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Predictions 101 — Week 10

LSU vs Alabama Football AP

After a perfect Week 9, the fall from grace last week was inevitable.

Last week, we went 5-2 straight, losing the two biggest games (good for Georgia and Notre Dame, bad for us), and 3-4 versus “the number.”

On the bright side, the USOTW is on a roll (good news for Maryland on Saturday).

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thurs., Nov. 1, thru Sat., Nov. 3)

1) No. 1 Alabama at No. 5 LSU
Sat., Nov. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, CBS

No offense to the parties involved, but we’re tickled that another rematch between these two in January appears to be out of the question. We like old school football, but it’s kind of “too much of a good thing,” and also a lack of fireworks issue.

In this one, we’re seriously wondering if the Tigers will get into the end zone. When you’re saying that about a Top 5 team playing at home, that’s really something, but LSU was able to muster only three field goals in its two meetings with Alabama last season. Of course, that was good enough to earn a split with the Crimson Tide, who were able to register just one touchdown in that twin-bill.

Considering the fact that the Tigers have had to play with five different offensive line combinations this season, in front of rocky quarterbacking, it’s hard to figure where the points are going to come from against Alabama’s rock-solid defense.

LSU ranks eighth in the SEC in both scoring and total offense, and is particularly challenged in the pass game (11th in SEC in passing efficiency and 12th in passing offense).

Playing in Death Valley, however, will be a significant plus for Les Miles’ crew, which is also more battle tested than the Tide. This will be the Tigers’ fourth consecutive game against ranked opposition. Prior to last Saturday’s 38-7 victory over Mississippi State, Alabama hadn’t faced a ranked foe since the season opener versus Michigan.

Crimson Tide quarterback A.J. McCarron counteracts many of LSU’s advantages through his leadership and decision making under fire. He leads the nation in passing efficiency and has yet to throw an interception this season.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 7

The pick: Alabama 20-6

2) No. 2 Oregon at No. 18 USC
Sat., Nov. 3 — 7 p.m. ET, FOX

The Trojans won’t need any help from themselves to lose to the Ducks. Oregon is more than capable of flying past USC all by its lonesome, unlike Arizona, which needed Troy to participate by burying itself last Saturday.

The deadly mix of five turnovers, 13 penalties and Lane Kiffin’s wretched coaching will get you every time, even in Tucson.

And now the Trojans step way up in class as they host the Ducks, who have no shortage of motivation to add USC to their growing list of victims. The Trojans are the only non-SEC team to beat Oregon since the start of the 2010 season and since that 38-35 defeat last November, the Ducks have won 11 straight, scoring 40 or more points each time.

Oregon currently leads the nation in scoring with 53.4 points per game.

USC leads the nation in getting the least out of their talent.

The once-thought-to-be-mighty Trojans rank fifth in the Pac-12 in total offense and sixth in total defense. The writing is already on the walls in Troy. Mr. Kiffin will shepherd USC through the rest of the probationary period and then be shown the door. (Unless some poor misguided soul decides that Kiffin is the answer and hires him away first. Don’t laugh. It has happened a couple times before.)

It’ll be surreal to see the Trojans melt in their own Coliseum, but we just can see it going down any other way.

The Ducks are incredibly fast starters, outscoring opponents, 290-56, in the first half this season. But, while Oregon won’t be able to turn the game over to backups after the second quarter as it normally does, USC isn’t capable of playing catch up.

The Trojans have scored only 28 points in the third quarter all season. Yes, eight games, 28 points. Yikes. Obviously, making the proper halftime adjustments is a concept that’s completely foreign to the Kiffin brain trust.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 6

The pick: Oregon 49-31

3) Oklahoma State at No. 3 Kansas State
Sat., Nov. 3 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

This one seems very clear on paper. That’s the only thing that makes us nervous.

The Wildcats have already dealt with the likes of Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech, limiting each of them to 24 points or less. Therefore, what reason would there be to not side with a Kansas State team that’s averaging more than 44 points and has scored 55 points in back-to-back games?

Furthermore, the Wildcats rank first in the Big 12 and fifth in the nation in turnover margin (+1.9). Giving extra possessions to quarterback Collin Klein equals “no chance.”

Klein’s counterpart, Wes Lunt, returned to action last week in a victory over TCU, after missing the three previous games with a knee injury. He completed 18-of-33 for 324 yards and got into a groove as the game went on, leading the Cowboys to 36 unanswered points after falling behind 14-0.

We doubt Lunt will continue with that momentum in Manhattan in what will be only the second start on the road for the redshirt freshman.

Opening point spread: Kansas State by 7

The pick: Kansas State 41-24

4) Pittsburgh at No. 4 Notre Dame
Sat., Nov. 3 — 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

The Panthers roll into South Bend hoping to wreck the Fighting Irish’s perfect season and BCS title dreams. The possibility does exist since we’ve got a double-digit favorite coming home off a massive victory on the road to face a scrappy spoiler with nothing to lose. We’ve seen this sort of upset many times before, even under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus.

