The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 9


It was bound to happen. No, not Oklahoma finally losing in Norman. P101 having a losing week.

For the first time all season, we were sub .500 vs. “the number,” going 5-7 in Week 8. With all that heavy lumber littering last week’s board, we just couldn’t seem to end up on the right side.

Despite a historic Hail Mary and Dayne Crist’s inability to take a snap, we still posted a 8-4 straight-up mark.

After 96 games, we’re 59-33-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 73-23.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 27 thru Sat., Oct. 29)

1) No. 6 Clemson at Georgia Tech
Sat., Oct. 29 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

It’ll be interesting to see how the Tigers handle being up on the pedestal. It’s one thing for young players and coaches to climb, but an entirely different challenge to stay.

Clemson (8-0, 5-0 in ACC), which is now ranked fifth in the BCS standings, hasn’t opened a season with nine consecutive victories since its 1981 national championship team rolled all the way to 12-0. Pretty lofty stuff all the way around.

After a pair of disappointing losses at Virginia and Miami, Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) is happy to be back at home, hosting an opponent that offers the opportunity to have some of its swagger stolen.

The Yellow Jackets have won six of their last eight meetings with the Tigers, who didn’t look particularly sharp in their previous road game, needing to embark on a torrid comeback to beat Maryland, 56-45.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4 1/2

The pick: Georgia Tech 32-31

Final: Georgia Tech 31-17

2) No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 10 Kansas State
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

After last Saturday’s debacle in Norman, the Sooners are jumping at the opportunity to get out of town and escape to the seclusion of the Little Apple.

Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1 in Big 12) clearly showed in its shocking 41-38 loss to Texas Tech that it can be hurt through the air. Unfortunately for Kansas State (7-0, 4-0), Collin Klein isn’t the sort of quarterback who can take advantage. He rushed for four touchdowns in last week’s 59-21 victory over Kansas and is more of a dual-threat type.

Although its passing component ranks last in the Big 12 and 110th in the nation, the Wildcats’ ball-control offense has a shot to limit Sooner possessions, but can’t be expected to match scores. Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones has already passed for 2,589 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, and should eventually wear down the hosts.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 31-21

Final: Oklahoma 58-17

3) No. 9 Michigan State at No. 13 Nebraska
Sat., Oct. 29 — noon ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i.

Sparty won an incredible game last Saturday on a Hail Mary and controls its own destiny in the Legends Division and could possibly earn a rematch versus Wisconsin in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan State (6-1, 3-0 in Big Ten) is the country’s darling right now.

Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) wants some love too. The Cornhuskers also control their own Legends destiny and have Michigan State right where they want them … in Lincoln, following an emotional game and likely tired from a brutal stretch.

The Spartans, who have had to deal with Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin already this month, are not the same team on the road, where miracles are hard to come by. Don’t forget about the 31-13 decision they dropped to less-than-impressive Notre Dame.

William Gholston is returning to Michigan State after a suspension. This beast of a defensive end will get optioned by Nebraska as the Huskers go “old school” and stick to its strength at home, the run game.

The Nebraska running attack will open things up for the occasional shot down the field. Although Taylor Martinez is no Andrew Luck, the Spartans will be so focused on stopping the run that Husker wideouts will be wide open for a couple big plays.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 3 1/2

The pick: Nebraska 27-24

Final: Nebraska 24-3

4) Baylor at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2

The arrival of Robert Griffin III in Stillwater should garner lots of attention, but it’ll still be a challenge for the Cowboys to concentrate on the now.

Being slotted third in the BCS standings is more than enough to weigh on the mind of a team, but that gets even heavier when the top two teams have a date to lock horns next week. Furthermore, Oklahoma State (7-0, 4-0 in Big 12) has a humongous game of its own next week as it hosts Kansas State (currently undefeated at 7-0).

Baylor (4-2, 1-2) has dropped both of its road games this season, including its most recent outing, a 55-28 loss at Texas A&M in which the Bears surrendered 681 total yards. Yikes.

Both defenses allow more than 425 yards and 26.7 points per game. Combine that with the offensive weaponry on both squads and we will be looking at a total somewhere north of 80.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma St. by 15

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-34

Final: Oklahoma State 59-24

5) No. 4 Stanford at No. 20 USC
Sat., Oct. 29 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

What’s with the ‘World Wide Leader?’ We’ve got this matchup ranked in the middle of the road, but ‘College GameDay’ is caravanning out to the Coliseum. Besides Desmond really wanting to go purse shopping on Rodeo Drive, we don’t get it.

