Predictions 101 — Week 13

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We were thankful to go 4-3 straight and versus “the number” last week.

Staying above water on a Saturday like that wasn’t easy. We didn’t have the two upsets that had everyone clamoring, but we did have a pair of others that got the job done.

So it’s on to rivalry week and what makes college football so special. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, who seemingly play each other 75 times a year, the Fighting Irish and Trojans get this chance to go at each other but once a year.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thurs., Nov. 22, thru Sat., Nov. 24)

1) No. 1 Notre Dame at USC
Sat., Nov. 24 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Look at these teams now. The Fighting Irish, who were unranked in the preseason, are undefeated and No. 1 in the land. Top-ranked in the preseason, the Trojans are currently unranked after losing three of their last four.

Adding injury to insult, USC is without quarterback Matt Barkley, who got K.O.’d in the final minutes of last week’s 38-28 loss to UCLA with an injury to his right shoulder.

Yup, everything seems to be moving in the direction of the Irish. When you have a linebacker being mentioned as a legit Heisman Trophy contender, that point can’t be denied.

Furthermore, the discrepancy in coaching ability is astounding.

Lane Kiffin is bringing about the fall of Troy in spectacular fashion on and off the field. His father, Monte, hasn’t got a clue in the world how to stop an opposing offense.

That certainly isn’t the case in South Bend. Brian Kelly’s team leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.1 points per game, and the Irish are adept at winning the close ones.

All that being said, this series is littered with surprising games involving spectacular scenarios and gallant heroes.

Could the next one be a confident youngster named Max Wittek?

It’s entirely possible.

Notre Dame has lived on the edge for much of the season. As Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State know all too well, undefeated seasons are elusive. And the pressure at the top of the BCS Standings this late in the season can be immense. Just ask the Wildcats.

The question here is if the thin Trojan offensive front can protect Wittek well enough for him to get the ball up in the air in the direction of Marqise Lee enough times. Or perhaps Wittek can rediscover somebody named Robert Woods, who Barkley lost touch with during the season.

Since “stuff” happens in this series, it’s tempting to call for the upset and more BCS chaos, especially since USC beat Notre Dame, 31-17, last season in South Bend. But what does that really mean anymore with Kiffin running the Trojan program into the ground? They beat Arizona, Oregon and UCLA last year, too.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 6

The pick: Notre Dame 28-20

2) No. 13 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson
Sat., Nov. 24 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

After a year of verbal fisticuffs by their head coaches, the Gamecocks and Tigers finally get to settle the matter on the field.

We prefer the jabs that’ll be traded by South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw and Clemson signalcaller Tajh Boyd, than the silly haymaker quotes tossed around by Steve Spurrier and Dabo Swinney.

Shaw was outstanding in last year’s matchup, passing for 210 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for a game-high 107 yards and a score.

Boyd appears to be gearing up for that sort of outing after falling flat last year in an 11-for-29 performance the yielded only 83 yards. Last week, he accounted for eight touchdowns (five through the air, three on the ground) in a 62-48 victory over North Carolina State, which got Clemson to 10 regular-season wins for the first time since 1981.

The Gamecocks need to come out on top against their bitter rivals to get their 10th victory and become the first team in school history post back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins.

The Tigers have won their past 13 games in Death Valley (yeah, Ballcoach, there are at least a couple of ‘em), so this call isn’t easy to make, but we can’t go against the Gamecock defense. It’ll come up with the stops when needed.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 4

The pick: South Carolina 26-24

3) Auburn at No. 2 Alabama
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Well, well, well … what do we have here? Anyone willing to bet that Nick Saban’s squad won’t take full advantage of its second chance? We’re talking about the Crimson Tide’s next three games, not just this one.

It’s too bad this Iron Bowl is more like Tinfoil Bowl, considering the flimsy state of the Tiger program. Aside from that fact that it will feature direct national title implications for the fifth consecutive year, this incredibly nasty series has always been one of our favorites.

If Alabama weren’t playing its archrivals, there might be a chance that they’d have Georgia on their minds. Oh wait … they’d also have to be opposed by a halfway decent team.

