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Predictions 101 — Week 4

Pick 6 Football AP

If we were Lane Kiffin, we’d blame the players, injuries or even the media. But alas we aren’t the faultless USC head coach, and we’ll accept responsibility for last week’s 2-5 record (both straight up and vs. “the number”).

Speaking of Kiffin, we had a bead on his Trojans faltering at Stanford, but ultimately didn’t have enough guts to call for the full-scale upset. There’s no glory in predicting that the Trojans won’t cover. That’s a weekly certainty. But when we only land a pair, we cherish it.

Last week’s official upset call (Virginia over Georgia Tech) spectacularly went up in flames. The home office in Burbank, which currently handles the value-laden longshots, promises to do better this time around. With the extra assistance, those should most always get you across the line in good shape.

It’s a good slate of “ranked vs. ranked” this week, hopefully we can rise to the occasion.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thursday, Sept. 20, thru Saturday, Sept. 22)

1) No. 10 Clemson at No. 4 Florida State
Sat., Sept. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The Seminole defense is allowing a single point per game. When an elite program opens against Murray State and Savannah State that sort of stonewalling is not a shock. But, last week’s 52-0 rout of Wake Forest, a team that had taken four of the last six meetings, was a bit of a surprise and signals that Florida State is definitely for real.

With upset alerts and full-blown stunners littering the college football landscape each week, there’s something to be said for a team that goes about its undefeated business to the tune of 176-3.

This defensive display isn’t anything entirely new. The Seminoles now have held 11 consecutive opponents to 19 points or less.

Perhaps it’s both good and bad news for the Tigers that FSU’s under-20 streak began after back-to-back 35-30 losses on the road at Clemson and Wake Forest last year.

The biggest threat to the Seminole end zone is Tiger wideout Sammy Watkins, who warmed up in a 41-7 victory over Furman after serving a two-game suspension. Last season, Watkins caught seven passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns versus Florida State.

Fourth and fifth on Jimbo Fisher’s list of worries — Tajh Boyd and Andre Ellington are second and third — are pass protection and short-yardage rushing efficiency. Both stem from uncertainties along an offensive line that allowed the Demon Deacons to sack quarterback E.J. Manuel three times.

Coach Corso will be right to back his alma mater by putting on a headdress out in the parking lot, but it’ll be “closer than the experts think.”

Opening point spread: Florida State by 13

The pick: Florida State 26-24

2) No. 18 Michigan at No. 11 Notre Dame
Sat., Sept. 22 — 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i.

For the Fighting Irish to do something that hasn’t happened since 2008 — beat the Wolverines — they must do what seems nearly impossible to them, bottle up Denard Robinson.

Off to its best start in a decade, Notre Dame is thinking BCS, even though it hasn’t lit up the scoreboard. What has been impressive is a defense led by linebacker Manti Te’o, who had 12 tackles in last week’s 20-3 signature win at Michigan State while grieving the loss of his grandmother and girlfriend.

In this game, the Irish defense, which is allowing only 10 points a game, would like to avoid last season’s fourth-quarter meltdown that saw Michigan score 28 points and cash in the game winner with just two seconds left.

Against Alabama in the opener, we saw what a disciplined talented defense can do to the Wolverine offense. Now, Notre Dame is not Alabama, but the Irish aren’t slouches either, ranking 18th in total defense, 8th in scoring, 11th in turnover margin and 10th in sacks.

The Irish are capable of forcing Robinson to throw it. We know Notre Dame losing safety Jamoris Slaughter to a season-ending Achilles injury hampers an already inexperienced backfield, but Te’o and the rest of the front seven can get Michigan into third-and-long situations, create takeaways and keep Robinson’s shoelaces in the pocket.

Making the Wolverines try to win through the air will land another huge W for the Irish.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 3 1/2

The pick: Notre Dame 31-16

3) No. 22 Arizona at No. 3 Oregon
Sat., Sept. 22 — 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Ducks and Cats combined for 87 points in last year’s matchup, a 56-31 Oregon victory in Tucson. This season, with Rich Rodriguez now in the saddle at Arizona, both teams are averaging roughly 600 yards in total offense. With all of that being the case, the only upset here is that the over/under opened at merely 75 points in this high-powered heavyweight battle of read-option offenses.

