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Predictions 101 — Week 5

Maryland v West Virginia Getty Images

We went 4-3 last week (both straight up and vs. “the number”), but feel left out.

How come only the fortunate folks who do this sort of thing for NFL games, get to have fun with the wild card of ridiculous replacement refs? Hey, we’d like to go on rants and blame our losses on officiating too.

Oh well.

Is it just us or does the college football season seem like it’s fast-forwarding away? Here we are at Week 5 already.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thurs., Sept. 27, thru Sat., Sept. 29)

1) No. 25 Baylor at No. 9 West Virginia
Sat., Sept. 29 — noon ET, FX

It’s all been building up to this for the Mountaineers, who are making their Big 12 debut. And the Bears have been holding up their end rather well, perhaps unexpectedly.

Some doubted Baylor’s ability to soldier on without Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Robert Griffin III, running back Terrance Ganaway and wideout Kendall Wright, but Nick Florence has stepped up admirably, throwing for at least 312 yards and three scores in all three games this season.

On the flip side, the West Virginia offense led by quarterback Geno Smith has lived up to its lofty preseason hype. With 1,072 passing yards, 12 touchdown passes and zero interceptions on Smith’s resume so far, he is the Heisman frontrunner.

Along with wideouts Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, Smith has to be licking his chops. The prospect of a team that’s allowing 492.7 yards per game coming into Morgantown for the first time is quite inviting and could signal a landslide of points.

Baylor, which is averaging 51.3 points per game (fifth in the nation), should generate some success of its own against a West Virginia defense that allowed Maryland to pass for 305 yards and convert on half of its 14 third-down attempts in a closer-than-expected 31-21 victory last Saturday. We just don’t expect it to be nearly enough.

The Bears are 0-25 versus ranked Big 12 foes on the road and don’t figure to break through on Mountaineer Field.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 10

The pick: West Virginia 45-27

2) No. 14 Ohio State at No. 20 Michigan State
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This is as good as it gets for the Big Ten at this point, but it sadly feels so incomplete.

Spartan signalcaller Andrew Maxwell has been underwhelming so far, but a sloppy fleet of receivers should share the blame. Thankfully for Michigan State, running back Le’Veon Bell has held up his end of the bargain, grinding out 152.5 yards per game (although only 77 versus Notre Dame).

Perhaps that group will find its groove against a Buckeye defense that’s far below its usual caliber, ranking last in the B1G in yards allowed (394.8).

Michigan State’s defense, on the other hand, leads the league in every major statistical category. That includes surrendering just 69.3 yards per game on the ground.

Buckeye quarterback Braxton Miller and running back Carlos Hyde, who has recovered from a sprained knee, have their sights set on rushing for many more yards than that, but it remains to be seen … just like the overall revival expected under the direction of Urban Meyer.

Perhaps they’ve been waiting for this stage to make a statement.

Opening point spread: Even

The pick: Ohio State 24-23

3) No. 12 Texas at Oklahoma State
Sat., Sept. 29 — 7:50 p.m. ET, FOX

Both teams had last week off to look forward to this one.

They also had an opportunity to look around the country and see who was doing what, especially teams they’ve played recently. What each camp saw was quite different.

Last time out, the Longhorns wrecked Ole Miss, 66-31. The Rebels, however, bounced back last week with a 39-0 victory at Tulane. RPI geeks love that stuff!

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are still smarting from a 59-38 loss at Arizona on Sept. 8. Watching those same Wildcats get melted down by Oregon, 49-0, last Saturday must have been pure agony for Mike Gundy.

Oddly enough, Texas visiting Stillwater isn’t the worst thing in the world for Oklahoma State. Although the Cowboys have won only four of the 26 games in the series, half of those victories have come in the last two years.

Most of the early talk about this matchup has focused on who’ll be behind center for OSU, but we won’t quibble either way without that knowledge. Whether it’s Wes Lunt at less than 100 percent or J.W. Walsh, we’re still talking about a young player who hasn’t yet got a taste for the big-time in primetime. No matter who takes the snaps, capable Cowboy running back Joseph Randle will have to carry a large portion of the mail against the Longhorn defense.

