The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 14

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Even if we drop every game here in “championship week” — and we might — it’ll still be a winning campaign. Every season starts with the goal to not get fired. Once again, here at the end, we’ve earned a contract extension.

Week 13 didn’t bring any bad luck, but it didn’t bring good luck either. We went 5-5 vs. “the number” and 6-4 straight-up.

After 154 games, we’re 86-62-3 (three games weren’t on the board) and 116-38 straight. Twenty-four units to the good ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how close we can get to 34 units up.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Dec. 1 thru Sat., Dec. 3)

1) No. 12 Georgia vs. No. 1 LSU in SEC title game at Atlanta
Sat., Dec. 3 — 4 p.m. ET, CBS

You can’t blame the Bulldogs for feeling disrespected. After posting a 31-17 victory at Georgia Tech last week to push its winning streak to 10 games, Georgia (10-2, 7-1 in SEC) dropped a spot in the BCS Standings to 14th.

Adding to the feeling of invisibility in Athens is this prevailing belief among the pundits that even if the Eastern Dawgs defeat the Western Tigers, top-ranked LSU (12-0, 8-0) will still qualify to the play for the BCS title.

Georgia’s plan is to show up and fight for that trip to the Sugar Bowl. Whether the Bulldogs are able to stand up to LSU’s relentless assault in all three phases of the game is another matter entirely.

While the Tigers have a defense with more potential and punch than the Indianapolis Colts, Georgia can present the appearance of stout unit statistically (10th in scoring defense, sixth in rushing defense, fifth in total defense and fourth in passing efficiency defense). However, those stats are largely built at the expense of the SEC’s also-rans, Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State.

Although 10 wins separate the Dawgs from the back-to-back losses that opened the season, we have to revisit those performances against Boise State and South Carolina because the Broncos and Gamecocks offer the best comparisons to the challenges presented by LSU’s offense.

After seeing how Arkansas’ passing attack got locked up by the Tiger secondary last week, it doesn’t seem likely that Bulldog quarterback Aaron Murray will be able to get things going versus the “Honey Badger” and his friends. Pass protection and ground support won’t be there either.

Opening point spread: LSU by 10

The pick: LSU 29-10

Final: LSU 42-10

2) No. 15 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Michigan State in Big Ten title game at Indianapolis
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8:17 p.m. ET, FOX

Throw that “Hail Mary” out the window and let’s consider this the overtime session that never started.

The Badgers certainly would be in favor of that, but then again they wouldn’t be able to play up the revenge angle.

We never really put much credence into that sort of thing. That’s good for talking up the game during the week and fans eat revenge up, but when the pads start cracking after the opening kickoff, all of that melts away.

Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2 in Big Ten) and Michigan State (10-2, 7-1) own the two best scoring defenses in the Big Ten, but each team was able to generate 31 points against one another before that last-second heave. More specifically, we’d like to point out that the Badgers seemed to be able to generate offense when they needed to in that last meeting, opening up a 14-0 lead early and coming back from a 31-17 deficit late.

While Russell Wilson and Montee Ball get the glory for that sort of production, it’s the excellent offensive line that makes it possible.

In addition, we have to question the Spartans’ effectiveness away from East Lansing. They surrendered 31 points in a loss at Notre Dame, scored only 10 at Ohio State and got dumped 24-3 at Nebraska. Even November victories at Iowa and Northwestern weren’t overwhelming.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 10

The pick: Wisconsin 31-24

Final: Wisconsin 42-39

3) No. 13 Oklahoma at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

We could go on and on about the leaky Sooner secondary. Or discuss the injuries to key offensive personel — wideout Ryan Broyles (knee), tailback Dominique Whaley (ankle), etc. But the fact of the matter is this: the Sooners have a heavy habit of coming out on top in Bedlam and playing in premier bowls.

Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1) has never won an outright Big 12 (or Big Eight) title or participated in the BCS. To do so this year, the Cowboys will have to beat Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2) for the first time since 2002.

This will be a shootout and as is always the case, maximizing possessions and staying away from turnovers will be the key. That gives the Cowboys a leg up as only top-ranked LSU owns a better turnover margin than they do.

In last season’s meeting, Sooner quarterback Landry Jones helped out the OSU cause by throwing three interceptions, but he also completed 37 passes to his teammates for 468 yards and four touchdowns, fueling a 47-41 victory, which also was in Stillwater.

This will be a similar shootout.

