Predictions 101 — Week 1

AP

Here we go!

It’s been 33 long weeks without college football games to keep us occupied and the offseason was generally one that we’d like to forget.

Thankfully, the best season in sports is finally upon us and we’re digging right in.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thur. Aug. 30 thru Mon., Sept. 3)

1) No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 2 Alabama at Arlington, Texas
Sat., 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Thanks to Brady Hoke, Michigan got back to being Michigan last year, but three starting defensive linemen are not back this season. That doesn’t bode well for the Wolverines in this matchup versus the defending BCS champs.

Led by Outland Trophy winner Barrett Jones and three other returning starters, the Crimson Tide offensive line is the best in the country and it’s looking for more ways to prove it.

Alabama averaged 5.5 yards per rush last season, but the offense generated just 13 plays that went for 40 or more yards. Nick Saban is looking for new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier to add more explosiveness to the passing game led by junior quarterback A.J. McCarron.

Michigan’s offense suffers from no such lack of explosiveness. Senior quarterback Denard Robinson is a powder keg and has been a particularly strong performer out of the gate in September. However, opening against Alabama is a different ballgame.

Someone with a penchant for throwing interceptions might be in for a long night against a Crimson Tide defense that shouldn’t fall off much from last year’s showing that saw it allow only 3.3 yards per play and permit third-down conversions at a stingy rate of 24.5 percent.

Michigan’s corresponding numbers from last season were 5.2 and 36.4 percent. Take nothing away from Wolverine defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who did a masterful job last season, bringing Michigan’s defense out from the muck, but this is too tough a task.

Trent Richardson is gone and his replacement, Eddie Lacy, is nursing knee and ankle sprains, but that doesn’t mean the Tide will be searching for answers at running back. If Lacy is limited or ineffective, expect to see true freshman T.J. Yeldon show his considerable stuff.

Opening point spread: Alabama -11

The pick: Alabama 26-19

2) No. 24 Boise State at No. 13 Michigan State
Fri., 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

This will be the fourth consecutive time that the Broncos open the season against a ranked foe from a BCS automatic qualifying conference. Oregon, Virginia Tech and Georgia were each previously victimized. However, this is a bit different because it’s the first of the four played on the opponent’s home field … and the first played without Kellen Moore available to take snaps.

Thankfully for Boise State, both teams are starting new quarterback eras. Like Moore, Michigan State hero Kirk Cousins will be remembered for a long time at his alma mater.

Quarterback Joe Southwick won’t be the only new starter for the Broncos. Most of the skill positions around him will be manned by newcomers, as well as all but two spots on defense. Wow.

We keep hearing that Boise State has become one of these schools that reloads instead of rebuilds. Amazing.

Chris Petersen is indeed a miracle worker, but rolling into East Lansing where the Spartans have eight starters returning from a defense that allowed less than 280 yards and 19 points per game is a mighty tough task with a new signalcaller.

After this trip, the Broncos likely will fall out of the AP Top 25 for the first time since September of 2008. That’s nothing to mourn … rather something to marvel.

Opening point spread: Michigan State by 7 1/2

The pick: Michigan State 31-20

3) No. 14 Clemson vs. Auburn at Atlanta
Sat., 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The last time we saw Clemson, the Tigers were being humiliated by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.

Reportedly Brent Venables, who came over from Oklahoma to be Clemson’s new defensive coordinator, hasn’t watched all the footage of that 70-33 debacle. We wouldn’t either. It would not only be depressing, but also barely relevant as he reworks what remains from that unit into his favored 4-3 alignment.

Similarly, the last time these two Tigers were on the same field a year ago, the ones representing Auburn surrendered 624 yards of total offense on their way to a 38-24 defeat that snapped a 17-game winning streak. At one point, Auburn inexplicably allowed Clemson to convert on 10 consecutive third-down attempts. Ouch.

Unlike Venables’ situation, that tape is something new Auburn defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder needs to take a long look at.

