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Where the Heisman race stands

Andre Williams, Sean Davis AP

What to make of this year’s Heisman race?

In my 10 seasons covering the trophy, I’ve never seen a race this unsettled this late in the process.

Every candidate has at least two major drawbacks that in any other year would probably be disqualifying. In the end, it may come down to which candidate ends up dominating his region while appearing on just enough ballots nationwide to eke out a win. I envision the results of this race looking a lot like that of 2001, when Eric Crouch won the Heisman with just one region and 770 points (the lowest winning total since Terry Baker won with 707 points in 1962) while five other candidates totaled over 200.

Let’s do a rundown of what we’re dealing with.

– The tentative front runner, Jameis Winston of Florida State, has a major legal issue hanging over him that could potentially derail his candidacy. That issue is unlikely to be resolved one way or the other before Thanksgiving, which means that the decision could come just as the Seminoles begin preparations for the ACC title game. If he is not charged, then I think it’s likely that enough Heisman voters will give him the benefit of the doubt to enable him to win the trophy. Even then, he’s going to have a hard time benefiting much from what he does on the field from here on out because FSU’s remaining schedule includes the worst Florida team since 1979 and Duke in the ACC title game — hardly the type of matchups that will compel voters to tune in. Of course, if he is charged with a felony, he will likely be dropped from the majority of ballots and voters will look elsewhere.

– AJ McCarron of Alabama seems to be the safest candidate. After all, he’s the quarterback for the No. 1 team and a well-known and proven commodity. But to win he’ll have to overcome his relatively lackluster production and the perception that he’s not really the engine that drives Alabama’s success. Big games in his remaining matchups against Auburn and in the SEC title game could help him change that perception just enough to tilt the race in his direction. I have a feeling that, while he’s likely to appear on a lot of ballots, he’ll need to finish strong in his home region (the South) to have a shot at winning. That means putting distance between himself and Winston and Manziel — a tall order indeed.

– The conventional wisdom is that Bryce Petty of Baylor is now out of the race as a result of his team’s crushing defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State. But Petty has two more games left to add to his still-impressive resume and his one loss may not be that fatal given that none of the other candidates have been able to pull away from the pack either. The narrative aiding Petty until tonight was that he was leading an unstoppable offense on a Cinderella charge to an undefeated season. That’s now gone and all he’s got left are his numbers and, potentially, the best season in school history. But that attribute doesn’t capture the imagination of voters around the country the way it might with, say, a more traditional power. The problem with Petty is that he never got a chance to break out of his status as a quality regional candidate — he lost that shot tonight. But in a really close race with a lot of candidates getting support, it’s possible that he wins his region and remains a viable contender so long as he finishes strong against TCU and Texas.

– Is Marcus Mariota out of the race after throwing his first two interceptions of the season in his team’s second loss, this one a 42-16 drubbing by Arizona? I believe so. But, again, with so many candidates having so many weaknesses and the race likely coming down to hard-core regionalism, it’s still possible that Mariota’s production and name recognition could attract enough voters out West to give him influence over the final outcome. With Oregon now out of the Pac-12 title game, I can’t see a path to victory, but I can see him getting to New York.

– Heismandment No. 9 looks to be safe for another year and I’d venture to guess that if Johnny Manziel can’t overturn it, who will? Johnny Football had perhaps his worst game in his team’s loss to LSU and won’t win that second Heisman, but if he rebounds with a great outing against Missouri, I think there’s enough sentiment in his favor out there to allow him to have a respectable showing in this race. People know how good he is, even if they don’t think he had the most outstanding season this time around. He might end up weakening Winston (assuming he’s not charged) and McCarron in the South region while also sapping Petty’s strength in the Southwest. I think he’s headed to New York and will likely finish third.