Both attacks are triggered by new starters. Duck redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota is completing 75.5 percent of his passes, which is just a shade better than his senior counterpart Matt Scott, who is connecting at a 71.5 percent clip. The fight for efficiency supremacy should be entertaining.

We won’t put a whole lot of weight on Arizona’s 56-0 whipping of South Carolina State last week, but you have to hand it to the Wildcats for not thinking that they deserved the weekend off after their impressive 59-38 victory over Oklahoma State. The UofA spread worked its way to 43 first downs.

Oregon also had its way with an overmatched opponent last week, but the Ducks’ 12 penalties and three turnovers in a routine 63-14 victory over Tennessee Tech showed a lack of focus.

Last year, in their first conference game on the road, the Wildcats went to Los Angeles and pushed USC to brink before falling, 48-41. They’ve got it in them to bear down once again and they’re new & improved. But Chip Kelly has taken Rodriguez’ offense to such an incredible place that it’s hard to imagine him slipping up at Autzen Stadium … or anywhere.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 26 1/2

The pick: Oregon 52-35

4) No. 15 Kansas State at No. 6 Oklahoma
Sat., Sept. 22 — 7:50 p.m. ET, FOX

The chasm between these two teams was massive last year. On their way to a 58-17 victory, the visiting Sooners rolled up 690 yards of total offense, including 520 through the air. Although the Wildcats did hold a lead in the second quarter, they weren’t really heard from offensively, totaling just 240 yards.

This has been somewhat of a habit for Oklahoma, which has taken the last five in the series and eight of the last nine.

In his previous two games versus the Wildcats, Sooner quarterback Landry Jones passed for 799 yards and nine touchdowns, without being sacked a single time. Kansas State appears to be gearing up to change that, having registered eight sacks in their last two games, led by defensive end Adam Davis.

Conversely, the Sooner defensive line will focus on stopping a KSU rushing attack that is averaging 252 yards per game. When Oklahoma cuts off running back John Hubert and quarterback Collin Klein on the ground, and forces Klein to the air, it’ll be another long day for the Wildcats.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 17

The pick: Oklahoma 41-21

5) No. 2 LSU at Auburn
Sat., Sept. 22 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

If we were ever going to have a SEC-less week here at P101 this would have been it. But this matchup featuring recent BCS champs snuck in just under the wire.

There’s not much to report though. Auburn finally putting up a tally in the win column with last week’s overtime decision over Louisiana-Monroe didn’t do anything but further confirm the fact that these two Tigers are headed in opposite directions.

LSU is working on a 16-game regular-season winning streak, while Auburn is hoping to avoid its first 1-3 start since 1998.

A few more starters would have to join injured running back Alfred Blue on the sidelines before we’d even begin considering Auburn’s ability to break its five-game losing streak versus ranked opposition, which includes last year’s 45-10 faceplant in Death Valley.

Opening point spread: LSU by 18 1/2

The pick: LSU 37-14

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

Fresno State at Tulsa
Sat., Sept. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

Pat Hill is gone, but his schedule loaded with trips to top notch programs remains. This Tulsa squad, however, isn’t as good as in years past and is surely several steps down from what the Bulldogs faced at Oregon in a 42-25 defeat two weeks ago.

After easy wins over Tulane and Nicholls State, the Golden Hurricane’s three-game homestand is capped by this tough test against a squad that was on pace to hit the century mark against hapless Colorado last week before the dogs were called off.

Powered by potent rushing attacks, both squads are hovering around 44 points per game, while allowing the opposition to score about half that.

Tulsa has spread the wealth with a different tailback eclipsing the century mark in each for its three games.

Fresno State, on the other hand, has relied heavily on its newly crowned all-time leading rusher, Robbie Rouse, who has also rushed for 115 yards or more in each game this season.

Both defenses have been making plays as well. Tulsa leads the nation with 10.7 tackles for loss per game and is second in sacks at 5.7. Meanwhile, Fresno State’s Phillip Thomas returned two of his three interceptions against Colorado for scores.

The Bulldog defensive unit that gave Oregon fits two weeks ago (11 tackles for loss and three takeaways) will be the difference going against Golden Hurricane quarterback Cody Green, who tossed a pair of interceptions in the 38-23 loss at Iowa State in the opener.

