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Predictions 101 — Week 9

The Swami AP

It was bound to happen. No, not Oklahoma finally losing in Norman. P101 having a losing week.

For the first time all season, we were sub .500 vs. “the number,” going 5-7 in Week 8. With all that heavy lumber littering last week’s board, we just couldn’t seem to end up on the right side.

Despite a historic Hail Mary and Dayne Crist’s inability to take a snap, we still posted a 8-4 straight-up mark.

After 96 games, we’re 59-33-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 73-23.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 27 thru Sat., Oct. 29)

1) No. 6 Clemson at Georgia Tech
Sat., Oct. 29 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

It’ll be interesting to see how the Tigers handle being up on the pedestal. It’s one thing for young players and coaches to climb, but an entirely different challenge to stay.

Clemson (8-0, 5-0 in ACC), which is now ranked fifth in the BCS standings, hasn’t opened a season with nine consecutive victories since its 1981 national championship team rolled all the way to 12-0. Pretty lofty stuff all the way around.

After a pair of disappointing losses at Virginia and Miami, Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) is happy to be back at home, hosting an opponent that offers the opportunity to have some of its swagger stolen.

The Yellow Jackets have won six of their last eight meetings with the Tigers, who didn’t look particularly sharp in their previous road game, needing to embark on a torrid comeback to beat Maryland, 56-45.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4 1/2

The pick: Georgia Tech 32-31

Final: Georgia Tech 31-17

2) No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 10 Kansas State
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

After last Saturday’s debacle in Norman, the Sooners are jumping at the opportunity to get out of town and escape to the seclusion of the Little Apple.

Oklahoma (6-1, 3-1 in Big 12) clearly showed in its shocking 41-38 loss to Texas Tech that it can be hurt through the air. Unfortunately for Kansas State (7-0, 4-0), Collin Klein isn’t the sort of quarterback who can take advantage. He rushed for four touchdowns in last week’s 59-21 victory over Kansas and is more of a dual-threat type.

Although its passing component ranks last in the Big 12 and 110th in the nation, the Wildcats’ ball-control offense has a shot to limit Sooner possessions, but can’t be expected to match scores. Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones has already passed for 2,589 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, and should eventually wear down the hosts.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 31-21

Final: Oklahoma 58-17

3) No. 9 Michigan State at No. 13 Nebraska
Sat., Oct. 29 — noon ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i.

Sparty won an incredible game last Saturday on a Hail Mary and controls its own destiny in the Legends Division and could possibly earn a rematch versus Wisconsin in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan State (6-1, 3-0 in Big Ten) is the country’s darling right now.

Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) wants some love too. The Cornhuskers also control their own Legends destiny and have Michigan State right where they want them … in Lincoln, following an emotional game and likely tired from a brutal stretch.

The Spartans, who have had to deal with Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin already this month, are not the same team on the road, where miracles are hard to come by. Don’t forget about the 31-13 decision they dropped to less-than-impressive Notre Dame.

William Gholston is returning to Michigan State after a suspension. This beast of a defensive end will get optioned by Nebraska as the Huskers go “old school” and stick to its strength at home, the run game.

The Nebraska running attack will open things up for the occasional shot down the field. Although Taylor Martinez is no Andrew Luck, the Spartans will be so focused on stopping the run that Husker wideouts will be wide open for a couple big plays.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 3 1/2

The pick: Nebraska 27-24

Final: Nebraska 24-3

4) Baylor at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2

The arrival of Robert Griffin III in Stillwater should garner lots of attention, but it’ll still be a challenge for the Cowboys to concentrate on the now.

Being slotted third in the BCS standings is more than enough to weigh on the mind of a team, but that gets even heavier when the top two teams have a date to lock horns next week. Furthermore, Oklahoma State (7-0, 4-0 in Big 12) has a humongous game of its own next week as it hosts Kansas State (currently undefeated at 7-0).

