The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 12

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After that fast start, we’ve been “bowl eligible” for a while now, but our fans are getting restless due to recent mediocrity.

We went 5-6-1 vs. “the number” in Week 11 and that clearly isn’t up to the standards we set around here. A 10-2 straight-up mark ain’t too shabby, but we’re looking for a strong finishing kick.

After 132 games, we’re 74-53-3 (two games weren’t on the board) and 101-31 straight.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Nov. 17 thru Sat., Nov. 19)

1) No. 18 USC at No. 4 Oregon
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

All the pressure is on the Ducks. Every trend points to them and so do most of the matchups. A two-touchdown favorite, Oregon is supposed to win comfortably. Saddled with probation, the Trojans have far less to gain or lose.

When a game shapes up like this, normally we start to envision the unexpected. However, Oregon (9-1, 7-0 in Pac-12) could be the least uptight team in the nation. The Ducks simply march along at their own ultra-rapid pace and seem to get the job done with relative ease, particularly against USC (8-2, 5-2) in recent years.

Oregon has totaled 100 points in its last two games against the Trojans, coasting to a pair of victories. Duck running back LaMichael James enjoys playing against USC more than any other team. The junior has rushed for 422 yards and four scores in those two previous outings versus Tailback U.

For the past couple games, USC has started freshmen at all three linebacker spots. Their speed will serve them well, but those youngsters will have their hands full pre-snap, getting aligned properly against the Ducks’ hurry-up, and post-snap, dealing with lightening fast weaponry, which now includes De’Anthony Thomas, an L.A. product and one-time Trojan commit.

USC has been unsuccessful in its last five visits to the state of Oregon (losses to the Ducks in 2007 and 2009, and to Oregon State in 2006, 2008 and 2010) and has won only twice in its last seven trips to Eugene. If this game were in Los Angeles, we’d go with the upset.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 14 1/2

The pick: Oregon 42-31

Final: USC 38-35

2) No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 25 Baylor
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

If the Sooners can get beat at home by Texas Tech, they can lose to anybody. The Bears are certainly a far more qualified opponent than the Red Raiders, who came into their game at Oklahoma riding a two-game losing streak and since leaving Norman have lost three in a row by a stunning combined score of 159-33.

Baylor (6-3, 3-3 in Big 12) has won its last two games and leads the conference in scoring (40 points per game) and total offense (568 yards per game).

Superstar quarterback Robert Griffin III will get some business done, especially at home where the Bears are 5-0 this season. However, Baylor is allowing an average of 38 points per game (108th in the nation) and won’t be able to slow down a rested Oklahoma offense that will be without the services of all-everything wideout Ryan Broyles, who tore his left ACL in the Sooners’ last game, a 41-25 victory over Texas A&M on Nov. 5.

Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1) has been rejuvenated by Stanford and Boise State getting knocked from the ranks of the undefeated last Saturday, but the Sooners need to avoid the temptation of thinking about Bedlam too much.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 45-38

Final: Baylor 45-38

3) No. 17 Nebraska at No. 20 Michigan
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, ESPN

The Cornhuskers did an admirable job blocking out all the distractions at Penn State last Saturday, coming away with a 17-14 victory that kept them in the running for the Big Ten’s Legends Division.

Michigan (8-2, 4-2 in the Big Ten) also won its game last week, taking care of Illinois, 31-14, but Wolverine quarterback Denard Robinson picked up a slight injury to his right wrist. Michigan might not opt to go to the air too often against Nebraska, which allows a generous 161 yards rushing per game (eighth in the conference), but when Robinson does fling the football, a gimpy wrist won’t help him break his unfortunate streak of five consecutive games with an interception (total of 13 on the season).

This will be the second time this season that the Cornhuskers play on the road in consecutive weeks. In the first instance, Nebraska got whipped at Wisconsin, 48-17.

Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, who rushed for 192 yards on 27 carries last week versus the Fighting Illini, will be the home team’s hero.