With Gene Chizik recently announcing that sophomore Kiehl Frazier will start at quarterback, the Auburn defense might need to hold Clemson under 19 points to win the ballgame. The future is bright for the young dual-threat signalcaller, but we aren’t sure how he’ll perform on such a big stage this early in the season. He’ll also be working with a new coordinator (Scot Loeffler, who takes over for Gus Malzahn) and without suspended starting center Reese Dismukes.

Even though suspended wideout Sammy Watkins isn’t available to lean on, we’ve got more confidence in Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd, who was 30-of-42 for 386 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s matchup. And tailback Andre Ellington and receiver DeAndre Hopkins are ready to roll for the defending ACC champs.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 7 1/2

The pick: Clemson 27-19

4) Georgia Tech at No. 16 Virginia Tech
Mon., 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

There’s lots of hype around jumbo quarterback Logan Thomas being the “next Cam Newton.” He has the size and some of the tools, but we just need to see if his young supporting cast compliments him well enough to get the job done each week.

Thankfully, the Hokie offense won’t be overly pressed to produce since the Virginia Tech defense, which has a host of experience at every level, will keep the majority of its opponents significantly under wraps.

Last year, the Hokies put the clamps on the Yellow Jackets in the fourth quarter of a 37-26 victory in Atlanta.

With Georgia Tech severely inexperienced at the receiving positions, it’s hard to picture the Ramblin’ Wreck keeping pace in this crucial Coastal Division showdown in Blacksburg.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 7 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 27-17

5) No. 9 South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Thurs., 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Gamecocks surpassed all expectations last year, winning a school-record 11 games. What’s even more amazing is that they played nearly half the season with All-Everything tailback Marcus Lattimore on the sidelines.

With his recovery from knee surgery complete and Connor Shaw solidified at quarterback (if back spasms don’t get in the way), South Carolina is dreaming big.

Vanderbilt, however, doesn’t give a hoot about all this and there is some danger looming in Nashville as second-year head coach James Franklin has the Commodores feeling good about notching back-to-back bowl seasons.

Of course, good times in the opener will last only as long as quarterback Jordan Rodgers (Aaron’s little brother) remains upright while facing South Carolina’s skyscraper defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney (6-6) and Devin Taylor (6-8).

Remember how poorly the Gamecocks played in last season’s lid-lifter against East Carolina?

This will be tight.

Opening point spread: South Carolina by 8

The pick: South Carolina 24-23

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

Notre Dame vs. Navy at Dublin, Ireland
Sat., 9 a.m. ET, CBS

How could we pass up the longest continuous intersectional rivalry in college football? And this time it’s a season opener in Ireland!

Newly named starting quarterback Everett Golson has that electric quality to him, but he also won the confidence of Brian Kelly by displaying good decision making in practice. According to Kelly, he was intercepted just one time in his first 126 attempts of fall camp.

Following that sort of trend was the bright side of the offseason for Kelly, who spent (and continues to spend) considerable time getting tough with his misbehaving players.

Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo has been laying down the law regarding another kind of toughness, the physical kind. He and his Midshipmen feel that’s what was missing as they slipped to a 5-7 mark last season and missed out on a bowl game for the first time in eight years.

Navy has only 11 returning starters and is particularly inexperienced in both trenches. After losing its entire starting defensive front, it’s frightening to think of how punchless the Midshipmen pass rush will be after barely generating any penetration and pressure a year ago.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 14

The pick: Notre Dame 28-16

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

Washington State at BYU
Thurs., 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

We like Mike Leach. We admit it. We don’t like pirates. We don’t like Pullman. But we like Leach. And, guess what, his act and attack is going to work up in the Palouse.

Like the oddsmakers, we realize that Wazzu has no business waltzing into Provo thinking that they’ve got this won. But once the bullets start flying, BYU will know that it’s in for a 60-minute shootout against Leach and his senior triggerman Jeff Tuel.

Of course, BYU quarterback Riley Nelson, a seventh-year senior, is capable of grabbing a hold of the game and not letting go, especially against Washington State’s limp defense, but at least the experienced Cougar secondary has been there before against similar attacks.

Maybe it’s not a moneyline play, but there’s a lot to like.

