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Predictions 101 — Week 12

The Swami AP

After that fast start, we’ve been “bowl eligible” for a while now, but our fans are getting restless due to recent mediocrity.

We went 5-6-1 vs. “the number” in Week 11 and that clearly isn’t up to the standards we set around here. A 10-2 straight-up mark ain’t too shabby, but we’re looking for a strong finishing kick.

After 132 games, we’re 74-53-3 (two games weren’t on the board) and 101-31 straight.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Nov. 17 thru Sat., Nov. 19)

1) No. 18 USC at No. 4 Oregon
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

All the pressure is on the Ducks. Every trend points to them and so do most of the matchups. A two-touchdown favorite, Oregon is supposed to win comfortably. Saddled with probation, the Trojans have far less to gain or lose.

When a game shapes up like this, normally we start to envision the unexpected. However, Oregon (9-1, 7-0 in Pac-12) could be the least uptight team in the nation. The Ducks simply march along at their own ultra-rapid pace and seem to get the job done with relative ease, particularly against USC (8-2, 5-2) in recent years.

Oregon has totaled 100 points in its last two games against the Trojans, coasting to a pair of victories. Duck running back LaMichael James enjoys playing against USC more than any other team. The junior has rushed for 422 yards and four scores in those two previous outings versus Tailback U.

For the past couple games, USC has started freshmen at all three linebacker spots. Their speed will serve them well, but those youngsters will have their hands full pre-snap, getting aligned properly against the Ducks’ hurry-up, and post-snap, dealing with lightening fast weaponry, which now includes De’Anthony Thomas, an L.A. product and one-time Trojan commit.

USC has been unsuccessful in its last five visits to the state of Oregon (losses to the Ducks in 2007 and 2009, and to Oregon State in 2006, 2008 and 2010) and has won only twice in its last seven trips to Eugene. If this game were in Los Angeles, we’d go with the upset.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 14 1/2

The pick: Oregon 42-31

Final: USC 38-35

2) No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 25 Baylor
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

If the Sooners can get beat at home by Texas Tech, they can lose to anybody. The Bears are certainly a far more qualified opponent than the Red Raiders, who came into their game at Oklahoma riding a two-game losing streak and since leaving Norman have lost three in a row by a stunning combined score of 159-33.

Baylor (6-3, 3-3 in Big 12) has won its last two games and leads the conference in scoring (40 points per game) and total offense (568 yards per game).

Superstar quarterback Robert Griffin III will get some business done, especially at home where the Bears are 5-0 this season. However, Baylor is allowing an average of 38 points per game (108th in the nation) and won’t be able to slow down a rested Oklahoma offense that will be without the services of all-everything wideout Ryan Broyles, who tore his left ACL in the Sooners’ last game, a 41-25 victory over Texas A&M on Nov. 5.

Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1) has been rejuvenated by Stanford and Boise State getting knocked from the ranks of the undefeated last Saturday, but the Sooners need to avoid the temptation of thinking about Bedlam too much.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 45-38

Final: Baylor 45-38

3) No. 17 Nebraska at No. 20 Michigan
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, ESPN

The Cornhuskers did an admirable job blocking out all the distractions at Penn State last Saturday, coming away with a 17-14 victory that kept them in the running for the Big Ten’s Legends Division.

Michigan (8-2, 4-2 in the Big Ten) also won its game last week, taking care of Illinois, 31-14, but Wolverine quarterback Denard Robinson picked up a slight injury to his right wrist. Michigan might not opt to go to the air too often against Nebraska, which allows a generous 161 yards rushing per game (eighth in the conference), but when Robinson does fling the football, a gimpy wrist won’t help him break his unfortunate streak of five consecutive games with an interception (total of 13 on the season).

This will be the second time this season that the Cornhuskers play on the road in consecutive weeks. In the first instance, Nebraska got whipped at Wisconsin, 48-17.

Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, who rushed for 192 yards on 27 carries last week versus the Fighting Illini, will be the home team’s hero.

