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Predictions 101 — Week 13

Notre Dame USC Getty Images

We were thankful to go 4-3 straight and versus “the number” last week.

Staying above water on a Saturday like that wasn’t easy. We didn’t have the two upsets that had everyone clamoring, but we did have a pair of others that got the job done.

So it’s on to rivalry week and what makes college football so special. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, who seemingly play each other 75 times a year, the Fighting Irish and Trojans get this chance to go at each other but once a year.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thurs., Nov. 22, thru Sat., Nov. 24)

1) No. 1 Notre Dame at USC
Sat., Nov. 24 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Look at these teams now. The Fighting Irish, who were unranked in the preseason, are undefeated and No. 1 in the land. Top-ranked in the preseason, the Trojans are currently unranked after losing three of their last four.

Adding injury to insult, USC is without quarterback Matt Barkley, who got K.O.’d in the final minutes of last week’s 38-28 loss to UCLA with an injury to his right shoulder.

Yup, everything seems to be moving in the direction of the Irish. When you have a linebacker being mentioned as a legit Heisman Trophy contender, that point can’t be denied.

Furthermore, the discrepancy in coaching ability is astounding.

Lane Kiffin is bringing about the fall of Troy in spectacular fashion on and off the field. His father, Monte, hasn’t got a clue in the world how to stop an opposing offense.

That certainly isn’t the case in South Bend. Brian Kelly’s team leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.1 points per game, and the Irish are adept at winning the close ones.

All that being said, this series is littered with surprising games involving spectacular scenarios and gallant heroes.

Could the next one be a confident youngster named Max Wittek?

It’s entirely possible.

Notre Dame has lived on the edge for much of the season. As Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State know all too well, undefeated seasons are elusive. And the pressure at the top of the BCS Standings this late in the season can be immense. Just ask the Wildcats.

The question here is if the thin Trojan offensive front can protect Wittek well enough for him to get the ball up in the air in the direction of Marqise Lee enough times. Or perhaps Wittek can rediscover somebody named Robert Woods, who Barkley lost touch with during the season.

Since “stuff” happens in this series, it’s tempting to call for the upset and more BCS chaos, especially since USC beat Notre Dame, 31-17, last season in South Bend. But what does that really mean anymore with Kiffin running the Trojan program into the ground? They beat Arizona, Oregon and UCLA last year, too.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 6

The pick: Notre Dame 28-20

2) No. 13 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson
Sat., Nov. 24 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

After a year of verbal fisticuffs by their head coaches, the Gamecocks and Tigers finally get to settle the matter on the field.

We prefer the jabs that’ll be traded by South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw and Clemson signalcaller Tajh Boyd, than the silly haymaker quotes tossed around by Steve Spurrier and Dabo Swinney.

Shaw was outstanding in last year’s matchup, passing for 210 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for a game-high 107 yards and a score.

Boyd appears to be gearing up for that sort of outing after falling flat last year in an 11-for-29 performance the yielded only 83 yards. Last week, he accounted for eight touchdowns (five through the air, three on the ground) in a 62-48 victory over North Carolina State, which got Clemson to 10 regular-season wins for the first time since 1981.

The Gamecocks need to come out on top against their bitter rivals to get their 10th victory and become the first team in school history post back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins.

The Tigers have won their past 13 games in Death Valley (yeah, Ballcoach, there are at least a couple of ‘em), so this call isn’t easy to make, but we can’t go against the Gamecock defense. It’ll come up with the stops when needed.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4

The pick: South Carolina 26-24

3) Auburn at No. 2 Alabama
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Well, well, well … what do we have here? Anyone willing to bet that Nick Saban’s squad won’t take full advantage of its second chance? We’re talking about the Crimson Tide’s next three games, not just this one.

It’s too bad this Iron Bowl is more like Tinfoil Bowl, considering the flimsy state of the Tiger program. Aside from that fact that it will feature direct national title implications for the fifth consecutive year, this incredibly nasty series has always been one of our favorites.