Texas’ quarterbacking isn’t in question. Sophomore David Ash has been sensational so far this season, completing 76 percent of his passes, with seven touchdown tosses and zero interceptions. However, astronomical passer ratings built at the expense of Wyoming, New Mexico and Ole Miss don’t really get us going enough to envision a win on the road for the Longhorns, who have won just six league games in the previous two seasons.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 37-31

4) No. 18 Oregon State at Arizona
Sat., Sept. 29 — 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i.

Utilizing good blue-collar football to produce two wins over ranked teams, while holding a pair of Heisman Trophy contending running backs to just 61 and 45 yards on the ground, Oregon State has been impressive and we are Beaver believers.

Oddsmakers aren’t as sold. We aren’t sure if they realize that the Beavs have taken six in a row from the Cats in Tucson.

Coach Mike Riley has the defense to do it again. Oregon State defenders are disciplined in their assignments, limit big plays and tackle well. However, the Arizona offense will see more production within the comfortable confines of the Zona Zoo.

We have to understand that the Oregon defense played well in last week’s 49-0 cruise past Arizona, but the football Gods also were smiling down on the Ducks. The Cats really set themselves up for the shutout by botching a field goal that would have put the first points on the board. In the end, they had six fruitless trips into the red zone and four turnovers.

That won’t happen two weeks in a row. The Arizona offense will get back into rhythm and Oregon State is in for a fight.

One might wonder how the Beavers will counter the Cats’ speedy 3-3-5 defense, which limited Oregon to just 13 first-half points. They’ll use freshman running back Storm Woods to control the pace, wear the UofA D down and win on a last-second score.

Opening point spread: Arizona by 3

The pick: Oregon State 33-31

5) Tennessee at No. 5 Georgia
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

It’s a bit of unfamiliar territory for the SEC’s marquee matchup to be this far down the P101 list. But most of that has to do with us being unable to trust a Volunteer defense that has been prone to give up big plays.

That bad habit won’t serve them well against a Bulldog offense triggered by Aaron Murray and powered by freshmen running backs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, which hasn’t scored less than 41 points in any game this season.

Not only is Georgia fresh off an impressive 48-3 victory over Vanderbilt, it might (only Mark Richt knows for sure) regain the services of safety Bacarri Rambo and linebacker Alec Ogletree, who have been sidelined by suspension since the start of the campaign.

The Bulldog defense has been stout, but some reinforcements would help in the effort to slow down the effectiveness of Vol quarterback Tyler Bray, who has the luxury of two show-stopping wideouts in Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 15 1/2

The pick: Georgia 38-27

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

No. 17 Clemson at Boston College
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

For the second time in three weeks, the P101-USOTW suffered a one-point defeat courtesy of a kicker failing in spectacular fashion. We’ll safeguard against that happening again by leaning on the leg of Eagle placekicker Nate Freese, who has connected on all 15 of his attempts this season (seven field goals and eight PATs).

Despite a 1-2 record, Boston College quarterback Chase Rettig has settled in nicely in his third year on Chestnut Hill, tossing just one interception while leading the ACC with 317 passing yards per game. He should continue his prolific connection with junior wide receiver Alex Amidon to give the Eagles scoring opportunities against a Clemson defense that was picked apart for 380 passing yards by Florida State’s E.J. Manuel last week.

After getting the better of the Seminoles for nearly three quarters, the Tigers will have to regroup from a devastating loss, which is much easier said than done. Last year, Clemson pulled a Clemson, going into a swoon that saw it go 2-3 the rest of the way after suffering its first defeat.

The Eagle defense features the nation’s leading tackler in senior linebacker Nick Clancy. He can help muck things up to produce a result similar to their 16-10 victory at Alumni Field two years ago.

Perhaps this is more “under” than upset.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 11

The pick: Boston College 19-13

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

Houston vs. Rice (at Reliant Stadium)
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET,

Separated by less than five miles, the warring factions in the Bayou Bucket Classic are as close as you’ll find at the FBS level.

Last year’s matchup, however, wasn’t close at all, as Houston accounted for 73 of the game’s 107 points.

