The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 14

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Even if we drop every game here in “championship week” — and we might — it’ll still be a winning campaign. Every season starts with the goal to not get fired. Once again, here at the end, we’ve earned a contract extension.

Week 13 didn’t bring any bad luck, but it didn’t bring good luck either. We went 5-5 vs. “the number” and 6-4 straight-up.

After 154 games, we’re 86-62-3 (three games weren’t on the board) and 116-38 straight. Twenty-four units to the good ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how close we can get to 34 units up.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Dec. 1 thru Sat., Dec. 3)

1) No. 12 Georgia vs. No. 1 LSU in SEC title game at Atlanta
Sat., Dec. 3 — 4 p.m. ET, CBS

You can’t blame the Bulldogs for feeling disrespected. After posting a 31-17 victory at Georgia Tech last week to push its winning streak to 10 games, Georgia (10-2, 7-1 in SEC) dropped a spot in the BCS Standings to 14th.

Adding to the feeling of invisibility in Athens is this prevailing belief among the pundits that even if the Eastern Dawgs defeat the Western Tigers, top-ranked LSU (12-0, 8-0) will still qualify to the play for the BCS title.

Georgia’s plan is to show up and fight for that trip to the Sugar Bowl. Whether the Bulldogs are able to stand up to LSU’s relentless assault in all three phases of the game is another matter entirely.

While the Tigers have a defense with more potential and punch than the Indianapolis Colts, Georgia can present the appearance of stout unit statistically (10th in scoring defense, sixth in rushing defense, fifth in total defense and fourth in passing efficiency defense). However, those stats are largely built at the expense of the SEC’s also-rans, Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State.

Although 10 wins separate the Dawgs from the back-to-back losses that opened the season, we have to revisit those performances against Boise State and South Carolina because the Broncos and Gamecocks offer the best comparisons to the challenges presented by LSU’s offense.

After seeing how Arkansas’ passing attack got locked up by the Tiger secondary last week, it doesn’t seem likely that Bulldog quarterback Aaron Murray will be able to get things going versus the “Honey Badger” and his friends. Pass protection and ground support won’t be there either.

Opening point spread: LSU by 10

The pick: LSU 29-10

Final: LSU 42-10

2) No. 15 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Michigan State in Big Ten title game at Indianapolis
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8:17 p.m. ET, FOX

Throw that “Hail Mary” out the window and let’s consider this the overtime session that never started.

The Badgers certainly would be in favor of that, but then again they wouldn’t be able to play up the revenge angle.

We never really put much credence into that sort of thing. That’s good for talking up the game during the week and fans eat revenge up, but when the pads start cracking after the opening kickoff, all of that melts away.

Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2 in Big Ten) and Michigan State (10-2, 7-1) own the two best scoring defenses in the Big Ten, but each team was able to generate 31 points against one another before that last-second heave. More specifically, we’d like to point out that the Badgers seemed to be able to generate offense when they needed to in that last meeting, opening up a 14-0 lead early and coming back from a 31-17 deficit late.

While Russell Wilson and Montee Ball get the glory for that sort of production, it’s the excellent offensive line that makes it possible.

In addition, we have to question the Spartans’ effectiveness away from East Lansing. They surrendered 31 points in a loss at Notre Dame, scored only 10 at Ohio State and got dumped 24-3 at Nebraska. Even November victories at Iowa and Northwestern weren’t overwhelming.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 10

The pick: Wisconsin 31-24

Final: Wisconsin 42-39

3) No. 13 Oklahoma at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

We could go on and on about the leaky Sooner secondary. Or discuss the injuries to key offensive personel — wideout Ryan Broyles (knee), tailback Dominique Whaley (ankle), etc. But the fact of the matter is this: the Sooners have a heavy habit of coming out on top in Bedlam and playing in premier bowls.

Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1) has never won an outright Big 12 (or Big Eight) title or participated in the BCS. To do so this year, the Cowboys will have to beat Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2) for the first time since 2002.

This will be a shootout and as is always the case, maximizing possessions and staying away from turnovers will be the key. That gives the Cowboys a leg up as only top-ranked LSU owns a better turnover margin than they do.

In last season’s meeting, Sooner quarterback Landry Jones helped out the OSU cause by throwing three interceptions, but he also completed 37 passes to his teammates for 468 yards and four touchdowns, fueling a 47-41 victory, which also was in Stillwater.

This will be a similar shootout.

The underdog Sooners can snatch a share of the Big 12 title and, more importantly, a BCS berth with a win. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have to deal with the heavy pressure of not screwing up their big chance. Even a shot at the national championship is a possibility. It’s too much to think about and too much to handle.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 3

The pick: Oklahoma 38-35

Final: Oklahoma State 44-10

4) No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 21 Clemson in ACC title game at Charlotte, N.C.
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Perhaps the Tigers should be credited with getting the Hokies in gear.