If Alabama weren’t playing its archrivals, there might be a chance that they’d have Georgia on their minds. Oh wait … they’d also have to be opposed by a halfway decent team.

There’s a stunning amount of lumber to chop at, but the Tigers really aren’t able to put up much resistance.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 34

The pick: Alabama 42-6

4) No. 6 Florida at No. 10 Florida State
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

It seems like forever since this series featured teams ranked in the Top 10 and in the thick of the BCS mix.

Both squads can credit their excellent defenses for making it to this point. Only the Seminoles, however, have an offense right now. The Gators have scored a total of only 73 points in their last four games.

Florida has a murky quarterback situation this week and its passing offense ranks last in the SEC and 114th in the nation. The Gators won’t get it done on the ground versus FSU, which leads the nation in rushing defense.

The Seminoles will patiently build a lead through three quarters. Then, when something has to happen in the final frame, the inept Gator offense will discover that taking chances against a Jimbo Fisher defense can really get you in trouble.

Opening point spread: Florida State by 7

The pick: Florida State 34-13

5) No. 22 Oklahoma State at No. 14 Oklahoma
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

In their last two games — against Baylor and West Virginia — the Sooners have yielded a total of 710 rushing yards. Oklahoma came out of both contests with the victory, but that’s simply a grotesque amount of yardage on the ground.

That’s not where you’d like to be when getting set to host an Oklahoma State team that’s fresh off a 59-21 dismantling of Texas Tech.

It doesn’t seem to matter who Mike Gundy puts behind center, so we’re tempted to ride with an upset here. But in the end, it’s too hard to go against Landry Jones in his last home game in a yard that the Cowboys haven’t won in since 2001.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 9

The pick: Oklahoma 38-34

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

No. 20 Michigan at No. 4 Ohio State
Sat., Nov. 24 — noon ET, ABC

It’s rivalry week, so all of the above qualifies to be considered for this spot, but if given the choice, relevancy is more important than rivalry when it comes to playing ball in Week 13.

Officially, these two archrivals have combined to win 76 Big Ten championships and 18 national championships, so this matchup usually has massive postseason implications attached.

Such is not the case for the on-probation Buckeyes this year, although they do have an undefeated record (and a petition).

This is a rivalry game — if not THE rivalry game — so we won’t make too big a deal out of this, but the extra incentive to put the cherry at the top of a 12-0 season is powerful. All that “us against the world” stuff goes a long way when things are pretty much even.

But in truth, Ohio State has enough tangible things going for it in this contest. Home-field advantage and a healthy offensive backfield are two of the biggies.

Opening point spread: Ohio State by 4 1/2

The pick: Ohio State 31-20

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

Kentucky at Tennessee
Sat., Nov. 24 — 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Once again, the USOTW prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

We’ll make no apologies for last week’s winning dog that came with a thin price. A win is a win.

This week, the ante is upped, riding a two-touchdown pup on Rocky Top, in a game matching a pair of teams still winless in SEC play.

Making the home team the favorite is understandable as they’ve been much more competitive within the league than the ‘Cats. But losing is losing and Tennessee’s psychology is fragile with the ousting of head coach Derek Dooley.

The Volunteers could rally with their leader gone, but why bother ruining the perfect conference slate they’ve put together?

Kentucky, which snapped a 26-game losing streak to Tennessee last year, might have a modicum of confidence after snapping its eight-game losing streak by trashing Samford last week.

Opening point spread: Tennessee by 14

The pick: Kentucky 38-34

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17 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 13”
  1. floridacock says: Nov 21, 2012 6:56 PM

    THE rivalry resides in the hearts of the fans of their particular team, NOT the best TV match-up. I could care less about Michigan / Ohio State. Clempson / Carolina is unmatched in the fervor and excitement it creates in the state of SC. GO COCKS!!!

  2. polegojim says: Nov 21, 2012 7:02 PM

    @florida… dream on Mr. Sunshine…

    GO BLUE!!! Bucknuts are going down with Garnder AND Robinson in the line up

  3. duklover says: Nov 21, 2012 7:11 PM

    What’s up John? No pick for Oregon vs Oregon State.