Rice’s defense seems intent on repeating that limp performance. The Owls currently rank dead last in the country in scoring defense, allowing nearly 46 points per game.

But they won’t have to deal with Case Keenum this time. In fact, Rice might have the more effective offense.

Houston has turned the football over 10 times already this season, which is one of the reasons the Cougars have yet to hold a lead over anyone.

The Bayou Bucket hasn’t stayed in the same place since the Cougars won three in a row from 2005 to 2007. It’s the Owls’ turn to take it over to their side of town.

Opening point spread: Houston by 7

The pick: Rice 35-34

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Houston bringing in Boise State transfer

Miami Ohio Boise St Football AP

Houston may have lost its leading rusher from the 2012 season to transfer, but the Cougars are apparently bringing in a player on the other side of the ball with the potential to start.

Lee Hightower announced on his Tumblr account that he will be transferring to Houston and will play for the Cougars.  The move comes after the defensive back had visited the school last weekend.

“Really dope city and school and I’ll be here for the next 3 years,” Hightower wrote.

Hightower was indefinitely suspended in early February for violating unspecified team rules and subsequently released by Boise State head coach Chris Petersen.  It was Hightower’s second suspension in less than four months.

The initial suspension came after Hightower had started the first seven games of the 2012 season at strong safety.  He did not play again last season.

Hightower becomes the second Broncos transfer to land at an FBS program in Texas this week.  Defensive lineman Sam Ukwuachu, dismissed earlier this month, announced that he will be enrolling at Baylor.

(Tip O’ the Cap: Idaho Statesman)

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Juwan Caesar granted release from Mich. St. scholarship

Juwan Caesar

The mini-deluge of departures continues Thursday afternoon, with Michigan State the latest to see its football roster thinned.

In a press release, the Spartans announced that wide receiver Juwan Caesar has asked for and been granted a release from his MSU scholarship.  There’s no word on where the Miami, Fla., native may transfer.

A three-star member of the Spartans’ 2011 recruiting class, Caesar was rated as the No. 67 receiver in the country and the No. 77 player in the state of Florida.

Caesar’s true freshman season was derailed by a foot injury and he took a redshirt.  He did not play as a redshirt freshman in 2012, and was moved to tight end during bowl practices.

(Photo credit: Michigan State athletics)

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USF confirms Steven Bench’s addition via transfer

Steven Bench AP

Following up on Steven Bench‘s self-reporting earlier today, USF has confirmed the addition of a new player to its football program.

The Bulls announced via a press release that the quarterback is indeed transferring to the school.  Bench announced late last month that he would be transferring from Penn State, and USF has been considered one of the front-runners to land the Cairo, Ga., product.

“We’re definitely excited that Steven decided to join the USF family,” head coach Willie Taggart said in a statement. “He is a coach’s son, who brings a lot of toughness to the game. His addition will also elevate the competition at quarterback, which will be good for all the players at the position. We’re looking forward to his arrival on campus so he can start working out with the guys, while getting acclimated to the way we do things.”

The release further noted that Bench is allowed to play in 2013 due to the Nittany Lions’ NCAA sanctions and will have three years of eligibility remaining.

Bench, a three-star member of the Nittany Lions’ 2012 recruiting class, told Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times that one of the biggest reasons for opting for the Bulls was that the coaching staff made it clear they not only “needed a quarterback, but they made me feel like they needed me to be their quarterback, and that goes a long way.”

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Thursday offseason one-liners

Tulane Player Hurt Football AP

Some links from around college football on a Thursday…

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Ex-Penn State QB lands at USF

Penn State Spring Game AP

Nearly a month to the day it was announced that he would be transferring from Penn State, Steven Bench has found a new home to continue his playing career.

On his Twitter account Thursday morning, the quarterback revealed that he has “decided to attend the University of South Florida and become a [B]ull!!”  USF was one of a handful of schools that Bench had considered since leaving the Nittany Lions last month.

The Bulls have not yet officially announced Bench’s addition to the football program.

As has been previously noted, Bench will be eligible to play immediately in 2013 because of Penn State’s NCAA sanctions.  He will have three years of eligibility remaining plus a redshirt season.