Opening point spread: BYU by 12 1/2

The pick: Washington State 31-30

2011 regular season record: 121-43
2011 bowl record: 20-15

AP

Houston may have lost its leading rusher from the 2012 season to transfer, but the Cougars are apparently bringing in a player on the other side of the ball with the potential to start.

Lee Hightower announced on his Tumblr account that he will be transferring to Houston and will play for the Cougars.  The move comes after the defensive back had visited the school last weekend.

“Really dope city and school and I’ll be here for the next 3 years,” Hightower wrote.

Hightower was indefinitely suspended in early February for violating unspecified team rules and subsequently released by Boise State head coach Chris Petersen.  It was Hightower’s second suspension in less than four months.

The initial suspension came after Hightower had started the first seven games of the 2012 season at strong safety.  He did not play again last season.

Hightower becomes the second Broncos transfer to land at an FBS program in Texas this week.  Defensive lineman Sam Ukwuachu, dismissed earlier this month, announced that he will be enrolling at Baylor.

(Tip O’ the Cap: Idaho Statesman)

The mini-deluge of departures continues Thursday afternoon, with Michigan State the latest to see its football roster thinned.

In a press release, the Spartans announced that wide receiver Juwan Caesar has asked for and been granted a release from his MSU scholarship.  There’s no word on where the Miami, Fla., native may transfer.

A three-star member of the Spartans’ 2011 recruiting class, Caesar was rated as the No. 67 receiver in the country and the No. 77 player in the state of Florida.

Caesar’s true freshman season was derailed by a foot injury and he took a redshirt.  He did not play as a redshirt freshman in 2012, and was moved to tight end during bowl practices.

(Photo credit: Michigan State athletics)

AP

Following up on Steven Bench‘s self-reporting earlier today, USF has confirmed the addition of a new player to its football program.

The Bulls announced via a press release that the quarterback is indeed transferring to the school.  Bench announced late last month that he would be transferring from Penn State, and USF has been considered one of the front-runners to land the Cairo, Ga., product.

“We’re definitely excited that Steven decided to join the USF family,” head coach Willie Taggart said in a statement. “He is a coach’s son, who brings a lot of toughness to the game. His addition will also elevate the competition at quarterback, which will be good for all the players at the position. We’re looking forward to his arrival on campus so he can start working out with the guys, while getting acclimated to the way we do things.”

The release further noted that Bench is allowed to play in 2013 due to the Nittany Lions’ NCAA sanctions and will have three years of eligibility remaining.

Bench, a three-star member of the Nittany Lions’ 2012 recruiting class, told Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times that one of the biggest reasons for opting for the Bulls was that the coaching staff made it clear they not only “needed a quarterback, but they made me feel like they needed me to be their quarterback, and that goes a long way.”

AP

Some links from around college football on a Thursday…

• Matt Hayes of the Sporting News does think there’s inequality in the SEC’s scheduling model… and that Alabama is benefitting.
• Arizona State head coach Todd Graham has close ties to Oklahoma as well. Naturally, he was worried when Monday’s events unfolded.
• Toledo is also looking into selling beer and wine at football games.
• Rarely-used defensive end Ricardo Williams and receiver Robert Lockhart are no longer at Miami.
• Checking in with Tulane safety Devon Walker as he faces life with paralysis. An outstanding update from Yahoo! Sports.
• Former Rutgers quarterback Ryan Hart can pursue a lawsuit against EA Sports after winning an appeal in federal court. Similar to the O’Bannon lawsuit.
• Former Alabama athletic director Mal Moore was posthumously named Athletic Director of the Year by the Sports Business Daily.

AP

Nearly a month to the day it was announced that he would be transferring from Penn State, Steven Bench has found a new home to continue his playing career.

On his Twitter account Thursday morning, the quarterback revealed that he has “decided to attend the University of South Florida and become a [B]ull!!”  USF was one of a handful of schools that Bench had considered since leaving the Nittany Lions last month.

The Bulls have not yet officially announced Bench’s addition to the football program.

