The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 14


Even if we drop every game here in “championship week” — and we might — it’ll still be a winning campaign. Every season starts with the goal to not get fired. Once again, here at the end, we’ve earned a contract extension.

Week 13 didn’t bring any bad luck, but it didn’t bring good luck either. We went 5-5 vs. “the number” and 6-4 straight-up.

After 154 games, we’re 86-62-3 (three games weren’t on the board) and 116-38 straight. Twenty-four units to the good ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how close we can get to 34 units up.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Dec. 1 thru Sat., Dec. 3)

1) No. 12 Georgia vs. No. 1 LSU in SEC title game at Atlanta
Sat., Dec. 3 — 4 p.m. ET, CBS

You can’t blame the Bulldogs for feeling disrespected. After posting a 31-17 victory at Georgia Tech last week to push its winning streak to 10 games, Georgia (10-2, 7-1 in SEC) dropped a spot in the BCS Standings to 14th.

Adding to the feeling of invisibility in Athens is this prevailing belief among the pundits that even if the Eastern Dawgs defeat the Western Tigers, top-ranked LSU (12-0, 8-0) will still qualify to the play for the BCS title.

Georgia’s plan is to show up and fight for that trip to the Sugar Bowl. Whether the Bulldogs are able to stand up to LSU’s relentless assault in all three phases of the game is another matter entirely.

While the Tigers have a defense with more potential and punch than the Indianapolis Colts, Georgia can present the appearance of stout unit statistically (10th in scoring defense, sixth in rushing defense, fifth in total defense and fourth in passing efficiency defense). However, those stats are largely built at the expense of the SEC’s also-rans, Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State.

Although 10 wins separate the Dawgs from the back-to-back losses that opened the season, we have to revisit those performances against Boise State and South Carolina because the Broncos and Gamecocks offer the best comparisons to the challenges presented by LSU’s offense.

After seeing how Arkansas’ passing attack got locked up by the Tiger secondary last week, it doesn’t seem likely that Bulldog quarterback Aaron Murray will be able to get things going versus the “Honey Badger” and his friends. Pass protection and ground support won’t be there either.

Opening point spread: LSU by 10

The pick: LSU 29-10

Final: LSU 42-10

2) No. 15 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Michigan State in Big Ten title game at Indianapolis
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8:17 p.m. ET, FOX

Throw that “Hail Mary” out the window and let’s consider this the overtime session that never started.

The Badgers certainly would be in favor of that, but then again they wouldn’t be able to play up the revenge angle.

We never really put much credence into that sort of thing. That’s good for talking up the game during the week and fans eat revenge up, but when the pads start cracking after the opening kickoff, all of that melts away.

Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2 in Big Ten) and Michigan State (10-2, 7-1) own the two best scoring defenses in the Big Ten, but each team was able to generate 31 points against one another before that last-second heave. More specifically, we’d like to point out that the Badgers seemed to be able to generate offense when they needed to in that last meeting, opening up a 14-0 lead early and coming back from a 31-17 deficit late.

While Russell Wilson and Montee Ball get the glory for that sort of production, it’s the excellent offensive line that makes it possible.

In addition, we have to question the Spartans’ effectiveness away from East Lansing. They surrendered 31 points in a loss at Notre Dame, scored only 10 at Ohio State and got dumped 24-3 at Nebraska. Even November victories at Iowa and Northwestern weren’t overwhelming.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 10

The pick: Wisconsin 31-24

Final: Wisconsin 42-39

3) No. 13 Oklahoma at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

We could go on and on about the leaky Sooner secondary. Or discuss the injuries to key offensive personel — wideout Ryan Broyles (knee), tailback Dominique Whaley (ankle), etc. But the fact of the matter is this: the Sooners have a heavy habit of coming out on top in Bedlam and playing in premier bowls.

Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1) has never won an outright Big 12 (or Big Eight) title or participated in the BCS. To do so this year, the Cowboys will have to beat Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2) for the first time since 2002.

This will be a shootout and as is always the case, maximizing possessions and staying away from turnovers will be the key. That gives the Cowboys a leg up as only top-ranked LSU owns a better turnover margin than they do.

In last season’s meeting, Sooner quarterback Landry Jones helped out the OSU cause by throwing three interceptions, but he also completed 37 passes to his teammates for 468 yards and four touchdowns, fueling a 47-41 victory, which also was in Stillwater.

This will be a similar shootout.

The underdog Sooners can snatch a share of the Big 12 title and, more importantly, a BCS berth with a win. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have to deal with the heavy pressure of not screwing up their big chance. Even a shot at the national championship is a possibility. It’s too much to think about and too much to handle.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 3

The pick: Oklahoma 38-35

Final: Oklahoma State 44-10

4) No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 21 Clemson in ACC title game at Charlotte, N.C.
Sat., Dec. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Perhaps the Tigers should be credited with getting the Hokies in gear.

