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BCS round up: The schedule the rest of the way

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With November upon us, it’s time for the speculation about the BCS standings to shift into full gear.

The latest rankings have Florida State moving into No. 2 behind Alabama, but that position seems pretty shaky at the moment.

That’s because it all depends on how the schedule shakes out. Here’s a look at the schedules for the prime BCS contenders the rest of the way:

No. 1 Alabama: No. 13 LSU (7-2), at Mississippi State (4-4), Chattanooga (FCS 7-2), at No. 9 Auburn (8-1), SEC title game (possibly).

The schedule will keep Alabama firmly in the No. 1 spot if it wins out. Even an absurd scheduling of an FCS team in week 13 of the season won’t matter much. Can the Tide rebound in time if it loses to LSU on Saturday? Possibly, but it would need Auburn to keep winning, then it would have to beat the Tigers and hope its foe in the SEC title game was an 11-1 Missouri team. A win in that game would be enough to save Alabama’s quest for a third title if there was only one other undefeated team left.

No. 2 Florida State: at Wake Forest (4-5), Syracuse (4-4), Idaho (1-8), at Florida (4-4), ACC title game (possibly).

The Seminoles may have reached their high water mark with their big win over then-No. 7 Miami. The combined win-loss record of their remaining foes is 13-17 and their likely matchup in the ACC title game with, say, Miami or Virginia Tech wouldn’t impress the computers or the pollsters that much. It looks like FSU needs Oregon to lose to get the BCS title game berth.

No. 3 Oregon: at No. 5 Stanford (7-1), Utah (4-4), at Arizona (6-2), Oregon State (6-3), Pac-12 title game (possibly).

Oregon’s remaining opponents have a combined record of 23-10 and then it would likely play a ranked UCLA or Arizona State team in the Pac-12 title game. Simply put, if the Ducks win out, they’ll finish either first or second in the BCS rankings and make it to the title game for the second time in their history. It’s unlikely that Oregon could rebound from a loss to Stanford in time to leapfrog other teams, unless a bunch of teams screw up — always a possibility in college football.

No. 4 Ohio State: at Illinois (3-5), Indiana (3-5), Michigan (6-2), Big Ten title game (possibly).

Ohio State is playing at a very high level, but its schedule continues to hold it back. It didn’t help that Michigan lost to Michigan State over the weekend and it’s possible the Wolverines could lose a couple more times before the big game against the Buckeyes. Because of the weakness of the Big Ten, OSU could very well win 25 in a row and not make it to the BCS title game. Of course, maybe the reason it could get to 25-straight is because the Big Ten is so weak.

No. 5 Stanford: No. 2 Oregon (8-0), at USC (6-3), California (1-8), No. 23 Notre Dame (7-2), Pac-12 title game (possibly).

It seems like an iffy proposition for Stanford to grind its way into the title game, but since it is the highest-ranked one-loss team, it makes sense to gauge the possibility. Obviously, the Cardinal would make a huge jump with a win over Oregon and beating an improving USC team and Notre Dame would also help. But it seems highly improbable that it would be able to jump an undefeated FSU, Ohio State or Baylor team with a win in the Pac-12 title game. The Cardinal needs all three of those teams to lose a game.

No. 6 Baylor: No. 10 Oklahoma (7-1), No. 25 Texas Tech (7-2), at No. 14 Oklahoma State (7-1), at TCU (3-6), Texas (6-2).

If Baylor is going to make a miracle run to the BCS title game, it will have earned it by getting through a really tough November gauntlet. Its next three opponents are all ranked and have a combined 21-4 record. A win against the suddenly-lifelike Longhorns would serve as a de facto conference championship game for a league that is at a bit of a BCS disadvantage by not having one. I think an undefeated Baylor would jump an undefeated Ohio State. I don’t think it would jump FSU and definitely not Oregon or Alabama. The Bears need some help if they are going to get to Pasadena.

No. 9 Auburn: at Tennessee (4-5), Georgia (5-3), No. 1 Alabama (8-0), SEC title game (possibly).

Auburn would need a slew of miracles to happen for it to get to the title game for the second time in four seasons. Obviously, it must win out. But it would also need Stanford to beat Oregon and for FSU to lose to Florida or in the ACC title game. Baylor and Ohio State would also have to lose. Sounds easy right?

If history has taught us one thing, it’s that college football and the BCS process is never predictable. This time next week, we’ll probably have a completely different calculus. For now, this is the best we’ve got.

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22 Responses to “BCS round up: The schedule the rest of the way”
  1. shaynesm says: Nov 3, 2013 10:35 PM

    Oregon Ducks 2014 BCS champions!