As has been previously noted, Bench will be eligible to play immediately in 2013 because of Penn State’s NCAA sanctions.  He will have three years of eligibility remaining plus a redshirt season.

Along with the Bulls, Bench had also visited Mississippi State and North Carolina State. Both FIU and Temple were reportedly in the mix at some level.

As a true freshman last season, Bench appeared in two games and attempted seven passes.

AP

‘Tis the season for transfers, apparently.

Following up on some hints from Kansas coach Charlie Weis on Wednesday, Kansas announced that evening that former Miami (OH) wide receiver Nick Harwell would be joining the program. Harwell was dismissed from the school last week by the dean’s office following an arrest in March that also resulted in his suspension from spring practices. As a result, he was no longer considered part of the football team.

Harwell pleaded guilty to one count of attempted theft on May 9 and was sentenced to 90 days in jail with 89 days suspended for the incident.

Despite his off-the-field issue, Harwell was an extremely productive receiver for the RedHawks. He led the team in receiving yards (870) and touchdowns (eight), and finished second in receptions (68) — all while missing three games with injuries. Harwell was also the NCAA’s second-leading receiver in 2011 with 129.6 receiving yards per game, finishing his sophomore campaign with 97 receptions for 1,425 yards and nine touchdowns.

Harwell leaves Miami as the school’s second all-time leading receiver in career receptions (229) and yards (3,166), as well as third in receiving touchdowns (23).

It’s not clear if Harwell will be eligible to play right away for the Jayhawks, but Weis has stated he’s looking for players who can make an immediate impact (much of KU’s 2013 signing class was made up of JUCO players).

And keep in mind that no Kansas wide receiver caught a touchdown last year.

AP

Though Aaron Murray will be looking to the likes of Arthur Lynch and Jay Rome to make plays at the tight end position, Georgia’s depth at that spot has taken a bit of a hit.

The school confirmed Wednesday that sophomore  Ty Flournoy-Smith was transferring from the program. It’s not exactly certain where he’ll go, but it appears the JUCO route is the early favorite. Bulldogs coach Mark Richt even said there’s a possibility Smith could return to the team at a later point.

Smith had some off-the-field trouble this past February when he was arrested for falsely reporting a crime. Smith claimed his textbooks were stolen, whereas police found out he tried to sell them back to the bookstore.

Smith played in eight games last season, but did not record a reception.

(Hat tip: Athens Banner-Herald) 

AP

In January, Houston running back Charles Sims announced he would bypass the NFL draft and return for his senior season with the Cougars. Now it appears that plan may not be in the cards for Sims.

According to Rob Sellers of CougarsDen.com (giggity), Sims is leaving the program, though exactly why isn’t clear. In a release from the school a short time later, UH said Sims was simply weighing his future options. One thing the release made clear was that Sims has not asked for his release, something he’d have to do if he wished to transfer. Sims has already graduated from Houston and would be eligible to play immediately if he decided that was the route he wanted to go.

“We congratulate Charles on receiving his degree last week and becoming a Cougar for life,” coach Tony Levine said in a statement, adding Sims “has been a leader for our program both on and off field with number of accomplishments.”

Another option for Sims could be the NFL’s supplemental draft in June. Obviously, this is all a bit out of the blue considering he’s just months removed from electing to return to UH for another year.

Wherever he ends up, some team, whether at the college or pro level, is getting an excellent running back. Sims was a first-team All Conference USA selection in 2011 and a second-team selection last season. Despite nagging injuries, he still finished 2012 with 851 yards rushing and six yards per carry — still good enough to lead the team. He’s also a noted pass-catcher and can be a versatile weapon for any offense.

Updated 9:15 p.m. ET: In a statement released to CougarsDen.com, Sims confirmed he is departing Houston. As you’ll read below, what the running back’s future holds still remains unclear.

“It is with regret and deep humbling, that I am ending my playing career at the University of Houston. I have a lot of great memories that I will carry with me forever. I want to thank the University of Houston for allowing the opportunity to be a part of its football program.

I have worked extremely hard while I have been here at U of H and made every attempt to carry myself in a manner that would reflect the utmost integrity upon the school and this program.