Stanford (7-0, 5-0 in Pac-12) plays the kind of football that USC (6-1, 3-1) was synonymous with for decades — physical on both sides of the line, balanced on offense, unrelenting on defense. The Cardinal are simply machine-like in their destruction of the opposition, winning their last 10 games by at least 26 points. Last week, they rushed for a school-record 446 yards in a 65-21 victory over Washington.

Don’t get fooled into thinking that playing at the Coliseum benefits the Trojans. Incredibly, Stanford has won four of its last six games on USC’s home turf. And remember that this year’s Trojans were gracious hosts to Minnesota (two-point win), Utah (17-14, before score magically changed) and Arizona (surrendered 41 points).

Opening point spread: Stanford by 9 1/2

The pick: Stanford 37-21

Final: Stanford 56-48, 3OT

6) No. 22 Georgia vs. Florida (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Ever since John Brantley injured his ankle against Alabama on Oct. 1, the Gators haven’t tasted victory. The senior quarterback should be back in the saddle on Saturday, giving Florida (4-3, 2-3 in SEC) a good shot at avoiding a four-game losing streak, which would be its longest since 1988.

Georgia (5-2, 4-1), however, is intent on winning its sixth game in a row and turning things around against the Gators, who have won the last three games in the series and 18 of the last 21.

The Bulldogs still have a lot to prove. Their four SEC wins have come against teams with a combined conference record of 1-15, which is truly horrific since the lone victory among that group came at the expense of a member (Vandy over Ole Miss).

Having a pair of key defenders — lineman Kwame Geathers and safety Shawn Williams — suspended for the first half doesn’t help.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 1

The pick: Florida 24-21

Final: Georgia 24-20

7) Navy at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Under normal circumstances — meaning no five-game losing streak for a team that’s been to eight consecutive bowl games — nothing this side of Army means more to the Midshipmen than butting heads with the Fighting Irish.

This season, with a bowl game in jeopardy and a loss to Air Force having already dented Commander-in-Chief Trophy hopes, Navy (2-5) has an ultra-intense focus on Notre Dame (4-3).

Conversely, the Irish are candidates to play this one scared. Having already lost three of its last four to the Middies, there’s lots of pressure on Notre Dame, which self-destructed last Saturday in a 31-17 loss to USC. Not only did the Irish give away the football three times in the second half, they also demonstrated a stunning inability to stop the run.

“I’m not going to tolerate it,” Brian Kelly said, after the loss to the Trojans. “It’s not going to be pretty this week in practice. If we gotta go back and tackle every day, we’ll tackle every day.”

Maybe that’ll help, but if USC can rush for 219 yards at Notre Dame, working with a previously maligned offensive line, what will the triple-option Midshipmen, who average 325 rushing yards per game and 5.7 per carry, do to the Irish?

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 20

The pick: Notre Dame 38-31

Final: Notre Dame 56-14

8) No. 12 Wisconsin at Ohio State
Sat., Oct. 29 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The damage has been done. Michigan State’s Hail Mary was answered. The Badgers just can’t let that play beat them for a second time. Carrying any sort of woe-is-me hangover into another road game would be a disaster for Wisconsin (6-1, 2-1 in Big Ten), which needs this one to stay on course to winning the Leaders Division.

Ohio State (4-3, 1-2) doesn’t have anything even remotely resembling the passing attack that Michigan State used last Saturday to beat the Badgers. Buckeye freshman quarterback Braxton Miller hasn’t completed more than five passes or thrown for more than 95 yards in any game since the opener. That’s a far cry from Spartan veteran Kirk Cousins, who went 22-of-31 for 290 yards and three touchdowns to get it done last week versus Wisconsin.

We trust that Bret Bielema will make sure the Badgers bounce back strong.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 7 1/2

The pick: Wisconsin 31-13

Final: Ohio State 33-29

9) No. 25 West Virginia at Rutgers
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Last year, the Mountaineers were two-touchdown favorites over Syracuse and dropped a 19-14 decision.

Last week, West Virginia (5-2, 1-1 in Big East) was a 14-point favorite over the Orange and it happened again … only worse. This time, the Mounties got pummeled, 49-23.

If you’re expecting Rutgers (5-2, 2-1) to feel the brunt of a let’s-bounce-back-and-get-this-right effort from West Virginia, please remember that the Mountaineers followed up last season’s loss to Syracuse by getting upset by Connecticut in overtime, 16-13.

After getting picked off twice and sacked four times versus the Orange, WVU QB Geno Smith will have his hands full with a Scarlet Knight pass rush that ranks first in the Big East with 24 sacks on the season.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 5 1/2

The pick: Rutgers 24-23

Final: West Virginia 41-31

10) No. 14 South Carolina at Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 29 — 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

The future is now for a pair of teams in the midst of opposite campaigns.