Opening point spread: Michigan by 2 1/2

The pick: Michigan 28-23

Final: Michigan 45-17

4) No. 1 LSU at Mississippi
Sat., Nov. 19 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The only thing the Rebels have going for them is history.

Last year, LSU needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Mississippi, 43-36, which was a huge upgrade for the Tigers, who inexplicably lost their previous two games to the Rebels.

Ole Miss (2-8, 0-6 in SEC), which got humiliated last week in a 27-7 loss at home to Louisiana Tech, doesn’t have a shot to pull off anything remotely similar against Louisiana State (10-0, 6-0).

Not only have the Rebels lost their last 13 conference games, their lame duck coach was forced to suspend quarterback Randall Mackey and running back Jeff Scott for this game due to a violation of team rules.

The Rebel offense was punchless with Mackey and Scott, ranking 113th in total offense and 109th in scoring offense. It’ll be sad to see what Ole Miss is able to generate without them against LSU’s rock solid defense.

The Tigers went through the motions in the first half of last week’s 42-9 victory over Western Kentucky, so they owe Les Miles (and P101) and full 60-minute effort against the Rebels as they tune up for next Friday’s showdown versus Arkansas.

Opening point spread: LSU by 28 1/2

The pick: LSU 42-6

Final: LSU 52-3

5) No. 21 Penn State at Ohio State
Sat., Nov. 19 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Tom Bradley vs. Luke Fickell. It doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as Joe Paterno vs. Jim Tressel, but if you dig deep enough through the muck, it’s still Penn State vs. Ohio State and both teams have a lot to play for on the football field.

Penn State (8-2, 5-1 in Big Ten) can clinch at least a share of the Leaders Division title with a victory over Ohio State (6-4, 3-3).

Both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing losses that saw them fall three points short. The Nittany Lions got beat, 17-14, by Nebraska at home, while the Buckeyes fell, 26-23, in overtime at Purdue.

Unlike the oddsmakers, we see this as a toss up and we’ll adopt the opinion that Penn State will find refuge and focus by being together as a team on the road.

Opening point spread: Ohio State by 7

The pick: Penn State 21-17

Final: Penn State 20-14

6) North Carolina at No. 9 Virginia Tech
Thurs., Nov. 17 — 8 p.m. ET, ESP

The Hokies are close to wrapping up the Coastal Division crown. All Virginia Tech (9-1, 5-1 in ACC) needs is a victory over fading North Carolina (6-4, 2-4) and Virginia to stumble at Florida State two days later.

This spotlight game matches two of the ACC’s top running backs against two of the league’s best run defenses. VT’s David Wilson leads the country with 1,360 rushing yards, while UNC’s Giovani Bernard is the nation’s top freshman ground gainer with 1,012 yards so far this season.

Wilson (career-high 175 yards rushing) and quarterback Logan Thomas (accounted for five touchdowns) came up big in the Hokies’ 37-26 victory last week at Georgia Tech. That stands in stark contrast to the Tar Heels who got blanked 13-0 at N.C. State on Nov. 5 and had to stew over that during last week’s bye.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 10 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 31-14

Final: Virginia Tech 24-21

7) Kentucky at No. 13 Georgia
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, SEC Network

Remember when the Bulldogs opened the season with losses to Boise State and South Carolina, and Mark Richt was half-way out of Athens?

A reversal of fortune has Georgia (8-2, 6-1 in SEC) poised to clinch the Eastern Division title with a victory over Kentucky (4-6, 1-5).

Last season, Bulldog tailback Washaun Ealey rushed for 157 yards and five touchdowns in a 44-31 victory over the host Wildcats.

He won’t reach the end zone as often, but freshman Isaiah Crowell will pick up where Ealey left off against a Kentucky defense that allowed 38 points and 203 rushing yards last week in a miserable loss at Vanderbilt. That was a far cry from the 45-7 beating Georgia put on defending league and national champ Auburn last Saturday.