Baylor (4-2, 1-2) has dropped both of its road games this season, including its most recent outing, a 55-28 loss at Texas A&M in which the Bears surrendered 681 total yards. Yikes.

Both defenses allow more than 425 yards and 26.7 points per game. Combine that with the offensive weaponry on both squads and we will be looking at a total somewhere north of 80.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma St. by 15

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-34

Final: Oklahoma State 59-24

5) No. 4 Stanford at No. 20 USC
Sat., Oct. 29 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

What’s with the ‘World Wide Leader?’ We’ve got this matchup ranked in the middle of the road, but ‘College GameDay’ is caravanning out to the Coliseum. Besides Desmond really wanting to go purse shopping on Rodeo Drive, we don’t get it.

Stanford (7-0, 5-0 in Pac-12) plays the kind of football that USC (6-1, 3-1) was synonymous with for decades — physical on both sides of the line, balanced on offense, unrelenting on defense. The Cardinal are simply machine-like in their destruction of the opposition, winning their last 10 games by at least 26 points. Last week, they rushed for a school-record 446 yards in a 65-21 victory over Washington.

Don’t get fooled into thinking that playing at the Coliseum benefits the Trojans. Incredibly, Stanford has won four of its last six games on USC’s home turf. And remember that this year’s Trojans were gracious hosts to Minnesota (two-point win), Utah (17-14, before score magically changed) and Arizona (surrendered 41 points).

Opening point spread: Stanford by 9 1/2

The pick: Stanford 37-21

Final: Stanford 56-48, 3OT

6) No. 22 Georgia vs. Florida (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Ever since John Brantley injured his ankle against Alabama on Oct. 1, the Gators haven’t tasted victory. The senior quarterback should be back in the saddle on Saturday, giving Florida (4-3, 2-3 in SEC) a good shot at avoiding a four-game losing streak, which would be its longest since 1988.

Georgia (5-2, 4-1), however, is intent on winning its sixth game in a row and turning things around against the Gators, who have won the last three games in the series and 18 of the last 21.

The Bulldogs still have a lot to prove. Their four SEC wins have come against teams with a combined conference record of 1-15, which is truly horrific since the lone victory among that group came at the expense of a member (Vandy over Ole Miss).

Having a pair of key defenders — lineman Kwame Geathers and safety Shawn Williams — suspended for the first half doesn’t help.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 1

The pick: Florida 24-21

Final: Georgia 24-20

7) Navy at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Under normal circumstances — meaning no five-game losing streak for a team that’s been to eight consecutive bowl games — nothing this side of Army means more to the Midshipmen than butting heads with the Fighting Irish.

This season, with a bowl game in jeopardy and a loss to Air Force having already dented Commander-in-Chief Trophy hopes, Navy (2-5) has an ultra-intense focus on Notre Dame (4-3).

Conversely, the Irish are candidates to play this one scared. Having already lost three of its last four to the Middies, there’s lots of pressure on Notre Dame, which self-destructed last Saturday in a 31-17 loss to USC. Not only did the Irish give away the football three times in the second half, they also demonstrated a stunning inability to stop the run.

“I’m not going to tolerate it,” Brian Kelly said, after the loss to the Trojans. “It’s not going to be pretty this week in practice. If we gotta go back and tackle every day, we’ll tackle every day.”

Maybe that’ll help, but if USC can rush for 219 yards at Notre Dame, working with a previously maligned offensive line, what will the triple-option Midshipmen, who average 325 rushing yards per game and 5.7 per carry, do to the Irish?

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 20

The pick: Notre Dame 38-31

Final: Notre Dame 56-14

8) No. 12 Wisconsin at Ohio State
Sat., Oct. 29 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The damage has been done. Michigan State’s Hail Mary was answered. The Badgers just can’t let that play beat them for a second time. Carrying any sort of woe-is-me hangover into another road game would be a disaster for Wisconsin (6-1, 2-1 in Big Ten), which needs this one to stay on course to winning the Leaders Division.

