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Pac 12, Big 12 heavyweight battles will help frame BCS picture

Oregon v Stanford Getty Images

So you say the weeknight college football action has been kind of lame this season? Well then this is the Thursday night you have been waiting all year for, and it was worth the wait. Tonight will feature two of the biggest games of the year in the Pac 12 and Big 12, and the conference championship picture in each should come in to focus at the end of the night. But what about the BCS picture? Well, that could start to clear up a little bit or end up getting a little more complicated.

With Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Pac 12), Stanford (7-1, 5-1 Pac 12) and  Baylor (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) all ranked in the BCS top ten and in action, this Thursday night will pack plenty of punch to provide an alternative to whatever the NFL has to offer.

Stanford vs. Oregon

This is the biggest game between Oregon and Stanford since, well, last year. Once again, the top two teams in the Pac 12 will square off in a Pac 12 North battle that will likely determine which school gets home field advantage in the Pac 12 championship game. The winner also remains in the BCS championship picture while the loser may have to settle for a trip to the Rose Bowl. Quite the consolation prize though, right? Stanford scored an overtime victory in Eugene last season to shatter Oregon’s BCS championship dreams. Can they do it again?

There are only a handful of teams in the country that play a style of defense that should be able to slow down Oregon’s high-scoring offense. Alabama and Florida State may have it. So does Stanford. The Cardinal may play the best defense there is in the Pac 12, but even they will have to bring a strong performance at home to slow down the Ducks. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is currently in a two-man race for the Heisman Trophy with Florida State’s Jameis Winston, but a strong performance at Stanford could help him pull back ahead after Winston has seized the momentum. Will Mariota have a Heisman moment?

Stanford’s defense will be the biggest factor in this game. If they can tame the Ducks and let Tyler Gaffney lead the Stanford ground game to control the clock, the Cardinal will be in good shape. Stanford has already thrown a brick wall at some potent offenses this season — Arizona State, Washington, UCLA — and they play confident when they face Oregon. Oregon’s last game against UCLA showed they can be contained but it is difficult to keep them down for long, and points can come in a hurry.

The road team has won this match-up each of the past two years, with home field advantage in the Pac 12 championship game going to the winner each time. The stakes are as high as they can get for the Pac 12 considering a spot in the BCS championship game is still on the line as well. A win likely nudges Orgeon past Florida State, and Stanford is the best one-loss team in the country according to the BCS standings.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma

For as good as Baylor has been under Art Briles, the Bears may still be looking for the win that puts them over the edge from very good to Big 12 team to beat. On Thursday night, Baylor will get that opportunity that has been building over the last few years in Waco. Baylor is battling a stigma that suggests the Bears are all about the offense and little else. That may not be true though. While the Bears offense is on record pace this season, the defense has allowed just 13.9 points per game. Is this Baylor defense the most unheralded defensive unit in the country? They could very well be.

Only two teams have scored more than 14 points against Baylor (Kansas Sate, West Virginia), although it is fair to argue their opponents have not been all that outstanding. Still, Baylor ranks sixth in the nation ins scoring defense. The Bears are also fourth in the Big 12 in rushing defense and first against the pass (sixth in the country), which may be a bit surprising considering teams often have to try catching up by throwing more often to attempt to keep pace Baylor offense. On Thursday night the Bears look for their best win of the season when they host Oklahoma, a one loss team still in the discussion for a Big 12 championship and one that could start to build a case as the best one-loss team in the country if things fall in to place.

But the story here is Baylor. If Ohio State was left at the rest stop on the BCS highway, Baylor never made it out of the driveway. But that could change in a hurry. Yes, Baylor likely still needs some help given the strength of schedule to this point, but the Bears have a back-loaded conference schedule that will see games against three currently ranked teams (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State) and another with a winning record (Texas) in addition to a rivalry game against struggling but defensively sound TCU on a neutral field. With players like Bryce Petty and Lache Seastrunk on offense and a defense that has played better than given credit for, maybe this Baylor team still has some tricks to show off.

 

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7 Responses to “Pac 12, Big 12 heavyweight battles will help frame BCS picture”
  1. 8to80texansblog says: Nov 7, 2013 10:40 AM

    Baylor fans have to be just giddy right now. They are seriously in the Golden Age of Bears football.

    Briles was obviously a great hire. Already won a Heisman there and being seriously considered a national championship contender. If you would have asked me even 5 years ago if any of that was possible…. I would have laughed at you.

  2. Ryan Drescher says: Nov 7, 2013 11:19 AM

    Oklahoma is also in the top-10 of the BCS.

  3. rsoandb says: Nov 7, 2013 11:28 AM

    Longtime OU fan here (sigh). OU’s terrible pass defense and rather pedestrian offense likely won’t be up to the task. Bears will light ‘em up. Briles should be coach of the year…

  4. pr0phat69 says: Nov 7, 2013 11:38 AM

    “With Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Pac 12), Stanford (7-1, 5-1 Pac 12) and Baylor (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) all ranked in the BCS top ten and in action, this Thursday night will pack plenty of punch to provide an alternative to whatever the NFL has to offer.”

    Your forgot Okalahoma is in there to….. They dont pay you guys to do this do they?

  5. philliesblow says: Nov 7, 2013 12:12 PM

    “There are only a handful of teams in the country that play a style of defense that should be able to slow down Oregon’s high-scoring offense. Alabama and Florida State may have it. So does Stanford. ”

    # 1 in Total Defense, # 3 in Scoring Defense. The team from East Lansing says hello.

    http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

    http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/28

  6. oregonmike says: Nov 7, 2013 2:32 PM

    Hey PB,

    We will see Sparty (and you?) next year in Autzen!
    We probably won’t quite be the same, without MM, Huff, and maybe Thomas on offense, Ifo on defense, and more, but we’ll try to put up a good fight.

    And poorly informed people say the Oregon Way doesn’t prepare people for the next level—hah!

  7. andyreidisfat says: Nov 7, 2013 7:51 PM

    @philliesblow. High school teams could have good defenses in the big ten. Seriously northwestern is a contender for their division or at least were.

    Anywho tonight is a double slaughter. The bears will not be stopped tonight by OK, no offense OK fans it is just their time. And the ducks are going to crush Stanford and run it up chip Kelly style. The cardnial have great players and coaching no doubt, but this Oregon offense is just crazy. Fastest offense I have ever seen. The o line runs better than most line backers it’s just nuts, imagine if Kelly was still calling plays. They would be averaging 90 a game.

    Just so it’s known I am a Fresno state fan so I could careless about any of the 4 teams.

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