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Klein still holding off Manziel as Heisman front-runner

Klein Manziel AP

Apparently, the oddsmakers’ paid little or no attention to the compelling case for Johnny Manziel made by Ben last weekend.

Just as in its last set of odds, Bovada.com‘s latest Heisman Trophy odds see Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein as the prohibitive favorite for the stiff-armed award at 2/3.  In late October, following a lopsided win over early-season front-runner Geno Smith and West Virginia, Klein’s odds were 4/7.

Klein is followed by Manziel, the Texas A&M quarterback looking to become the first freshman winner in the history of the prestigious award, at 3/1.  Manziel wasn’t even on the Heisman radar last month, gambling-wise.

Based solely on raw statistics, Manziel would be the runaway favorite as the Aggie trumps the Wildcat in passing yards (2780-2020), passing touchdowns (18-12) and rushing yards (1014-748), and is just one behind (19-18) in rushing touchdowns.  However, those totals are heavily skewed in Manziel’s favor as A&M runs nearly 20 more offensive plays per game than K-State; using yards per rush/pass completion, the two are in a virtual dead heat — 9.9 for Manziel vs. 9.3 for Klein.

On the other hand, Klein trumps Manziel in completion percentage (69.7-67.6), touchdown-to-interception ratio (12/3-18/6) and passing efficiency 167.4-151.2).  Add in the fact that K-State is a unanimous No. 2 in the major polls and sits atop the latest BcS rankings, and the precedent that no player in Manziel’s class has ever won a Heisman, it’s easy to see why this particular oddsmaker would lean toward Klein as the favorite.

“Collin Klein remains a clear favorite to win the Heisman, but it was tough to gauge how far behind Johnny Manziel really is after last week’s performance,” Bovada Sports Book manager Kevin Bradley said in the company’s release, referring to Manziel’s play in the upset win over Alabama. “We opened him at 5/2 this week but he did not draw any attention and have moved him to 3/1.

“Even though he may be worthy, I assume the fact that a freshman has never won is stuck in the bettor’s minds and, unless Klein really has a mishap, it is his to lose and is even taking money as odds on favorite at 2/5.”

As for other potential contenders, Bovada lists four other players:

Marqise Lee (WR USC) 8/1
Manti Te’o (LB Notre Dame) 10/1
Kenjon Barner (RB Oregon) 10/1
Braxton Miller (QB Ohio State) 30/1

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15 Responses to “Klein still holding off Manziel as Heisman front-runner”
  1. truefootballinsight says: Nov 16, 2012 7:28 AM

    JF has played some of the best D’s in college football. He is much better that Klein. But because JF is a freshman, and had no preseason hype he will not win it.

    Who would you take to build your team around? The Guy who beat the no.1 team at their house, or Klein who haven’t played a top 10 defense( that I can think of, maybe I’m wrong, but KSU has a weak SOS) also don’t think aTm wouldn’t have won the Florida game if it were not their first game with a new qb, and new coaches. His playbook has opened up quite the bit since then.

    The LSU game shows that he is still a freshman, but put any other QB in that game with the NFL ready DL and an amazing LB in Minter, and a serviceable DB group, and that QB will have picks, and not so many rushing yards. It happens when you play defenses.

  2. normswifevera says: Nov 16, 2012 9:14 AM

    “Who would you take to build your team around?”

    In 2012? The senior with the undefeated team who’s leading the Heisman race.

  3. tgaustin says: Nov 16, 2012 9:40 AM

    Look, I love Johnny Freaking Football…even as a Longhorn homer and former player. He definitely belongs in New York for the H-man, but “truefootballinsight” is off a wee bit. He’s played THREE good D’s all year…lost two and won one. He also turned the ball over three times against Ole Miss!!! He’s a Redshirt Freshman too, not a true Freshman…so he’s been with the program for two years now. The kid is the real deal and there’s a strong chance he could win…however, the two losses against LSU/Florida will slightly trump the V against Bama’! The excuse of, “well we beat up on each other game in and game out in the SEC” can no longer hold water. Who’s saying that other conferences across the country don’t beat up on each other in conference play?? Johnny Football is awesome for the game and he is fun as hell to watch…it will be interesting to see what next year has in store for the fella! Here’s to the Horns and Ag’s meeting up in the Cotton Bowl!!

  4. lucky5936 says: Nov 16, 2012 10:01 AM

    Both players provide similar production for their team. So the edge goes to the undefeated team. Yes Manziel won at Bama, but he also lost at home to LSU and an offensively challenged Florida team. Maziel wins the trophy if Klien loses a game though.

  5. saints97 says: Nov 16, 2012 10:24 AM

    If the two teams swapped schedules, it wouldn’t even be a race. Klein wouldn’t even be going to New York.

  6. gopokes0714 says: Nov 16, 2012 10:44 AM

    Its Klein, just stop with any other nonsense.

    K-State, think about that, K-STATE is #1 in the nation. 2 years ago what was this team?

    After OU & Arkansas last year I thought K-state wouldn’t go as far this year. I thought if teams took notice they would get exposed. I could not be more wrong.

    I also thought Klein would be too beat up yo be effective anymore. again wrong.

    Does anyone do more with less than Bill Snyder? K-State is #1 and without Klein they wouldn’t even be in the top 25. Klein is K-State, Klein is the #1 team in the nation. How does he not win the Heisman.

  7. thefiesty1 says: Nov 16, 2012 1:26 PM

    Underclassmen should not be eligible for the Heisman. Let’s see what he can do as a senior.

  8. goodfieldnohit says: Nov 16, 2012 1:35 PM

    http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1740659/jff_klein_01.jpg

  9. frug says: Nov 16, 2012 6:20 PM

    I’d give the edge to Klein based on turnovers. Klein has 3 INTs in 208 pass attempts and 2 FUMs in 154 rushing attempts. That’s 72.4 touches per turnover.
    Manziel has 6 INTs and 3 FUMs in 336 passes and 154 rushes, or 54.44 touches per turnover.

    Yes, Manziel has faced a tougher schedule of opposing defenses and produced scores at a slightly higher rate, but that doesn’t offset the fact he is turning the ball over almost 33% more frequently than Klein.

    Of course both players still have (at least) 2 more games to play so we will see what happens.

  10. saints97 says: Nov 16, 2012 8:22 PM

    One would think that quality of defense would play a factor in turnovers. But I guess in Frug’s world, that matters not.

  11. frug says: Nov 16, 2012 9:27 PM

    @saints97

    What part of Manziel has faced a tougher schedule of opposing defenses…, but that doesn’t offset the fact he is turning the ball over almost 33% more frequently than Klein. do you not understand?

    Yes, the quality of the opposing defenses effects turnover rates, but a 33% difference can’t be explained entirely by the quality of defenses they have played.

  12. saints97 says: Nov 17, 2012 8:32 AM

    Sure it can. Better defenses cause more turnovers. And the defenses that A&M has faced are certainly, at the very least, 33% better than the defenses that Kansas State has faced.

    As I said before, Klein wouldn’t even be in the running if Kansas State had to play A&M’s schedule this year.

  13. saints97 says: Nov 17, 2012 11:33 PM

    Well, what say you now?

  14. truefootballinsight says: Nov 17, 2012 11:43 PM

    @normswife

    All you can eat crow over on i-45 and 4th street.

    They lost to the 1-7 Baylor!!!!!! Jeez.

  15. jtwolfman says: Nov 18, 2012 12:18 AM

    Klein got torched by Baylor! HEisMANZIEL! K-State is done.

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