There’s a stunning amount of lumber to chop at, but the Tigers really aren’t able to put up much resistance.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 34

The pick: Alabama 42-6

4) No. 6 Florida at No. 10 Florida State
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

It seems like forever since this series featured teams ranked in the Top 10 and in the thick of the BCS mix.

Both squads can credit their excellent defenses for making it to this point. Only the Seminoles, however, have an offense right now. The Gators have scored a total of only 73 points in their last four games.

Florida has a murky quarterback situation this week and its passing offense ranks last in the SEC and 114th in the nation. The Gators won’t get it done on the ground versus FSU, which leads the nation in rushing defense.

The Seminoles will patiently build a lead through three quarters. Then, when something has to happen in the final frame, the inept Gator offense will discover that taking chances against a Jimbo Fisher defense can really get you in trouble.

Opening point spread: Florida State by 7

The pick: Florida State 34-13

5) No. 22 Oklahoma State at No. 14 Oklahoma
Sat., Nov. 24 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

In their last two games — against Baylor and West Virginia — the Sooners have yielded a total of 710 rushing yards. Oklahoma came out of both contests with the victory, but that’s simply a grotesque amount of yardage on the ground.

That’s not where you’d like to be when getting set to host an Oklahoma State team that’s fresh off a 59-21 dismantling of Texas Tech.

It doesn’t seem to matter who Mike Gundy puts behind center, so we’re tempted to ride with an upset here. But in the end, it’s too hard to go against Landry Jones in his last home game in a yard that the Cowboys haven’t won in since 2001.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 9

The pick: Oklahoma 38-34

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

No. 20 Michigan at No. 4 Ohio State
Sat., Nov. 24 — noon ET, ABC

It’s rivalry week, so all of the above qualifies to be considered for this spot, but if given the choice, relevancy is more important than rivalry when it comes to playing ball in Week 13.

Officially, these two archrivals have combined to win 76 Big Ten championships and 18 national championships, so this matchup usually has massive postseason implications attached.

Such is not the case for the on-probation Buckeyes this year, although they do have an undefeated record (and a petition).

This is a rivalry game — if not THE rivalry game — so we won’t make too big a deal out of this, but the extra incentive to put the cherry at the top of a 12-0 season is powerful. All that “us against the world” stuff goes a long way when things are pretty much even.

But in truth, Ohio State has enough tangible things going for it in this contest. Home-field advantage and a healthy offensive backfield are two of the biggies.

Opening point spread: Ohio State by 4 1/2

The pick: Ohio State 31-20

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

Kentucky at Tennessee
Sat., Nov. 24 — 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Once again, the USOTW prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

We’ll make no apologies for last week’s winning dog that came with a thin price. A win is a win.

This week, the ante is upped, riding a two-touchdown pup on Rocky Top, in a game matching a pair of teams still winless in SEC play.

Making the home team the favorite is understandable as they’ve been much more competitive within the league than the ‘Cats. But losing is losing and Tennessee’s psychology is fragile with the ousting of head coach Derek Dooley.

The Volunteers could rally with their leader gone, but why bother ruining the perfect conference slate they’ve put together?

Kentucky, which snapped a 26-game losing streak to Tennessee last year, might have a modicum of confidence after snapping its eight-game losing streak by trashing Samford last week.

Opening point spread: Tennessee by 14

The pick: Kentucky 38-34

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Um, wow.

Just two months after the player Notre Dame recruited to be its quarterback of the future left the football program, the Irish’s quarterback of the recent past, present and presumably foreseeable future has apparently responded in kind.

According to multiple media outlets, and subsequently confirmed by the school, starting QB Everett Golson is no longer enrolled at Notre Dame.  No reason was given for the non-enrollment, and there was no immediate word on what if any future Golson has with the Irish football program.

“Federal and school privacy laws preclude us from issuing any further comment at this time,” a statement from the school read.

The move, especially if permanent, is beyond shocking.

Golson, in his first season as the Irish’s No. 1 quarterback, started 11 of the 12 games in which he played in leading Notre Dame to its first unbeaten regular season in more than two decades.  The lone loss with Golson starting under center came against Alabama in the BCS title game.