Opening point spread: Michigan by 2 1/2

The pick: Michigan 28-23

Final: Michigan 45-17

4) No. 1 LSU at Mississippi
Sat., Nov. 19 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The only thing the Rebels have going for them is history.

Last year, LSU needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Mississippi, 43-36, which was a huge upgrade for the Tigers, who inexplicably lost their previous two games to the Rebels.

Ole Miss (2-8, 0-6 in SEC), which got humiliated last week in a 27-7 loss at home to Louisiana Tech, doesn’t have a shot to pull off anything remotely similar against Louisiana State (10-0, 6-0).

Not only have the Rebels lost their last 13 conference games, their lame duck coach was forced to suspend quarterback Randall Mackey and running back Jeff Scott for this game due to a violation of team rules.

The Rebel offense was punchless with Mackey and Scott, ranking 113th in total offense and 109th in scoring offense. It’ll be sad to see what Ole Miss is able to generate without them against LSU’s rock solid defense.

The Tigers went through the motions in the first half of last week’s 42-9 victory over Western Kentucky, so they owe Les Miles (and P101) and full 60-minute effort against the Rebels as they tune up for next Friday’s showdown versus Arkansas.

Opening point spread: LSU by 28 1/2

The pick: LSU 42-6

Final: LSU 52-3

5) No. 21 Penn State at Ohio State
Sat., Nov. 19 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Tom Bradley vs. Luke Fickell. It doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as Joe Paterno vs. Jim Tressel, but if you dig deep enough through the muck, it’s still Penn State vs. Ohio State and both teams have a lot to play for on the football field.

Penn State (8-2, 5-1 in Big Ten) can clinch at least a share of the Leaders Division title with a victory over Ohio State (6-4, 3-3).

Both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing losses that saw them fall three points short. The Nittany Lions got beat, 17-14, by Nebraska at home, while the Buckeyes fell, 26-23, in overtime at Purdue.

Unlike the oddsmakers, we see this as a toss up and we’ll adopt the opinion that Penn State will find refuge and focus by being together as a team on the road.

Opening point spread: Ohio State by 7

The pick: Penn State 21-17

Final: Penn State 20-14

6) North Carolina at No. 9 Virginia Tech
Thurs., Nov. 17 — 8 p.m. ET, ESP

The Hokies are close to wrapping up the Coastal Division crown. All Virginia Tech (9-1, 5-1 in ACC) needs is a victory over fading North Carolina (6-4, 2-4) and Virginia to stumble at Florida State two days later.

This spotlight game matches two of the ACC’s top running backs against two of the league’s best run defenses. VT’s David Wilson leads the country with 1,360 rushing yards, while UNC’s Giovani Bernard is the nation’s top freshman ground gainer with 1,012 yards so far this season.

Wilson (career-high 175 yards rushing) and quarterback Logan Thomas (accounted for five touchdowns) came up big in the Hokies’ 37-26 victory last week at Georgia Tech. That stands in stark contrast to the Tar Heels who got blanked 13-0 at N.C. State on Nov. 5 and had to stew over that during last week’s bye.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 10 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 31-14

Final: Virginia Tech 24-21

7) Kentucky at No. 13 Georgia
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, SEC Network

Remember when the Bulldogs opened the season with losses to Boise State and South Carolina, and Mark Richt was half-way out of Athens?

A reversal of fortune has Georgia (8-2, 6-1 in SEC) poised to clinch the Eastern Division title with a victory over Kentucky (4-6, 1-5).

Last season, Bulldog tailback Washaun Ealey rushed for 157 yards and five touchdowns in a 44-31 victory over the host Wildcats.

He won’t reach the end zone as often, but freshman Isaiah Crowell will pick up where Ealey left off against a Kentucky defense that allowed 38 points and 203 rushing yards last week in a miserable loss at Vanderbilt. That was a far cry from the 45-7 beating Georgia put on defending league and national champ Auburn last Saturday.

There’s also a huge gap between the quarterbacks with Aaron Murray lightyears ahead of UK freshman Maxwell Smith.