There’s also a huge gap between the quarterbacks with Aaron Murray lightyears ahead of UK freshman Maxwell Smith.

The Wildcats have not scored more than eight points in any road game this season, so the Bulldogs should have enough points to win by the time the first quarter ends.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 27 1/2

The pick: Georgia 41-6

Final: Georgia 19-10

8) No. 2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Fri., Nov. 18 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Powered by quarterback Brandon Weeden, wideout Justin Blackmon, running back Joseph Randle and a veteran offensive line, the Cowboy offense is incredibly efficient. Giving them extra possessions is simply deadly. But that’s exactly what’s been happening this season and why Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0 in Big 12) is undefeated and in position to play for the BCS title. The Cowboy defense leads the nation in takeaways (34) and turnover margin (+1.8).

Oklahoma State deserves a ton of credit for shutting out the Texas Tech offense in last Saturday’s 66-6 rout. That performance was the exact opposite of allowing 45 points to Kansas State at home the week before.

Iowa State (5-4, 2-4), which ranks last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and turnover margin, doesn’t match up at all against what the Cowboys have to offer.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 25

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-19

Final: Iowa State 37-31, 2OT

9) California at No. 8 Stanford
Sat., Nov. 19 — 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. 

With the Golden Bears coming to Palo Alto, the Cardinal have to quickly lick their wounds and move on.

The habit Stanford (9-1, 7-1 in Pac-12) had of winning their games by three touchdowns or more makes its return this week.

The Cardinal will buckle down and slow Isi Sofele and the rest of the Bear running attack, forcing them to take to the air.

Quarterback play for California (6-4, 3-4) has been spotty and although its wideouts are outstanding, you have to be able to get the ball to them. That won’t happen against an angry Stanford defense that feels it needs to redeem itself.

Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck will still be without some of his weapons, but he’ll rise above last week’s adversity and lead Stanford to a big victory over its arch rival.

Opening point spread: Stanford by 20

The pick: Stanford 52-24

Final: Stanford 31-28

10) Harvard at Yale
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, Versus

“The Game” is apparently bigger than “the scholarship.” At least it is to Yale quarterback Patrick Witt, who has chosen to play against Harvard on Saturday instead of attend a Rhodes Scholarship interview.

Witt, who was a finalist for the prestigious scholarship to Oxford, has withdrawn his application. Instead he hopes to lead the Bulldogs to their first victory over the Crimson in the last five years.

Harvard (8-1, 6-0 in Ivy), which was won nine of the last 10 meetings in this classic series, leads the Ivy League in both total offense and scoring. The Crimson haven’t scored less than 35 points in their last six games. Yale (5-4, 4-2), on the other hand, hasn’t scored that many in a single game since September.

Opening point spread: N/A

The pick: Harvard 38-24

Final: Harvard 45-7

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Mississippi State at No. 6 Arkansas
Sat., Nov. 19 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Despite taking a beating last week when they undervalued the Razorbacks, which resulted in enough action to move the line three points in an eventual 49-7 steamrolling of Tennessee, oddsmakers have once again made Arkansas (9-1, 5-1 in SEC) less than a two-touchdown favorite as the Hogs look to close out their home schedule a perfect 8-0 for the first time in over a decade.

Having allowed just 16 points per game over the their last eight contests, Mississippi State (5-5, 1-5) could offer some resistance against the SEC’s top-ranked offensive unit that has scored at least 38 points in each of its home games, but the Bulldog’s anemic offense isn’t likely to keep up regardless.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 12

The pick: Arkansas 34-13

Final: Arkansas 44-17

No. 10 Boise State at San Diego State
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET

The last time the Broncos lost a game — these errant three-pointers seem to be their bugaboo — they took out their frustrations on Utah State, registering a 50-14 victory in their final game as a member of the WAC.

