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Predictions 101 — Week 8

The Swami AP

Back to our winning ways, we went 7-5 in Week 7 vs. “the number.”

For the second week in a row, the only blemishes on our 10-2 straight-up mark were a couple of foolish reaches for upsets (Wake Forest over Virginia Tech, and Cal over USC).

If there’s gonna be an upset this week, it’ll be a doozy. The board is littered with ranked teams involved in contests with double-digit pointspreads, in some cases even against another ranked team. Our top game is one such matchup, but that “Clash of Champions” deserves attention … at least at the start.

After 84 games, we’re 54-26-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 65-19.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 20 thru Sat., Oct. 22)

1) No. 19 Auburn at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Oct. 22 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

With all of LSU’s success it seems rather odd that the Tigers haven’t opened a season with eight consecutive victories since 1973.

Auburn (5-2, 3-1 in SEC), fresh off a win over Florida, intends on keeping it that way. The defending national champs did capture last year’s meeting, but that was at home on the Plains and Cam Newton, not Clint Moseley, was taking the snaps.

Moseley, a sophomore with only nine attempts under his belt, will be the third consecutive first-time starter that LSU (7-0, 4-0) will be facing. Florida’s Jacoby Brissett and Tennessee’s Matt Simms were treated rather rudely in a pair of losses (41-11 and 38-7, respectively) during the past two weeks.

LSU’s wicked defense will focus on Auburn running back Michael Dyer and dare Moseley to try is luck. That won’t turn out well, but Gene Chizik’s biggest problem is his inadequate defense matching up against LSU’s two-quarterback attack, hellbent on making up for last season’s rocky showing at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Opening point spread: LSU by 21

The pick: LSU 39-13

Final: LSU 45-10

2) No. 4 Wisconsin at No. 15 Michigan State
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of “Coach Hedanz” from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

Little brother demoralized big brother again, knocking Michigan from the unbeatens last week. Well-balanced Sparty is turning heads, and no offense meant towards any previous Michigan State opponent or even “Honey Badger” Tyrann Mathieu, but this Badger team is a whole different animal.

With the No. 1 scoring offense, a top-10 defense and this year’s answer to Cam Newton, look out no matter who you are. Nebraska will testify to the dominance of Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0 in Big Ten). The only chink in the Badger armor is that they are not yet road tested.

Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) owns the nation’s top-rated pass defense and is second in total defense. Last week, the Spartans held down the Michigan offense, keeping Shoelace Robinson in check. Balanced and talented, MSU is fully capable of protecting its house.

The problem, Wisconsin is balanced and more talented.

Michigan State will hold its own against the powerful Badgers for a while, but just like against Notre Dame, the Spartans will struggle to get points on the board and simply give too many opportunities to the Wisconsin offensive juggernaut led by Russell Wilson and Montee Ball.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 6 1/2

The pick: Wisconsin 45-17

Final: Michigan State 37-31

3) No. 22 Washington at No. 7 Stanford
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Fed a steady diet of Pac-12 bottom feeders, the Cardinal are finally gonna be tested. Or will they?

Washington (5-1, 3-0 in Pac-12) travels to The Farm determined to make themselves famous at the expense of Stanford (6-0, 4-0), which has faced Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Washington State, after opening with non-conference wins over San Jose State and Duke. One might consider this to be Stanford’s season opener.

Everyone knows what Andrew Luck is all about, so attention ought to shift over to Husky quarterback Keith Price, who has posted some Luck-esque numbers so far this season … 69 percent completion rate, 1,466 yards passing, 21 touchdown tosses and only four interceptions. (Luck’s line is 69%, 1,719, 18 and 3, and he hasn’t been sacked in the last four games.)

If running back Chris Polk can find a way to balance out the Washington attack, the Huskies will make the Cardinal work a full 60 minutes for this one.

Opening point spread: Final: Stanford by 19 1/2

The pick: Stanford 35-27

Final: Stanford 65-21

4) Tennessee at No. 2 Alabama
Sat., Oct. 22 — 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The “Third Saturday in October” will be the “Second Blowout in Two Weeks.”

That’s not a dig at Tennessee (3-3, 0-3 in SEC). That’s just how it goes when you play the top two teams in the country back-to-back. Ahhh … life in the SEC.