On Oct. 1, Clemson (9-3, 6-2 in ACC) barged into Blacksburg and rolled out with a dominating 23-3 victory, holding Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1) without a touchdown at home for the first time since 1984.

After that game, the Hokies have been a different team, winning seven in row to earn this shot at their fourth league title within the past five seasons.

Massive 6-foot-6 quarterback Logan Thomas has led the revival. He threw for just 125 yards in the loss to Clemson, but has since accounted for 23 touchdowns (14 through the air and nine on the ground) during the seven-game winning streak.

The Tigers have been in a free-fall during the past month. Not only have they lost three of their last four games, the lone victory was a slim 31-28 decision over Wake Forest at home. That’s a far cry from the 8-0 start that had the nation talking.

Dabo Swinney’s young team — 29 freshmen have seen action this year — ran out of gas weeks ago. We don’t have much reason to believe that they’ll be able to recapture the midseason magic.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 6 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 31-17

Final: Clemson 38-10

5) Texas at No. 19 Baylor
Sat., Dec. 3 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the ever dependable P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Despite getting sidelined for the second half of the Bears’ 66-42 victory over Texas Tech last week, Robert Griffin III kept his Heisman candidacy alive by finding the end zone three times in the first 30 minutes, bringing his season TD total to 41.

In what could be the penultimate game of his collegiate career, the redshirt junior is one of four players in FBS history with more than 9,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing.

Texas (7-4, 4-4 in Big 12) got some extra time to shake any possible Thanksgiving Day hangover from defeating Texas A&M, 27-25, on a 40-yard field goal as time expired. But, sophomore quarterback Case McCoy (just 135 total yards last week) has so far done little to replicate the accomplishments of older brother Colt, so it’s difficult to envision the Longhorn offense keeping up with Baylor (8-3, 5-3), which is the nation’s only team averaging more than 300 yards through the air and 200 on the ground.

Respect must be given to a Texas defense that ranks ninth in the nation, allowing 298 yards per game, but they’ll be hard-pressed to hold down RG3 and an explosive Bear attack complemented by running back Terrance Ganaway and wide receiver Kendall Wright.

Baylor came into Austin on a three-game losing streak last year before defeating Texas for the first time in 13 tries. Riding a four-game winning streak into this contest, the Bears can get over the hump against their in-state foe in Waco for the first time since 1997.

Opening point spread: Baylor by 2

The pick: Baylor 34-24

Final: Baylor 48-24

6) Connecticut at Cincinnati
Sat., Dec. 3 — Noon ET, ESPN

The Huskies’ biggest fans are in Louisville this week. A Connecticut upset would send the 7-5 Cardinals to the BCS.

Cincinnati (8-3, 4-2 in Big East) could grab that golden ticket with a win if Thursday night features South Florida eliminating West Virginia (see below) from this ridiculous race for an undeserved spot in the BCS.

In theory, Connecticut (5-6, 3-3) benefits from the fact that Bearcat quarterback Zach Collaros is out with an injured ankle, but then again, it was Collaros who threw four interceptions to gift-wrap a 38-17 victory for the Huskies last year at Rentschler Field.

UConn certainly has been in a greedy mood as of late, coming up with six takeaways in last Saturday’s 40-22 victory over Rutgers. That puts a lot of pressure on backup quarterback Munchie Legaux, who is just a sophomore, and senior running back Isaiah Pead, who will have to carry much of the load.

Opening point spread: Cincinnati by 8 1/2

The pick: Cincinnati 27-26

Final: Cincinnati 35-27

7) No. 22 West Virginia at South Florida
Thurs., Dec. 1 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

How do you think B.J. Daniels felt while watching footage of West Virginia’s 21-20 victory over Pitt last week? The Mountaineers’ 10 quarterback sacks must have sparked some concern within the USF signalcaller who sat out last week’s game with an injured shoulder.

When West Virginia (8-3, 4-2 in Big East) really needed to make defensive plays, like during the Panthers’ final drive, it came up big, dropping Pitt QB Tino Sunseri four times.

However, South Florida (5-6, 1-5), which needs a win to become bowl eligible for the seventh consecutive year, might be the one putting the most pressure on the passer in this matchup.

The Mountaineers have just a shred of a running game and leave most of the heavy lifting to capable quarterback Geno Smith. That might not work out so well against a defense that’s averaging 3.6 sacks per game and can pin its ears back even more.

