Predictions 101 — Week 13

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We were thankful to go 4-3 straight and versus “the number” last week.

Staying above water on a Saturday like that wasn’t easy. We didn’t have the two upsets that had everyone clamoring, but we did have a pair of others that got the job done.

So it’s on to rivalry week and what makes college football so special. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, who seemingly play each other 75 times a year, the Fighting Irish and Trojans get this chance to go at each other but once a year.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thurs., Nov. 22, thru Sat., Nov. 24)

1) No. 1 Notre Dame at USC
Sat., Nov. 24 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Look at these teams now. The Fighting Irish, who were unranked in the preseason, are undefeated and No. 1 in the land. Top-ranked in the preseason, the Trojans are currently unranked after losing three of their last four.

Adding injury to insult, USC is without quarterback Matt Barkley, who got K.O.’d in the final minutes of last week’s 38-28 loss to UCLA with an injury to his right shoulder.

Yup, everything seems to be moving in the direction of the Irish. When you have a linebacker being mentioned as a legit Heisman Trophy contender, that point can’t be denied.

Furthermore, the discrepancy in coaching ability is astounding.

Lane Kiffin is bringing about the fall of Troy in spectacular fashion on and off the field. His father, Monte, hasn’t got a clue in the world how to stop an opposing offense.

That certainly isn’t the case in South Bend. Brian Kelly’s team leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.1 points per game, and the Irish are adept at winning the close ones.

All that being said, this series is littered with surprising games involving spectacular scenarios and gallant heroes.

Could the next one be a confident youngster named Max Wittek?

It’s entirely possible.

Notre Dame has lived on the edge for much of the season. As Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State know all too well, undefeated seasons are elusive. And the pressure at the top of the BCS Standings this late in the season can be immense. Just ask the Wildcats.

The question here is if the thin Trojan offensive front can protect Wittek well enough for him to get the ball up in the air in the direction of Marqise Lee enough times. Or perhaps Wittek can rediscover somebody named Robert Woods, who Barkley lost touch with during the season.

Since “stuff” happens in this series, it’s tempting to call for the upset and more BCS chaos, especially since USC beat Notre Dame, 31-17, last season in South Bend. But what does that really mean anymore with Kiffin running the Trojan program into the ground? They beat Arizona, Oregon and UCLA last year, too.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 6

The pick: Notre Dame 28-20

2) No. 13 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson
Sat., Nov. 24 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

After a year of verbal fisticuffs by their head coaches, the Gamecocks and Tigers finally get to settle the matter on the field.

We prefer the jabs that’ll be traded by South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw and Clemson signalcaller Tajh Boyd, than the silly haymaker quotes tossed around by Steve Spurrier and Dabo Swinney.

Shaw was outstanding in last year’s matchup, passing for 210 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for a game-high 107 yards and a score.

Boyd appears to be gearing up for that sort of outing after falling flat last year in an 11-for-29 performance the yielded only 83 yards. Last week, he accounted for eight touchdowns (five through the air, three on the ground) in a 62-48 victory over North Carolina State, which got Clemson to 10 regular-season wins for the first time since 1981.

The Gamecocks need to come out on top against their bitter rivals to get their 10th victory and become the first team in school history post back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins.

The Tigers have won their past 13 games in Death Valley (yeah, Ballcoach, there are at least a couple of ‘em), so this call isn’t easy to make, but we can’t go against the Gamecock defense. It’ll come up with the stops when needed.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4

The pick: South Carolina 26-24

3) Auburn at No. 2 Alabama
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Well, well, well … what do we have here? Anyone willing to bet that Nick Saban’s squad won’t take full advantage of its second chance? We’re talking about the Crimson Tide’s next three games, not just this one.

It’s too bad this Iron Bowl is more like Tinfoil Bowl, considering the flimsy state of the Tiger program. Aside from that fact that it will feature direct national title implications for the fifth consecutive year, this incredibly nasty series has always been one of our favorites.