On Oct. 1, Clemson (9-3, 6-2 in ACC) barged into Blacksburg and rolled out with a dominating 23-3 victory, holding Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1) without a touchdown at home for the first time since 1984.

After that game, the Hokies have been a different team, winning seven in row to earn this shot at their fourth league title within the past five seasons.

Massive 6-foot-6 quarterback Logan Thomas has led the revival. He threw for just 125 yards in the loss to Clemson, but has since accounted for 23 touchdowns (14 through the air and nine on the ground) during the seven-game winning streak.

The Tigers have been in a free-fall during the past month. Not only have they lost three of their last four games, the lone victory was a slim 31-28 decision over Wake Forest at home. That’s a far cry from the 8-0 start that had the nation talking.

Dabo Swinney’s young team — 29 freshmen have seen action this year — ran out of gas weeks ago. We don’t have much reason to believe that they’ll be able to recapture the midseason magic.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 6 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 31-17

Final: Clemson 38-10

5) Texas at No. 19 Baylor
Sat., Dec. 3 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the ever dependable P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Despite getting sidelined for the second half of the Bears’ 66-42 victory over Texas Tech last week, Robert Griffin III kept his Heisman candidacy alive by finding the end zone three times in the first 30 minutes, bringing his season TD total to 41.

In what could be the penultimate game of his collegiate career, the redshirt junior is one of four players in FBS history with more than 9,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing.

Texas (7-4, 4-4 in Big 12) got some extra time to shake any possible Thanksgiving Day hangover from defeating Texas A&M, 27-25, on a 40-yard field goal as time expired. But, sophomore quarterback Case McCoy (just 135 total yards last week) has so far done little to replicate the accomplishments of older brother Colt, so it’s difficult to envision the Longhorn offense keeping up with Baylor (8-3, 5-3), which is the nation’s only team averaging more than 300 yards through the air and 200 on the ground.

Respect must be given to a Texas defense that ranks ninth in the nation, allowing 298 yards per game, but they’ll be hard-pressed to hold down RG3 and an explosive Bear attack complemented by running back Terrance Ganaway and wide receiver Kendall Wright.

Baylor came into Austin on a three-game losing streak last year before defeating Texas for the first time in 13 tries. Riding a four-game winning streak into this contest, the Bears can get over the hump against their in-state foe in Waco for the first time since 1997.

Opening point spread: Baylor by 2

The pick: Baylor 34-24

Final: Baylor 48-24

6) Connecticut at Cincinnati
Sat., Dec. 3 — Noon ET, ESPN

The Huskies’ biggest fans are in Louisville this week. A Connecticut upset would send the 7-5 Cardinals to the BCS.

Cincinnati (8-3, 4-2 in Big East) could grab that golden ticket with a win if Thursday night features South Florida eliminating West Virginia (see below) from this ridiculous race for an undeserved spot in the BCS.

In theory, Connecticut (5-6, 3-3) benefits from the fact that Bearcat quarterback Zach Collaros is out with an injured ankle, but then again, it was Collaros who threw four interceptions to gift-wrap a 38-17 victory for the Huskies last year at Rentschler Field.

UConn certainly has been in a greedy mood as of late, coming up with six takeaways in last Saturday’s 40-22 victory over Rutgers. That puts a lot of pressure on backup quarterback Munchie Legaux, who is just a sophomore, and senior running back Isaiah Pead, who will have to carry much of the load.

Opening point spread: Cincinnati by 8 1/2

The pick: Cincinnati 27-26

Final: Cincinnati 35-27

7) No. 22 West Virginia at South Florida
Thurs., Dec. 1 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

How do you think B.J. Daniels felt while watching footage of West Virginia’s 21-20 victory over Pitt last week? The Mountaineers’ 10 quarterback sacks must have sparked some concern within the USF signalcaller who sat out last week’s game with an injured shoulder.

When West Virginia (8-3, 4-2 in Big East) really needed to make defensive plays, like during the Panthers’ final drive, it came up big, dropping Pitt QB Tino Sunseri four times.

However, South Florida (5-6, 1-5), which needs a win to become bowl eligible for the seventh consecutive year, might be the one putting the most pressure on the passer in this matchup.

The Mountaineers have just a shred of a running game and leave most of the heavy lifting to capable quarterback Geno Smith. That might not work out so well against a defense that’s averaging 3.6 sacks per game and can pin its ears back even more.