Tennessee (3-4, 0-4 in SEC) turns to true freshman quarterback Justin Worley, last year’s Gatorade National Player of the Year, who gets thrown into the fire in his first collegiate start as the top-ranked and well-rested South Carolina (6-1, 4-1) pass defense travels to Knoxville.

With all-everything tailback Marcus Lattimore lost for the season due to a knee injury, the Gamecocks’ hopes of remaining atop the SEC East standings rest with sophomore quarterback Connor Shaw, who is likely to struggle as he did two weeks ago against Mississippi State since his ground attack becomes much easier to contain with freshman Brandon Wilds carrying the load.

The Vols, who came up empty through the first four games of their SEC gauntlet, have beaten South Carolina in all but one of its last 15 trips to Neyland Stadium.

Opening point spread: South Carolina by 3 1/2

The pick: Tennessee 23-17

Final: South Caroliona 14-3


Rice at No. 18 Houston
Thurs., Oct. 27 — 8 p.m. ET, FSN

The Cougars have one more Thursday night game to consider watching (Nov. 10 at Tulane), but this “Bayou Bucket” matchup is sure to be something else with the nation’s No. 1 squad in terms of total offense hosting a team that ranks 115th in total defense. Let the fun begin!

Led by record-setting quarterback Case Keenum, who has accounted for 17,173 yards of total offense and 150 touchdowns in his collegiate career, Houston (7-0, 3-0) has scored a total of 224 points in its last four games.

Rice (2-5, 1-3), on the other hand, has scored more than 28 points just once this season and that was in a 56-31 loss at Baylor on Sept. 24.

The last time the Owls made the six-mile trek across town to Robertson Stadium, they got eviscerated, 73-14. The fact that Rice upset Houston last year, 34-31, doesn’t help the Owls’ chances.

The price might seem steep, but we feel it’s a bargain.

Opening point spread: Houston by 25 1/2

The pick: Houston 56-23

Final: Houston 73-34

Missouri at No. 16 Texas A&M
Sat., Oct. 29 — Noon ET, FX

This soon-to-be-SEC matchup isn’t quite Alabama-LSU, but it will be intriguing.

Missouri (3-4, 1-3 in Big 12) ran out of gas and into turnovers in last Saturday’s attempted upset of Oklahoma State. If the Tigers can be less generous, their balanced attack, which averages 238 yards on the ground (tops in the league) and 253 through the air, could give Texas A&M (5-2, 3-1) all sorts of problems.

The Aggies, who rank dead last in the nation in pass defense, also might have a distracted eye on next week’s trip to Norman.

We wouldn’t be surprised if overtime were required.

Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 15

The pick: Texas A&M 35-28

Final: Missouri 38-31, OT

Week 9 record: 7-5
Total: 80-28

Wazzu’s Gabe Marks suffers gruesome injury as UW becomes bowl-eligible with Apple Cup win

Gabe Marks
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Washington State came into Saturday’s Apple Cup without prolific quarterback Luke Falk because of injury.  They’ve now exited it without Falk’s top target because of the same issue.

Late in the fourth quarter of No. 20 Wazzu’s 45-10 loss to Washington, Gabe Marks was on the receiving end of a five-yard pass from first-time starter Peyton Bender.  The wide receiver was also on the receiving end of an awkward tackle that bent his ankle in a way that God never intended and left him with what could very well be broken bones in the leg.

Marks was carted off the field and did not return.  There has been no update on the specific nature of the injury, although it appears that it may be serious enough to keep the junior from playing in the Cougars’ bowl game.

Coming into Week 13, Marks was fourth in the nation with 92 receptions and, with 1,067, is one of 19 players who have gone past 1,000 yards receiving.

And, to add scoreboard insult to literal injury, Marks’ fumble was returned by the Huskies for a touchdown.  That was the second of three defensive touchdowns for UW, with the third coming on Wazzu’s very next play from scrimmage on a pick-six.

The win pushed the Huskies to 6-6 and into a bowl in the second season under Chris Petersen.  The head coach just yesterday was awarded a two-year contract extension.

No. 4 Iowa puts finishing touches on first-ever 12-0 regular season

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In a season full of firsts, Iowa added yet another notch to its football history belt in Lincoln Friday.

Thanks in large part to its defense — and Tommy Armstrong Jr.‘s arm punts — Iowa was able to stake itself to a 14-10 halftime lead and then held on for a 28-17 win.  The Hawkeyes had previously gone unbeaten and untied in a season twice (1921,1922) and went unbeaten in its first two seasons of competition (1899, 1900).  The 12 wins is also a school record, breaking the mark of 11 previously held by head coach Kirk Ferentz‘s 2002 and 2009 squads.