If Alabama weren’t playing its archrivals, there might be a chance that they’d have Georgia on their minds. Oh wait … they’d also have to be opposed by a halfway decent team.

There’s a stunning amount of lumber to chop at, but the Tigers really aren’t able to put up much resistance.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 34

The pick: Alabama 42-6

4) No. 6 Florida at No. 10 Florida State
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

It seems like forever since this series featured teams ranked in the Top 10 and in the thick of the BCS mix.

Both squads can credit their excellent defenses for making it to this point. Only the Seminoles, however, have an offense right now. The Gators have scored a total of only 73 points in their last four games.

Florida has a murky quarterback situation this week and its passing offense ranks last in the SEC and 114th in the nation. The Gators won’t get it done on the ground versus FSU, which leads the nation in rushing defense.

The Seminoles will patiently build a lead through three quarters. Then, when something has to happen in the final frame, the inept Gator offense will discover that taking chances against a Jimbo Fisher defense can really get you in trouble.

Opening point spread: Florida State by 7

The pick: Florida State 34-13

5) No. 22 Oklahoma State at No. 14 Oklahoma
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

In their last two games — against Baylor and West Virginia — the Sooners have yielded a total of 710 rushing yards. Oklahoma came out of both contests with the victory, but that’s simply a grotesque amount of yardage on the ground.

That’s not where you’d like to be when getting set to host an Oklahoma State team that’s fresh off a 59-21 dismantling of Texas Tech.

It doesn’t seem to matter who Mike Gundy puts behind center, so we’re tempted to ride with an upset here. But in the end, it’s too hard to go against Landry Jones in his last home game in a yard that the Cowboys haven’t won in since 2001.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 9

The pick: Oklahoma 38-34

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

No. 20 Michigan at No. 4 Ohio State
Sat., Nov. 24 — noon ET, ABC

It’s rivalry week, so all of the above qualifies to be considered for this spot, but if given the choice, relevancy is more important than rivalry when it comes to playing ball in Week 13.

Officially, these two archrivals have combined to win 76 Big Ten championships and 18 national championships, so this matchup usually has massive postseason implications attached.

Such is not the case for the on-probation Buckeyes this year, although they do have an undefeated record (and a petition).

This is a rivalry game — if not THE rivalry game — so we won’t make too big a deal out of this, but the extra incentive to put the cherry at the top of a 12-0 season is powerful. All that “us against the world” stuff goes a long way when things are pretty much even.

But in truth, Ohio State has enough tangible things going for it in this contest. Home-field advantage and a healthy offensive backfield are two of the biggies.

Opening point spread: Ohio State by 4 1/2

The pick: Ohio State 31-20

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

Kentucky at Tennessee
Sat., Nov. 24 — 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Once again, the USOTW prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

We’ll make no apologies for last week’s winning dog that came with a thin price. A win is a win.

This week, the ante is upped, riding a two-touchdown pup on Rocky Top, in a game matching a pair of teams still winless in SEC play.

Making the home team the favorite is understandable as they’ve been much more competitive within the league than the ‘Cats. But losing is losing and Tennessee’s psychology is fragile with the ousting of head coach Derek Dooley.

The Volunteers could rally with their leader gone, but why bother ruining the perfect conference slate they’ve put together?

Kentucky, which snapped a 26-game losing streak to Tennessee last year, might have a modicum of confidence after snapping its eight-game losing streak by trashing Samford last week.

Opening point spread: Tennessee by 14

The pick: Kentucky 38-34

AP

What do coaches always say to quarterbacks? You better be able to make all the throws in your playbook blindfolded?

Johnny Manziel says “challenge accepted.”

Known more for his improv ability, the Heisman Trophy winner showed off his throwing accuracy as well during a “Zorro drill” while training with quarterback guru George Whitfield Jr. Blindfolded, Manziel tossed just two uncatchable balls out of 29 attempts. Not too shabby.