But with Notre Dame’s return to relevance and so much on the line, including a Heisman Trophy campaign for linebacker Manti Te‘o, we believe focus won’t waver. The Irish are further bolstered by the third-quarter display at Oklahoma last week that featured clock killing 12- and 13-play drives.

Pitt won’t see the ball nearly enough to even think about pulling off a shocker. And when they do, Te‘o will be in the way. He might even get into the end zone for a Heisman moment and match the Panthers’ scoring output.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 19

The pick: Notre Dame 41-6

5) No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 17 Mississippi State
Sat., Nov. 3 — noon ET, ESPN

Last week’s divergent results and America’s growing fascination with Johnny Manziel cloud the reality here in our book.

We aren’t saying to discount the fact that the Aggies dropped 63 points on Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium or forget about the way the Bulldogs were dominated at Alabama last Saturday. However, when looking at this particular game on its own, it appears to be close to a draw.

Manziel’s ability to make plays is simply amazing, but Mississippi State quarterback Tyler Russell and running back LaDarius Perkins will be able to counterpunch effectively.

This season ending gauntlet for the Bulldogs is off the charts (Bama, A&M, LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss), but something is telling us that they’ll pickup at least a couple wins and this is one of them.

Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 2 1/2

The pick: Mississippi State 28-27

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

Georgia Tech at Maryland
Sat., Nov. 3 — 12:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network

Once again, the USOTW prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

This is an intriguing matchup as Georgia Tech can only move the football on the ground and Maryland boasts one of the nation’s best defenses, which allows less than 78 rushing yards per game.

In the past two weeks, the Terrapins combined to allow just 48 yards rushing, but suffered a pair of heart-breaking ACC setbacks to North Carolina State and Boston College. Maryland has lost by a field goal or less in three of their four defeats.

How will the Terps move the ball? Their 116th ranked offense hasn’t done much of that all year and they are without a healthy scholarship quarterback after seeing all four of them go down with injuries.

Desperate times call for desperate measures and that means true freshman Shawn Petty, who was previously a linebacker, gets the nod. Last year at Eleanor Roosevelt High School, Petty tossed 15 touchdown strikes against four interceptions, and added another nine scores on the ground while running an option offense.

The Yellow Jackets enter below .500 and are still searching for their first road win.

In the battle of options, we’ll go with the home team that has played close games all year and might just get another big special teams play from freshman wideout Stefon Diggs.

Opening point spread: Georgia Tech by 7

The pick: Maryland 16-13

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan at Minnesota
Sat., Nov. 3 — noon ET, Big Ten Network

In 1903, legendary Michigan head coach Fielding Yost feared that Minnesota fans might contaminate his water supply, so he instructed student manager Tommy Roberts to get something to hold their own water. Roberts came back from a Minneapolis store with a five-gallon earthenware jug that cost him 30 cents.

Following that first game between the Wolverines and Golden Gophers — a 6-6 tie called with two minutes remaining due to chaos (gotta love it!) — Yost left the jug behind and it became a beloved “trophy” for Minnesota officials, who looked upon the tie as a momentous victory over a Michigan team that was on a 28-game winning streak.

Yost eventually asked for his jug back, but was told: “If you want it, you’ll have to win it.” Thus began this whole business of rivalry trophies. Yup, “The Little Brown Jug” … neither little, nor brown … but the granddaddy of them all.

The “point-a-minute” Wolverines of Yost’s day wouldn’t even recognize the Michigan team of the previous two weeks, which hasn’t visited the end zone. Four field goals were enough to beat Michigan State, 12-10, on Oct. 20, but three three-pointers didn’t come close to getting the job done at Nebraska in a 23-9 loss last Saturday.

Of course, not having Denard Robinson at quarterback was a huge problem in Lincoln. After Robinson re-aggravated a nerve injury that affects his throwing hand and arm, backup signalcaller Russell Bellomy struggled mightily. Bellomy attempted 16 passes and completed only three to teammates. Worse yet, three of his passes connected with Cornhuskers.

Minnesota broke a three-game losing streak last week, winning its first Big Ten game with a 44-28 decision over Purdue. A balanced Gopher offense finished with 458 total yards, committed zero turnovers and scored touchdowns on four consecutive possessions.

If Robinson isn’t right, the Wolverines could lose their grip on Yost’s jug once again.

Opening point spread: Michigan by 12 1/2

The pick: Michigan 24-21

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19 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 10”
  1. bouwel92 says: Oct 31, 2012 10:00 PM

    Heres another good rivalry, ULL and ULM. I know that its a sunbelt game, but regardless its usually a good game.

  2. texarkanasaint says: Oct 31, 2012 10:12 PM

    Liking the Iolani connection here

  3. norcalirish says: Nov 1, 2012 7:43 AM

    “Prior to last Saturday’s 38-7 victory over Mississippi State, Alabama hadn’t faced a ranked foe since the season opener versus Michigan”. Lol! Looking forward to see what alabama (as well as oregon) does against a quality opponent.

    usc, get your act together…good gracious.