  2. timh1955 says: Nov 3, 2013 10:46 PM

    Bama wants Oregon! Let’s see how many SEC teams can beat Oregon.

    ROLL TIDE!

  3. afrancis55 says: Nov 3, 2013 11:06 PM

    Well folks it’s about that time of year again for the Oregon ducklings to have their usual November prime time loss. Stanford will get the honors (per usual)

  4. Deb says: Nov 3, 2013 11:19 PM

    LSU gives me nightmares. Auburn gives me nightmares. But while we’re busy focusing on all those Tigers, Mississippi State could pull a surprise upset. And if we make the Championship game against Mizzou, they’ll have their QB back.

    I don’t believe any FBS team should schedule FCS opponents. And while I wouldn’t take them for granted, I won’t say Chattanooga gives me nightmares. But Georgia Southern played us a scary game a couple of seasons ago, so Nick’s probably going to tell the team all kinds of horror stories :)

  5. manik56 says: Nov 3, 2013 11:42 PM

    How does it matter for Ohio State that Michigan lost to Michigan State? It only does if MSU does not win their division. If they do win their division, it sets up a potential 11-1 MSU v 12-0 OSU match up, by far the best Championship game that weekend. This scenario far exceeds playing a Michigan team everyone knows is terrible.

  6. vincentbojackson says: Nov 4, 2013 12:28 AM

    If OSU backs into the National Championship game it will be a repeat of last year’s mismatch. Only difference is instead of Notre Dame and the fake girlfriend it would be OSU and their fake schedule.

    Undefeated for two seasons and hasn’t played anyone ranked inside the top 15 during that span. Not impressed.

  7. gfj7000 says: Nov 4, 2013 1:07 AM

    Stanford beat Oregon in OT last year due to referee error on a TD call. This year Stanford has gotten weaker team (lost a few to the draft + a few injuries) weak on offense average points scored – mid 20s, and only the cupcakes they scored more than 30 points. Hogan (1+ years at QB) vs. Heisman #1 candidate – Mariota – and averaging 50 points / game – go figure. I agree with

  8. suprmous says: Nov 4, 2013 1:29 AM

    I believe in miracles and one could definitely happen in Ttown on Satday with the Swamp Tigers. It’s gonna be interestin yet hard on the nerves and spirit for many reasons for sure: goin home, seein the family, facin the family, rootiin for the Swamp Tigers, waitin to see who says the first word bout the game Sunday mornin, biddin the family adieu, and comin back to the Swamp. But no matter cause I know how to suck it up and cowgirl up, but keepin a stiff upper lip durin and after seein the family’s gonna be hard. This’ll be the first time the Holy Terror 3 and I’ve been able to be at home together in quite sometime. Here’s to a lot of prayer and remindin em I’m still their sissy and not the enemy,hahaha.

  9. sailbum7 says: Nov 4, 2013 4:25 AM

    If there is one thing that all of this makes clear, it is that they need to institute a playoff system for the title. When you have the very real possibility (almost every year it seems) of an undefeated team not getting a chance to play for the title, there are definitely changes needed to the system! They need to stop screwing around and set up either a four team, or possibly a six team playoff arrangement. Have something like this – 3 plays 6, 4 plays 5. Winner of 3/6 plays 2 and winner of 4/5 plays 1. Then the winner of those games meet for the title. The reason I prefer having 6 teams instead of 4 is that even with 4 you may still have an undefeated team not make it into the mix (like Baylor this year).

  10. longborer69 says: Nov 4, 2013 8:24 AM

    The chances of all five teams being undefeated at the end are virtually nil.

    Alabama has LSU, Auburn, and SEC championship.

    Oregon has Stanford, Utah (ask Stanford if they can be dangerous on the day), OSU, and PAC championship.

    FSU has a hurting Florida team with nothing to lose and the ACC championship against somebody decent.

    Ohio State has at Michigan and the B1G championship against MSU’s defense.

    Baylor has every real team on their schedule in their remaining games.

    There are losses in there. At least one, probably 2, maybe more.

    If history is any predictor, FSU will choke somewhere. Oregon will do what they always do. They will crush the team that figures to be their biggest rival on the road (this year, Stanford), then come home and lose to a team that everyone will decide is the up and coming power in the PAC (Utah). Baylor will lose somewhere. Auburn will beat Bama, then lose to two-loss USCe in the SEC championship.

    Bama, with one loss (BUT SEC!!!!) and not even having won their division, will be voted into the NCG against an unbeaten tOSU that everyone knows isn’t really that good, and crush them. And everyone will know that one-loss Oregon and one-loss FSU were far better teams than the Buckeyes, maybe better than Alabama. But that’s the way the BCS system works.