“I have always said he has the best antenna in football,” Whitfield said. “I think he just proved that.”

And if anyone needs anymore proof, here’s a video of one of the passes.

It might not be on the level of a trick shot video, but it’s impressive nevertheless.

(Hat tip: Fort Worth Star-Telegram) 

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Tragically, the Little Casears Pizza Bowl and its accompanying mascots (pictured) are likely no more. At least when it comes to its current venue.

According to ESPN’s Brett McMurphy, the Detroit Lions are expected to create and operate their own bowl game that will be played at Ford Field beginning in 2014. The unnamed bowl would match teams from the ACC and Big Ten rather than the Big Ten and MAC, which is the current tie-in setup for the Pizza Bowl.

Et tu, Detroit?

The ACC and Big Ten are already headed toward a Pinstripe Bowl matchup with many bowl contracts expiring after the 2013 season. Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany has made a point that he plans on emphasizing more attractive bowl matchups in the future and the Little Casesars Pizza Bowl has been far down the conference’s pecking order. Where this new bowl places on the Big Ten’s new lineup remains to be seen, but an ACC opponent would be an upgrade.

Conversely, the loser in this scenario, should it come to fruition, would be the MAC. And anyone who loves Little Caesars. Bowl officials told the Detroit Free Press that the game could be moved to Comerica Park in Detroit, but it’s overall future appears to be very much in doubt.

AP

Tight end Jake Golic (pictured left) never made much of an impact on the field for Notre Dame. That’s understandable considering he sat behind guys like Tyler Eifert and Kyle Rudolph. Now, the son of former Irish and NFL defensive lineman Mike Golic will spend his final year of eligibility somewhere else.

Mike Golic said on ESPN’s “Mike and Mike” that his son will transfer to Cincinnati as a grad student and be eligible to play right away. Officially, UC cannot comment on the transfer until he enrolls. The Bearcats are looking to replace the productivity of Travis Kelce, who was taken in the third round of last month’s NFL draft by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Golic will rejoin former Notre Dame teammate Gunner Kiel at Cincinnati. The quarterback was added to UC’s roster last month.

AP

With 100 days left before the start of the college football season, the watch lists are already underway. Yesterday, the preseason Rimington Trophy watch list was released. There are 44 eligible linemen on this year’s list with 17 players returning from last year’s watch list.

Of the 44, nine players are from the SEC, while the PAC-12 and Mountain West Conference each have five candidates listed. Last year’s winner was Barrett Jones from Alabama (pictured).

David Andrews, Jr., Georgia
Russell Bodine, Jr., North Carolina
Evan Boehm, So., Missouri
Jake Brendel, So., UCLA
Betim Bujari, Jr., Rutgers
Ben Clarke, So., Hawaii
Sean Conway, Sr., Western Kentucky
Dillon Day, Jr., Mississippi State
Reese Dismukes, Jr., Auburn
Dominic Espinosa, Jr., Texas
Dillon Farrell, Sr., New Mexico
Jay Finch, Sr., Georgia Tech
B.J. Finney, Jr., Kansas State
Matt Galas, Jr.,  Nevada
Bryce Giddens, So., Arkansas State
Hroniss Grasu, Jr., Oregon
Gus Handler, Sr., Colorado
Jonotthan Harrison, Jr., Florida
Andre Huval, Sr., Louisiana-Lafayette
Gabe Ikard, Sr., Oklahoma
Travis Jackson, Jr., Michigan State
David Kekuewa, Jr., Bowling Green
Ryan Kelly, So., Alabama
Zac Kerin, Sr., Toledo
Kody Koebensky, Sr., Arizona State
Tyler Larsen, Sr., Utah State
Taylor Lasecki, So., SMU
Corey Linsley, Jr., Ohio State
Macky MacPherson, Sr., Syracuse
Mike Marboe, Jr., Idaho
Shane McDermott, Jr., Miami
Cole Pensick, Sr., Nebraska
Ryan Powis, Jr., Army
Bryce Redman, Jr., Houston
Austin Reiter, Jr., USF
Weston Richburg, Jr., Colorado State
Isaac Seumalo, Sr., Oregon State
James Stone, Sr., Tennessee
Bryan Stork, Sr., Florida State
Travis Swanson, Sr., Arkansas
Evan Swindall, Sr., Mississippi
Valerian Ume-Ezeoke, Jr., New Mexico State
Brandon Vitabile, Jr., Northwestern
Robert Waterman, Jr., UNLV