Along with the Bulls, Bench had also visited Mississippi State and North Carolina State. Both FIU and Temple were reportedly in the mix at some level.

As a true freshman last season, Bench appeared in two games and attempted seven passes.

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Former Miami (OH) WR transferring to Kansas

Nick Harwell, Gerald Moore AP

‘Tis the season for transfers, apparently.

Following up on some hints from Kansas coach Charlie Weis on Wednesday, Kansas announced that evening that former Miami (OH) wide receiver Nick Harwell would be joining the program. Harwell was dismissed from the school last week by the dean’s office following an arrest in March that also resulted in his suspension from spring practices. As a result, he was no longer considered part of the football team.

Harwell pleaded guilty to one count of attempted theft on May 9 and was sentenced to 90 days in jail with 89 days suspended for the incident.

Despite his off-the-field issue, Harwell was an extremely productive receiver for the RedHawks. He led the team in receiving yards (870) and touchdowns (eight), and finished second in receptions (68) — all while missing three games with injuries. Harwell was also the NCAA’s second-leading receiver in 2011 with 129.6 receiving yards per game, finishing his sophomore campaign with 97 receptions for 1,425 yards and nine touchdowns.

Harwell leaves Miami as the school’s second all-time leading receiver in career receptions (229) and yards (3,166), as well as third in receiving touchdowns (23).

It’s not clear if Harwell will be eligible to play right away for the Jayhawks, but Weis has stated he’s looking for players who can make an immediate impact (much of KU’s 2013 signing class was made up of JUCO players).

And keep in mind that no Kansas wide receiver caught a touchdown last year.

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Georgia loses a TE to transfer

Ty Flournoy-Smith, Ken Malcome, Alexander Ogletree AP

Though Aaron Murray will be looking to the likes of Arthur Lynch and Jay Rome to make plays at the tight end position, Georgia’s depth at that spot has taken a bit of a hit.

The school confirmed Wednesday that sophomore  Ty Flournoy-Smith was transferring from the program. It’s not exactly certain where he’ll go, but it appears the JUCO route is the early favorite. Bulldogs coach Mark Richt even said there’s a possibility Smith could return to the team at a later point.

Smith had some off-the-field trouble this past February when he was arrested for falsely reporting a crime. Smith claimed his textbooks were stolen, whereas police found out he tried to sell them back to the bookstore.

Smith played in eight games last season, but did not record a reception.

(Hat tip: Athens Banner-Herald) 

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Updated: Houston’s leading RB departing

Charles Sims AP

In January, Houston running back Charles Sims announced he would bypass the NFL draft and return for his senior season with the Cougars. Now it appears that plan may not be in the cards for Sims.

According to Rob Sellers of CougarsDen.com (giggity), Sims is leaving the program, though exactly why isn’t clear. In a release from the school a short time later, UH said Sims was simply weighing his future options. One thing the release made clear was that Sims has not asked for his release, something he’d have to do if he wished to transfer. Sims has already graduated from Houston and would be eligible to play immediately if he decided that was the route he wanted to go.

“We congratulate Charles on receiving his degree last week and becoming a Cougar for life,” coach Tony Levine said in a statement, adding Sims “has been a leader for our program both on and off field with number of accomplishments.”

Another option for Sims could be the NFL’s supplemental draft in June. Obviously, this is all a bit out of the blue considering he’s just months removed from electing to return to UH for another year.

Wherever he ends up, some team, whether at the college or pro level, is getting an excellent running back. Sims was a first-team All Conference USA selection in 2011 and a second-team selection last season. Despite nagging injuries, he still finished 2012 with 851 yards rushing and six yards per carry — still good enough to lead the team. He’s also a noted pass-catcher and can be a versatile weapon for any offense.

Updated 9:15 p.m. ET: In a statement released to CougarsDen.com, Sims confirmed he is departing Houston. As you’ll read below, what the running back’s future holds still remains unclear.

“It is with regret and deep humbling, that I am ending my playing career at the University of Houston. I have a lot of great memories that I will carry with me forever. I want to thank the University of Houston for allowing the opportunity to be a part of its football program.