    Oh…and fielding yost was crazy.

  4. steelers88 says: Nov 1, 2012 9:23 AM

    ND wins 41-6? WHAT! game is closer than you think PITT wins 24-17 over ND.

  5. steelers88 says: Nov 1, 2012 9:25 AM

    LSU upsets Alabama. LSU just does not loose to in Death Valley at night.

  6. jessejames182 says: Nov 1, 2012 9:31 AM

    this is ridiculous, just pick the aggies for once. they’ve played most of the teams Mississippi st has yet to play and only lost to LSU (I’m not saying they’ll beat Alabama but I do think it’ll be fun to see), they have a great chance to embarrass the bulldogs at home, which is what you should hope for, because if they roll into Alabama confident, it’ll be a million times more of an interesting game than LSU vs Alabama.

  7. dkhhuey says: Nov 1, 2012 10:08 AM

    I say LSU takes down Bama, then Bama gets its revenge in the Championship game – wait a minute -

  8. tngcowboy says: Nov 1, 2012 10:31 AM

    Wes Lunt is a true freshman not a RS… JW Walsh, the backup that started for Wes when he was out is a RS freshman.

  9. manchestermiracle says: Nov 1, 2012 10:31 AM

    How in the world is a complete and utter disappointment like USC included in this list? The Condoms have sleep-walked through the entire season so far, what makes anyone think they’ll wake up now?

    Kiffin is the embodiment of a politician in the world of sports: Recruits (campaigns) well, but cannot execute the job. His coaching staff has found myriad ways of under-performing while the “talent” on the field has under-achieved to a remarkable degree. The second-half slackoff is astounding, especially for this team.

    This game looked like a real treat at the start of the season. Now it’s pretty obvious Oregon will roll, with little in the way of resistance from the Rubbers. Barkley has regressed from last year and no longer has any chance of completing his “unfinished business.” Perceived strengths at the start of the season, i.e. offensive line and defensive secondary, have been ineffective to downright horrible.

    Notre Dame fans should be pissed, too. By the time they show up for the last game of the year the Condoms will no longer be a top-25 team. Hell, they shouldn’t be ranked NOW.

  10. imaduffer says: Nov 1, 2012 2:55 PM

    Oregon will score 49 points in the first half.

  11. pricecube says: Nov 1, 2012 3:00 PM

    I think A&M beats Miss St.

  12. florida727 says: Nov 1, 2012 4:14 PM

    LSU is 201-59-3 (.773) at night in Death Valley. Good luck to my “southernpatriots” friends. Geaux Tigers!

  13. 8to80texansblog says: Nov 1, 2012 5:49 PM

    I’m sorry but I just feel A&M is better than Miss St. A&M’s strength of schedule for games played is 20th in FBS to Miss St.’s 83rd. A&M has a top 5 offense in FBS. Miss St. has a better defense, but I think A&Ms D numbers are a bit skewed. Like last week, with a 5 TD lead, Sumlin pulled the starters and relaxed the D. If Johnny Football shows up instead of Johnny Turnover… its not even close.

    If the Aggies win this game, they have a very realistic shot at a 10 win season with a bowl win (No I don’t expect the Aggies to beat Bama in Tuscaloosa). But how many predicted the Aggies would win 10 games, their first year in SEC? Manziel is a Freshman and I am super excited about the future for the Aggies. Gig ‘Em! #BeatTheHellOuttaMississippiState

  14. infrno says: Nov 2, 2012 12:12 AM

    I will be in Death Valley, Geaux Tigers!

  15. florida727 says: Nov 2, 2012 11:15 AM

    Enjoy “infrno”. Bucket list item for me: attend an LSU night game in Baton Rouge.

  16. gards81 says: Nov 2, 2012 1:48 PM

    If you think Pitt will score more than OU agaisnt ND you should check yourself into the nut house. ND 30 Pitt 10

  17. infrno says: Nov 2, 2012 3:23 PM

    @florida727 – mine is to do the same in the Swamp. Tailgating and night games in Baton Rouge are something that you just have to experience at least once in your life if you’re a college football fan. My first experience was as a student in 1994, my favorite was October 11, 1997. Not trying to rib ya, but NO ONE gave us a prayer in that game. I’m hoping for something like that tomorrow.

  18. Deb says: Nov 2, 2012 7:01 PM

    I don’t make predictions nor count unhatched chickens. Just hoping my Tide will keep rolling. But it will be a tough, tough venue.

    Tend to agree with those who think A&M will best Mississippi State. Not sure why you picked the Bulldogs in that game.

    What happened to USC? The Trojans looked so promising before the season started.

    Hope Pittsburgh makes a game of it, but expect the Irish to get another big win.

  19. 808raiderinparadise says: Nov 2, 2012 7:20 PM

    I love how Mark May used this rationale …

    Since Pitt exploded 45 on Temple last week, he thinks they will give the ND defense problems.

    LMAO

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