That’s not good news for San Diego State (6-3, 3-2 in MWC), which has the unenviable task of being next up for Boise State (8-1, 3-1).

Having to visit Qualcomm Stadium might further enrage the Broncos, who are now being talked about as a Poinsettia Bowl participant after having their national championship and BCS dreams dashed by TCU last Saturday.

The capable Aztec pass defense will make Kellen Moore put in an honest night’s work to wrap up his 47th collegiate victory.

Opening point spread: Boise State by 16

The pick: Boise State 35-17

Final: Boise State 52-35

Week 12 record: 9-3
Total: 110-34

Tennessee to wear helmet decals in remembrance of Pat Summitt

KNOXVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 7:  A Tennessee Volunteer holds up his helmet in the team huddle before the NCAA football game against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Neyland Stadium on September 7, 2002 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tennessee won 26-3. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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Tennessee will wear helmet decals to honor the memory of legendary Lady Vols basketball coach Pat Summitt throughout this season, the Vols have announced.

The decal, according to the release, will be a capital “P” inside a circle, which is based on Summitt’s signature.

Summitt passed away June 28 at the age of 64 due to a lengthy bout with early-onset dementia, Alzheimer’s type. She served as the Lady Vols’ head coach for 38 seasons, compiling an NCAA basketball record 1,098 wins, eight national championships and 16 SEC titles before her retirement in 2012. She was elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2000.

“As a coach, I stand in awe of Pat and what she accomplished on and off the court,” Tennessee head coach Butch Jones said at the time of Summitt’s passing. “She is someone I admired when I decided I wanted to get into coaching. You study all the great coaches, the traits that made them successful, and you try to incorporate those into your own program and teams.  She demanded excellence and her teams played to her personality.

“It was about more than basketball for her, it was about life. She wanted every player that left the program to be prepared for the next stage of their life. Every player received a degree, and that was as important to her as any win on the court. She wouldn’t settle for anything but the best effort on the court and in the classroom.”

Tennessee opens its season Thursday against Appalachian State in Knoxville.

Florida State strength coach Vic Viloria arrested on DUI charge

RALEIGH, NC - SEPTEMBER 27: Florida State Seminoles players take the field for their game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on September 27, 2014 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
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In what has become Discipline Saturday across college football, Florida State has seen one of its coaches entangled with law enforcement. Head football strength coach Vic Viloria was arrested Friday night for driving under the influence as well as property damage. He was released just after noon local time from a Leon County jail, according to the Tallahassee Democrat.

According to the report, police found Viloria asleep at the wheel with his truck in drive and his foot on the break pedal. He had already launched the vehicle up an embankment, missing a utility pole and colliding with an electronic cross-walk sign.

From the paper:

He told police he was coming from work where he drank multiple “big” alcoholic beverages in his office on FSU’s campus. He also acknowledged that he should not have been driving.

A passerby had earlier alerted police to Viloria sitting at the stoplight at Lakeshore Drive and Monroe Street where he sat through several green lights without moving, court records say.

He told police he ended up on the off-ramp as he tried to turn around to head to his Golden Eagle home. Officers noted his watery eyes, slurred speech and a moderate smell of alcohol on his breath.

And the Tallahassee police force’s incident report:

The Seminoles have released the following statement:

“We are aware of the reported incident and are in the process of gathering more information. The issue falls under the human resources policies for university employees, which restricts further comment at this time.”

Viloria is one of Jimbo Fisher‘s top lieutenants, having served as his head strength coach for all seven of Fisher’s year as the Seminoles’ as head coach. His official Florida State bio lists Viloria as “a major part of Florida State’s resurgence.”

“The foundation for the unprecedented success is forged by Viloria,” it reads. “The Seminoles have made noticeable physical gains across the board and significantly cut back on injuries as Viloria and his staff remain on the cutting edge of technology. Under Viloria, FSU became the first college football program to utilize advanced GPS technology to measure energy exertion and regulate rest and physical action.”