I have worked extremely hard while I have been here at U of H and made every attempt to carry myself in a manner that would reflect the utmost integrity upon the school and this program.

I don’t know what my next step will be. I have one more year of eligibility, therefore I may look to play (1) more year of college football or I may enter the NFL Supplemental Draft later this year.

My family and I will continue to discuss my options and we will make a decision in the near future.”

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Nevada names football field after Chris Ault

Chris Ault AP

Nevada coach and Pistol offense innovator Chris Ault stepped down as the Wolf Pack’s head coach last December after nearly three decades of service. Less than six months later, he’s getting a well-deserved honor.

In a Wednesday press conference, Nevada-Reno president Marc Johnson announced that the field at the university’s Mackay Stadium would bear Ault’s name going forward. So, officially, it’s now Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium.

“I was always blessed at this University but my biggest blessing was always my family,” Ault said at the presser. “Though there is only one name on the field, I’m hoping it reflects a University and community that supported us, and players and coaches who did so much for our program. This is not about one person.”

Sure, but there’s no denying Ault is synonymous with Nevada football. Ault had three separate stints as Nevada’s coach — 1976-92, 1994-95 and 2004-present.  He was also the school’s athletic director from 1986-2004, guiding the Nevada football program from the Div. II level to Div. I-AA to the FBS level (then-Div. I-A) in 1992.

In all, Ault spent 41 of the past 48 years at his alma mater as a player, coach and/or administrator. His final record over his coaching career was 233-109-1.

Ault was hired earlier this month by the Kansas City Chiefs as a consultant, demonstrating just how far his influence with the Pistol has gone.

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Report: Oregon received Notice of Allegations in December

Oregon v USC Getty Images

Oregon reportedly met with the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions last month — perhaps around April 19th or 20th — over alleged recruiting violations dating back to 2008 in the Chip Kelly era. The hearing was a result of the university’s bid for a summary disposition with the NCAA falling through late last year.

According to documents obtained by the Eugene Register-Guard, UO received a Notice of Allegations from the NCAA on Dec. 5, 2012. The NOA lists seven specific allegations of wrongdoing under Kelly, who became the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles toward the beginning of this year, that, per the paper, ”closely resemble — almost to the word — the allegations listed in Oregon’s failed attempt at a summary disposition…” Said to be included in those allegations is a failure to monitor charge that may include Kelly.

Additionally, the NOA states Oregon could be subject to penalties under the repeat violator rule because alleged recruiting misconduct involving J.J. Arrington in 2004. If Oregon is considered a repeat violator by the NCAA — a major violation would have to occur within five years of another major violation — it would shed light on why the summary disposition failed last year.

From the Oregonian on March 8, 2012:

In its online glossary of terms, the NCAA defines summary disposition as “a cooperative process between the school, involved individuals and the NCAA enforcement staff.”

It continues, explaining how an in-person hearing in front of the Committee on Infractions can be avoided. But then, in bold print, is the kicker:

“A school that would become a repeat-violator cannot use the summary disposition process and must go before the Committee on Infractions.”

In April, multiple outlets reported that Oregon and the NCAA previously “agreed” that major violations occurred in the use of recruiting services. However, the NCAA’s enforcement staff noted in the documents that there was “no finding of lack of institutional control and no finding of unethical conduct.” Because Oregon’s attempt at a summary disposition ultimately failed, the findings in the documents weren’t necessarily binding.

In March of 2011, Yahoo! Sports and ESPN.com published reports that called into question the financial relationship between Oregon and a pair of so-called recruiting services.  One of those services was Complete Scouting Services and its owner Willie Lyles. Among the items of interest in the business relationship between UO and Lyles stems from a “2011 National Package” sold to the Ducks in 2010 at a price of $25,000 that contained no recruits that would make up the following year’s class. Impermissible phone calls and too many coaches on the recruiting trail are among the other allegations said to be facing the program.

Oregon has proposed a two-year probation period and a reduction of one scholarship for each of the next three seasons as a result of the alleged violations. The COI can add additional sanctions to the program, at which time UO can either accept the them or appeal. The university’s policy regarding the ongoing case, as it has been along, has been that of “no comment.”