I don’t know what my next step will be. I have one more year of eligibility, therefore I may look to play (1) more year of college football or I may enter the NFL Supplemental Draft later this year.

My family and I will continue to discuss my options and we will make a decision in the near future.”

AP

Nevada coach and Pistol offense innovator Chris Ault stepped down as the Wolf Pack’s head coach last December after nearly three decades of service. Less than six months later, he’s getting a well-deserved honor.

In a Wednesday press conference, Nevada-Reno president Marc Johnson announced that the field at the university’s Mackay Stadium would bear Ault’s name going forward. So, officially, it’s now Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium.

“I was always blessed at this University but my biggest blessing was always my family,” Ault said at the presser. “Though there is only one name on the field, I’m hoping it reflects a University and community that supported us, and players and coaches who did so much for our program. This is not about one person.”

Sure, but there’s no denying Ault is synonymous with Nevada football. Ault had three separate stints as Nevada’s coach — 1976-92, 1994-95 and 2004-present.  He was also the school’s athletic director from 1986-2004, guiding the Nevada football program from the Div. II level to Div. I-AA to the FBS level (then-Div. I-A) in 1992.

In all, Ault spent 41 of the past 48 years at his alma mater as a player, coach and/or administrator. His final record over his coaching career was 233-109-1.

Ault was hired earlier this month by the Kansas City Chiefs as a consultant, demonstrating just how far his influence with the Pistol has gone.

Getty Images

Oregon reportedly met with the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions last month — perhaps around April 19th or 20th — over alleged recruiting violations dating back to 2008 in the Chip Kelly era. The hearing was a result of the university’s bid for a summary disposition with the NCAA falling through late last year.

According to documents obtained by the Eugene Register-Guard, UO received a Notice of Allegations from the NCAA on Dec. 5, 2012. The NOA lists seven specific allegations of wrongdoing under Kelly, who became the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles toward the beginning of this year, that, per the paper, ”closely resemble — almost to the word — the allegations listed in Oregon’s failed attempt at a summary disposition…” Said to be included in those allegations is a failure to monitor charge that may include Kelly.

Additionally, the NOA states Oregon could be subject to penalties under the repeat violator rule because alleged recruiting misconduct involving J.J. Arrington in 2004. If Oregon is considered a repeat violator by the NCAA — a major violation would have to occur within five years of another major violation — it would shed light on why the summary disposition failed last year.

From the Oregonian on March 8, 2012:

In its online glossary of terms, the NCAA defines summary disposition as “a cooperative process between the school, involved individuals and the NCAA enforcement staff.”

It continues, explaining how an in-person hearing in front of the Committee on Infractions can be avoided. But then, in bold print, is the kicker:

“A school that would become a repeat-violator cannot use the summary disposition process and must go before the Committee on Infractions.”

In April, multiple outlets reported that Oregon and the NCAA previously “agreed” that major violations occurred in the use of recruiting services. However, the NCAA’s enforcement staff noted in the documents that there was “no finding of lack of institutional control and no finding of unethical conduct.” Because Oregon’s attempt at a summary disposition ultimately failed, the findings in the documents weren’t necessarily binding.

In March of 2011, Yahoo! Sports and ESPN.com published reports that called into question the financial relationship between Oregon and a pair of so-called recruiting services.  One of those services was Complete Scouting Services and its owner Willie Lyles. Among the items of interest in the business relationship between UO and Lyles stems from a “2011 National Package” sold to the Ducks in 2010 at a price of $25,000 that contained no recruits that would make up the following year’s class. Impermissible phone calls and too many coaches on the recruiting trail are among the other allegations said to be facing the program.

Oregon has proposed a two-year probation period and a reduction of one scholarship for each of the next three seasons as a result of the alleged violations. The COI can add additional sanctions to the program, at which time UO can either accept the them or appeal. The university’s policy regarding the ongoing case, as it has been along, has been that of “no comment.”