The underdog Sooners can snatch a share of the Big 12 title and, more importantly, a BCS berth with a win. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have to deal with the heavy pressure of not screwing up their big chance. Even a shot at the national championship is a possibility. It’s too much to think about and too much to handle.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 3

The pick: Oklahoma 38-35

Final: Oklahoma State 44-10

4) No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 21 Clemson in ACC title game at Charlotte, N.C.
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Perhaps the Tigers should be credited with getting the Hokies in gear.

On Oct. 1, Clemson (9-3, 6-2 in ACC) barged into Blacksburg and rolled out with a dominating 23-3 victory, holding Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1) without a touchdown at home for the first time since 1984.

After that game, the Hokies have been a different team, winning seven in row to earn this shot at their fourth league title within the past five seasons.

Massive 6-foot-6 quarterback Logan Thomas has led the revival. He threw for just 125 yards in the loss to Clemson, but has since accounted for 23 touchdowns (14 through the air and nine on the ground) during the seven-game winning streak.

The Tigers have been in a free-fall during the past month. Not only have they lost three of their last four games, the lone victory was a slim 31-28 decision over Wake Forest at home. That’s a far cry from the 8-0 start that had the nation talking.

Dabo Swinney’s young team — 29 freshmen have seen action this year — ran out of gas weeks ago. We don’t have much reason to believe that they’ll be able to recapture the midseason magic.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 6 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 31-17

Final: Clemson 38-10

5) Texas at No. 19 Baylor
Sat., Dec. 3 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the ever dependable P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Despite getting sidelined for the second half of the Bears’ 66-42 victory over Texas Tech last week, Robert Griffin III kept his Heisman candidacy alive by finding the end zone three times in the first 30 minutes, bringing his season TD total to 41.

In what could be the penultimate game of his collegiate career, the redshirt junior is one of four players in FBS history with more than 9,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing.

Texas (7-4, 4-4 in Big 12) got some extra time to shake any possible Thanksgiving Day hangover from defeating Texas A&M, 27-25, on a 40-yard field goal as time expired. But, sophomore quarterback Case McCoy (just 135 total yards last week) has so far done little to replicate the accomplishments of older brother Colt, so it’s difficult to envision the Longhorn offense keeping up with Baylor (8-3, 5-3), which is the nation’s only team averaging more than 300 yards through the air and 200 on the ground.

Respect must be given to a Texas defense that ranks ninth in the nation, allowing 298 yards per game, but they’ll be hard-pressed to hold down RG3 and an explosive Bear attack complemented by running back Terrance Ganaway and wide receiver Kendall Wright.

Baylor came into Austin on a three-game losing streak last year before defeating Texas for the first time in 13 tries. Riding a four-game winning streak into this contest, the Bears can get over the hump against their in-state foe in Waco for the first time since 1997.

Opening point spread: Baylor by 2

The pick: Baylor 34-24

Final: Baylor 48-24

6) Connecticut at Cincinnati
Sat., Dec. 3 — Noon ET, ESPN

The Huskies’ biggest fans are in Louisville this week. A Connecticut upset would send the 7-5 Cardinals to the BCS.

Cincinnati (8-3, 4-2 in Big East) could grab that golden ticket with a win if Thursday night features South Florida eliminating West Virginia (see below) from this ridiculous race for an undeserved spot in the BCS.

In theory, Connecticut (5-6, 3-3) benefits from the fact that Bearcat quarterback Zach Collaros is out with an injured ankle, but then again, it was Collaros who threw four interceptions to gift-wrap a 38-17 victory for the Huskies last year at Rentschler Field.

UConn certainly has been in a greedy mood as of late, coming up with six takeaways in last Saturday’s 40-22 victory over Rutgers. That puts a lot of pressure on backup quarterback Munchie Legaux, who is just a sophomore, and senior running back Isaiah Pead, who will have to carry much of the load.

Opening point spread: Cincinnati by 8 1/2

The pick: Cincinnati 27-26

Final: Cincinnati 35-27

7) No. 22 West Virginia at South Florida
Thurs., Dec. 1 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

How do you think B.J. Daniels felt while watching footage of West Virginia’s 21-20 victory over Pitt last week? The Mountaineers’ 10 quarterback sacks must have sparked some concern within the USF signalcaller who sat out last week’s game with an injured shoulder.

When West Virginia (8-3, 4-2 in Big East) really needed to make defensive plays, like during the Panthers’ final drive, it came up big, dropping Pitt QB Tino Sunseri four times.

However, South Florida (5-6, 1-5), which needs a win to become bowl eligible for the seventh consecutive year, might be the one putting the most pressure on the passer in this matchup.

