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CFT Preseason Top 25: No. 2 Oregon

Marcus Mariota

2013 record: 11-2 overall, 7-2 in Pac-12 Conference (2nd in South division)
2013 postseason: Alamo Bowl vs. Texas (30-7 win)
2013 final AP/coaches’ ranking: No. 9/No. 9
Head coach: Mark Helfrich (11-2 overall; 11-2 in one year at Oregon)
Offensive coordinator: Scott Frost (5th year at Oregon)
2013 offensive rankings: 9th rushing offense (273.5 ypg); 21st passing offense (291.5 ypg); 2nd total offense (565 ypg); 4th scoring offense (45.5 ppg)
Returning offensive starters: eight
Defensive coordinator: Don Pellum (22nd year at Oregon)
2013 defensive rankings: 66th rushing defense (165.5 ypg); 21st passing defense (204.5 ypg);  37th total defense (370.1 ypg); 13th scoring defense (20.5 ppg)
Returning defensive starters: five
Location: Eugene, Oregon
Stadium: Autzen Stadium (58,000; FieldTurf)
Last conference title: 2011

THE GOOD
The most underrated aspect of Oregon’s football program is the commitment found within its coaching staff. It’s not to say there hasn’t been turnover in the program. Head coach Chip Kelly left the Ducks prior to last season. Defensive coordinator Nick Allioti retired during the offseason after spending 24 seasons with the program. Instead of rushing out to hire the hottest coach available on the market, the program simply promotes from within. Mark Helfrich is now entering his second season as the team’s head coach after serving as the Ducks’ offensive coordinator the previous four seasons. The team’s new defensive coordinator, Don Pellum, spent 22 years as a full-time assistant. During the last 16 years, Pellum was tasked with coaching the linebackers. While each promotion brings slight tweaks to the system, the influences of Rich Brooks and Mike Bellotti during their tenures as head coach remains a part of the program. The Ducks have continued to build from the day Brooks was hired as their head coach in 1977  to today. As a result of the continuity built within program, Oregon has developed into one of the premier programs in the nation. A program that has the talent to win a national championship this season.

THE BAD
The tempo at which the Ducks operate on offense is always a double-edged sword. While the offense can be impossible to stop at times, the defense can also be gashed by opponents. When the Ducks went to the BCS National Championship Game in Jan. 2011, they surrendered 346 yards per game and the offensive’s time of possession was 27:54 minutes per game. During each of the past three seasons, the Ducks have given up more yards per game and operated at a faster pace. It’s not a good combination. The Ducks have had talent on the defensive side of the football during those years, but they simply didn’t play to the same level that finally led them to the title game. This season isn’t any different. Senior cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is arguably the best cornerback in college football. Defensive lineman Arik Armstead is a considered an early-round prospect for the 2015 NFL draft. Defensive end Tony Washington returns after leading the team with seven sacks last season. The team’s leading tackler, Derrick Malone, is also back in the middle of the defense. There is talent at all three levels of the Ducks defense. Oregon is more than just a flashy offense. The team’s defense has to play at a high level for the Ducks to be a part of the first College Football Playoff.

THE UNKNOWN
Kelly’s approach to offensive line play was there wasn’t much difference between playing guard and tackle in his system. The system hasn’t changed under Helfrich, but the importance of the tackle position is far more pertinent this season. The team’s senior left tackle, Tyler Johnstone, re-tore his ACL at the start of fall camp. It caused Helfrich to reshuffle his offensive line. Junior Andre Yruretagoyena will replace Johnstone on the blindside. There are two issues any time there are major changes along the offensive line. The first is building continuity within the unit to operate at a high level. Due to the team’s heavy zone-blocking scheme and its tempo on offense, this can be especially difficult to establish. The Ducks also lost the leadership and experience Johnstone brought to the lineup after starting 26 straight games. Furthermore, Yruretagoyena will be protecting the blindside of the one of the nations’ top quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota. The No. 1 goal for the Oregon’s offensive line this season is keep Mariota healthy. And that proposition may be a little more difficult with the veteran at left tackle.