Both entering and exiting spring, Golson remained the presumptive front-runner for the starting job in 2013.  So much was Golson’s stranglehold on the job, in fact, that it played a significant role in former five-star recruit Gunner Kiel‘s decision to leave the Irish for Cincinnati prior to the start of spring practice.

Where this leaves the Irish at the most important position on the field remains to be seen.

And, obviously, we’ll have more on this out-of-nowhere story as it develops.

UPDATED 11:57 p.m. ET: In a bit of a clarification as to what reportedly led to Golson no longer being enrolled at Notre Dame, Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune wrote on Twitter that “an academic violation [is] behind the QB no longer being enrolled at #NotreDame, per sources.”

While the rumors of what exact academic violation Golson may have committed has been bandied about the vast expanse of the Internet, we’ll wait until something a little more concrete surfaces before diving into that end of the speculative pool.

After a handful of weeks of talk and speculation, what was supposed to happen in Vegas will indeed stay in Vegas.

In a press release sent out Friday, UNLV confirmed that its Sept. 7 game against Arizona this year will go off as scheduled in Las Vegas.  The two schools, along with Russ Potts Productions and Sam Boyd Stadium managers Global Spectrum, had been in negotiations about moving the game to a “neutral site” — University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is less than a two-hour drive from the Wildcats’ Tucson campus.

UNLV athletic director Jim Livengood said in a statement that the university was approached a promoter, Russ Potts Production, about moving the game.  In the end, the numbers simply didn’t add up and the game will be played as scheduled in Las Vegas.

“[E]veryone was great in trying to make this thing work,” Livengood’s statement began. “We just couldn’t get the numbers to match up and in the end everyone agreed it would be best to keep the game here. We are excited to have seven home games this fall and that the Rebels will be opening up at Sam Boyd Stadium against a Pac-12 opponent.”

The rebels are scheduled to travel to the Wildcats to open the 2014 season Aug. 30.  It’s assumed that game will go off when and where it was originally planned as well.

AP

Meandering our way through the offseason, a single one-liner at a time…

– The Phillip Sims “situation” at Virginia could be winding to its conclusion, one way or another.

– The mother of Donte Newsome, the Marshall football player shot and killed outside of a Huntington nightclub in 2008, not entitled to compensation for her son’s unpaid student loans, the West Virginia Supreme Court ruled.

– Keep your NCAA dos-and-don’ts manual at the ready: it’s Big Cat Weekend once again at Auburn.

– Michigan State looking for somebody, anybody, to step up at the tight end position.

– Speaking of tight ends, that’s one of the biggest question marks on Colorado’s depth chart.

– Given the impression he’s making on the local high school circuit, maybe first-year Buffs head coach Mike MacIntyre can improve that position without going far from home.

– Improvements at the football stadium part of the planned facility upgrades at Western Michigan.

– In non-football news*, Michigan kicker Brendan Gibbons is on the verge of breaking the program’s all-time record for most consecutive field goals made.

(*it’s a joke; lighten up)

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Less than a week after leaving Texas Tech, Delvon Simmons already has one visit under his belt and another in the offing.

According to Bruce Feldman of CBSSports.com, the defensive lineman will take a trip to Miami this weekend and visit the Hurricanes.  Last weekend, Simmons visited USC, which was one of his finalists coming out of high school a couple of years ago.

Simmons is also reportedly interested in a pair of FBS programs from his home state of Pennsylvania — Penn State and Pittsburgh.  There’s been no official word yet on if/when a visit to one or both of those schools will take place.

A four-star member of North Carolina’s 2011 recruiting class and rated as the No. 1 player in Pennsylvania at any position, Simmons was released from his Tar Heels scholarship a little over a month after National Signing Day and ultimately landed at Texas Tech.  He started all 13 games for the Red Raiders in 2012 after playing in 10 games as a true freshman in 2011.

Simmons, who will be forced to sit out the 2013 season if he stays at the FBS level, will have two years to use two seasons of eligibility beginning in 2014.