The Mountaineers have just a shred of a running game and leave most of the heavy lifting to capable quarterback Geno Smith. That might not work out so well against a defense that’s averaging 3.6 sacks per game and can pin its ears back even more.

Opening point spread: Even

The pick: South Florida 26-24

Final: West Virginia 30-27

8) Ohio vs. Northern Illinois in MAC title game at Detroit
Fri., Dec. 2 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Both the Bobcats and Huskies are in high gear as they approach Detroit.

Ohio (9-3, 6-2 in MAC) has won its last five games after experiencing a mid-season slump. Northern Illinois (9-3, 7-1) is even hotter, having taken its last seven, following a 48-41 loss at Central Michigan to open league play on Oct. 1.

Each team has been receiving quality quarterbacking and can score. The difference between the two is apparent on the other side of the football.

The Huskie defense, which ranks 91st in total yards allowed and 94th in points allowed, has been particularly porous outside of DeKalb, surrendering nearly 40 points per game (60 at Toledo on Nov. 1). That doesn’t matchup well with a balanced Bobcat attack that averages 212 yards on the ground and 252 through the air.

Opening point spread: Northern Illinois by 4 1/2

The pick: Ohio 37-31

Final: Northern Illinois 23-20

9) No. 24 Southern Miss at No. 7 Houston in C-USA title game
Sat., Dec. 3 — Noon ET, ABC

While the Cougar offense and gunslinger Case Keenum have garnered all the attention this season, we were most impressed with the team’s defense in last week’s dominating 48-16 victory at Tulsa.

Houston (12-0, 8-0 in C-USA) hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its last four games. That’s deadly in combination with an offensive attack that averages nearly 53 points per game.

Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2) has won four of its six road games this season, but both of those losses were to teams without winning records (Marshall and UAB). That seems to suggest that the Golden Eagles won’t have nearly enough focus to stay with the rampaging Cougars.

Being within arms reach of a BCS berth adds a great deal of pressure to Houston. And UCLA’s interest in head coach Kevin Sumlin provides some unwanted distractions. But we’re going to ride with the Cougars … until January.

Opening point spread: Houston by 13

The pick: Houston 52-34

Final: Southern Miss 49-28

10) UCLA at No. 8 Oregon in Pac-12 title game
Fri., Dec. 2 — 8 p.m. ET, FOX

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i. Much like Chip Kelly, he’s taken on much tougher assignments this season. Blame Reggie Bush’s parents for this absolute dud of a “championship” game.

Rick Neuheisel would love nothing better than to send his Bruins to the Rose Bowl. (Notice we said “send,” not “take,” as the already fired coach won’t be allowed to stick around for that one if something on par with Chaminade over Virginia happens to occur.)

Expect UCLA (6-6, 5-4 in Pac-12) to come out with its pistol playbook wide open, hoping to catch Oregon (10-2, 8-1) off guard.

The Bruins, who didn’t get any last week at USC, will score a few points early. The Ducks will counter with an avalanche of touchdowns to put UCLA out of its misery and send Rick off rudely.

Oregon hosted UCLA last year and easily covered a similarly massive number with a 60-13 victory.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 29 1/2

The pick: Oregon 56-20

Final: Oregon 49-31

Week 14 record: 5-5
Total: 121-43

Alabama DL coach Bo Davis out after possible recruiting violation, report says

AUBURN, AL - NOVEMBER 28:  Jonathan Allen #93, Tim Williams #56 and Rashaan Evans #32 of the Alabama Crimson Tide react after a defensive stop against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Auburn, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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As some of his pupils move on to greener pastures this weekend, it appears Alabama defensive line coach Bo Davis is on his way out of Tuscaloosa as well.

Andrew Bone and Aaron Suttles of the Tuscaloosa News reported Thursday evening Davis is expected to resign or be fired after the school has opened an inquiry into possible violations on the recruiting trail. The nature of the violations was not revealed, but the NCAA has made “multiple” investigations into the matter and Alabama has opened its own corresponding inquiry.

Davis is a longtime Saban lieutenant, first working under him with the Miami Dolphins, then following him to Tuscaloosa as part of Saban’s original Alabama staff. Davis left for Texas in 2010 and spent a year at USC before returning to the Tide in 2014.

Alabama’s defensive line was nothing short of outstanding last season, providing the bedrock to Saban’s fourth national champion. The Tide led the nation with 52 sacks, ranked fifth with 108 tackles for loss and posted a national-best 75.73 yards per game rushing defense.

Davis’s contract runs through 2017 and pays him $475,000 annually.