  11. 8to80texansblog says: Nov 4, 2013 10:48 AM

    I just remember last year after A&M knocked off Bama, they fell to #4 I think. Then the very next weekend, #2 and #3 lost within minutes of each other and there Bama was again.

    Strange things happen in November.

  12. raysfan1 says: Nov 4, 2013 11:09 AM

    Let’s assume for a moment the Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State, and Baylor all win out–unlikely but possible. Alabama and Oregon will then be in the BCS championship and will have earned it, with Alabama the heavy favorite. Ohio State will be at the Rose Bowl, probably against Stanford. Hopefully someone would find a way for Baylor and FSU to play each other.

    That would be a slate of bowls worth watching and arguing about. Meanwhile, I really hope the potential small conference BCS busters lose once each so we don’t have New Year’s Day Lambs-to-the-Slaughter Bowls this year.

  13. Deb says: Nov 4, 2013 12:38 PM

    @80to80texansblog …

    I’m glad you remember #2 and #3 lost last year, and that’s why Bama moved up again. For some reason, longborer69 thinks Bama was gifted its spot in the championship. And yeah, longborer69, FSU’s remaining schedule looks really scary.

  14. pigskin28 says: Nov 4, 2013 1:05 PM

    If Stanford defeats Oregon but somehow does not jump OSU? Might as well put all no loss teams ahead of them also … cause the only reason they are ranked so high is name recognition. ala Notre Dame every year. STILL!!

  15. jdillydawg says: Nov 4, 2013 5:22 PM

    Sic ‘em Bears!

  16. jarzmel says: Nov 4, 2013 6:54 PM

    Amazing how so many know it alls actually think they know it all.

  17. gavroche1835 says: Nov 4, 2013 7:51 PM

    “Polly wants a cracker”…………….parrots, please, new material, I’ve already read this crap via the suc (aka sec )bias media, hardy har har. When you begin to understand what you see while watching a game, chime in, otherwise just cut and paste any of the crap that is supposed to be sports reporting, at least that way in most cases the grammar will be correct and you just freed up time for your closest relatives heh heh or maybe a friendly gator, yea Jimbob, I’m talking to you! G O B U C K S !!!!

  18. longborer69 says: Nov 5, 2013 3:17 AM

    Hi, Deb. Thanks for noticing my comment. You might have noticed I was talking about Bama not winning their division.

    Silly me, I thought they did win their division last year, when they assuredly did earn their spot in the NCG.

    And yes, I do think they were gifted their spot the year before. Full credit to them for making the most of it, though. Great team.

    As to FSU’s schedule, I wouldn’t call it scary at all, but it certainly does include opportunities to stumble, just like everybody else.

  19. theemrsanity says: Nov 5, 2013 7:53 AM

    The hypocrisy in this article belies its credibility. If you are going to criticize Ohio State’s schedule, how can you possibly put FSU or Oregon in the top five? Two of the weakest divisions in CFB, and their claim to fame is beating teams that were over ranked to start with. Clemson, really? Miami? C’mon man. They are who we thought they were. Alabama, absolutely. To be the man you have to beat the man. But the big ten is the second toughest conference in CFB where the top 6 or 7 can play. Not these jokes out west, or the D2 ACC. If it isn’t Bama and Ohio state in the championship, they may as well just pick the teams in the preseason……Oh wait, they did, and OSU was #2, and hasn’t lost?

  20. 8to80texansblog says: Nov 5, 2013 5:00 PM

    @theemrsanity

    You can’t be really comparing FSU’s schedule to Ohio State’s. FSU has already played 2 top ten and previously undefeated teams and has the 16th toughest schedule in the country compared to Ohio St., who hasn’t played a single top ten team and has the 62nd toughest schedule.

    Plus when you say the Pac 12 N is one of the weakest divisions in CFB, you realize they are the only division with 2 top 5 teams? And the ACC Atlantic division has 2 top 7 teams….

  21. greggatx says: Nov 5, 2013 11:59 PM

    Baylor by far has the toughest schedule of all to finish the year. Again this shows how weak those other conferences are. The sec and acc are one team conferences. The pac12 a little stronger.

  22. 8to80texansblog says: Nov 7, 2013 2:58 PM

    greggatx says: Nov 5, 2013 11:59 PM

    Baylor by far has the toughest schedule of all to finish the year. Again this shows how weak those other conferences are. The sec and acc are one team conferences. The pac12 a little stronger.
    __________________________________

    I’ll give you that the SEC is overrated this year compared to years past.

    SEC has most teams in the top 10 right now Almost half the conference is in the top 25

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