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Some links from around college football on a Tuesday… 

• Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are reaching out to help the victims of yesterday’s devastating tornado.
• Are coaches keeping the potential for multiyear scholarships a secret from athletes? An interesting read here from the Chronicle of Higher Education.
• The Sports Business Journal asks if the ACC is late to the conference network party.
• Speaking of the ACC, Maryland’s 2014 game against Virginia Tech at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium is on hold for now.
• The Washington Post has obtained the documents in the ACC-Maryland dismissal hearing.
• Bill O’Brien will be featured on Tuesday night’s episode of “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel” on HBO. It sounds like it’ll be worth viewing if you get the channel.
• Indiana got a late addition from a 320-pound offensive lineman.
• The pretrial hearing for Washington tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been delayed.
• A lot of rumors are circulating about Notre Dame commit Eddie Vanderdoes.
• Alabama’s shattered BCS trophy is still worth a pretty penny apparently.

The Military Bowl is getting a venue change, and a slightly more appropriate one at that.

With the announcement Monday that Conference USA added a tie-in to the Military Bowl came the official news that the bowl would be moving from RFK Memorial Stadium in Washington D.C. to Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis where the Naval Academy plays its home football games.

Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post and ESPN’s Brett McMurphy reported the move earlier Monday morning. The game, previously known as the EagleBank Bowl until 2010, has been held at RFK stadium since it’s beginnings in 2008.

The game will select last in the ACC’s bowl lineup and give C-USA six bowl tie-ins in 2013. However, Navy is not precluded from playing in the bowl despite the fact it will now be held at the Academy’s home site.

The Midshipmen lost the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in 2008 to Wake Forest.

(Photo: NavySports.com) 

AP

Less than a month after granted his release from Arkansas, quarterback Brandon Mitchell has found a new home to finish his collegiate career.

Mitchell told ESPN’s Joe Schad he has decided to enroll at North Carolina State for his final year of eligibility.

“I like the culture, coaches, expectations within the program starting all the way at the top, and most importantly chemistry,” Mitchell told Schad. “I felt I built it with players in just three days. Bottom line is I want to win, and I want to win now. They have the best opportunity there for success and just had one missing piece.”

Because Mitchell is graduating from Arkansas this year, he will be eligible to play immediately. With the departure of Mike Glennon, Mitchell should have an opportunity to compete for the Wolfpack’s starting quarterback job, though Mitchell could play the role of an offensive athlete as well.

Either way, Mitchell will join former Florida QB Jacoby Brissett, who transferred to NC State earlier this year.

Reuters

Suspended for spring practice for violating team rules, Alabama wide receiver Danny Woodson will transfer to another in-state school.

Per al.com, Woodson will transfer to South Alabama. Jaguars coach Joey Jones confirmed the move during Sun Belt spring meetings.

“We’re very excited about having Danny Woodson at South Alabama,” Jones said. “I really admired his play in high school and we wanted him very badly out of high school. Of course we understood when he signed with Alabama. But we believe we have a potential All-America-type receiver coming here and we’re obviously very excited.”

Woodson, a former four-star receiver for the Tide, had one catch for nine yards in six games last year. He redshirted his freshman season in 2011 and must sit out a year to satisfy NCAA transfer rules.