The Wildcats have not scored more than eight points in any road game this season, so the Bulldogs should have enough points to win by the time the first quarter ends.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 27 1/2

The pick: Georgia 41-6

Final: Georgia 19-10

8) No. 2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Fri., Nov. 18 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Powered by quarterback Brandon Weeden, wideout Justin Blackmon, running back Joseph Randle and a veteran offensive line, the Cowboy offense is incredibly efficient. Giving them extra possessions is simply deadly. But that’s exactly what’s been happening this season and why Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0 in Big 12) is undefeated and in position to play for the BCS title. The Cowboy defense leads the nation in takeaways (34) and turnover margin (+1.8).

Oklahoma State deserves a ton of credit for shutting out the Texas Tech offense in last Saturday’s 66-6 rout. That performance was the exact opposite of allowing 45 points to Kansas State at home the week before.

Iowa State (5-4, 2-4), which ranks last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and turnover margin, doesn’t match up at all against what the Cowboys have to offer.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 25

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-19

Final: Iowa State 37-31, 2OT

9) California at No. 8 Stanford
Sat., Nov. 19 — 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. 

With the Golden Bears coming to Palo Alto, the Cardinal have to quickly lick their wounds and move on.

The habit Stanford (9-1, 7-1 in Pac-12) had of winning their games by three touchdowns or more makes its return this week.

The Cardinal will buckle down and slow Isi Sofele and the rest of the Bear running attack, forcing them to take to the air.

Quarterback play for California (6-4, 3-4) has been spotty and although its wideouts are outstanding, you have to be able to get the ball to them. That won’t happen against an angry Stanford defense that feels it needs to redeem itself.

Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck will still be without some of his weapons, but he’ll rise above last week’s adversity and lead Stanford to a big victory over its arch rival.

Opening point spread: Stanford by 20

The pick: Stanford 52-24

Final: Stanford 31-28

10) Harvard at Yale
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, Versus

“The Game” is apparently bigger than “the scholarship.” At least it is to Yale quarterback Patrick Witt, who has chosen to play against Harvard on Saturday instead of attend a Rhodes Scholarship interview.

Witt, who was a finalist for the prestigious scholarship to Oxford, has withdrawn his application. Instead he hopes to lead the Bulldogs to their first victory over the Crimson in the last five years.

Harvard (8-1, 6-0 in Ivy), which was won nine of the last 10 meetings in this classic series, leads the Ivy League in both total offense and scoring. The Crimson haven’t scored less than 35 points in their last six games. Yale (5-4, 4-2), on the other hand, hasn’t scored that many in a single game since September.

Opening point spread: N/A

The pick: Harvard 38-24

Final: Harvard 45-7

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Mississippi State at No. 6 Arkansas
Sat., Nov. 19 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Despite taking a beating last week when they undervalued the Razorbacks, which resulted in enough action to move the line three points in an eventual 49-7 steamrolling of Tennessee, oddsmakers have once again made Arkansas (9-1, 5-1 in SEC) less than a two-touchdown favorite as the Hogs look to close out their home schedule a perfect 8-0 for the first time in over a decade.

Having allowed just 16 points per game over the their last eight contests, Mississippi State (5-5, 1-5) could offer some resistance against the SEC’s top-ranked offensive unit that has scored at least 38 points in each of its home games, but the Bulldog’s anemic offense isn’t likely to keep up regardless.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 12

The pick: Arkansas 34-13

Final: Arkansas 44-17

No. 10 Boise State at San Diego State
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET

The last time the Broncos lost a game — these errant three-pointers seem to be their bugaboo — they took out their frustrations on Utah State, registering a 50-14 victory in their final game as a member of the WAC.

That’s not good news for San Diego State (6-3, 3-2 in MWC), which has the unenviable task of being next up for Boise State (8-1, 3-1).

Having to visit Qualcomm Stadium might further enrage the Broncos, who are now being talked about as a Poinsettia Bowl participant after having their national championship and BCS dreams dashed by TCU last Saturday.