Viloria is the second college football coach to be arrested for DUI this month. Nebraska wide receivers coach Keith Williams received his third arrest for such charge, and was suspended without pay for the remainder of the month, while also being required to miss the Huskers’ first four games of the season.

Jimbo Fisher pegs Deondre Francois as QB starter vs. Ole Miss

TALLAHASSEE, FL - APRIL 11:  Head coach Jimbo Fisher of the Florida State Seminole watches action during Florida State's Garnet and Gold spring game at Doak Campbell Stadium on April 11, 2015 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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As if we didn’t already know, Deondre Francois will start at quarterback for Florida State next Monday night against Ole Miss, Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher revealed Saturday.

This particular two and two weren’t hard to put together, considering Francois was in a two-horse race with Sean Maguire and Maguire recently missed time with a foot injury. (Maguire has returned to the practice field two weeks ahead of his four week prognosis, however.)

Maguire saw action in eight games last season and was good, not great. The then-junior connected on 59 percent of his passes for 1,520 yards (an even eight per attempt) with 11 touchdowns against six interceptions, good for an efficiency rating that would have placed him 40th nationally with enough qualifying attempts.

Francois, however, is more in the mold of other Fisher quarterbacks. A consensus four-star recruit out of IMG Academy, Francois was 247Sports‘s No. 64 player nationally in the class of 2015 and the No. 3 pro-style quarterback, ranking behind only UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Alabama’s Blake Barnett.

Earning the start is an incredibly good omen for Francois. Every starting quarterback to matriculate under Fisher at Florida State — read: not Everett Golson — has gone on to become a first-round pick: Christian Ponder to the Vikings, E.J. Manuel to the Bills and Heisman winner Jameis Winston No. 1 overall to the Buccaneers.

Starting Francois is also an incredibly good omen for the Seminoles. Every uber-recent team to win a national championship has been piloted there by a first-year starter at quarterback (with one notable exception), dating back to Alabama’s Greg McElroy in 2009, to Auburn’s Cam Newton in 2010, Alabama’s A.J. McCarron in 2011 (then again in 2012), Winston for Florida State in 2013, Ohio State’s Cardale Jones in 2014 and, finally, Alabama’s Jake Coker in 2015.

Is there anything to that trend beyond mere coincidence? I have no idea. But, should the redshirt freshman hold on to his gig for the remainder of the season, both Francois and Florida State will be on the right side of (recent) history.

The fourth-ranked ‘Noles face No. 11 Ole Miss next Monday night in Orlando (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Oregon DE Torrodney Prevot suspended for alleged assault

TUCSON, AZ - NOVEMBER 23:  linebacker Torrodney Prevot #86 of the Oregon Ducks watches from the sidelines during the college football game against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium on November 23, 2013 in Tucson, Arizona. The Wildcats defeated the Ducks 42-16.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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Oregon has suspended defensive end Torrodney Prevot for a “violation of University and Department of Athletics code of conduct,” head coach Mark Helfrich has announced.

“At the conclusion of the University process, his status as a student-athlete will be evaluated further,” Helfrich said in a statement.

A former Ducks female student-athlete has filed a criminal complaint against Prevot, the Oregon student paper The Daily Emerald reports, claiming he has assaulted her twice in the past year. The paper reports the Eugene Police Department is investigating the matter, in addition to Oregon’s Title IX office, as is required by federal law.

The defense is expected to be a weak point again for the Ducks, with questions abounding about whether the Oregon personnel fits with new coordinator Brady Hoke‘s scheme. “We’re a long way from being any kind of defense,” Hoke said Friday, via the Oregonian. “We’ve got a long way to go to be a defense that’s going to be effective in this league.”

Prevot was not listed on the depth chart Oregon released Friday.

A Houston native, Prevot appeared in all 13 games last fall, starting five, with 48 tackles and 7.5 TFLs.