Opening point spread: Even

The pick: South Florida 26-24

Final: West Virginia 30-27

8) Ohio vs. Northern Illinois in MAC title game at Detroit
Fri., Dec. 2 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Both the Bobcats and Huskies are in high gear as they approach Detroit.

Ohio (9-3, 6-2 in MAC) has won its last five games after experiencing a mid-season slump. Northern Illinois (9-3, 7-1) is even hotter, having taken its last seven, following a 48-41 loss at Central Michigan to open league play on Oct. 1.

Each team has been receiving quality quarterbacking and can score. The difference between the two is apparent on the other side of the football.

The Huskie defense, which ranks 91st in total yards allowed and 94th in points allowed, has been particularly porous outside of DeKalb, surrendering nearly 40 points per game (60 at Toledo on Nov. 1). That doesn’t matchup well with a balanced Bobcat attack that averages 212 yards on the ground and 252 through the air.

Opening point spread: Northern Illinois by 4 1/2

The pick: Ohio 37-31

Final: Northern Illinois 23-20

9) No. 24 Southern Miss at No. 7 Houston in C-USA title game
Sat., Dec. 3 — Noon ET, ABC

While the Cougar offense and gunslinger Case Keenum have garnered all the attention this season, we were most impressed with the team’s defense in last week’s dominating 48-16 victory at Tulsa.

Houston (12-0, 8-0 in C-USA) hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its last four games. That’s deadly in combination with an offensive attack that averages nearly 53 points per game.

Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2) has won four of its six road games this season, but both of those losses were to teams without winning records (Marshall and UAB). That seems to suggest that the Golden Eagles won’t have nearly enough focus to stay with the rampaging Cougars.

Being within arms reach of a BCS berth adds a great deal of pressure to Houston. And UCLA’s interest in head coach Kevin Sumlin provides some unwanted distractions. But we’re going to ride with the Cougars … until January.

Opening point spread: Houston by 13

The pick: Houston 52-34

Final: Southern Miss 49-28

10) UCLA at No. 8 Oregon in Pac-12 title game
Fri., Dec. 2 — 8 p.m. ET, FOX

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i. Much like Chip Kelly, he’s taken on much tougher assignments this season. Blame Reggie Bush’s parents for this absolute dud of a “championship” game.

Rick Neuheisel would love nothing better than to send his Bruins to the Rose Bowl. (Notice we said “send,” not “take,” as the already fired coach won’t be allowed to stick around for that one if something on par with Chaminade over Virginia happens to occur.)

Expect UCLA (6-6, 5-4 in Pac-12) to come out with its pistol playbook wide open, hoping to catch Oregon (10-2, 8-1) off guard.

The Bruins, who didn’t get any last week at USC, will score a few points early. The Ducks will counter with an avalanche of touchdowns to put UCLA out of its misery and send Rick off rudely.

Oregon hosted UCLA last year and easily covered a similarly massive number with a 60-13 victory.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 29 1/2

The pick: Oregon 56-20

Final: Oregon 49-31

Week 14 record: 5-5
Total: 121-43

QB Thomas Sirk probable for Duke vs. Wake

DURHAM, NC - SEPTEMBER 19:  C.J. Robbins #90 of the Northwestern Wildcats tackles Thomas Sirk #1 of the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Wallace Wade Stadium on September 19, 2015 in Durham, North Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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In the midst of a four-game losing streak, it appears Duke will have its starting quarterback at its disposable in the final regular season attempt to end the skein –if that’s the direction the coaching staff wants to go, of course.

On Duke’s official injury report, Thomas Sirk is listed as probable for the Wake Forest game with an unspecified upper-body injury.  Sirk sustained the injury in the Week 10 loss to North Carolina and didn’t play in the loss to Pitt the following weekend.

He returned last Saturday for the loss to Virginia.

Not only is Sirk the Blue Devils’ leading passer, but he also leads the team in rushing with 593 yards on the ground.  Sirk is one of four Power Five quarterbacks who leads their team in rushing and passing, joining Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott and Oregon State’s Seth Collins.

Even as it has looked like Sirk will be healthy enough to go this weekend, head coach David Cutcliffe has declined to name a starter.  Parker Boehme is Sirk’s backup and started the Week 11 loss to Pitt.  In his first collegiate start, the sophomore completed 23-of-42 passes for 248 yards and an interception.

Wintry weather could have an impact on Bedlam

AMES, IA - OCTOBER 26: Head coach Mike Gundy of the Oklahoma State Cowboys signals a play from the sidelines during the second half of play against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium on October 26, 2013 in Ames, Iowa. The Oklahoma State Cowboys defeated the Iowa State Cyclones 58-27. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
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One of the most important games on the holiday docket this weekend is Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, with the Sooners looking to maintain their No. 3 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings and the Cowboys looking to get back into the playoff mix following their first loss of the season.