Alabama (7-0, 4-0) has a defense that the Carolina Panthers could use. The stats are downright silly. Seven points and 184 yards (38 rushing) allowed per game? C’mon …

Last week, the Crimson Tide allowed Mississippi to gain 72 yards on its first possession and then closed all roads for the Rebels, limiting them to just 69 yards for the remainder of the 52-7 cakewalk.

And then, you’ve got the Bama offense, led by tailback Trent Richardson, who will go over the 1,000-yard mark in the first quarter.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 27 1/2

The pick: Alabama 35-3

Final: Alabama 37-6

5) USC at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 22 — 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

In the lengthy history of college football’s greatest intersectional rivalry, this is only the 10th time that both teams come into the annual throwdown unranked.

If Lane Kiffin is wondering why he’s the first USC coach to be 5-1 yet unranked, somebody needs to tell him that he lost his only game of significance so far this season, a 43-22 meltdown at Arizona State.

Notre Dame (4-2) was inexplicably victorious at the Coliseum last year, snapping an eight-game losing streak to the Trojans, as Irish backup quarterback Tommy Rees beat USC fill-in Mitch Mustain.

This year Rees and the rest of the Notre Dame squad is far more settled within the Brian Kelly regime.

Weak in the coaching department and continually bizarre on special teams, USC (5-1, 3-1 in Pac-12) is in prime position to get schooled by Kelly & Co.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 9

The pick: Notre Dame 34-23

Final: USC 31-17

6) North Carolina at No. 8 Clemson
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, ESPN

This is a dangerous game for the Tigers. After rallying from a 35-17 deficit to post an emotional 56-45 victory at Maryland last Saturday, Clemson (7-0, 4-0 in ACC) is riding high and there’s talk of a table being run.

With all of that swirling around Death Valley, there could easily be a tendency to look past North Carolina (5-2, 1-2) and ahead to the crucial showdown with Georgia Tech that looms next week in Atlanta.

We envision Dabo Swinney having to do some extra chest-bumping in the second half to get his Tigers roaring.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 9 1/2

The pick: Clemson 31-24

Final: Clemson 59-38

7) Texas Tech at No. 3 Oklahoma
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The Red Raiders average 44 points and 372 passing yards per game, but unfortunately they also have yielded a total of 86 points in the last two outings, losses at home to No. 17 Texas A&M and No. 11 Kansas State.

As Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2 in Big 12) visits Norman for the second consecutive season, one of the few — very few — things that Tommy Tuberville has going for him is the fact that the Sooners have those same ranked teams next up. Perhaps they’ll be looking ahead to that crucial section of the schedule.

Oklahoma (6-0, 3-0) has 24 sacks so far this season, including 13 in the last two games. That’s got to have Red Raider quarterback Seth Doege and his offensive line on edge.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 28

The pick: Oklahoma 42-20

Final: Texas Tech 41-38

8 ) No. 11 West Virginia at Syracuse
Fri., Oct. 21 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Orange won’t be able to sneak up on the Mountaineers like they did last year in Morgantown. Besides the fact that it already happened, both teams had last weekend off to prepare for this one and the primetime spotlight has a way of adding intense focus.

Syracuse (4-2, 0-1 in Big East) is expected to welcome back defensive end Chandler Jones and strong safety Olando Fisher, who both missed the past five games due to injuries sustained in the opener. It’s doubtful that the reinforcements will be enough to plug the holes in a unit that ranks 112th in pass defense.

West Virginia (5-1, 1-0), which has scored 98 points in its last two games, will gladly take full advantage. Mountaineer quarterback Geno Smith has been on a rampage as of late, passing for 1,539 yards in his last four games.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 14

The pick: West Virginia 39-20

Final: Syracuse 49-23

9) Fresno State at Nevada
Sat., Oct. 22 — 4:05 p.m. ET, WAC Sports Network

We’re not sure this amounts to even half a hill of beans, but we see this game as the Western Athletic Conference championship. Both the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack have to face Hawaii down the stretch, but the Warriors don’t seem to have their usual fight this season. (Maybe none of these teams want to take the WAC title belt over to the MWC).

Nevada (3-3, 1-0 in WAC) has been busy pistol whipping UNLV and New Mexico at home by a combined score of 86-7 in the past two weeks, after opening the season with four consecutive road games.