AP

As John noted late last week, three of Wes Lunt‘s five possible transfer destinations – Southern Miss, Tennessee and Vanderbilt — were reportedly deemed off-limits at the discretion of Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy. That left Lunt with two schools — Louisville and Illinois — to consider out of his original five.

According to ESPN’s Joe Schad, Lunt has already taken an unofficial visit to Illinois. Schad writes that Lunt feels comfortable with offensive coordinator Bill Cubit‘s offense and has a good relationship with Illini coach Tim Beckman. But while a visit to Champaign was expected for Lunt, the reasons behind Gundy’s decision to block certain schools from the QB’s transfer wish list have been more vague. That’s where Schad provides some clarity.

Schad reports that reasons for the restrictions include:

• That Lunt allegedly cited a desire to transfer “closer to home” and that those blocked schools are not “closer to home.”
• The belief that at least some coaches at some interested schools improperly contacted Lunt.
• The possibility Oklahoma State could face some of the blocked conferences in a bowl game.

If true, it would shed some light on why Gundy did what he did. Of course, it still looks bad for Gundy given that he’s just months removed from being a reported candidate for both the Arkansas and Tennessee jobs. And, for clarification purposes, Lunt can transfer wherever he wants; getting a grant-in-aid during his first year at his new school is what’s at stake.

Generally speaking, the fact that a coach can go from job to job with no consequence (outside of a buyout) while placing restrictions on players is ridiculous. The NCAA is providing some help to give athletes immediate eligibility in more pressing cases, though it has no bearing on those restrictions.

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Larry Scott made a big splash as Pac-12 commissioner when he landed a multi-billion television deal for his conference that will make it among the richest in college athletics.

In that vein, Scott has upstaged his own league. Citing tax records, the Wall Street Journal reports Scott made over $3 million for the 2011-12 year. That amount would apparently make him the highest paid commissioner at the college level. Scott’s total salary of $3,022,462 breaks down into $1,575,000 in base salary, $1,376,000 from a bonus and additional compensation of $71,462.

For reference, that’s a couple hundred thousand more than Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany and about twice as much as SEC commish Mike Slive.

But who’s counting?

Can’t say it’s not deserved, though. Scott has done a tremendous job with the Pac-12′s exposure over the last few years.

AP

Miami’s response to its Notice of Allegations is due today  as the university heads toward a June hearing in front of the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions. The program hasn’t suppressed its feelings about the NCAA’s investigation, however. UM president Donna Shalala has called for no additional sanctions beyond the ones self-imposed by the school and a motion to dismiss the case was reportedly filed in March.

Most of that, of course, stems from the fact that the investigation reached FUBAR status earlier this year when the NCAA revealed it had to investigate itself due to improper conduct by its enforcement staff.

Now, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports an unnamed former Hurricanes assistant is pointing fingers as well, although this time at the SEC.

Here’s what Jackson noted in his Sunday column:

One former UM coach accused of wrongdoings complained privately that what the ex-UM coaches allegedly did paled in comparison to unreported violations committed in the SEC.

Without any names or examples, it’s hard to take that kind of cliché accusation seriously. Or, perhaps SEC programs followed Andy Staples‘ seven steps to successful cheating. Besides, it’s UM that’s under the microscope here, not the SEC. Attempting call someone else out isn’t going to change anything.

What could change the direction of this case, though, is if Miami provides enough evidence to support its case being tossed now that its response to the NOA has reportedly been filed.

Meandering our way through the offseason, a single one-liner at a time…

– Anderson Independent Mail: Clemson’s Sammy Watkins enters ’13 as ACC, national receiver to beat.

– The Sun Belt Conference has unveiled a new logo, motto.

– The Birmingham News reminds us that the Alabama Sports Hall of Fame’s Class of 2013 is not just about Nick Saban.

– For what it’s worth, Spartans middle linebacker Max Bullough garnered the most votes in an mlive.com poll that asked “Which Michigan State or Michigan football player would you pick first?”

– Chuck Landon of the Huntington Herald-Dispatch has an interesting view on Twitter seemingly taking over the sports universe.

