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If Oregon beats Stanford, commence BCS chaos?

Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota fumbles as Stanford Cardinal defensive end Henry Anderson tackles during first half of NCAA football game in Eugene Reuters

According to SB Nation numbers guru Bill Connelly, there’s a 78 percent chance three or more teams are undefeated heading into conference championship weekend.

That sounds bad, but the way Connelly’s projections play out there may not be a ton of debate as to which teams deserve berths in the BCS Championship.

Connelly pegs Florida State as having the best chance to win out (79 percent), with games against Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho and Florida remaining before the ACC Championship. Alabama (63 percent) has the second-best shot of winning the rest of its games, even with LSU, Auburn and Mizzou/South Carolina still on tap.

After that, it’s Baylor (60 percent) and Ohio State (51 percent). Connelly gives Stanford a 65 percent chance of beating Oregon tonight, although if the Ducks win their chance at winning out jumps from 19 percent to 55 percent.

If Oregon wins, the Ducks have a 66 percent chance of making the BCS Championship, while FSU is at 48 percent. Basically, if Oregon beats Stanford, things get messy in the final year of the BCS.

Still, it was right around this time last year that the BCS looked messy, with undefeated Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame all vying for two spots. Then Texas A&M beat Alabama, Stanford beat Oregon and Baylor beat K-State in successive weekends to largely clean things up. We haven’t seen any seismic, championship-altering top-five losses yet this year. Perhaps one (or two) are coming tonight.

One thing that is clear, though: Baylor needs some help to crack the top two, even with a rigorous schedule to close out the season. And Ohio State needs an awful lot of help to reach the BCS Championship.

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26 Responses to “If Oregon beats Stanford, commence BCS chaos?”
  1. Mr. Wright 212 says: Nov 7, 2013 2:31 PM

    No chaos, just move Stanford up ahead of Ohio State when they win tonight, FSU back to #2 until Saturday, and Oregon should slip no further than 5th, since Stanford was there (and shouldn’t have been in the first place).

    Depending on how badly Baylor beats Oklahoma, they might pass Ohio State also.

  2. reallythinkhere says: Nov 7, 2013 2:40 PM

    How does he come up with Stanford being favored over Oregon? Just a little confused there because that goes against the logic of basically everybody. Including Vegas.

  3. halbert53 says: Nov 7, 2013 2:41 PM

    I would say Bama, Oregon and Baylor (in that order) face the toughest road to the BCS NC game. So if OSU and FSU wind up in the NC game, it will be because of the system and not because they are the best two teams.
    What ought to be done is set up three inter conference weekends (weeks 3, 6, 9).
    Weekend 3 have SEC vs. PAC 12, Big 12 (plus top 2 ACC) vs Big Ten. Top ranked SEC vs top ranked PAC 12, # 2 SEC vs #2 PAC 12, etc.
    Weekend 6 and 9 rotate conference pairings.
    This will provide lots of great games, get rid of cupcake non-conference games, and will ensure best teams earn their way to playoffs instead of getting there via easy schedule.

  4. noplanb1 says: Nov 7, 2013 2:42 PM

    no Stanford should not move ahead of a school undefeated for two years, after already losing to an unranked Utah squad.

    /Not a buckeye fan

  5. skwackquackwoof says: Nov 7, 2013 2:52 PM

    It’s only complicated if Oregon and Alabama don’t take care of their business.

  6. halbert53 says: Nov 7, 2013 2:52 PM

    And in those 2 years, they played a much easier schedule than the champions of the SEC, PAC 12 and Big 12.

  7. classyjacklambert says: Nov 7, 2013 3:44 PM

    Just start the playoff system this year. Screw the bcs.

  8. bigthyme93 says: Nov 7, 2013 4:04 PM

    How can osu be ranked 2 bcs at the beginning of the season and now rank 4. Bcs knew all teams schedule prior to ranking. With osu being 12-0 and bama being last years nst’l champs, its only right that bama versus tosu for the nat’l championship. They both are undefeated.

  9. reefcup says: Nov 7, 2013 4:19 PM

    The last time Ohio State played a top 10 team in the regular season was ….9/12/2009. The National Champion should have to play a good team before the national championship game….

  10. th56 says: Nov 7, 2013 4:25 PM

    I don’t think having Notre Dame in the title game exactly worked out.

  11. halbert53 says: Nov 7, 2013 4:32 PM

    Schedules are known in advance but not how good those teams actually are. This year, OSU would finish 3rd or worse in PAC 12 North, 3rd in the ACC, no better than 3rd in Big 12, no better than 4th in SEC West but possibly could win SEC East (with 1-2 SEC losses). Give Urban 1-2 more years, and OSU may well be a playoff caliber team. Oregon, Baylor, FSU, Texas A&M, Stanford, Alabama, Clemson would all easily handle OSU head to head; only thing that might keep margin under 30 is Meyer.

  12. dolbythomas says: Nov 7, 2013 4:49 PM

    What’s with the discussion it’s the ducks all the way…… period

  13. be4bama says: Nov 7, 2013 5:01 PM

    “O” Please!!!!

  14. shaynesm says: Nov 7, 2013 5:08 PM

    @dolbythomas- I agree, like it or not, the Ducks are it, time will prove so. Go Ducks!

  15. normtide says: Nov 7, 2013 7:05 PM

    Oregon will win big. Stanford is a little overrated.

  16. classyjacklambert says: Nov 7, 2013 10:15 PM

    Yeah…the ducks all the way….Mariota better come out firing in the second.