– All the chaos of the day opens up the door for perhaps the most unlikely Heisman candidate in recent memory. I’m talking running back Andre Williams of Boston College. I don’t think he was on anyone’s radar until this weekend and I think most voters still don’t know who he is. But I suspect that is about to change (BC will need to give him a boost). After all, he’s now eclipsed the 2,000-yard rushing mark with one game yet to play. With so many flawed candidates arrayed against him, I think voters might be more inclined to overlook his team’s 7-4 record — keep in mind Toby Gerhart of Stanford was on an 8-4 team in 2009 and he was the runner up in the vote by the closest margin in Heisman history. And it helps that his recent rushing explosion has spurred his team to a four-game win streak. There’s a possibility that Williams captures the vote in the Northeast and does well in the Mid-Atlantic as well. Again, in a close race spread out over several candidates, the winner might not need to capture more than one region. (Note: I think it’s interesting that the ACC could have two Heisman finalists this year after not having a single one since 2000)

– There are definite cases to be made for Jordan Lynch and Derek Carr, but I don’t expect them to be able to get enough national support to make it to New York. Ironically, Lynch and Carr did not benefit much from today’s meltdowns since the lack of a consensus Heisman front runner is more likely to depress their vote totals.  The presence of a clear cut winner usually makes it easier for a voter to take a flyer on a player like Lynch or Carr by putting them in the 2nd or 3rd spots on their ballot. But with so many options still remaining and voters still undecided on a leader, they are likely to be crowded out a bit by the remaining group of contenders. I expect Lynch to influence who wins the MidWest, while Carr will obviously be a factor in the West, but I can’t see either winning their region.

Yes, there are still games to play that will decide this thing. It seems that anything that can happen will happen, which is why we might end up with one of most suspense-filled races in Heisman history before all is said and done.

How would the race go if the vote was held right now? I think it would look something like this (don’t quote me…it’ll probably change next week):

1. Jameis Winston

2. AJ McCarron

3. Johnny Manziel

4. Bryce Petty

5. Andre Williams

6. Marcus Mariota

7. Jordan Lynch

8. Ka’Deem Carey

9. Derek Carr

10. Tajh Boyd

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21 Responses to “Where the Heisman race stands”
  1. richiesnotincognegro says: Nov 24, 2013 8:07 AM

    No Braxton Miller? This article is laughable.

  2. cwk22 says: Nov 24, 2013 9:00 AM

    Love how Jerky Football not only played bad, but came unglued as he yelled at his offensive linemen.

  3. cwk22 says: Nov 24, 2013 9:01 AM

    Love how Jerky Football not only played bad, but came unglued and yelled at his offensive linemen during the game.

  4. raysfan1 says: Nov 24, 2013 9:07 AM

    There are a number of straw polls of voters out there each week as to what their Heisman ballot will look like. There are plenty who are also very upfront on TV or in their columns, etc about who they are thinking of voting for. Right now, Braxton Miller shows up in few of those unless prefaced with “If Miller hadn’t missed two and a half games…”

    Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great player; but it seems a number of voters have essentially disqualified him due to his lost time, fair or not.

    Also, the rankings above are not necessarily how the author would vote, but how he thinks the vote would turn out if the voting headline were today instead of in two weeks.

  5. face21000x says: Nov 24, 2013 9:42 AM

    Plus Braxton is a clown as is OSU. I predict a loss to MSU. That will shut all buckeyes up. Maybe if they played someone, it would get you somewhere.

  6. dkhhuey says: Nov 24, 2013 10:06 AM

    @face – the only possible response to your post is to say it is ignorant and completely void of logic and stupidity!

    Braxton Miller is playing at a level that most certainly belongs in the conversation of the Heisman – plain and simple! He is the engine that drives OSU and has earned the right to be in the list!

  7. noffy32 says: Nov 24, 2013 10:13 AM

    @face. Couldn’t have said it better. OSU plays a weak schedule and yet they still think they belong with the big dogs.

  8. gorilladunk says: Nov 24, 2013 10:49 AM

    My only thought on Miller is this: How did his team play in his absence? They never missed a beat! I even heard discussion about how the decision would be difficult to put his replacement back on the bench. That, and the fact he missed substantial playing time, tells me he is a real talent, but he’s not in the Heisman discussion for this year.