  4. dgbk says: Nov 21, 2012 7:15 PM

    florida st will score 34 pt?? even if the gators offense turn the ball over a bunch of times i dont see it. i dont believe any team scored 30+ on the gators this yr doubt it start saturday.

  5. houndofthebaskervols says: Nov 21, 2012 7:15 PM

    John, come on now. The Vols are a 14 pt favorite over KY Jelly, they just got their coach fired, and they are going up against arguably the worst OC in the country. I know, he used to work for Fulmer.

    Ahhhhh, you’re probably right. Who cares. LOL

  6. edwardst35 says: Nov 21, 2012 7:18 PM

    I don’t know what to say! I am overwhelmed by these really weird predictions from these EXPERIENCED EXPERTS! First….ND is going to SMEAR and WHACK USC and the red shirt mouth is going to be wearing band-aids on Sunday morning. All of a sudden Ohio State is going to get planted in the ground by a better DEFENSE……and Okla State is going to wish they couldn’t find transportation to Norman. Really guys……..you need to get more sleep and drink less beer.

  7. normtide says: Nov 21, 2012 7:33 PM

    I expect auburn to come out fired up against Bama. No reason for Chizik to leave any bullets in the gun.

  8. kiopta1 says: Nov 21, 2012 9:00 PM

    ND>USC
    Mich>OSU
    Noles>gators
    Clemson> SC
    Ok>OK St.
    Stan>UCLA

  9. frug says: Nov 21, 2012 10:35 PM

    No picks for UT-A&M, Mizzou-KU or Pitt-WVU? :(

  10. sssjim7 says: Nov 21, 2012 11:24 PM

    I think it is safe to say that the Georgia-Georgia Tech game will garner a lot of attention this weekend… and it may turn into a really good game. I woundn’t just give it to the Bulldogs…

    If Georgia Tech upsets Georgia… the chaos floodgates could open again… especially if Florida State and Clemson also win this weekend.

    IF (I know, a big IF) the ACC sweeps games with the SEC leaders, I could see Florida State jumping all the way up to #3 behind Alabama.

    Then how big would the SEC championship game be?

    Just my .02
    ~Jim

  11. 35longmiles says: Nov 22, 2012 10:03 AM

    By no means am I picking UF over FSU, but to completely ignore Florida’s advantage on special teams is ignorant. Florida has been pinning teams back and flipping the field all season.

    Florida hasn’t surrendered more than 20 points to any opponents this year, yet you are predicting 34 for FSU?

  12. lew24 says: Nov 22, 2012 3:09 PM

    @frug UT doesn’t play aTm anymore.

  13. frug says: Nov 22, 2012 6:24 PM

    @lew24

    Neither do KU and Mizzou or WVU and Pitt. I was lamenting lost rivalries.

  14. txnative61 says: Nov 23, 2012 12:39 AM

    @frug I appreciate your lament—and would add BYU Vs Utah. Others??

  15. frug says: Nov 23, 2012 2:16 AM

    @txnative61

    Off the top of my head I can think of Syracuse-Georgetown MBB starting next year.

    Also, OU-Nebraska (yeah, that was 15 years ago, but that was one of the 5 best rivalries in college football and I’m not sure I’ll ever get over it)

  16. omniusprime says: Nov 23, 2012 8:49 AM

    As to notre lame beating USC, don’t bet on it! Just because notre lame played a sissy schedule against cream puff teams doesn’t make this notre lame team unbeatable. USC is coming off a tough loss without Matt Barkley and they’ll have something to prove, to themselves and to the nation.

    Go USC!!!

  17. dkhhuey says: Nov 23, 2012 8:57 AM

    The Game is one of the greatest events in college football and has been for a very long time. Urban Meyer taking over the helm as head coach only amplifies that intensity! Devin Gardner will pay for burning Tressel’s offer letter tomorrow at the hands of Simon, Nate Williams, and Big Hank and Denard will end his college career with a bitter loss. I have flown in to Columbus to witness it in person!

    GO BUCKEYES!!!

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