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Who faces Florida State? Sorting through ACC Coastal Division race

Georgia Tech v Virginia Tech Getty Images

Here we are on November 11 and still no clear favorite in the ACC’s Coastal Division. Florida State has already wrapped up the Atlantic Division and is juts focusing on keeping up the BCS Championship pace while waiting to find out who they will face in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte at the end of the regular season. With Virginia Tech roughing up Miami on Saturday there are a number of scenarios that can play out in the Coastal race, which could make for a complicated mess.

Figuring out a two-team tiebreaker is simple, with head-to-head result serving as the first tiebreaker. But the ACC Coastal Division could see as many as four teams finish the season with an identical conference record. It is possible Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami and North Carolina could all finish with an ACC record of 5-3, which would be fun to break down using the ACC’s tiebreakers. The more likely scenario will see two or three teams finish with identical records, but here is a look at how this division shapes up the rest of the way, with the exception of Virginia.

Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2 ACC)

Remaining ACC Games: @ Clemson

Outlook: It is likely Georgia Tech loses on the road against Clemson, a team that still has a good shot to be selected for a BCS bowl game. With a potential loss at Clemson, Georgia Tech will end their ACC schedule with a mark of 5-3, with losses to Virginia Tech and Miami and wins against Duke, North Carolina and Pittsburgh. Georgia Tech would have a tough time reaching the ACC Championship Game for a second straight season with a loss at Clemson. If Georgia Tech can knock off the Tigers, then we will talk, but for now it does not look great for Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech (7-3, 4-2 ACC)

Remaining ACC Games: Maryland, @ Virginia

Outlook: After smashing Miami, Virginia Tech looks to be the team to beat in the ACC Coastal despite having a head-to-head loss to Duke just a couple of weeks back. The Hokies have wins against Miami and Georgia Tech in addition to North Carolina and Pittsburgh, which could end up helping give Virginia Tech the edge in a three-team tiebreaker scenario. Virginia Tech may have the best remaining conference schedule, especially if the offense happens to bust out the way it did against the Hurricanes. Maryland is fading fast and Virginia has just two wins this season. The Hokies should finish with a 6-2 ACC record, and that should get them back to the ACC Championship Game to face Florida State.

Duke (7-2, 3-2 ACC)

Remaining ACC Games: Miami, @ Wake Forest, @ North Carolina

Outlook: The toughest game on Duke’s schedule will be played this weekend, and they get it at home. A win against Miami would give the Blue Devils two huge wins against the Hurricanes and Virginia Tech, and the final two games are probable wins despite being on the road. If Duke can get the win against Miami and they finish the season with a 6-2 ACC mark, they will win a potential head-to-head tiebreaker with Virginia Tech in a two-team tie thanks to a 13-10 victory two weeks ago. However, if it comes down to a three-team situation, Duke starts to lose their advantage. For Duke, winning against Miami will make for the best possible scenario to reach the championship game.

Miami (7-2, 3-2 ACC)

Remaining ACC Games: @ Duke, Virginia, @ Pittsburgh

Outlook: Miami is sinking fast and time is running out to plug the holes. Miami’s undefeated start and top ten ranking feel like a distant memory and the Hurricanes have the most difficult of the remaining conference schedules in the Coastal. Miami plays two game son the road, at Duke and at Pittsburgh, and they are capable of losing both. A win this weekend at Duke will give Miami an edge in tie-breaking procedures though as they would have wins against Georgia Tech and Duke, which would help eliminate the Yellow Jackets and Blue Devils from some of the tie breakers, but Virginia Tech will have the upper hand with the head-to-head win. Miami probably has to win their final three games to even have a chance to reach a game that looked to be a certainty just a couple of weeks ago.

North Carolina (4-5, 3-3 ACC)

Remaining ACC Games: @ Pittsburgh, Duke

Outlook: With losses to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Miami already, North Carolina is essentially out of the equation. Mathematically they can still grab a share of the division championship, but the tiebreakers will not be kind to North Carolina if it comes down to that.

Pittsburgh (5-4, 2-3 ACC)

Remaining ACC Games: North Carolina, @ Syracuse, Miami

Outlook: After Virginia Tech, the ACC newcomers may have the most favorable schedule the rest of the way with home games against UNC and Miami and a road game at Syracuse. Depending on what Panthers team shows up, a 3-0 run here is not unrealistic. Oh it’s not exactly likely, but it is certainly not impossible. Pittsburgh has losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech that could hurt, but they would end up having wins against Miami, North Carolina and Duke that could come in handy.

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6 Responses to “Who faces Florida State? Sorting through ACC Coastal Division race”
  1. urfinished says: Nov 11, 2013 10:33 AM

    Hokies certainly have the occasional let down…see Duke, BC, and four turnovers per game.
    However, if they don’t turn it over they are the best team of that group and it would be best for the ACC and Florida State’s BCS ranking if that was the championship game.
    A rematch of 2010…but Tyrod Taylor won’t be playing superman this time.

  2. Deb says: Nov 11, 2013 10:34 AM

    It’s hard to imagine any of those teams presenting a challenge for FSU. I’d be shocked if the Seminoles didn’t sail through to Pasadena.

  3. classyjacklambert says: Nov 11, 2013 11:23 AM

    The only other team in the ACC that could possibly present a challenge to FSU would be Clemson on a good day. Those two are a class above the rest.

  4. deeboy says: Nov 11, 2013 12:00 PM

    Small correction. Duke lost to Georgia Tech, but beat Virginia Tech. Still interesting to see the scenarios laid out. Thanks CFT.

  5. Kevin McGuire says: Nov 11, 2013 12:13 PM

    @deeboy – Thanks for catching that. Should be corrected now, but hopefully the rest of this outline made it clear that was just a simple typo.

  6. Mr. Wright 212 says: Nov 11, 2013 1:44 PM

    I’ve said it before, I’ll laugh if it’s Duke, after VT and Miami fans were guaranteeing it to start the season.

    And all jokes aside, I think it WILL be Duke.

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