MAKE-OR-BREAK GAME: vs. Stanford
There is no other choice here. The Cardinal dashed the Ducks’ national championship aspirations the past two seasons. The two games were evenly matched with Stanford’s win margin at only nine points. But Stanford is as much a mental obstacle for Oregon as it is a physical one. Very few teams have slowed Oregon’s explosive offense in recent years. Yet, Stanford has seemed to find the secret recipe with their physical 3-4 defense. The Ducks simply haven’t been able to gash the Cardinal for big plays. And most of that has to do with a defensive front that consistently plays in the backfield. The Ducks averaged as least 537 yards per game the last two seasons. Stanford has held Oregon at least 120 yards below its average in each contest. Oregon simply hasn’t been able to get on track against Stanford. The Ducks can’t fail against Stanford again this year, or their season will be a major disappointment.

HEISMAN HOPEFUL: QB Marcus Mariota
Let’s compare Mariota’s resume last season to Jameis Winston‘s, shall we? Mariota threw for 3,665 yards, 31 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Mariota also ran for 715 yards and nine touchdowns. Winston, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, threw for 4,057 yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He added 219 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. While Winston was the clear favorite to win the Heisman last season, Mariota wasn’t far behind the redshirt freshman. When last year’s play is considered and  two factors are added into the equation, Mariota could be the favorite to win the trophy this season. There are two reasons why Mariota’s numbers weren’t quite as spectacular as Winston’s in 2013. The Oregon quarterback suffered a slight knee injury during the second half of the season which limited his play, and he played one less game than Winston. A fully healthy Mariota is arguably the best NFL prospect in the entire country. While professional potential doesn’t translate to college football awards, it does exclude Mariota from any excuses if he doesn’t make a national title run with the Ducks this season and capture the school’s first Heisman Trophy.

(Click HERE for the CFT 2014 Preseason Preview Repository)

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5 Responses to “CFT Preseason Top 25: No. 2 Oregon”
  1. longborer69 says: Aug 27, 2014 10:51 AM

    Hmm. I don’t think anyone who saw the games against Stanford the last two years would say the games were evenly matched.

    Two years ago, we lost due to a couple “unusual” plays and missed FGs. Fairly evenly matched, but we should have won handily. Last year, they pushed us around the field, it was not evenly matched at all.

    That said, on the first possession, if Huff and Mariota connect when Huff was open inside the five, who knows how different the game would have been? Or if DAT hadn’t fumbled inside the five? We certainly had some flukes that could have changed the game — but after those two possessions, they simply pushed us around until too late.

    I actually think the key game is the MSU game. If we win that big, we’ll have confidence going into the Stanford game that their style of play isn’t a problem for us.

    Here’s a dark horse Heisman candidate — Ifo Ekpre-Olumu. Best secondary defender in the nation — and apparently he’ll be returning punts this year. If he takes some punts to the house, locks down guys like Ty Montgomery, and adds 8 or 9 picks including a few key pick-sixes in big games, he could get some votes. Mariota is obviously The Man, but voters like players who perform in more than one phase of the game.

    Keep an eye on Devon Allen who apparently is starting at receiver, and obviously has the speed to stretch defenses, and freshman Royce Freeman, who is being talked about as a potential starter despite the presence of Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner. We have an absurd embarrassment of riches at running back.

    Oregon recruits in depth on defense and plays multiple players. The pace isn’t what hurts the defense — not being good enough is what hurts the defense. Based on last year, we really only have one elite player on that side of the ball. We really need our line and linebackers to step up, for Armstead to play up to his potential and our linebackers to learn how to tackle. The secondary should be fine.

    #2 ranking? Depends on the defense. If the receivers come along, the offense will be the best in the country. If the receivers struggle, we’ll only be one of the top five offenses. Losing Johnstone hurts but the line should be superb, the running backs are awesome, the TEs are very good, and Mariota is either the best or second best QB in the country.

    But the defense is unknown. Very good last year, but not elite, and we don’t have many starters back.

  2. cfballfan1 says: Aug 27, 2014 11:04 AM

    Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

    Make or Break 09/06.

  3. noleitup says: Aug 27, 2014 2:51 PM

    I wonder who number 1 is gonna be. The suspense is killing me.

  4. politicallyincorrect says: Sep 5, 2014 4:17 PM

    I am hoping that Oregon’s season ends this weekend…..

  5. politicallyincorrect says: Sep 5, 2014 4:18 PM

    don’t think highly of Mariota either

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