Instead of focusing on preparing and rehabbing for what will be his final season of college football, Dyron Dye will be forced to prep for a meeting with the NCAA.  Again.

Citing a source close to the situation, the Miami Herald is reporting that the Miami defensive lineman will be interviewed by the NCAA regarding the investigation by the sport’s “governing body” into the Hurricanes football program.  This latest meeting, expected to take place at some point this coming week, will be Dye’s third with the NCAA in relation to the Nevin Shapiro scandal.

Because of this latest sit-down, Dye has retained counsel.  While the NCAA is seeking to have what they perceive to be a contradictory affidavit from Dye clarified, it also appears that the player may have others willing to submit their own corroboration for what Dye has previously sworn under oath.  From the paper’s report:

…the governing body of college sports believes an affidavit signed by Dye that supports ex-UM receivers coach Aubrey Hill contradicts statements made in at least one of Dye’s former interviews, a source close to the situation told The Miami Herald.

The Herald also learned that former UM quarterback Jacory Harris wrote an affidavit referencing Hill and supporting some of the statements made in Dye’s affidavit. An affidavit is a sworn statement made under oath.

The source said there are other former UM players who are also prepared to corroborate what Dye stated in his affidavit.

Dye was suspended for the four games of the 2011 season in connection to his involvement in the Shapiro scandal.  It was shown by the NCAA in August of that year that Dye received from Shapiro and “UM athletics personnel” $738 in impermissible benefits during a recruitment that led to the player signing on as part of the Hurricanes’ 2009 recruiting class.  Those benefits included five nights of impermissible lodging from institutional staff during their unofficial visits — an allegation directly tied to Hill — transportation, multiple meals and entertainment at a gentleman’s club.

With the suspension served and monetary restitution made, Dye returned to play in six games in what was his redshirt sophomore season after making the switch from the defensive line to tight end.  He then played 12 games at that position in 2012.

Dye moved back to the line following the 2012 season.  He suffered an Achilles injury during the first scrimmage this past spring and is out indefinitely, leaving his status for the 2013 season up in the air even prior to this latest attempt by the NCAA to save some type of face in what’s gone well beyond a FUBAR situation.

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The Middle Tennessee State football program has been hit with some personnel attrition a couple of months ahead of its official move from the Sun Belt to Conference USA, head coach Rick Stockstill confirmed Thursday.

According to Stockstill, quarterback Shaun White and offensive lineman Roberto Loya have been dismissed from the Blue Raiders team.  As is ofttimes the case, the publicly stated reason for the twin dismissals is violations of unspecified team rules.

“It’s an honor and a privilege to be on this football team and represent Middle Tennessee,” Stockstill said in a statement. “Our program has high standards both on and off the playing field and Shaun and Roberto will not be with us after failing to live up to those expectations. We wish both players well in their future endeavors.”

Both White and Loya were listed as backups at their respective positions.  The former played in four games last season as a redshirt freshman while the latter played in all 12 games, mostly on special teams.

Even more damaging than those dismissals, though, is the loss of a player due to injury.

Part-time starting Justin Jones (pictured), Stockstill, said, will miss the 2013 season due to a toe injury suffered during spring practice.  The surgery and subsequent rehab will keep him away from football for up to eight months, sidelining the player for what would’ve been his senior season.

“Justin has to undergo surgery which will require him to be out for six to eight months,” MTSU coach Rick Stockstill said. “He has been a valuable member of this program the past four years, and we wish him a very speedy recovery.”

Jones started 11 of the 37 games he played during his MTSU career.  He was on track to earn a starting job until the spring injury derailed what was left of his collegiate career.

AP

But of course.

A member of the Nebraska football program, defensive end Avery Moss (pictured, No. 94), has a trial date set for late July for an incident that occurred late last year, the Omaha World-Herald is reporting.  Moss is facing a July 23 bench trial on charges of public indecency, disturbing the peace and failing to appear.

The soon-to-be sophomore has pleaded not guilty to the three charges, all of which are considered misdemeanors.  The failure-to-appear charge stemmed from a missed court date back in January

In mid-December, a female employee of a convenience store accused Moss of twice exposing himself to her in the span of four hours.  The alleged victim filed a complaint with the university police department, and subsequently picked Moss out of a photo lineup.

