The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 12

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After that fast start, we’ve been “bowl eligible” for a while now, but our fans are getting restless due to recent mediocrity.

We went 5-6-1 vs. “the number” in Week 11 and that clearly isn’t up to the standards we set around here. A 10-2 straight-up mark ain’t too shabby, but we’re looking for a strong finishing kick.

After 132 games, we’re 74-53-3 (two games weren’t on the board) and 101-31 straight.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Nov. 17 thru Sat., Nov. 19)

1) No. 18 USC at No. 4 Oregon
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

All the pressure is on the Ducks. Every trend points to them and so do most of the matchups. A two-touchdown favorite, Oregon is supposed to win comfortably. Saddled with probation, the Trojans have far less to gain or lose.

When a game shapes up like this, normally we start to envision the unexpected. However, Oregon (9-1, 7-0 in Pac-12) could be the least uptight team in the nation. The Ducks simply march along at their own ultra-rapid pace and seem to get the job done with relative ease, particularly against USC (8-2, 5-2) in recent years.

Oregon has totaled 100 points in its last two games against the Trojans, coasting to a pair of victories. Duck running back LaMichael James enjoys playing against USC more than any other team. The junior has rushed for 422 yards and four scores in those two previous outings versus Tailback U.

For the past couple games, USC has started freshmen at all three linebacker spots. Their speed will serve them well, but those youngsters will have their hands full pre-snap, getting aligned properly against the Ducks’ hurry-up, and post-snap, dealing with lightening fast weaponry, which now includes De’Anthony Thomas, an L.A. product and one-time Trojan commit.

USC has been unsuccessful in its last five visits to the state of Oregon (losses to the Ducks in 2007 and 2009, and to Oregon State in 2006, 2008 and 2010) and has won only twice in its last seven trips to Eugene. If this game were in Los Angeles, we’d go with the upset.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 14 1/2

The pick: Oregon 42-31

Final: USC 38-35

2) No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 25 Baylor
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

If the Sooners can get beat at home by Texas Tech, they can lose to anybody. The Bears are certainly a far more qualified opponent than the Red Raiders, who came into their game at Oklahoma riding a two-game losing streak and since leaving Norman have lost three in a row by a stunning combined score of 159-33.

Baylor (6-3, 3-3 in Big 12) has won its last two games and leads the conference in scoring (40 points per game) and total offense (568 yards per game).

Superstar quarterback Robert Griffin III will get some business done, especially at home where the Bears are 5-0 this season. However, Baylor is allowing an average of 38 points per game (108th in the nation) and won’t be able to slow down a rested Oklahoma offense that will be without the services of all-everything wideout Ryan Broyles, who tore his left ACL in the Sooners’ last game, a 41-25 victory over Texas A&M on Nov. 5.

Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1) has been rejuvenated by Stanford and Boise State getting knocked from the ranks of the undefeated last Saturday, but the Sooners need to avoid the temptation of thinking about Bedlam too much.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma 45-38

Final: Baylor 45-38

3) No. 17 Nebraska at No. 20 Michigan
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, ESPN

The Cornhuskers did an admirable job blocking out all the distractions at Penn State last Saturday, coming away with a 17-14 victory that kept them in the running for the Big Ten’s Legends Division.

Michigan (8-2, 4-2 in the Big Ten) also won its game last week, taking care of Illinois, 31-14, but Wolverine quarterback Denard Robinson picked up a slight injury to his right wrist. Michigan might not opt to go to the air too often against Nebraska, which allows a generous 161 yards rushing per game (eighth in the conference), but when Robinson does fling the football, a gimpy wrist won’t help him break his unfortunate streak of five consecutive games with an interception (total of 13 on the season).

This will be the second time this season that the Cornhuskers play on the road in consecutive weeks. In the first instance, Nebraska got whipped at Wisconsin, 48-17.

Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, who rushed for 192 yards on 27 carries last week versus the Fighting Illini, will be the home team’s hero.

Opening point spread: Michigan by 2 1/2

The pick: Michigan 28-23

Final: Michigan 45-17

4) No. 1 LSU at Mississippi
Sat., Nov. 19 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The only thing the Rebels have going for them is history.

Last year, LSU needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Mississippi, 43-36, which was a huge upgrade for the Tigers, who inexplicably lost their previous two games to the Rebels.

Ole Miss (2-8, 0-6 in SEC), which got humiliated last week in a 27-7 loss at home to Louisiana Tech, doesn’t have a shot to pull off anything remotely similar against Louisiana State (10-0, 6-0).

Not only have the Rebels lost their last 13 conference games, their lame duck coach was forced to suspend quarterback Randall Mackey and running back Jeff Scott for this game due to a violation of team rules.