Ohio State (4-3, 1-2) doesn’t have anything even remotely resembling the passing attack that Michigan State used last Saturday to beat the Badgers. Buckeye freshman quarterback Braxton Miller hasn’t completed more than five passes or thrown for more than 95 yards in any game since the opener. That’s a far cry from Spartan veteran Kirk Cousins, who went 22-of-31 for 290 yards and three touchdowns to get it done last week versus Wisconsin.

We trust that Bret Bielema will make sure the Badgers bounce back strong.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 7 1/2

The pick: Wisconsin 31-13

Final: Ohio State 33-29

9) No. 25 West Virginia at Rutgers
Sat., Oct. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Last year, the Mountaineers were two-touchdown favorites over Syracuse and dropped a 19-14 decision.

Last week, West Virginia (5-2, 1-1 in Big East) was a 14-point favorite over the Orange and it happened again … only worse. This time, the Mounties got pummeled, 49-23.

If you’re expecting Rutgers (5-2, 2-1) to feel the brunt of a let’s-bounce-back-and-get-this-right effort from West Virginia, please remember that the Mountaineers followed up last season’s loss to Syracuse by getting upset by Connecticut in overtime, 16-13.

After getting picked off twice and sacked four times versus the Orange, WVU QB Geno Smith will have his hands full with a Scarlet Knight pass rush that ranks first in the Big East with 24 sacks on the season.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 5 1/2

The pick: Rutgers 24-23

Final: West Virginia 41-31

10) No. 14 South Carolina at Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 29 — 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

The future is now for a pair of teams in the midst of opposite campaigns.

Tennessee (3-4, 0-4 in SEC) turns to true freshman quarterback Justin Worley, last year’s Gatorade National Player of the Year, who gets thrown into the fire in his first collegiate start as the top-ranked and well-rested South Carolina (6-1, 4-1) pass defense travels to Knoxville.

With all-everything tailback Marcus Lattimore lost for the season due to a knee injury, the Gamecocks’ hopes of remaining atop the SEC East standings rest with sophomore quarterback Connor Shaw, who is likely to struggle as he did two weeks ago against Mississippi State since his ground attack becomes much easier to contain with freshman Brandon Wilds carrying the load.

The Vols, who came up empty through the first four games of their SEC gauntlet, have beaten South Carolina in all but one of its last 15 trips to Neyland Stadium.

Opening point spread: South Carolina by 3 1/2

The pick: Tennessee 23-17

Final: South Caroliona 14-3


Rice at No. 18 Houston
Thurs., Oct. 27 — 8 p.m. ET, FSN

The Cougars have one more Thursday night game to consider watching (Nov. 10 at Tulane), but this “Bayou Bucket” matchup is sure to be something else with the nation’s No. 1 squad in terms of total offense hosting a team that ranks 115th in total defense. Let the fun begin!

Led by record-setting quarterback Case Keenum, who has accounted for 17,173 yards of total offense and 150 touchdowns in his collegiate career, Houston (7-0, 3-0) has scored a total of 224 points in its last four games.

Rice (2-5, 1-3), on the other hand, has scored more than 28 points just once this season and that was in a 56-31 loss at Baylor on Sept. 24.

The last time the Owls made the six-mile trek across town to Robertson Stadium, they got eviscerated, 73-14. The fact that Rice upset Houston last year, 34-31, doesn’t help the Owls’ chances.

The price might seem steep, but we feel it’s a bargain.

Opening point spread: Houston by 25 1/2

The pick: Houston 56-23

Final: Houston 73-34

Missouri at No. 16 Texas A&M
Sat., Oct. 29 — Noon ET, FX

This soon-to-be-SEC matchup isn’t quite Alabama-LSU, but it will be intriguing.

Missouri (3-4, 1-3 in Big 12) ran out of gas and into turnovers in last Saturday’s attempted upset of Oklahoma State. If the Tigers can be less generous, their balanced attack, which averages 238 yards on the ground (tops in the league) and 253 through the air, could give Texas A&M (5-2, 3-1) all sorts of problems.