Opening point spread: Tulsa by 6 1/2

The pick: Fresno State 34-27

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

New Mexico at New Mexico State
Sat., Sept. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN3

Hey, this might not be the Iron Bowl, but you gotta give props to an in-state rivalry that predates its statehood by 18 years.

Unsurprisingly, the Aggies are considerable favorites in this 103rd renewal of the Rio Grande Rivalry, which dates all the way back to 1894. The Lobos have won only a single game in each of their previous three seasons.

On the bright side for New Mexico, it’s in position for improvement after thrashing visiting Southern University, 66-21, in the opener.

But the schedule tightened up quite a bit after Bob Davie’s debut as the Lobos got laid out on the road by Texas (45-0) and Texas Tech (49-14). This will be New Mexico’s third consecutive game away from Albuquerque. If we weren’t talking about a short-haul rivalry game that would be cause for extreme concern.

New Mexico State has followed a similar pattern this season, opening with an easy win over Sacramento State, before dropping a pair on the road at Ohio and UTEP.

Davie is putting his stamp on the Lobos, who are averaging 212 rushing yards per game. That’s rather healthy, considering the competition they’ve faced. It’s also more than double what the Aggies have been able to muster on the ground (95 yards per game).

It’ll be close, but the Lobos’ drive home along I-25 will be an unpleasant one as the Aggies notch their fourth consecutive victory in the series.

Opening point spread: New Mexico State by 8 1/2

The pick: New Mexico State 26-23

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15 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 4”
  1. pb420 says: Sep 19, 2012 4:20 PM

    Seriously?! A win over the almighty wake forest and you’re ready to crown FSU NC huh? Not saying that they aren’t improved, as they clearly are. I just think this wkend’s game is a more telling story. You know, against a team that is actually ranked.

  2. Deb says: Sep 19, 2012 7:12 PM

    FSU is clearly improved, but like pb420, I can’t read much into a victory over Wake Forest. I’m looking forward to seeing FSU battle a truly worthy opponent in Clemson. But since half my friends are Gator diehards and half are Seminoles, I just sit quietly and let them rip on each other. When one of them finally loses–and Florida has LSU in two weeks–the smack is gonna be deafening :)

    Otherwise, this Tide fan would like to say … Good luck, Michigan!! Go Blue!!

  3. thecrazyasianinseccountry says: Sep 19, 2012 7:53 PM

    Deb…
    Good to hear from you again, looking forward to another Nov 3 rematch!?!
    Hope both schools are undefeated when the time comes.
    Good Luck to your Tides and we’ll see ya there!

  4. dmvtransplant says: Sep 19, 2012 8:09 PM

    @ Deb

    You should know interesting fact as of, the end of last football season the head coach of Wake & Rutgers had the exact same record 68-67. Yet for some reason Tampa Bay hired Greg Schiano to be their head coach, weird right?

  5. rsmeans says: Sep 20, 2012 12:11 AM

    No one in the country is likely to put up more than 17 on FSU. FSU clearly has one of the three best defenses in the country if not the best. It will be a miracle if they are not in the NC probably against Alabama. If so FSU will be the toughest challenge Alabama faces during the year. Prediction FSU 35 Clemson 7.. I do not like FSU but must give credit where credit is due.

  6. Deb says: Sep 20, 2012 12:32 AM

    @thecrazyasian …

    Hi!! That’s right–November 3! Boy, is that going to be a wild week! Saw today where some guy told you a couple of days ago that LSU will lose two games in the next couple of weeks. I thought, “Seriously??” Think he’s been at the wacky water LOL

    @dmvtransplant …

    Didn’t realize those two coaches had the same record. I like Schiano, but he sure made some ripples in the NFL this weekend!

    @rsmeans …

    I hope Bama will sustain through the season and get another title shot. But sure would hate to have my FSU pals down on me like some of my Gator pals were after the SEC championship in 2009!