The capable Aztec pass defense will make Kellen Moore put in an honest night’s work to wrap up his 47th collegiate victory.

Opening point spread: Boise State by 16

The pick: Boise State 35-17

Final: Boise State 52-35

Week 12 record: 9-3
Total: 110-34

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6 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 12”
  1. southernpatriots says: Nov 16, 2011 3:09 PM

    John:

    We did poorly as well last week. We commiserate with you.

    We think LSU owes Miles and P101 a 60 minute peformance this week. We think it was the emotional hard fought smash mouth overtime win 9-6 againt Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium the previous week took an emotional toll on LSU and they came out flat the first half v. WKY, but somewhat in the second quarter then throughout the second half they did take care of business both offensively and defensively.

    LSU has to focus on Ole Miss. If they really focus, they should take care of the Rebels. Hopefully, this will not be a suprise.

    Baylor v. Oklahoma interests us because of having friends who are OU alums and fans. We do not like Baylor but they have an extraordinary QB. That can always be trouble. OU 48 – Baylor 42.

    Regular season contests this year have been quite interesting and sometimes unpredictable, as our host knows. Only a few undefeated teams remain. They should remain undefeated still after this weekend, but the season is still not over and some (like the SEC and others) have a conference playoff.

  2. txnative61 says: Nov 17, 2011 4:17 AM

    I’m disappointed to read Patrick Witt, QB of Yale, display such a lack of real world perspective. A Rhodes scholarship to Oxford is the academic equivalent of playing for the national championship, and should he win, put him immediately among the world’s elite scholars, or Hall of Fame, if you will. Extremely myopic to prioritize one lower level college football game above that, and likely in a losing cause to boot (no pun). Perhaps he felt he wouldn’t win the Rhodes either, but it would be better to at least attempt to reschedule, and for the Rhodes committee to do so.

  3. rogerwolverine says: Nov 17, 2011 11:23 AM

    You goofed up on the OSU-PSU game. They are not in separate divisions as you claim. OSU is not in the Legends. They are both in the Leaders, and OSU has no chance. You’re the experts. Please do basic research that most of us with other jobs can still find.

  4. dkhhuey says: Nov 17, 2011 4:40 PM

    How in the world is OSU favored in this game after last week’s pathetic performance? My god, PSU at least had a massive reason to lose focus and not win last week – we just sucked! There is no doubt that game caused Luke to NOT get another year so we are literally a walking zombie team with Jim Bollman, our horrid offensive coordinator leading the way. There is absolutely NO chance we win this game even with PSU’s distractions and lack of offense.

  5. southernpatriots says: Nov 17, 2011 8:42 PM

    dkhhuey: You are an educated and good fan. Few remain today. Most excuse the pitiful performance of their team or blaim something else. You are not being easy on the Buckeyes and being understanding of the Nittany Lions….that is great to see. The distractions may not yet be over for PSU. OSU has a great chance.

    Any further sightings of the AD or president of OSU at Meyer’s home? Meyer is going to keep answering the media, “I am not interested in coaching at this time” or something similar until he is announced as a head coach for _________. Is it going to be OSU?

    Urban Meyer would really solve some obvious problems with recruiting and getting OSU to the next level. Usually, the SEC keeps its successful coaches, God knows we pay them enough! but each school can afford it, that’s for sure.

    We hope we have to pay Les Miles every bonus, every incentive, every performance bonus which is in his contract this year…that would mean he will lead LSU to an undefeated season, win the SEC, and win the BCS NC. So we hope he gets paid it all which might bring his salary and benefits this year up to about $6 mil. Miles would be in the rarified air of Mack Brown of Texas. He would way more than earn it with just souveniers, banners, shirts, sweatshirts, etc. alone.

  6. sssjim7 says: Nov 19, 2011 12:09 AM

    Hrm… not a good start… 0-1 so far (OSU just lost)…

    I think Ohio State will beat Penn State… they seem way overrated to me…

    I also think Nebraska will beat Michigan…

    All guesses, of course… let the games begin!

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