The Rebel offense was punchless with Mackey and Scott, ranking 113th in total offense and 109th in scoring offense. It’ll be sad to see what Ole Miss is able to generate without them against LSU’s rock solid defense.

The Tigers went through the motions in the first half of last week’s 42-9 victory over Western Kentucky, so they owe Les Miles (and P101) and full 60-minute effort against the Rebels as they tune up for next Friday’s showdown versus Arkansas.

Opening point spread: LSU by 28 1/2

The pick: LSU 42-6

Final: LSU 52-3

5) No. 21 Penn State at Ohio State
Sat., Nov. 19 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Tom Bradley vs. Luke Fickell. It doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as Joe Paterno vs. Jim Tressel, but if you dig deep enough through the muck, it’s still Penn State vs. Ohio State and both teams have a lot to play for on the football field.

Penn State (8-2, 5-1 in Big Ten) can clinch at least a share of the Leaders Division title with a victory over Ohio State (6-4, 3-3).

Both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing losses that saw them fall three points short. The Nittany Lions got beat, 17-14, by Nebraska at home, while the Buckeyes fell, 26-23, in overtime at Purdue.

Unlike the oddsmakers, we see this as a toss up and we’ll adopt the opinion that Penn State will find refuge and focus by being together as a team on the road.

Opening point spread: Ohio State by 7

The pick: Penn State 21-17

Final: Penn State 20-14

6) North Carolina at No. 9 Virginia Tech
Thurs., Nov. 17 — 8 p.m. ET, ESP

The Hokies are close to wrapping up the Coastal Division crown. All Virginia Tech (9-1, 5-1 in ACC) needs is a victory over fading North Carolina (6-4, 2-4) and Virginia to stumble at Florida State two days later.

This spotlight game matches two of the ACC’s top running backs against two of the league’s best run defenses. VT’s David Wilson leads the country with 1,360 rushing yards, while UNC’s Giovani Bernard is the nation’s top freshman ground gainer with 1,012 yards so far this season.

Wilson (career-high 175 yards rushing) and quarterback Logan Thomas (accounted for five touchdowns) came up big in the Hokies’ 37-26 victory last week at Georgia Tech. That stands in stark contrast to the Tar Heels who got blanked 13-0 at N.C. State on Nov. 5 and had to stew over that during last week’s bye.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 10 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 31-14

Final: Virginia Tech 24-21

7) Kentucky at No. 13 Georgia
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, SEC Network

Remember when the Bulldogs opened the season with losses to Boise State and South Carolina, and Mark Richt was half-way out of Athens?

A reversal of fortune has Georgia (8-2, 6-1 in SEC) poised to clinch the Eastern Division title with a victory over Kentucky (4-6, 1-5).

Last season, Bulldog tailback Washaun Ealey rushed for 157 yards and five touchdowns in a 44-31 victory over the host Wildcats.

He won’t reach the end zone as often, but freshman Isaiah Crowell will pick up where Ealey left off against a Kentucky defense that allowed 38 points and 203 rushing yards last week in a miserable loss at Vanderbilt. That was a far cry from the 45-7 beating Georgia put on defending league and national champ Auburn last Saturday.

There’s also a huge gap between the quarterbacks with Aaron Murray lightyears ahead of UK freshman Maxwell Smith.

The Wildcats have not scored more than eight points in any road game this season, so the Bulldogs should have enough points to win by the time the first quarter ends.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 27 1/2

The pick: Georgia 41-6

Final: Georgia 19-10

8) No. 2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Fri., Nov. 18 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Powered by quarterback Brandon Weeden, wideout Justin Blackmon, running back Joseph Randle and a veteran offensive line, the Cowboy offense is incredibly efficient. Giving them extra possessions is simply deadly. But that’s exactly what’s been happening this season and why Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0 in Big 12) is undefeated and in position to play for the BCS title. The Cowboy defense leads the nation in takeaways (34) and turnover margin (+1.8).

Oklahoma State deserves a ton of credit for shutting out the Texas Tech offense in last Saturday’s 66-6 rout. That performance was the exact opposite of allowing 45 points to Kansas State at home the week before.

Iowa State (5-4, 2-4), which ranks last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and turnover margin, doesn’t match up at all against what the Cowboys have to offer.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 25

The pick: Oklahoma State 52-19

Final: Iowa State 37-31, 2OT

9) California at No. 8 Stanford
Sat., Nov. 19 — 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. 

With the Golden Bears coming to Palo Alto, the Cardinal have to quickly lick their wounds and move on.

The habit Stanford (9-1, 7-1 in Pac-12) had of winning their games by three touchdowns or more makes its return this week.