  9. richiesnotincognegro says: Nov 24, 2013 11:04 AM

    @face-I should apologize for underestimating your vast knowledge and credentials. Neither were apparent to me until I read your comments here where you put on full display, for all to enjoy, the remarkable thoughts you possess & above average command of our beautiful language. Keep up the good work and please make sure to maintain your accreditation as losing a complex mind like yours would be akin to a Shakespearean tragedy or a Fox sitcom, one or the other.

  10. peopletrains says: Nov 24, 2013 11:41 AM

    I despise the Buckeyes but Miller needs to be in the top 5.

  11. blacknole08 says: Nov 24, 2013 11:59 AM

    richiesnotincognegro says: Nov 24, 2013 8:07 AM

    No Braxton Miller? This article is laughable.

    —————————————————————

    No it’s not. He hasn’t played anyone and Kenny Guiton put up some gaudy numbers while Braxton was out.

    In fact I’d say Guiton looked more like an NFL prospect than Miller.

  12. blacknole08 says: Nov 24, 2013 12:00 PM

    Jameis Winston is the clear winner. Take away this bogus investigation and it’s a no brainer.

  13. theworkhorsebackdotcom says: Nov 24, 2013 12:10 PM

    Winston is the front runner and it should be by a significant margin. If he gets charged in that case however, McCarron slides in to the top spot.

    Too bad for Carey and Williams that they are not getting more national love.

  14. eatitfanboy says: Nov 24, 2013 12:54 PM

    Speaking of Winston, how big of a pickle is the NCAA in if the the Noles finish the season undefeated but Winston is charged with a felony between the end of the regular season and the BCS Championship game?

    What do you think the line would be on a Winston-less FSU v. Alabama game?

  15. jimmy53 says: Nov 24, 2013 1:01 PM

    This is such crap—Winston has not been charged of ANYTHING—he has not even been questioned by TPD. This is gotcha journalism by ESPN and the spotlight-whore SA Willie Meggs’ whispering in their ear.

    This is Jameis Winston’s to lose–he’s earned it! No question. If things change–then they change, bt thay haven’t and word has–they won’t,

  16. jimmy53 says: Nov 24, 2013 1:05 PM

    eatitfanboy:

    If you want to see what a Winston-less Bama-FSU game would look like you should watch the Bama-Auburn game. FSU has a very good run game—losing Winston would make FSU one dimensional (just like Auburn), but they still have a tremendous defense, and good skill positions.

    FSU, in my opinion would lose because Bama would bait the unproven back-up QB into making mistakes and turning the ball over, but (in my biased opinion) it would still be a MUCH better game than Ohio State-Bama.

  17. dkhhuey says: Nov 24, 2013 2:40 PM

    @black – seriously? Since when did NFL potential ever be a category item to win the Heisman… hint: NEVER! It is all about college football!

  18. onlyoneleft says: Nov 24, 2013 7:27 PM

    Winston is not deserving of anything but possibly jail time. Williams or Millee should get it.

  19. fsu01 says: Nov 24, 2013 8:20 PM

    Agree that Winston looks good… But the question I have is since when did this become a QB only award? The only team that made Florida State look like they could be beaten this year was Boston College and they did that on the back on the Andre Williams. So recusing myself from saying Winston because of the obvious bias (holding judgement on the legal issue one way or the other right now), I would say Andre Williams (nearly 900 yards in the last 3 games alone).

  20. OleBamaDude says: Nov 24, 2013 10:00 PM

    While Winston has the better individual stats, due in part because of more playing time, AJ McCarron has higher integrity. In fact, at this time Winston does not have even average integrity. He has abysmal integrity. At the same time, McCarron’s integrity is unquestioned, and he is a role model for others, both as a football player and as a young man.

    The Heisman Trophy goes to the player who best exemplifies both talent and integrity. I don’t know if McCarron should win, but I’m very certain that Winston should not win.

  21. raiderufan says: Nov 25, 2013 7:49 AM

    So a RB has 2,073 yards and 16 TD’s thru 11 games and the best he can get is 5th?

    They should just admit that this is a QB award now and put in with the full CFB Awards show.

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