Opening point spread: Even

The pick: South Florida 26-24

Final: West Virginia 30-27

8) Ohio vs. Northern Illinois in MAC title game at Detroit
Fri., Dec. 2 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Both the Bobcats and Huskies are in high gear as they approach Detroit.

Ohio (9-3, 6-2 in MAC) has won its last five games after experiencing a mid-season slump. Northern Illinois (9-3, 7-1) is even hotter, having taken its last seven, following a 48-41 loss at Central Michigan to open league play on Oct. 1.

Each team has been receiving quality quarterbacking and can score. The difference between the two is apparent on the other side of the football.

The Huskie defense, which ranks 91st in total yards allowed and 94th in points allowed, has been particularly porous outside of DeKalb, surrendering nearly 40 points per game (60 at Toledo on Nov. 1). That doesn’t matchup well with a balanced Bobcat attack that averages 212 yards on the ground and 252 through the air.

Opening point spread: Northern Illinois by 4 1/2

The pick: Ohio 37-31

Final: Northern Illinois 23-20

9) No. 24 Southern Miss at No. 7 Houston in C-USA title game
Sat., Dec. 3 — Noon ET, ABC

While the Cougar offense and gunslinger Case Keenum have garnered all the attention this season, we were most impressed with the team’s defense in last week’s dominating 48-16 victory at Tulsa.

Houston (12-0, 8-0 in C-USA) hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its last four games. That’s deadly in combination with an offensive attack that averages nearly 53 points per game.

Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2) has won four of its six road games this season, but both of those losses were to teams without winning records (Marshall and UAB). That seems to suggest that the Golden Eagles won’t have nearly enough focus to stay with the rampaging Cougars.

Being within arms reach of a BCS berth adds a great deal of pressure to Houston. And UCLA’s interest in head coach Kevin Sumlin provides some unwanted distractions. But we’re going to ride with the Cougars … until January.

Opening point spread: Houston by 13

The pick: Houston 52-34

Final: Southern Miss 49-28

10) UCLA at No. 8 Oregon in Pac-12 title game
Fri., Dec. 2 — 8 p.m. ET, FOX

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i. Much like Chip Kelly, he’s taken on much tougher assignments this season. Blame Reggie Bush’s parents for this absolute dud of a “championship” game.

Rick Neuheisel would love nothing better than to send his Bruins to the Rose Bowl. (Notice we said “send,” not “take,” as the already fired coach won’t be allowed to stick around for that one if something on par with Chaminade over Virginia happens to occur.)

Expect UCLA (6-6, 5-4 in Pac-12) to come out with its pistol playbook wide open, hoping to catch Oregon (10-2, 8-1) off guard.

The Bruins, who didn’t get any last week at USC, will score a few points early. The Ducks will counter with an avalanche of touchdowns to put UCLA out of its misery and send Rick off rudely.

Oregon hosted UCLA last year and easily covered a similarly massive number with a 60-13 victory.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 29 1/2

The pick: Oregon 56-20

Final: Oregon 49-31

Week 14 record: 5-5
Total: 121-43

Kentucky OC Eddie Gran gets contract extension and raise

LEXINGTON, KY - AUGUST 30:  The Kentucky Wildcats take the field before the game against the Tennessee- Martin Skyhawks at Commonwealth Stadium on August 30, 2014 in Lexington, Kentucky.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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After making some changes to the coaching staff this offseason, Kentucky is locking in offensive coordinator Eddie Gran for the next few seasons. Kentucky has signed Gran to a contract extension good through the 2019 season, according to The Courier-Journal.

According to the reported contract extension, Gran will be paid $825,000 in the 2017 season and will be given a $25,000 raise each of the next two seasons. A buyout cost of $150,000 per years is also added to the contract should he leave for another job during that span. Gran was originally under contract through the 2018 season, so his new deal tacks on an extra year in Lexington. The extended contract also bumps Gran’s pay by $175,000 compared to his previous contract.

Kentucky may have finished the 2017 season ranked 9th in the SEC in total scoring, but the Wildcats bumped up their average points per game by roughly six points in 2016 compared to the 2015 season. Kentucky also had the SEC’s third-most productive rushing attack with an average of 234.15 rushing yards per game and 30 rushing touchdowns. Only Auburn and Alabama had better averages and touchdown totals (and Alabama had two more games to pad the stats).

Kentucky has room to improve in the passing game after finishing the 2016 season ranked 13th in passing offense in the 14-team SEC. Kentucky also had an SEC-high 28 turnovers lost in 2016, with 16 fumbles and 12 interceptions thrown.

Gran joined the Kentucky program last year after a three-year stint at Cincinnati as offensive coordinator. Gran has previously been an assistant at Florida State, Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss as well.