The Aggies, who rank dead last in the nation in pass defense, also might have a distracted eye on next week’s trip to Norman.

We wouldn’t be surprised if overtime were required.

Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 15

The pick: Texas A&M 35-28

Final: Missouri 38-31, OT

Week 9 record: 7-5
Total: 80-28

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18 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 9”
  1. southernpatriots says: Oct 26, 2011 12:43 PM

    John: As we stated last week, we expected you to come down from the heavens to the level of us mortals, and so it was. It is such an humbling experience. We are still remaining high on our very limited predictions, especially of our alma mater LSU being 40 – 10 predictions for Florida, Tennessee and Auburn. With LSU having a bye week this week, we will taking in many SEC and other college football games.

    No one we know saw the Texas Tech over Oklahoma, especially not Stoops and team which foreshadowed the defeat by calling in their game the previous second half. Our congrats to Tubby and team.

    We pick these straight up: Clemson over Georgia Tech; NE over MI State; USC loses to Stanford; Navy over Notre Dame; WI easy over tOSU; WVU over Rutgers; SC loses to TN; Houston wipes out Baylor; A&M over MO.

  2. thefoodrapist says: Oct 26, 2011 12:43 PM

    “What’s with the “World Wide Leader?” We’ve got this matchup ranked in the middle of the road, but they’re caravanning out to the Coliseum. Besides Desmond really wanting to go purse shopping on Rodeo Drive, we don’t get it.”

    I’ll help you out. The “World Wide Leader” (ESPiN) is going to SoCal. because they are AFRAID to go to C-bus and get embarassing on national television, via Ohio State fans with some clever signage on Game Day. The Buckeyes fans are seeking revenge for the BIASED, UNBALANCED, HACKJOB being put on Ohio State by the media, mainly ESPiN since last winter. And rightly so. ESPiN lacks the balls. They’ll use the excuse that Wisconsin losing last week took off a little luster for this match-up, but believe you me – Game Day/ESPiN are scared to be emabarassed.

  3. blitz4848 says: Oct 26, 2011 12:51 PM

    @ southernpatriots

    Houston wipes out Baylor??????

    Houston plays RICE and BAYLOR plays OK ST

  4. southernpatriots says: Oct 26, 2011 1:07 PM

    blitz4848: Thank you for being so alert and kindly calling our attention to our mistake. JT has the NBC techs working on a edit button (at least he said it is on their “list” but it may be as low and Stanford’s Sagarin’s Strength of Schedule meaurement..ha.) Houston wipes out Rice. we did not predict OK State over Baylor but they should cruise.

    We hope to keep busy so we don’t think much about the LSU contest with Bama on Nov. 5th.

    Thank you again. Have a great day!

  5. fuzzebear says: Oct 26, 2011 1:12 PM

    I’ll help you out. The “World Wide Leader” (ESPiN) is going to SoCal. because they are AFRAID to go to C-bus and get embarassing on national television, via Ohio State fans with some clever signage on Game Day. The Buckeyes fans are seeking revenge for the BIASED, UNBALANCED, HACKJOB being put on Ohio State by the media, mainly ESPiN since last winter. And rightly so. ESPiN lacks the balls. They’ll use the excuse that Wisconsin losing last week took off a little luster for this match-up, but believe you me – Game Day/ESPiN are scared to be emabarassed.

    If Gameday doesn’t like a sign they make you take it down (which is a shame). They aren’t going to Ohio St becasue that game isn’t going to be competitive becasue Ohio State’s offense is putrid. They are going to get blown out by a PISSED off Nebraska team that is far superior.

  6. rowbear says: Oct 26, 2011 1:27 PM


    Um, Ohio State already played Nebraska and the game was anything but a blowout.