– In what should serve as hopeful news for Vol Nation, head coach Butch Jones is going nonstop when it comes to beefing up recruiting at Tennessee.

– The Daily Oklahoman takes note of Oklahoma State’s looking to make recruiting inroads out West.

– Is Oklahoma looking to go tall at the wide receiver position on the recruiting trail?

– Arizona Republic: Former Arizona State quarterback Andrew Walter gave signals that he might be suited for politics.

AP

An incident that occurred last weekend has left the future of one member of the UT-San Antonio football program up in the air.

According to multiple media outlets, running back CheRod Simpson was arrested last Friday night and hit with multiple charges.  Those charges include resisting arrest, criminal trespass, public intoxication and disorderly conduct.

KABB-TV writes that the player was arrested “after allegedly getting aggressive with police while trespassing at the Aspen Heights Apartments near the UTSA campus.”

Simpson’s father, 53-year-old Rodney Simpson, was arrested in the incident as well, which involved a pool and a pair of off-duty San Antonio police officers working security at the apartment complex.

“We are aware of the matter regarding one of our football student-athletes and will address it accordingly, based on a full review of the incident,” UTSA head coach Larry Coker said in a statement.

In 2012, Simpson rushed for 78 yards on 22 carries.  He’s played in 22 games the past two seasons for the Roadrunners, which made the jump to the FBS level last season.  UTSA will move from the football-defunct WAC to Conference USA in 2013.

AP

In early November of last year, Ivan McCartney was the second West Virginia wide receiver in a span of four days to leave the football program.

A half a year later, the wayward receiving son has returned home.

Dana Holgorsen confirmed to the Charleston Daily Mail that McCartney is back with the team and will be given the opportunity to make amends for whatever led to his initial departure.  The head coach, though, doesn’t exactly sound optimistic that the return will stick.

“Second chances are few and far between,” the said coach told the Daily Mail. “This kid’s got an opportunity to right the ship. Maybe he makes the best of it. Maybe he doesn’t.”

Holgorsen added that McCartney, a high school teammate of Geno Smith, has been back home in Florida, and that individuals from his high school had reached out to him about a possible return.

A four-star member of WVU’s 2010 recruiting class and a U.S. Army All-American, McCartney was rated as the No. 5 receiver in the country and the No. 5 player at any position in the talent-rich state of Florida.  The 6-2, 183-pound receiver played in 33 games during his first stint in Morgantown, totaling 59 receptions for 701 yards and three touchdowns.

As they have every year since 2007, several former Michigan football players returned to Ann Arbor for a charity near and dear to their collective hearts.  And, as is ofttimes the case, the group surpassed the seven-figure mark yet again.

In a series of events dubbed “Champions for Children’s Hearts,” ex-Wolverines Brian Griese, Steve Hutchinson (pictured) and Charles Woodson helped raise more than $1 million that will be earmarked for Mott Children’s Hospital in Ann Arbor.  The events included a Mott Takeover radiothon on WTKA-AM, auction, $1,000-a-plate dinner Saturday night and a golf outing Sunday.

Both current and former members of the football program were involved in the charity, whose goal is to make Mott the top children’s hospital in the country.

“Our goal would be to make Mott No. 1,” Hutchinson said according to mlive.com. “It’s top 10 in the country for children’s hospitals — our goal would be to get it No. 1. Michigan’s trying to be No. 1 in everything. The hospital, we want it No. 1.

“I don’t think we could have ever imagined the amount of money we take in every year now. We’re over $1 million every year — for a one tournament and one night gala, it’s crazy.”

Or, as UM athletic director Dave Brandon, whose saw the lives of his twin sons and a grandchild saved by the hospital, put it, “Whatever Mott wants, Mott gets, as far as I’m concerned.”

Kudos to the entire Michigan football program and community for their tireless efforts for such a worthy cause.

(Photo credit: University of Michigan)