The Cardinal will buckle down and slow Isi Sofele and the rest of the Bear running attack, forcing them to take to the air.

Quarterback play for California (6-4, 3-4) has been spotty and although its wideouts are outstanding, you have to be able to get the ball to them. That won’t happen against an angry Stanford defense that feels it needs to redeem itself.

Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck will still be without some of his weapons, but he’ll rise above last week’s adversity and lead Stanford to a big victory over its arch rival.

Opening point spread: Stanford by 20

The pick: Stanford 52-24

Final: Stanford 31-28

10) Harvard at Yale
Sat., Nov. 19 — Noon ET, Versus

“The Game” is apparently bigger than “the scholarship.” At least it is to Yale quarterback Patrick Witt, who has chosen to play against Harvard on Saturday instead of attend a Rhodes Scholarship interview.

Witt, who was a finalist for the prestigious scholarship to Oxford, has withdrawn his application. Instead he hopes to lead the Bulldogs to their first victory over the Crimson in the last five years.

Harvard (8-1, 6-0 in Ivy), which was won nine of the last 10 meetings in this classic series, leads the Ivy League in both total offense and scoring. The Crimson haven’t scored less than 35 points in their last six games. Yale (5-4, 4-2), on the other hand, hasn’t scored that many in a single game since September.

Opening point spread: N/A

The pick: Harvard 38-24

Final: Harvard 45-7

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Mississippi State at No. 6 Arkansas
Sat., Nov. 19 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Despite taking a beating last week when they undervalued the Razorbacks, which resulted in enough action to move the line three points in an eventual 49-7 steamrolling of Tennessee, oddsmakers have once again made Arkansas (9-1, 5-1 in SEC) less than a two-touchdown favorite as the Hogs look to close out their home schedule a perfect 8-0 for the first time in over a decade.

Having allowed just 16 points per game over the their last eight contests, Mississippi State (5-5, 1-5) could offer some resistance against the SEC’s top-ranked offensive unit that has scored at least 38 points in each of its home games, but the Bulldog’s anemic offense isn’t likely to keep up regardless.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 12

The pick: Arkansas 34-13

Final: Arkansas 44-17

No. 10 Boise State at San Diego State
Sat., Nov. 19 — 8 p.m. ET

The last time the Broncos lost a game — these errant three-pointers seem to be their bugaboo — they took out their frustrations on Utah State, registering a 50-14 victory in their final game as a member of the WAC.

That’s not good news for San Diego State (6-3, 3-2 in MWC), which has the unenviable task of being next up for Boise State (8-1, 3-1).

Having to visit Qualcomm Stadium might further enrage the Broncos, who are now being talked about as a Poinsettia Bowl participant after having their national championship and BCS dreams dashed by TCU last Saturday.

The capable Aztec pass defense will make Kellen Moore put in an honest night’s work to wrap up his 47th collegiate victory.

Opening point spread: Boise State by 16

The pick: Boise State 35-17

Final: Boise State 52-35

Week 12 record: 9-3
Total: 110-34

Maryland adds Tyler Bowen to staff as OL coach, reassigns Dave Borbely to off-the-field role

STATE COLLEGE, PA - OCTOBER 08: Head coach DJ Durkin of the Maryland Terrapins reacts in the first quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium on October 8, 2016 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
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Spring practice is just around the corner but Maryland coach D.J. Durkin is still tinkering with his coaching staff.

The school announced on Saturday afternoon that Fordham offensive line coach/offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen is joining the Terps as the team’s new OL coach. Bowen is no stranger to the program, having played for the school for three years before becoming a student assistant coach for then-head coach Ralph Friedgen in 2010. He also served as a graduate assistant with the Terps for two seasons.

That’s not the only move being made by Durkin however, as former offensive line coach Dave Borbely is remaining in College Park. According to the school’s release, the coaching veteran will remain on the staff — but in an off-the-field role as Special Assistant to the Head Coach.

Adding Bowen as an on-field coach is the bigger news for the program though. With current Maryland OC Walt Bell still calling plays, the two should be an interesting mix and give the Terps two bright young offensive minds to lead that side of the ball as the team tries to build on a surprising turnaround season from 2016.

Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield arrested in Arkansas

DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 10:  Baker Mayfield #6 of the Oklahoma Sooners walks off the field after a 24-17 loss against the Texas Longhorns during the 2015 AT&T Red River Showdown at Cotton Bowl on October 10, 2015 in Dallas, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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They always say a quiet offseason is a good offseason in college football. That appears as though it will not be the case for  Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops this year however.

According to booking information and a preliminary police report released by the Washington County Sheriff’s Office in Arkansas, Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield was arrested early Saturday morning and charged with public intoxication, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest and fleeing the scene.