It’s also the fifth 10-win season in Ferentz’s 17 seasons in Iowa City.  And, as was the case in the other four, it was a sturdy defense and low-risk offense that’s led the way to this perfect season.

While the Cornhuskers managed 433 yards of offense, the defense allowed just 20 points, with seven of those greatly aided by a muffed first-half punt.  NU ran 83 plays, meaning they averaged a little over five yards per play.

The Hawkeyes’ offense, meanwhile, ran just 44 plays in putting up 250 yards of offense.  Leading the way was Jordan Canzeri, who accounted for over half that yardage with 140 on the ground.  Canzeri also accounted for two of the Hawkeyes’ three offensive touchdowns, with the other coming off the arm of quarterback C.J. Beathard.

Amazingly, Iowa didn’t convert a single third down in nine attempts, while Nebraska converted seven of 16.  The most important stat, though was the Hawkeyes’ 4-1 edge in the turnover battle.

Armstrong Jr. tossed four interceptions, giving him a nation-leading 16 on the season.  He did throw for 296 yards in a loss that dropped the Cornhuskers to 5-7 and, in all likelihood, a bowl-less 2015 postseason.  While they could still go bowling if 80 teams don’t reach the six-win mark, they’ll likely stay home for the postseason for just the third time in the last 47 years (2004, 2007) in the first season under Mike Riley.

Iowa had previously wrapped up the Big Ten West division and a spot in the conference championship game.  UI will face Michigan State if the Spartans beat Penn State, or the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game should MSU falter.

A win over any of those three opponents would all but assure the Hawkeyes of one of the four spot in the second edition of the College Football Playoff.

UW RB Corey Clement reportedly won’t travel for Badgers-Gophers

MADISON, WI - NOVEMBER 21: Running back Corey Clement #6 of the Wisconsin Badgers is tackled by Nate Hall #32 of the Northwestern Wildcats on November 21, 2015 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by Tom Lynn/Getty Images)
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An off-field incident will reportedly sideline Corey Clement for what’s expected to be his final regular season game in a Wisconsin uniform.

Earlier this week, the running back was charged with two counts of disorderly conduct following an incident earlier this month.  The initial details had Clement attempting to break up a fight between the security guard at his off-campus residence and a group of individuals, which proved to be a false narrative as Clement was found to have thrown the first punch.

Because of the charges, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting, Clement will not travel with his teammates for Saturday’s game against Minnesota.  There’s no word on his status for the Badgers’ bowl game.

This has essentially been a lost season for Clement, who came into the the year as one of a handful of Heisman favorites.

The junior struggled in the season-opening loss to Alabama because of an injury that was later determined to be a sports hernia.  He missed the next seven games, came back for one game late last month (115 yards, three touchdowns in win over Rutgers), but then aggravated the injury and missed the Nov. 7 Maryland game as well.  He played in last weekend’s loss to Northwestern, but was held to just 24 yards on 10 carries.

For the season, Clement has rushed for 155 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries, one year after 949 yards and nine touchdowns as Heisman runner-up Melvin Gordon‘s primary backup.

WKU to host S. Miss/LaTech winner in C-USA title game

BOWLING GREEN, KY - NOVEMBER 27: Brandon Doughty #12 of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers looks to pass against the Marshall Thundering Herd in the second half of the game at L.T. Smith Stadium on November 27, 2015 in Bowling Green, Kentucky. The Hilltoppers defeated the Herd 49-28. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
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Not only is one-half of Conference USA’s championship game set, but so is the location.

East division members Western Kentucky and Marshall came into their game Friday afternoon at 7-0 and 6-1 in conference play, respectively, with the contest essentially serving as a play-in game to the league’s title game.  On the strength of Brandon Doughty‘s 370 yards passing and five touchdowns, the Hilltoppers played their way in and staked a claim to the division title with a dominating 49-28 win over the Herd.

The Hilltoppers became the first C-USA team to finish undefeated in league play since Houston in 2011. WKU is the seventh team to go unbeaten in league play in C-USA’s 20 football seasons.

WKU is in just its second season in Conference USA, and will be playing for its first conference title in Bowling Green as the win wrapped up home-field advantage for the Hilltoppers.

The opponent will be determined Saturday afternoon. West leaders Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech, both 6-1, will square off Saturday in Ruston, with the winner moving on to face WKU next Saturday. Tech lost to Marshall in its first-ever title game appearance last season, while USM is looking to get back to the game for the first time since 2011 and the third time overall.