Nebraska WR coach Keith Williams sentenced to 30 days in jail for August DUI

LINCOLN, NE - SEPTEMBER 22: A cheerleader waves a flag after the Nebraska Cornhuskers score against the Idaho State Bengals during their game at Memorial Stadium on September 22, 2012 in Lincoln, Nebraska. Nebraska won 73-7. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)
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Nebraska wide receivers coach Keith Williams pled no contest to charges from a DUI incident last August. On Wednesday, he received his sentence from a county judge and learned he would be sentenced to 30 days in jail and three years of probation.

According to The Lincoln Journal-Star, Williams was also fined $1,000 for his latest DUI charge. Williams has until March 3 to apply for house arrest, although prosecutors made a push for Williams to serve his time behind bars after not being locked up for two prior DUI charges.

Nebraska opens spring football practices on March 4. If he is ruled eligible for house arrest, that would allow Williams to continue coaching in the spring. Otherwise, he could have to miss at least some of Nebraska’s spring practices depending on when his jail sentence would begin.

Williams was pulled over for driving under the influence last August with a BAC above .15. Further complicating things was the fact Williams also had two previous convictions for DUI. Nebraska head coach Mike Riley suspended Williams without pay through the end of August and was prohibited from coaching in Nebraska’s first four games of the 2016 season.

Michigan adds former Hawaii defensive cooridnator Kevin Lempa as defensive analyst

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Former Hawaii defensive coordinator Kevin Lempa has landed in Ann arbor with a new job. Michigan announced Lempa has joined the staff as a senior defensive analyst under Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Don Brown.

“Kevin is a great addition to our football program and defensive staff,” said Harbaugh in a released statement. “He adds a wealth of experience and knowledge on the defensive side of the ball, and Kevin’s working relationship with Coach (Don) Brown will be a big asset for our team.”

“I am very excited and honored to become part of Coach Harbaugh’s staff,” Lempa said in his released statement. “I am also fired up to be working with Coach Brown again.”

Lempa resigned from his position with the Hawaii program following the 2016 season. He previously served as a defensive backs coach at Boston College from 2013 through 2015, when Brown was the defensive coordinator of the Eagles.

As a defensive analyst, Lempa will not have any hands-on instruction with the Michigan roster but will assist in film breakdown and other orders of business in preparing Michigan’s game plan.

NCAA charges Ole Miss of lack of institutional control; Rebels self-impose 2017 postseason ban

FILE - In this Oct. 19, 2013, file photo, Mississippi football coach Hugh Freeze leads his team to the field prior to their NCAA college football game against LSU  in Oxford, Miss. Mississippi has aspirations of competing for SEC titles. No. 11 Ole Miss (4-0, 1-0) plays No. 3 Alabama (4-0, 1-0) on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014,  in its biggest home game in more than a decade.  (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)
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The Ole Miss Rebels will not be going to a postseason game in 2017 after the university opted to self-impose a one-year postseason ban. The decision came as a result of an updated notice of allegations received from the NCAA as part of an expanded investigation. The school has charged the program and university of a lack of institutional control.

Ole Miss Chancellor Jeff Vitter, athletics director Ross Bjork and football coach Hugh Freeze provided an update on the latest regarding its NCAA investigation with a video.

In addition to the 2017 postseason ban, Ole Miss will forfeit all annual postseason revenue (reportedly to be about $7 million).

The latest notice of allegations included eight potential violations from the football program, including setting up hunting trips for a student-athlete on private land owned by a booster, providing housing for recruits and boosters providing food to student-athletes enrolled at another institution and more. Freeze was charged with violating head coach responsibility legislation. As expected, Ole Miss will contest the latest allegations levied against the university and football program that are deemed not supported by evidence.

The latest allegations:

  1. Prospective student-athlete went hunting on private land owned by booster, arranged by football program (Level III)
  2. Former staff member arranged for lodging and transportation for prospective student-athlete enrolled at another institution (Level I)
  3. Same former staff member knowingly committed recruiting violations and provided false information to enforcement staff (Level I)
  4. Same former staff member initiated and facilitated two boosters having contact with a recruit (Level I)
  5. A different former staff member arranged for friend of a recruit and two recruits to receive merchandise from a store owned by a booster amounting to $2,800 (Level I)
  6. Freeze had impermissible in-person, off-campus contact with a recruit (Level III)
  7. Booster provided money, food and drinks to a recruit and his companions at booster-owned restaurant on two to three occasions (Level I)
  8. Freeze violated head coach responsibility legislation
  9. Scope and nature of violations demonstrate university lacked institutional control and failed to monitor conduct and administration of athletics program (Level I)

Ole Miss has 90 days to appeal.