The Wolf Pack, who won a 35-34 thriller last season, are averaging 249 yards per game on the ground. That’ll be a tough matchup for Fresno State (3-4, 2-0), which owns the 89th rushing defense in the nation.

These two teams are liable to play hot-potato with the football. The Bulldogs rank 104th in turnover margin and the Wolf Pack are even worse at 117th.

Opening point spread: Nevada by 8 1/2

The pick: Nevada 38-21

Final: Nevada 45-38

10) No. 6 Oklahoma State at Missouri
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, FX

After back-to-back road victories over Texas and a lofty position in the initial BCS rankings, it’s perfectly natural for us to assume that the Cowboys are pleased with themselves and might not be completely focused on an opponent they’ve played (and beaten) only twice since 2005.

This matchup also represents the fourth time in the last five games that Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0 in Big 12) is playing on the road. That has to catch up with the ‘Boys at some point.

Missouri (3-3, 1-2) tuned up for this one with a 52-17 victory over Iowa State last week. The five-TD margin of victory was the Tigers’ biggest since 2008.

We’re not suggesting that the Cowboys, who have won their last eight games on the road, will drop this one, but it won’t be business as usual.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 6 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 28-26

Final: Oklahoma State 45-24

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

UCLA at Arizona
Thurs., Oct. 20 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif. Hopefully he knows as much about bad coaching in college football as he does good coaching in AYSO and thoroughbred horse racing.

An otherwise snoozer gains intrigue due to the revolving head coaching door at the midway point of the season. After Arizona (1-5, 0-4 in Pac-12) fired Mike Stoops last week and ex-UCLA head honcho Bob Toledo resigned at Tulane this week, some among the Bruin faithful are hopeful the saying “never two without three” holds true and head coach Rick Neuheisel (18-25 since taking over for Karl Dorrell) is shown the door much sooner than later.

It could happen after an embarrassing performance under the national TV spotlight against a Wildcat squad that has lost five in a row and eight straight in league play. Fittingly, Arizona’s last conference win came at the expense of UCLA (3-3, 2-1), who the Wildcats have defeated four straight times. That gives interim head coach Tim Kish a golden opportunity to post a win in his debut after 36 years as an assistant.

The Bruins have alternated wins and losses in their first six games and are coming off a less-than-inspiring 28-25 victory over Washington State at the Rose Bowl on Oct. 8. Now, it’s time to lose.

Opening point spread: Arizona by 3 1/2

The pick: Arizona 31-16

Final: Arizona 48-12

No. 12 Kansas State at Kansas
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, FSN

There’s been more Sunflower Showdowns (109) than World Series (107), so that’s one reason to take notice when these in-state rivals butt heads.

Kansas State (6-0, 3-0 in Big 12) has scored on 19 of its last 21 trips into the red zone. That trend should continue smoothly against Kansas (2-4, 0-3), which is yielding more than 26 first downs per game and allowing opponents to convert on third down at an alarming rate of 52.5 percent (both stats represent rock-bottom in the Big 12).

The Jayhawks’ most dangerous threat is D.J. Beshears’ kickoff returns. He got a workout in last week’s not-so-embarrassing 47-17 loss to Oklahoma and responded with 155 return yards.

Opening point spread: Kansas State by 11 1/2

The pick: Kansas State 38-20

Final: Kansas State 59-21

Week 8 record: 8-4
Total: 73-23

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22 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 8”
  1. richatthelake says: Oct 19, 2011 11:08 AM

    It’s the “Sunflower Showdown” not the “Sunshine Showdown,” not that anybody cares outside the state of ks.

  2. thekatman says: Oct 19, 2011 11:36 AM

    Folks underestimate SC right now, and that’s OK, because, they’re not bowl eligible. Notre Dame thinks they’re “all that” and are highly over rated…. USC 48 ND 24. Brian Kelly will be put in his place again. More yelling and bursting blood vessels at the players. If I were a videographer, I’d refuse to go up in a crane to film the game.