  7. thecrazyasianinseccountry says: Sep 20, 2012 3:40 AM

    @Deb
    This year’s offense is much improve from last year’s one dimensional team. Matt Z is gaining more confidence as the season go. Opponents now have to respect the deep threat, which in turn opens up for the talented “four horseman” by the name of; Ware, Blue, Hilliard, and Ford, and don’t forget about Hill either, to locate more wholes in the front end of the defense and begin to pile up yards by the committee.
    Defensively we may not be as good as last year’s defense, but by no means are they a bunch of slouch.!
    In last year’s Championship Game there was egos aplenty, and I hope our coaching staff learn from it and understand that stubbornness and pride gets you nowhere, and whatever it was that Les Miles was trying to prove I certainly hope he got it off his chest and realize that this is a team game and everyone that is part of the team must perform at their highest level for a team to truly succeed. Listen to the people you hired to do the job and trust their input, otherwise don’t have an assistant and try to run it yourself.
    With that said, it’s true that LSU can fall on any given Saturday, but as a Follower of Tigers’ Football, I truly feel that this team, not only has a chip on its shoulder, has all the talents to undefeated. No longer do I worry whether or not the offense can move the ball down the field, nor do I would about our defense matching up with any teams in the country.
    This my friend is a very special group of young men that are destine for greatness!
    Geaux Tigers!!!

  8. florida727 says: Sep 20, 2012 9:46 AM

    As a Gator fan, I’m just going to sit back and enjoy our two weeks off (Kentucky this week, then an actual bye week) as we get ready to host LSU. Need to be healthy to have any remote chance of upsetting the Tigers. Man, they look good. We’ll give it our best shot though. Emotion can carry you for a half. It’s the second half where talent takes over, and LSU has it in spades.

    Looking forward to FSU and Clemson. Glad they put that in prime time. Have friends going to the game. Should be a typical awesome environment at Doak Campbell. Good luck ‘Noles.

  9. chicagoirish23 says: Sep 20, 2012 9:56 AM

    As a Notre Dame fan, I liked it better when CFT was picking against Notre Dame.

  10. tlmoon2112 says: Sep 20, 2012 11:11 AM

    Very much looking forward to seeing FSU play a real opponent.

  11. Deb says: Sep 20, 2012 4:14 PM

    I see JT still serves the same classy clientele. All bitter and no brains. LOL Meanwhile, I just sit back and count the trophies :D

  12. Deb says: Sep 20, 2012 4:25 PM

    @thecrazyasisan …

    You’re being a little hard on last year’s LSU squad. Can’t speak to what went on behind the scenes, but they were a mighty force on the field. I still stay that was one of the finest secondaries I’ve ever seen in college ball. Yes, I think this year’s LSU team is just as impressive–perhaps moreso with a steady hand at QB. I’ve never liked having two QBs to choose between. Teams always perform better when there’s one clear leader.

    That’s why I was flabbergasted when that guy was posting his predictions of LSU losses. I just don’t see the Tigers slipping in the coming weeks. LSU will remain tough, and the Bama showdown will be hard-fought, as always. It could go either way. I’ll do what I’ve always done–call it like I see it, which means being complimentary to a great, multi-talented LSU team. Thanks for being a classy LSU fan who acts like a good sport instead of just talking about what a great person you are.

  13. polegojim says: Sep 22, 2012 8:59 AM

    I enjoy when Michigan is the underdog against Notre Dame.

    Can’t fault JT on his prediction. I’m VERY unimpressed with Mattison’s results on D to this point. So far 2012 = 59th in the nation @ 369 YDS per game??? And haven’t played ANY offensive powerhouses. 2011 = 19th at 317.

    I understand the whole… ‘not entirely his team yet’ concept, but would like to have seen SOME glimmer of improvement in stead of back sliding.

  14. sssjim7 says: Sep 22, 2012 10:09 PM

    rsmeans says:Sep 20, 2012 12:11 AM

    No one in the country is likely to put up more than 17 on FSU. FSU clearly has one of the three best defenses in the country if not the best. It will be a miracle if they are not in the NC probably against Alabama. If so FSU will be the toughest challenge Alabama faces during the year. Prediction FSU 35 Clemson 7.. I do not like FSU but must give credit where credit is due.

    Uh, yeah… I think you have this one backwards!
    Clemson 42, FSU 21 is my prediction

  15. sssjim7 says: Sep 22, 2012 11:27 PM

    @rsmeans…

    …. or maybe not… Clemson folded in the second half again… sigh…

    But on the bright side, nobody will have to hear me say Clemson will go to the NC game again this year…. lol

    later+
    ~Jim

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