 

Report: Conference USA football could return to ESPN this fall

HUNTINGTON, WV - DECEMBER 06: Remi Watson #8, Kevin Rodriguez #35, and Stefan Houston #3 of the Marshall Thundering Herd take the field before their game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Joan C. Edwards Stadium during the Conference USA championship game on December 6, 2014 in Huntington, West Virginia. The Thundering Herd defeated the Bulldogs 26-23. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
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It’s no secret that ESPN is the front door to the college sports world, and any league that doesn’t have a foothold on the Worldwide Leader faces a serious uphill climb for coverage. See: Conference USA.

C-USA currently splits its rights between Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports Network and the American Sports Network and, unless you happen to be a fan of one of the league’s 14 teams, you probably didn’t see a game before bowl season. But that could change soon.

The conference’s television deals expire at the end of June, and Harry Minium of the Virginian-Pilot reported ESPN has become a “late but serious bidder” for a portion of the C-USA package.

A change in partners would be well received by C-USA on two fronts. First, it’s ESPN. Second, the conference isn’t raking it in as is. Minium reported Old Dominion has planned for a drop in television revenue of $600,000 to $700,000 this fall — up from the originally anticipated fall of $500,000. And ODU only received $1 million last year to begin with. The drop can be attributed to the exodus of high-wattage programs — Houston, Memphis, East Carolina — to the AAC, allowing Fox and CBS to pay below the agreed amount. Exit fees had subsidized the loss in revenue, but those funds are running dry.

Conference USA declined to comment on the state of the negotiations, but five games have already been moved to weeknights — indicated back-channel negotiations are well under way.

That Old Dominion (and, presumably, other C-USA schools) could make only $300,000 on TV rights from an entire year is, in a word, shocking. In a world where the Big Ten could secure half a billion dollars over six years for half its package, this is a nice reminder that that world isn’t open to everyone.

LB Nick Holman makes ‘hard decision’ to transfer from USF

Nick Holman
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A little over a week after the end of spring practice, USF has seen its depth at linebacker take a bit of a hit.

Calling it “a hard decision,” Nick Holman took to Twitter Wednesday night to announce that he has decided to transfer out of the Bulls football program and “pursue other opportunities” elsewhere. The linebacker gave no specific reason for his decision to transfer.

Barring something unforeseen, Holman would be forced t sit out the 2016 season if he moves on to another FBS program. He’d then have two seasons of eligibility remaining beginning in 2017.

Holman came to USF as a three-star member of the Bulls’ 2014 recruiting class, rated as the No. 31 player at any position in the state of Alabama. After taking a redshirt as a true freshman, Holman played in 11 games in 2015.

The Tampa Bay Times wrote that “Holman led the White team with five tackles in the April 16 Green and White intrasquad game, and was listed as the backup to senior Nigel Harris at weakside linebacker on the post-spring depth chart.”

In statement, SEC reaffirms league to rescind its satellite camp ban

Auburn v Mississippi State
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The SEC had fought hard in pushing the NCAA’s Div. 1 Council to ban the practice of satellite camps, and then continued to push for The Association’s Board of Directors to reaffirm the ban.  In the end, though, that conference has taken the “if you can’t beat ’em join ’em” tack.

Shortly after the NCAA confirmed that its Board of Directors had, at least for the foreseeable future, rescinded the ban on coaches taking part in football camps outside of their regions, the SEC confirmed that it will be rescinding its own ban on the practice.  That rescinding follows through on the “threat” made last year by the conference that it would, essentially, unleash its football programs on the rest of the country if a ban wasn’t enacted.

The SEC’s lifting of the ban on such camps is not effective immediately; rather, it will take effect May 29.  After that date, as outgoing commissioner Mike Slive said in late May last year, “our folks will be free to fan out all over the country and have at it.”

In a statement, Slive’s replacement, Greg Sankey, lamented the lifting of the ban while at the same time reaffirmed that “SEC coaches will be allowed to engage in summer camps as a result of Conference legislation approved during the 2015 SEC Spring Meetings.”

Below is the entirety of Sankey’s statement.

While we are disappointed with the NCAA governance process result, we respect the Board of Directors’ decision and are confident SEC football programs will continue to be highly effective in their recruiting efforts.

“We continue to believe football recruiting is primarily an activity best-focused in high schools during the established recruiting calendar, which has provided opportunities for football prospective student-athletes from all across the country to obtain broad national access and exposure but with appropriate guidance from high school coaches, teachers and advisors that focuses on both their academic and athletic opportunities as they decide where they will play college football.