Cornhuskers head coach Bo Pelini is aware of the situation involving Moss, who could face up to six months in jail if convicted.

As a three-star member of NU’s 2012 recruiting class, Moss played in three games before using his redshirt as a true freshman due to a shoulder injury.  Moss was expected to continue competing for a starting job in summer camp, although it’s unclear what if any impact his legal situation will have on that front.

Meandering our way through the offseason, a single one-liner at a time…

– Washington Post: No ruling in ACC’s motion for dismissal of Maryland lawsuit.

– Tulsa World: College transfer rule that limited Wes Lunt must be changed.

– Athletic director Mark Hollis explains Michigan State’s process that resulted in the hiring of Mark Dantonio.

– Here’s a position-by-position recap of Auburn’s spring, courtesy of al.com.

– The Iowa City Press-Citizen takes a look at how Big Ten realignment will impact fans’ pocketbooks.

– Virginia Tech’s trip to the Russell Athletic Bowl cost over $1.6 million, but the athletic department still expects to come out in the black financially.

– Syracuse’s post-spring depth chart reveals some position changes.

– UT-San Antonio head coach Larry Coker lauded by the Texas legislature.

– USC All-American receiver Marqise Lee fails to advance beyond the semifinals in the long jump at the NCAA West Regionals.

– Snoop Lion/Dogg’s football-playing son receives another offer, this one from LSU.

– Clemson’s pruning of the Peach State on the recruiting trail is setting up a solid football future for the Tigers.

– Ohio State lands an in-state verbal commitment from four-star linebacker Dante Booker, who was also considering Michigan and Notre Dame.

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The Big Ten may be swearing off scheduling cupcakes, but at least one Pac-12 school will continue gorging itself on the delectable football treats for the foreseeable future.

Oregon announced Thursday that it has scheduled three games with opponents from the FCS level – South Dakota on Aug. 30, 2014: UC Davis on Sept. 3, 2016: and Southern Utah on Sept. 2, 2017.  Obviously, all three games will be played in Autzen Stadium.

The South Dakota game completes the Ducks’ 2014 non-conference slate.  It’s 2015 three-game slate is also complete.

Oregon had previously scheduled games against FCS programs Nicholls State (2013) and Eastern Washington (2015).

It’s not all creampuffs for the Ducks, though, as UO has games scheduled against Tennessee (2013), Michigan State (2014 and 2015), Virginia (2016), Texas A&M (2018 and 2019) and Ohio State (2020 and 2021).  The Ducks are on the hunt for a marquee game in 2017, possibly at a neutral site in a one-off-type deal.

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Houston may have lost its leading rusher from the 2012 season to transfer, but the Cougars are apparently bringing in a player on the other side of the ball with the potential to start.

Lee Hightower announced on his Tumblr account that he will be transferring to Houston and will play for the Cougars.  The move comes after the defensive back had visited the school last weekend.

“Really dope city and school and I’ll be here for the next 3 years,” Hightower wrote.

Hightower was indefinitely suspended in early February for violating unspecified team rules and subsequently released by Boise State head coach Chris Petersen.  It was Hightower’s second suspension in less than four months.

The initial suspension came after Hightower had started the first seven games of the 2012 season at strong safety.  He did not play again last season.

Hightower becomes the second Broncos transfer to land at an FBS program in Texas this week.  Defensive lineman Sam Ukwuachu, dismissed earlier this month, announced that he will be enrolling at Baylor.

(Tip O’ the Cap: Idaho Statesman)

The mini-deluge of departures continues Thursday afternoon, with Michigan State the latest to see its football roster thinned.

In a press release, the Spartans announced that wide receiver Juwan Caesar has asked for and been granted a release from his MSU scholarship.  There’s no word on where the Miami, Fla., native may transfer.

A three-star member of the Spartans’ 2011 recruiting class, Caesar was rated as the No. 67 receiver in the country and the No. 77 player in the state of Florida.

Caesar’s true freshman season was derailed by a foot injury and he took a redshirt.  He did not play as a redshirt freshman in 2012, and was moved to tight end during bowl practices.

