an exciting time for Iowa State and I wanted to be a part something special next year. However, going through the initial workouts, I just didn’t have it in my hip. It’s time start a different career. I have to start thinking long term. I want to be able to run around with my kids, and something like that puts it in perspective. I want to thank Coach Campbell and his staff. They were really understanding and helped ease my mind. They knew my history. This coaching staff knows what they are doing. I told Coach Campbell that the hardest thing for me was to walk away now when I feel we are on the cusp of something great. I already have a job lined up in Kansas City after graduation. Coach Campbell told us to use college football to get a degree and a career, and I felt that I have done that. I want to thank all of my coaches, my teammates and the fans. I’ve enjoyed every minute of my time as a Cyclone.”

“I don’t know if anybody loves Iowa State football more than Luke Knott. Luke obviously comes from a great family and a great tradition at Iowa State. You just want to put your arms around a kid like Luke, because here is a guy who was straining and doing everything in his power to play, but his body wouldn’t allow him to play anymore. The thing that I appreciate more than anything is that he has already been a part of the culture change here. He was doing a tremendous job leading our program. I hope Luke stays around us. He’s a special young man and he’s already left a great legacy here at Iowa State because of his commitment to be the best.

Akron the new home for transferring Ohio State RB Warren Ball

PISCATAWAY, NJ - OCTOBER 24: Warren Ball #28 of the Ohio State Buckeyes in action against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during a game at High Point Solutions Stadium on October 24, 2015 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
Getty Images
Leave a comment

Warren Ball may be leaving Ohio State, but he’s not leaving the state of Ohio.

The OSU running back has decided to transfer out of the Buckeyes football program and continue his collegiate playing career elsewhere.  Specifically, that continuation will involve a 125-mile move to the northeast as George Thomas of the Akron Beacon Journal reports that Ball will enroll at Akron and play his football for Terry Bowden‘s Zips.

As Ball is set to graduate from OSU this semester, he will be eligible to play immediately in 2016.  This upcoming season will be his final year of eligibility.

Ball was a four-star member of OSU’s 2012 recruiting class, rated as the No. 16 running back in the country; the No. 12 player at any position in the state of Ohio; and the No. 193 player overall by Rivals.com.  Ball ran for 189 yards on 41 carries the past three seasons, with 28 of those yards coming on 10 2015 carries.

ElevenWarriors.com writes that “Ball’s apparent transfer has no impact on Ohio State’s scholarship grid for 2016, as he was already on his way out of the program following last season,” adding that “[t]he Buckeyes still sit at 87 scholarships after National Signing Day.”

‘Unlikely’ Louisville’s Trevon Young is able to play in 2016

Trevon Young
Louisville athletics
Leave a comment

An injury at the end of the 2015 season could have a significant impact on Louisville’s defense for the whole of the 2016 season.

Linebacker Trevon Young sustained both a dislocated and fractured hip in the UofL’s Music City Bowl win over Texas A&M late last December. A day later, Young underwent surgery to, the Louisville Courier Journal writes, “put his femur back in place and insert a plate around a chipped piece of his hip socket.”

Six weeks later, Young remains on crutches, and will remain on them for at least another five weeks as part of a rehab process that could take as little as eight months to as many as a dozen. As a result, Miles Young, the player’s father, tells the Courier-Journal it’s unlikely his son will play during the 2016 season.

The injury that will likely cost Young the upcoming is certainly a unique and rare one, but one that’s not expected to be Bo-level bad.

The doctor in Nashville told the family he had not seen a similar hip injury suffered in a football game – only in a traumatic event like a car accident – however the bone fracture was less severe than originally feared, so “it wasn’t as bad as it could have been,” Miles Young said.

Mr. Young said, to his understanding, the fracture is considerably less serious than the infamous one suffered by former star NFL running back Bo Jackson in the early 1990s.

While Young was just a part-time starter in 2015, his 8.5 sacks were second on the team and seventh among all ACC players.He had been expected to be a more significant contributor to the Cardinals’ defense in 2016.

The expected loss of Young is compounded by the transfers last month of Keith Brown (HERE) and Nick Dawson-Brents (HERE), a pair of linebackers who combined to play in 26 games last season.