  3. southernpatriots says: Oct 19, 2011 11:56 AM

    We predicted on this blog in previous weeks LSU 40 – 10 over Florida and Tennessee. Since those were so close, we will do the same 40 – 10 LSU over Auburn. Tyrann and Company will run havoc over the Auburn offense. 4 Takeaways. Lee will perform well. LSU’s running backs will have a good day and LSU’s offense will have the ball 6 minutes more than Auburn. As close as LSU made the game last year, Auburn cannot return the favor this year.

    We wish Washington and West Virginia all the best and hope they win. Geno Smith for WVU will send passes flying and receivers will be catching. As John indicated the attention will be on Luck while Washington’s QB will put up similar numbers. If Washington is able to get their running game going along with the passes, Washington will beat Stanford by 3.

    Notre Dame could not let Michigan have a night game and they not have one, but this one may have a different outcome for the home team. Dysfunctionality and under NCAA sanctions, USC will pull off an upset. 30 – 27.

  4. thompgk says: Oct 19, 2011 12:07 PM

    Auburns defensive playcalling matches up a lot better with LSUs offensive style than it did with Arkansas or Clemson. They are also playing a lot better assignment football as the pups on defense gain experience.

    Auburn is not going to go crazy and take a bunch of chances and LSU isn’t going to go pass crazy and risk turnovers themselves.

    The game will be low scoring IMO, and LSU could blank Auburn, but I don’t see them putting up 40 points.

    LSU – 26
    Auburn – 10

  5. southernpatriots says: Oct 19, 2011 1:05 PM

    We are the bearers of bad new for LSU football fans:

    This Saturday in the game against Auburn in Deaf/Death Valley, LSU will be breaking with tradition and wearing Nike Pro Combat Uniforms for the second time, the last time was in the Arkansas game in 2009 (alot of good it did them then.)

    This year’s version is all white, according to Nike: “brilliant white jersy, adorned with gold as well as prestigious, royal purple sleeves and detailing. An image of the white tiger mascot is emblazoned across the front chest of the baselayer to represent the player’s indominable spirit. Vibrant gold detail in the cleat is further testament to a tiger’s reputation as the “King of Beasts” in Japan and China, while the gold and purple gloves provide a secure, claw-like grip.”

    Note: That was Nike’s description, not ours!

    Sadly, LSU has joined the fashion parade and is one of nine top programs wearing the Nike Pro Combat system of unis this season.

    LSU’s normal unis were classic and of good taste. They were not broken…why change?

    Before we become more nauseated than we already are, we will close.

  6. pricecube says: Oct 19, 2011 2:53 PM

    I agree with the predictions with the exception of USC/Notre Dame. I think USC wins that one. The Nevada Fresno State game I do not know enough about to have a clue. I haven’t had a chance to see either team all year… not really sure I want to. No offense to anyone intended.

  7. southernpatriots says: Oct 19, 2011 3:16 PM

    With the lastest revelations from the LSU (formerly Daily) Reveille reporter and yet to be confirmed, though likely will be:

    Tyrann Mathieu–one of the best defensive players in college football, LSU defensive cornerback

    Spencer Ware–the best LSU running back

    3rd player yet unnamed

    –All three failed a drug test and will be suspended for the Auburn game and maybe beyond. Details yet unknown, but bad news for the LSU team and fans.

  8. kiopta1 says: Oct 19, 2011 3:43 PM

    Will you USC beating ND fans still be here the morning after? I doubt it.

  9. statesenator says: Oct 19, 2011 3:48 PM

    “Michigan State will hold its own against the powerful Badgers for a while, but just like against Notre Dame, the Spartans will struggle to get points on the board and simply give too many opportunities to the Wisconsin offensive juggernaut led by Russell Wilson and Montee Ball.

    The pick: Wisconsin 45-17″

    As a Spartans fan, I think you’re being far too kind with that final score. We’re dead meat.

  10. pricecube says: Oct 19, 2011 3:49 PM

    @sopats

    Bad news… but you should still dominate Auburn. I still cannot get over Auburn needing a miracle to beat Utah State in their season opener. If Tyrann et al. are out for Bama that would be tragic. The game should be epic. Not a fan of either school but looking forward to it regardless.