  7. sportsinhd says: Oct 26, 2011 1:37 PM

    Why is College Game Day headed to Southern California? Because their options are pretty limited this week. USC vs. Stanford features two Top 25 teams (USC is number 20 in the AP); the only other games between ranked teams are K-State versus Oklahoma (and Game Day has seen the Sooners twice so far this season), and MSU versus Nebraska (Game Day was in East Lansing last week and saw the Huskers when they were in Wisconsin). They kind of have to get Stanford on there at some point, they are ranked number four in the nation.

    No offense, but why would they visit Ohio State, Georgia Tech, or Oklahoma State when those games don’t feature Top 25 match ups? Kansas State is kind of getting step-son treatment, but if they keep winning that will take care of its self. Besides, I want to see Will Ferrell on Game Day.

  8. filmex2000 says: Oct 26, 2011 2:10 PM

    Oh yeah, that was some HACKJOB done on the Buckeyes. Just yesterday we heard the audiotapes of the Vest lying to the NCAA, of admitting he was “scared” he might lose players if he actually acted like the upstanding gentleman he pretended to be.

    The USC football program was decimated because one player, Reggie “Greedy” Bush, agreed to sign with an agent, had benefits fronted for his parents, then reneged on the deal.

    The NCAA agreed the university knew nothing about the deal, Pete Carroll knew nothing about the deal, that this was due to the impatient greediness of one player.

    And the sanctions that were dealt have set back the USC football program for a decade. If the NCAA doesn’t clobber the Buckeyes for its multitude of violators, and ban habitual rule-breaker Tressell from football for five years, there will definitely be something rotten in Denmark…errr, Columbus.

    You know Buckeye fans can no longer smell the stench when Pryor thinks he can roll up to an event in a rental car, on a suspended license, without a care.

  9. florida727 says: Oct 26, 2011 4:41 PM

    I’m still waiting for “dixienormous”, aka “dickheadnormous” to come on here and trash the SEC and Big 12 schools.

    Oh wait… he can’t. Not after his Washington Huskies were HUMILIATED by Stanford. In case you’re reading this “dick…” that 65-21 embarrassment included a 446 yards rushing effort by the Cardinal who had been averaging less than 187 rushing yards per game prior to your visit. The good news is that Stanford ‘only’ scored 20 points MORE than they were averaging coming into the game. Forget about the 10.1 yards per carry average (44 carries, the aforementioned 446 yards) or the 5 TD’s on the ground; those are hardly worth mentioning.

    I guess all this is to essentially say YOUR TEAM SUCKS. Think about that next time you want to trash a school from a real football conference like the Big 12 or SEC. Hope you come back on and post though… as soon as your team becomes relevant again. Should be in a decade or four. Have a nice day.

  10. pricecube says: Oct 26, 2011 4:47 PM

    Surprised with how many of these I disagree with… I’ve got:

    Clemson over Georgia Tech
    Georgia over Florida
    West Virginia over Rutgers
    South Carolina over Tennessee

    The rest I agree on.

  11. southernpatriots says: Oct 26, 2011 5:25 PM

    pricecube: some good choices! at least we think so. We are a toss up on the Florida/Georgia rivalry game. That one can go any direction.

    Florida727: You know you are rubbing it in…of course you do…but dixie sowed it and so reaps it. Oh well. Did you hear of how much advancement that the LSU football has made under Miles? We celebrate his success as he made the presentation today to his players…

    Coach Miles has been privately pursuing all his football players to attend class and to graduate. This has been a priority to him as soon as he arrived in Baton Rouge. Coach Miles was overheard saying to his players today when the latest NCAA report came out, that he is prouder of this accomplishment by his team than any rankings of #1 because this will benefit them all their lives. The latest NCAA Graduation Success Rate data released on Tuesday confirms his efforts are resulting in success.

    “BATON ROUGE – LSU posted the second highest graduation rate in the Southeastern Conference in the sport of football according to the NCAA’s Graduation Success Rate data that was released on Tuesday.