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Wednesday offseason one-liners

Navy v South Carolina Getty Images

Some links from around college football on a Wednesday… 

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Teddy Bridgewater stiff arms a Heisman campaign

Teddy Bridgewater AP

Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater ended the 2012-13 season as one of the early preseason Heisman favorites for the upcoming year. Whether he makes it to New York next December remains to be seen, but if he does, the junior doesn’t want any help from the school.

Per WDRB.com, Bridgewater asked his coaches for no Heisman campaign from the program.

“He went to the coaches not wanting a Heisman-type campaign,” UL SID Rocco Gasparro said. “He wanted it to be about team and if we won as a team individual recognition would come anyway. It says a lot about the character of Teddy, I think, and how much his team means to him.”

If nothing else, it’s a departure from his tone toward the Heisman last month. When asked in April if he would mind the school putting on a Heisman campaign for him, Bridgewater said ”Not at all. It’s something that I’ve been training for my whole life to be in these shoes, and at this stage, I don’t see anything wrong with it.”

That’s because there isn’t, but if Bridgewater really is more focused on the bigger picture, good on him. If he — if Louisville — has a great year with the more than manageable schedule the Cardinals face, he’ll probably be in New York either way.

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Ex-Boise State D-lineman says he’s transferring to Baylor

Colorado St Boise St Football AP

Given the boot from Boise State earlier this month for violating team rules, defensive lineman Sam Ukwuachu says he’s found his transfer destination. And it’s back in his home state of Texas.

Speaking to Sic’EmSports.com, Ukwuachu says it’s a “done deal” that he will transfer to Baylor early next month. The redshirt freshman recently visited Waco and chose the Bears over Florida and Utah. Baylor cannot comment on the news until Ukwuachu officially enrolls.

“Baylor was my best option. It’s close to home. It’s a good program. [Boise St. Chris Petersen] really helped me to where I wanted to go. Things just didn’t work out up there,” Ukwuachu told the site, adding that while he was reportedly dismissed from the team, he and Petersen came to a mutual understanding that it was best to part ways. Ukwuachu also missed Boise’s spring practice because of what Petersen called “personal things.”

Ukwuachu played in all 13 games for the Broncos last season, including 12 starts. He was named a Freshman All-American by the Football Writers Association of America.

Barring a special waiver, Ukwuachu will have to sit out a season to satisfy NCAA transfer rules.

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Bob Stoops says devastating tornado came ‘about a mile’ from his home

Bob Stoops AP

Like many of you, I’m sure, I was glued to the television yesterday watching as a horrifying tornado ripped through central Oklahoma.

While Monday’s events are separate from football, there is a football angle. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops and his family live just south of Moore, OK, a town unfortunately hit hard by yesterday’s storm. Stoops said his family could see the tornado through their back window; he was working at OU’s football offices at the time.

It crossed over just north of us and just about a mile from our home,” said Stoops.

To his knowledge, no player was directly affected by yesterday’s tornado. However, two assistant OU coaches, a grad assistant and strength coach, lost their homes.

We’re glad Stoops, his family, and the entire OU family, are safe. And certainly our thoughts go out to those who were not so lucky.

(Hat tip: the Oklahoman) 

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Johnny Manziel shows he can throw accurately… while blindfolded

Johnny Manziel AP

What do coaches always say to quarterbacks? You better be able to make all the throws in your playbook blindfolded?

Johnny Manziel says “challenge accepted.”

Known more for his improv ability, the Heisman Trophy winner showed off his throwing accuracy as well during a “Zorro drill” while training with quarterback guru George Whitfield Jr. Blindfolded, Manziel tossed just two uncatchable balls out of 29 attempts. Not too shabby.

“I have always said he has the best antenna in football,” Whitfield said. “I think he just proved that.”

And if anyone needs anymore proof, here’s a video of one of the passes.

It might not be on the level of a trick shot video, but it’s impressive nevertheless.

(Hat tip: Fort Worth Star-Telegram) 

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