  11. pricecube says: Oct 19, 2011 3:55 PM

    @kiota1

    I’ll be here… I don’t really care who wins that game honestly… Just my opinion…

  12. zeebanaybuh says: Oct 19, 2011 4:54 PM

    You’re nuts if you think Wisconsin is going to put up 45 against MSU – and same to you, senator. You think MSU’s lockdown D is only six points better than Indiana? Three points better than Nebraska, which gave up four tds to Ohio State? Are you even paying attention here?

    Wisconsin is favored, but this game is at State and Wilson has been shaky in road games in the past. Thirty points would be awfully good and something like 21 is far more likely. So far, Nebraska is the only good team they’ve played and they’re turned out to be less than advertised – count on Sparty to make a game of it and don’t be surprised if they come out with the upset.

  13. mdoche says: Oct 21, 2011 1:08 AM

    The tip jar is open. :)

  14. nsr300 says: Oct 22, 2011 1:58 AM

    Not sure what you mean by the 35-point victory being the Missouri Tigers’ biggest since 2008.
    09/17/2011 MU 69 – Western Illinois 0
    09/25/2010 MU 51 – Miami (OH) 13
    09/11/2010 MU 50 – McNeese 6
    09/19/2009 MU 52 – Furman 12
    Largest conference margin of victory, yes.
    And the 6 1/2 spread is a sucker bet. Vegas is gonna make a lot of money on this game.

  15. herman404 says: Oct 22, 2011 2:11 PM

    While MSU may loose we can all say they have been a good team over the past few years. One thing to remember is MSU has a difficult time recruiting nationally , so talent does give us problems from time to time.

    MSU will fight. I hope they win!

    GO GREEN!

  16. southernpatriots says: Oct 22, 2011 5:25 PM

    21 – 3 LSU Tigers over Auburn Tigers at the end of the first half. The LSU defensive line has been in the backfield. LSU’s defensive end Barkevious Mingo is often 7 yards deep keeping company with the Auburn QB. LSU offense has capitalized on Auburn penalties including a facemask penalty. Accurate passing by Lee and Jefferson and an effective running game has given LSU the advantage in the first half.

    There remains 30 minutes of play remaining and the game is 60 minutes long of which Coach Miles often reminds the team. We look forward to great play in the second half, as LSU plays the undefeated National Champions of this past season–the Auburn Tigers. Our predicted score 40 – 10 LSU, same as past two games.

    Geaux Tigers in the Second Half!

  17. southernpatriots says: Oct 22, 2011 7:13 PM

    Second verse, same as the first…during a point of 2 minutes 14 seconds LSU scored 24 points. The John Chavis defense was superb. LSU was completedly dominate in the second half. The final score…LSU 45, Auburn 10…predicted 40 – 10.

    Now to prepare for Alabama…

  18. southernpatriots says: Oct 22, 2011 7:29 PM

    thompgk says:Oct 19, 2011 12:07 PM, please re-read your post on this date. You just did not get anything correct in it did you?

    We predicted 40 – 10 just for fun since we had predicted the same against Florida and were very close, then against Tennessee and were very close and now against Auburn and were very close. Final score 45 – 10. Largest score in the series?

    We usually don’t predict scores but just for fun we did it. Have a great day! We wish Auburn the best of success the rest of the year/season.

  19. pricecube says: Oct 23, 2011 6:27 PM

    @kiopta1

    Hello … it is the day after USC beat the crap out of Notre Dame … and I am still here as I said I would be. Are you?

  20. southernpatriots says: Oct 23, 2011 8:00 PM

    pricecube:

    Do you think USC can also dispatch with Stanford?

  21. pricecube says: Oct 23, 2011 11:45 PM

    @sopats

    That is a tough call… I think Stanford wins by a touchdown. The USC secondary is mediocre and would be shredded by Andrew Luck … but I think Monte Kiffin will figure out some way to prevent a blowout… what do I know though? If I had any confidence in my predictions I would gamble… I never gamble.
    :)

  22. southernpatriots says: Oct 24, 2011 12:10 AM

    pricecube: We like your reasoning. Stanford’s SOS is about 100th in the nation which is pitiful. Thought maybe USC could provide some competition, but understand they may not. Thanks for helping us understand that upcoming game better.

    Tubby at Texas Tech has us impressed with a great game plan to beat Oklahoma. Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State are probably wearing out the game videos.

    We don’t gamble either for similar reasons.

    Thanks again.

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