Getty Images

Some links from around college football on a Wednesday… 

• Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated projects the major conference bowl lineups starting in 2014.
• Renovations to San Jose State’s football stadium were approved on Tuesday.
• As he does every year, Bruce Feldman ranks his top-20 freaks in college football. Take a crack at who you think is No. 1.
• Oh my. Florida State’s Orange Bowl rings are very cool.
• Paul Finebaum is set to reappear on ESPN. The Wall Street Journal has the details.
• Michigan footballs: Made in the USA, not in Ohio.
• The AAC (formerly the Big East) has been looking into creating a new bowl game for a while, but that game could be held at Marlins Park in Miami.

AP

Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater ended the 2012-13 season as one of the early preseason Heisman favorites for the upcoming year. Whether he makes it to New York next December remains to be seen, but if he does, the junior doesn’t want any help from the school.

Per WDRB.com, Bridgewater asked his coaches for no Heisman campaign from the program.

“He went to the coaches not wanting a Heisman-type campaign,” UL SID Rocco Gasparro said. “He wanted it to be about team and if we won as a team individual recognition would come anyway. It says a lot about the character of Teddy, I think, and how much his team means to him.”

If nothing else, it’s a departure from his tone toward the Heisman last month. When asked in April if he would mind the school putting on a Heisman campaign for him, Bridgewater said ”Not at all. It’s something that I’ve been training for my whole life to be in these shoes, and at this stage, I don’t see anything wrong with it.”

That’s because there isn’t, but if Bridgewater really is more focused on the bigger picture, good on him. If he — if Louisville — has a great year with the more than manageable schedule the Cardinals face, he’ll probably be in New York either way.

AP

Given the boot from Boise State earlier this month for violating team rules, defensive lineman Sam Ukwuachu says he’s found his transfer destination. And it’s back in his home state of Texas.

Speaking to Sic’EmSports.com, Ukwuachu says it’s a “done deal” that he will transfer to Baylor early next month. The redshirt freshman recently visited Waco and chose the Bears over Florida and Utah. Baylor cannot comment on the news until Ukwuachu officially enrolls.

“Baylor was my best option. It’s close to home. It’s a good program. [Boise St. Chris Petersen] really helped me to where I wanted to go. Things just didn’t work out up there,” Ukwuachu told the site, adding that while he was reportedly dismissed from the team, he and Petersen came to a mutual understanding that it was best to part ways. Ukwuachu also missed Boise’s spring practice because of what Petersen called “personal things.”

Ukwuachu played in all 13 games for the Broncos last season, including 12 starts. He was named a Freshman All-American by the Football Writers Association of America.

Barring a special waiver, Ukwuachu will have to sit out a season to satisfy NCAA transfer rules.

AP

Like many of you, I’m sure, I was glued to the television yesterday watching as a horrifying tornado ripped through central Oklahoma.

While Monday’s events are separate from football, there is a football angle. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops and his family live just south of Moore, OK, a town unfortunately hit hard by yesterday’s storm. Stoops said his family could see the tornado through their back window; he was working at OU’s football offices at the time.

“It crossed over just north of us and just about a mile from our home,” said Stoops.

To his knowledge, no player was directly affected by yesterday’s tornado. However, two assistant OU coaches, a grad assistant and strength coach, lost their homes.

We’re glad Stoops, his family, and the entire OU family, are safe. And certainly our thoughts go out to those who were not so lucky.

(Hat tip: the Oklahoman) 

AP

What do coaches always say to quarterbacks? You better be able to make all the throws in your playbook blindfolded?

Johnny Manziel says “challenge accepted.”

Known more for his improv ability, the Heisman Trophy winner showed off his throwing accuracy as well during a “Zorro drill” while training with quarterback guru George Whitfield Jr. Blindfolded, Manziel tossed just two uncatchable balls out of 29 attempts. Not too shabby.

“I have always said he has the best antenna in football,” Whitfield said. “I think he just proved that.”

And if anyone needs anymore proof, here’s a video of one of the passes.

It might not be on the level of a trick shot video, but it’s impressive nevertheless.

(Hat tip: Fort Worth Star-Telegram)