  17. handsofsweed says: Nov 7, 2013 10:34 PM

    Halbert, you are heading for an extremely painful and humiliating January. You’d better start drinking now in order to be able to truly forget your impending misery.

    On second thought, since you’re already smashed, you probably shouldn’t stop. It’s gonna hurt like hell when your buzz wears off.

  18. Mr. Wright 212 says: Nov 7, 2013 11:21 PM

    When will these FOOL Oregon fans ever learn?

    Winston is far more impressive than Mariota, and Miami’s defense is better than Stanford’s which REALLY makes him look bad.

    You can go back into your holes until next September Oregon fans, you made my guys have to focus harder through our toughest part of the slate, and now all we have to do is win out and take the ACC.


  19. Anoesis says: Nov 8, 2013 12:25 AM

    TAMU beating Bama last year “cleaned things up?” Bama still got to go to the NC game and was gifted a vastly overrated Notre Dame team to beat up on.

    Now that Oregon has blown its chance for the 2nd straight year, the road is wide open for FSU and Bama to win out so they can travel across the country to play in the Granddaddy of them all. That might actually be a decent game compared to last year.

  20. tigersgeaux says: Nov 8, 2013 7:38 AM

    Stanford has Oregon’s number. No matter who coaches Oregon, they cannot beat Stanford. Stanford’s coaching staff always has a great game plan, and the players always seem to really be motivated to deflate the over-inflation of the Ducks.

  21. normly says: Nov 9, 2013 11:39 PM

    Halbert, come on man. Every year one conference gets dubbed the up-and-coming standout by the media. Obviously that is what happened to the PAC 12 this year, and you’re clearly drinking the Kool Aid. You got duped. Strange how in a year that the wheels fell off of the best team historically in the conference, USC, the PAC12 is “second best”? Oregon scores a lot of points and has cool uniforms, and both of those things attract viewers, which is exactly why the media has anointed the PAC12 this season. The wool over your eyes is leading to insane statements like anything that suggests that OSU wouldn’t convincingly win the PAC12. The only PAC12 defense that doesn’t deserve to be laughed off the field this year is Stanford’s, but we know that USC has had some great defenses in the past. Let’s remember what happened just in 2010 in the Rose Bowl when Ohio state crushed Oregon in every category and won the game easily, despite the final score. The ACC is weak on average, and I assure you that the Buckeyes would give FSU all that they could handle and you might as well flip a coin to predict the winner. Teams can’t control how many games their opponents lose to other teams throughout the season. Aside from Bama, OSU has the bigger target on their backs week in and week out. They get every opponents best effort every time, and having the longest winning streak in the nation is never something that should be overlooked when the team plays in one of two greatest conferences in the history of college football.

    However, OSU has no shot this year at the national championship, and they haven’t shown enough yet to prove they deserve the chance. Everyone wants to see a great championship game, and OSU can go out and compete with anyone and give themselves a chance to win. That’s much more than I can say about ND last season. All the hype surrounding ND last year, got them into a game they had absolutely zero chance of winning. I don’t think any intelligent fan believed that ND could have beat Bama last year, so hype, much like the hype that FSU and Stanford are currently enjoying, ruined the championship game. No one wants that, so beware of hype.

  22. Mr. Wright 212 says: Nov 9, 2013 11:45 PM

    LMFAO Ohio State would give FSU a game? You mean a QUARTER? Ohio State is no better than Miami.

    And there is no “hype” over Florida State, they are legitimately dominant and you are just late realizing it. They are superior to Ohio State at every slot across the field on both sides. Please stop, I had my laughs earlier in the day with some of the YouTube comedy clips that I saw. I don’t need your unintentional comedy.

    Additionally, Alabama does not even have the defense to stop Florida State. Ohio State DEFINITELY doesn’t.

  23. normtide says: Nov 9, 2013 11:49 PM

    Great post normly. I agree OSU would beat Oregon. OSU plays that style that Oregon clearly can’t handle. Big defensive line, offense that can control the clock. OSU is underrated, but you have to judge teams somehow. OSU needs one more team in the B1G to step up. If they had one big league opponent, a game to build up to. Something to hype. Hey, best of luck the rest of the year.

  24. normtide says: Nov 9, 2013 11:52 PM

    Mr.Wright, don’t overlook that Bama defense. Or their ability to game plan over the month lay off leading up to any title game. You should be excited about your team, but lets get to that game first. Best of luck. Roll Tide

  25. normly says: Nov 10, 2013 12:10 AM

    Bama doesn’t have the D to stop FSU? Sounds like Mr. Wrong has a son on FSU, or possibly a grandson based on that comment which could easily be diagnosed as dementia rearing it’s ugly head. You have to support your team. I get that. If FSU isn’t your team, seek some psychiatric help just to make sure there isn’t something really bad going on upstairs. I’m not going to get into an argument with a differently abled FSU fan, but I’ll have more to say if things shake out like they are looking and Bama and FSU play in championship. Not only can Bama and few other defenses stop FSU, but Bama will outwork, outtalent, outgameplan, and outscore FSU. Could you imagine if Winston got hurt? Their chances would go from about 30% to 0% immediately. Say Braxton Miller got injured. Guiton comes in and OSU might even play better as a team for a game or two.

    Think before you blindly support your team with unfounded and unproved statements in a public forum.

  26. Mr. Wright 212 says: Nov 10, 2013 12:11 AM

    Pass defense in the secondary and lack of pass rush without blitzing (which doesn’t affect Winston) anyway, are two major concerns for Alabama against Florida State. Just because you don’t like it, normly, doesn’t make it true.

    normtide, I am with you. Let’s just get to the game.

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