(Photo credit: Michigan State athletics)

AP

Following up on Steven Bench‘s self-reporting earlier today, USF has confirmed the addition of a new player to its football program.

The Bulls announced via a press release that the quarterback is indeed transferring to the school.  Bench announced late last month that he would be transferring from Penn State, and USF has been considered one of the front-runners to land the Cairo, Ga., product.

“We’re definitely excited that Steven decided to join the USF family,” head coach Willie Taggart said in a statement. “He is a coach’s son, who brings a lot of toughness to the game. His addition will also elevate the competition at quarterback, which will be good for all the players at the position. We’re looking forward to his arrival on campus so he can start working out with the guys, while getting acclimated to the way we do things.”

The release further noted that Bench is allowed to play in 2013 due to the Nittany Lions’ NCAA sanctions and will have three years of eligibility remaining.

Bench, a three-star member of the Nittany Lions’ 2012 recruiting class, told Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times that one of the biggest reasons for opting for the Bulls was that the coaching staff made it clear they not only “needed a quarterback, but they made me feel like they needed me to be their quarterback, and that goes a long way.”

AP

Some links from around college football on a Thursday…

• Matt Hayes of the Sporting News does think there’s inequality in the SEC’s scheduling model… and that Alabama is benefitting.
• Arizona State head coach Todd Graham has close ties to Oklahoma as well. Naturally, he was worried when Monday’s events unfolded.
• Toledo is also looking into selling beer and wine at football games.
• Rarely-used defensive end Ricardo Williams and receiver Robert Lockhart are no longer at Miami.
• Checking in with Tulane safety Devon Walker as he faces life with paralysis. An outstanding update from Yahoo! Sports.
• Former Rutgers quarterback Ryan Hart can pursue a lawsuit against EA Sports after winning an appeal in federal court. Similar to the O’Bannon lawsuit.
• Former Alabama athletic director Mal Moore was posthumously named Athletic Director of the Year by the Sports Business Daily.

AP

Nearly a month to the day it was announced that he would be transferring from Penn State, Steven Bench has found a new home to continue his playing career.

On his Twitter account Thursday morning, the quarterback revealed that he has “decided to attend the University of South Florida and become a [B]ull!!”  USF was one of a handful of schools that Bench had considered since leaving the Nittany Lions last month.

The Bulls have not yet officially announced Bench’s addition to the football program.

As has been previously noted, Bench will be eligible to play immediately in 2013 because of Penn State’s NCAA sanctions.  He will have three years of eligibility remaining plus a redshirt season.

Along with the Bulls, Bench had also visited Mississippi State and North Carolina State. Both FIU and Temple were reportedly in the mix at some level.

As a true freshman last season, Bench appeared in two games and attempted seven passes.

AP

‘Tis the season for transfers, apparently.

Following up on some hints from Kansas coach Charlie Weis on Wednesday, Kansas announced that evening that former Miami (OH) wide receiver Nick Harwell would be joining the program. Harwell was dismissed from the school last week by the dean’s office following an arrest in March that also resulted in his suspension from spring practices. As a result, he was no longer considered part of the football team.

Harwell pleaded guilty to one count of attempted theft on May 9 and was sentenced to 90 days in jail with 89 days suspended for the incident.

Despite his off-the-field issue, Harwell was an extremely productive receiver for the RedHawks. He led the team in receiving yards (870) and touchdowns (eight), and finished second in receptions (68) — all while missing three games with injuries. Harwell was also the NCAA’s second-leading receiver in 2011 with 129.6 receiving yards per game, finishing his sophomore campaign with 97 receptions for 1,425 yards and nine touchdowns.

Harwell leaves Miami as the school’s second all-time leading receiver in career receptions (229) and yards (3,166), as well as third in receiving touchdowns (23).

It’s not clear if Harwell will be eligible to play right away for the Jayhawks, but Weis has stated he’s looking for players who can make an immediate impact (much of KU’s 2013 signing class was made up of JUCO players).

And keep in mind that no Kansas wide receiver caught a touchdown last year.