    LSU football’s Graduation Success Rate (GSR) of 77 trails only Vanderbilt’s mark of 86. The only other SEC football program with a GSR above 70 is Florida at 76….”

    The graduation rates of football players in the SEC has Vanderbilt first with 86 and LSU coming in second at 77. That is a big improvement and we congratulate Coach Miles and his staff for emphasizing an education to his players and working hard with them to see they get one.

  12. florida727 says: Oct 26, 2011 7:52 PM

    Hey “southern…”, hope you’re well. Did I mention the part about Stanford having SIX HUNDRED FIFTEEN (615) yards of total offense?


    So LSU’s GSR was 77 and Florida’s was 76? I knew that missed extra point would come back to haunt us. Darn it…

  13. southernpatriots says: Oct 26, 2011 8:09 PM


    We were down so low for so long that being up there in #2 is so great if it is by .0000001 of a point. Now, hopefully we can remain at this level or improve upon it. I thought it was one of our family who all flubbed one test or another, one GRE or another, one dissertation or another, etc. to keep us from overcoming Vanderbilt?!!!

    The sad thing is that there is Vanderbilt in the 80s. Then LSU and Florida in the mid/high 70s. And no other school even in the 70s. We hope A&M will help us all as a conference, but what does that say about 9 other schools? We definitely have something to celebrate, but also something for 9 other schools to be workin on as hard as Vanderbilt, LSU, and Florida. Another remarkable thing is that LSU and Florida have 4 BCS National Championships, 2 each, AND graduate in the mid/high 70s. Now that is something to brag about….Miles was really happy about the NCAA report today and we completely understand why.

  14. southernpatriots says: Oct 26, 2011 8:17 PM


    Thanks for asking. I am under powerful antibiotics to eliminate the infections and powerful narcotic pain relievers to make me somewhat functional until the operations can be done, which can only happen when the infections are gone. I seem to fit in at this time of the year, sort of like a zombie. ha.

  15. mdoche says: Oct 26, 2011 9:08 PM

    Who’s with me on the Gamecocks getting upset again? Worked for us earlier this year against Auburn.

  16. pricecube says: Oct 26, 2011 10:06 PM


    I agree the “cocktail party” is a tough one to call. The SEC East champion is probably not going to have very good odds going into the SEC CG.


    As a life long Vol fan it pains me to say that I don’t see that happening unless Worley turns out to be the second coming of Peyton Manning. In fact I am worried that the old ball coach would love nothing more than to hang as many points as possible on the Vols. The way Tennessee has reliably collapsed in the second half of every SEC game I think this one could get ugly. Hope you are right though….

  17. msuguy says: Oct 28, 2011 1:38 PM

    The Nebraska-Michigan State game may be a close contest on Saturday now that both Jared Crick and Thad Randle are out of the lineup at DT for Nebraska. It should be a good game that could go either way – the #7 MSU defense versus the #7 Nebraska run offense, with Nebraska playing at home and in danger of falling 2 games behind in conference play. The posted prediction from the P101 Satellite Office in Hawaii in this article gives the nod to Nebraska by three (within the point spread), but I would remind readers that the “Nostradamus of Hawaii” picked Wisconsin over Michigan State last week 45-17 and we know how accurate that was.

  18. mchughjj says: Oct 28, 2011 4:24 PM

    I’m normally not too bullish on the late-season, big-game prospects of my alma mater (Clemson), but I have to wonder if the prognosticator actually saw GA Tech play the last two weeks. In better times, the Jackets offensive gameplan has been described as high school football, but when the execution is on par with high school football as well, there isn’t much the opponent needs to do right to come out on top.

    I realize that this game often doesn’t go to form and can be unexpectedly close, but based on recent results, these two teams are miles apart. This would be a staggering upset. I’m really more concerned about the diminished value of a Clemson win (will it be enough to overtake an idle Boise with Tech having tumbled off the charts) than whether they can win.

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