The report also states that Mayfield was booked at 8:21 a.m. CT on Saturday morning and released at 11:07 a.m. A preliminary hearing on the case has been scheduled for 8 a.m. in Fayetteville District Court on Monday.

Mayfield has been a star for Oklahoma the past two seasons in leading the team to back-to-back Big 12 titles. He was a Heisman Trophy finalist a season ago and is expected to be a front-runner for the award in 2017 as a senior.

An Oklahoma statement on the matter said they are aware of the matter but are still gathering information. The Sooners are set to begin spring practice on March 21st and open the season against UTEP before traveling to Ohio State the second week of the year for what is likely a top five showdown.

UMass hires Ed Pinkham as defensive coordinator

HADLEY, MA - SEPTEMBER 17:  The Massachusetts Minutemen run onto the field prior to the game against the FIU Golden Panthers at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium on September 17, 2016 in Hadley, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)
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After floundering on defense the past three years, UMass’ change at the top on that side of the ball is official.

The football program, via a press release, announced Saturday that Mark Whipple has signed off on Ed Pinkham as his new defensive coordinator.  Pinkham replaces Tom Masella, who was ousted last month after three years on the job.

Whipple and Pinkham have a previous working relationship, serving on the same staff at New Hampshire in the late eighties.

“I’ve known Ed since we worked together at UNH,” Whipple said in a statement. “I have tremendous respect for his approach and how his defenses have always played. He brings a wealth of knowledge at the FBS level. He’s an outstanding recruiter and great leader of young men. I couldn’t be more excited about the future of our program as we head into winter conditioning and spring practice.”

Pinkham had spent the past three seasons as the coordinator at Western Michigan.  Last season, the Broncos finished 16th nationally in scoring defense at 19.5 points per game.

The Minutemen in 2016 were 108th in the same category at 35.5 points per game.  The previous two seasons, they were 93rd (31.4) and 105th (33.0).

“I’m extremely excited to be back in New England and renewing relationships with coaches I’ve worked with in the past at previous stops,” Pinkham said. “I coached against UMass so I’m aware of the strong football tradition that exists here. I’m excited to play a role in achieving the goals that we set as a staff and as a program.”

Pinkham has also served as the coordinator at Rutgers (2009-10) and as secondary coach at Minnesota (1989-91) during a coaching career that began in 1975.

‘Insensitive, regrettable comment’ leads Jon Reschke to transfer from Michigan State

EAST LANSING, MI - NOVEMBER 28: Christian Hackenberg #14 of the Penn State Nittany Lions passes while under pressure from Jon Reschke #33 of the Michigan State Spartans in the first half of the game at Spartan Stadium on November 28, 2015 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
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An offseason of discontent continues in East Lansing, with another likely starter leaving Michigan State amidst head-scratching circumstances.

In a statement, Jon Reschke announced that he has decided to transfer out of the Spartans football program.  The reason? “Over a month ago, in an argument and a brief moment of anger, I lost control of my emotions and made an insensitive and totally regrettable comment involving a former teammate,” the linebacker wrote.

Just what that comment was and to who it was directed was not detailed.  Below is Reschke’s statement, in its entirety.

Over a month ago, in an argument and a brief moment of anger, I lost control of my emotions and made an insensitive and totally regrettable comment involving a former teammate. In so doing, I have hurt and offended countless number of people, and for that, I am deeply sorry. If I could take my comment back, I would do so in a second.

“I have addressed my teammates and coaches and while many understand my actions were totally uncharacteristic of who I am, the hurt still lingers. Therefore, after discussions with coach Dantonio and other members of the staff, we have mutually decided that I will complete my degree and seek the opportunity of a graduate transfer for my final year of football.

“To the entire Spartan Nation, to all of my teammates past and present, to coach Dantonio and the entire coaching staff, to all the trainers, managers and administrators – I offer my sincere apology and I thank you for the greatest four years of my life. I will always cherish the friendships, the memories and the journey. There is no doubt in my mind that the Spartan Dawgs will rise up and again return to being one of the strongest programs in college football. Forever Go Green, God Bless.

After starting all 14 games for the Spartans in 2015, Reschke started two of the first three this past season before an ankle injury knocked him out for the remainder of the year.  The junior missed the season opener because of another injury.

He had been expected to reassume his starting role this coming season prior to the off-field incident.

Earlier this monthThiyo Lukusa, the projected starter at right tackle, announced that he was leaving not only the football team but the sport, citing a loss of love and passion for the game.  Additionally, three unidentified football players as well as a football staffer were suspended amidst sexual assault allegations.