As it’s late November, though, Mother Nature may be looking to have a say in the outcome.

With Bedlam scheduled to kick off at 8 p.m. ET in Stillwater on Saturday, the weather forecast bears watching. “There is 40-percent chance for precipitation Saturday night and a low temperature around 30 degrees with the potential for rain or freezing rain,” the Oklahoman‘s Kyle Fredrickson wrote, citing National Weather Service data.

In the old days when playing surfaces were mainly grass, wet weather wreaked havoc on field. With the advent of advanced fake turf, that concern has been somewhat mitigated. At least, that’s what OSU’s offensive boss is telling himself.

“I think you have to have contingency plans based on the weather,” coordinator Mike Yurcich said. “But nowadays, you’re playing on the turf so it can’t be that bad. Back in the day when we were playing on grass, it would affect you because there would be mud on the ball and you would only use two balls in the game.”

OU, OSU and Baylor all currently have one Big 12 loss, with the latter having two regular season games remaining while Bedlam is the last for the in-state rivals. The Sooners would be declared the conference champion with a win this weekend — they would’ve beaten both the Bears and Cowboys — while the Bears stake their claim as the league champ with wins in the last two games (TCU, Texas) combined with a Sooners loss. Because of its loss to the Bears last weekend, the Cowboys can be Big 12 champs only if they beat the Sooners and the Bears lose at least one of their last two.

If OU can win Bedlam and hold the crown of Big 12 champ, they’ll have to wait another week to see if the playoff committee will keep them in the top four or, as was the case with TCU last year, they get bumped out in favor of teams that played in and won conference championship games while they sat at home.

Injury issues continue to plague Gators’ defensive line

during the game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 12, 2015 in Gainesville, Florida.
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Looking to put an embarrassing overtime win over two-win FAU in the rearview mirror, Florida is look at some significant defensive line issues heading into its annual in-state showdown with Florida State.

First and foremost on the injury report is Jon Bullard, who is listed as doubtful for Saturday night’s game against the Seminoles.  Bullard, who has been dealing with an arm issue the past couple of weeks, suffered a knee injury on the first possession of the FAU game.  While the defensive tackle returned to that game, he’s been limited in practice this week leading to his doubtful designation.

Bullard’s 13.5 tackles for loss are tops on the team and fourth in the SEC.  He has started 33 games during his Gator career, including a streak of 23 straight.

In addition to Bullard’s injury issue, defensive ends Alex McCalister (foot) and defensive tackle Taven Bryan (ankle) are also listed as doubtful as well. McCalister currently leads the Gators in sacks with 6.5, one more than Bullard’s 5.5.

But wait, there’s more: three other defensive linemen are listed as questionable — Joey Ivie (knee), Jordan Sherit (hamstring) and Thomas Holley (hip).

Chris Petersen gets two-year extension from Washington

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 26: Washington Huskies head coach Chris Petersen celebrates a goal line stand against the California Golden Bears during the first half of a college football game at Husky Stadium on September 25, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. California went on to win 30-24. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)  *** Local Caption *** Chris Petersen
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Still needing another win to secure bowl eligibility, Chris Petersen has been rewarded by his Washington bosses for the work he’s done with the Huskies thus far.

First reported by‘s Pete Thamel and subsequently confirmed by‘s Joe Schad, Petersen has signed a two-year contract extension with UW.  The new deal would keep Petersen with the Huskies through the 2020 season.

Thamel adds that Petersen will earn $4 million in the extension years of 2019 and 2020; in 2015, Petersen earned $3.4 million.  Petersen had already been scheduled to earn $4 million in 2018 under the terms of his original five-year deal.

Following an eight-year tenure at Boise State in which the Broncos won 88 percent of their games, Petersen left to take over the Huskies for the 2014 season after Steve Sarkisian exited for the USC job.  In his first season, Petersen went 8-5 and ended the year with a Cactus Bowl loss.  This season, the Huskies are 5-6 and need a win over No. 20 Washington State this weekend to extend their bowl streak to six straight seasons.

In Petersen’s first seven seasons as a head coach, he went 84-8; in his last three seasons, he’s gone a combined 21-16 — 8-4 in his last season in Boise, 13-12 in his first two years at UW.

UPDATED 12:04 p.m. ET: Within a minute of this being posted, UW sent out a press release confirming that Petersen has indeed agreed to a contract extension.

“Coach Petersen has demonstrated tremendous integrity and is building a program that Husky fans can be proud of, both on and off the field,” athletic director Scott Woodward said in a statement. “This extension is well-deserved and we hope Coach Petersen is a Husky for a long time to come.”