There are four playoff spots still to be filled in the first College Football Playoff. Alabama, Florida State and Oregon all appear to be in good shape if they win their final games and conference championship games. The competition for the fourth and final spot appears to be up for grabs though between Mississippi State, Baylor, TCU and Ohio State for now. UCLA can still wiggle into this fight, but for now those are the four main contenders most would likely agree. And each has their strengths and weaknesses. Ohio State may have the best chance to grab the fourth and final playoff spot.
Ohio State was written off after a loss to Virginia Tech in week two, but the Buckeyes have stormed back into the playoff discussion since and now the Buckeyes threaten to prove the dismissive naysayers wrong. Those criticizing Ohio State cling to the one loss to Virginia Tech, which to some seems to outweigh the overall body of work by Ohio State enough to rule them out of contention. This is silly at this point in November, and it is time to move on to assessing Ohio State.
Here is what we are being led to believe in the College Football Playoff era. First, a team’s overall body of work is being used to determine the best teams. Second, the committee wants us to believe that conference championships will matter. It will still be two more weeks before we see just how much they matter, but if winning a conference championship has enough clout to push one one-loss team ahead of another, this figures to be good news for TCU, Baylor and Ohio State and perhaps not as good news for Mississippi State.
Nothing will ever be able to put lipstick on the pig that is a double-digit loss at home to Virginia Tech, especially with the Hokies now on the verge of not even being eligible for a bowl game. Ohio State’s case would look a little stronger had the Hokies kept it together in ACC play and at least made a run for the ACC Coastal Division championship. Instead, Virginia Tech was taken down by East Carolina and is now resting at the bottom of the ACC Coastal Division with one game to play. But rather than focus on Virginia Tech, instead take a deeper look at what Ohio State has done since losing to Virginia Tech.
Consider Ohio State was throwing a young and inexperienced J.T. Barrett into the fire to start the season after losing potential Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller for the season due to shoulder injury. If the committee takes into account injuries, at some point doesn’t this have to be part of the equation when assessing Ohio State? Barrett showed some promise on the road against Navy to open the season, but was ripe for the picking (off) by Virginia Tech’s defense, which tends to feast on young quarterbacks. Barrett was also making his first start in front of the sold out Ohio Stadium crowd under the bright lights for a national television audience. Since then, Barrett has grown immensely and become a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate himself. It is no coincidence Barrett’s rise has coincided with Ohio State’s return to the playoff discussion.
Ohio State has won two game son the road against teams the College Football Playoff committee has ranked in their most recent playoff rankings, Michigan State and Minnesota. The Buckeyes are third best in the country in third-down conversions. Ohio State has a higher red zone touchdown percentage than any other team in the playoff discussion today. Only Alabama is ranked ahead of Ohio State in total defense among playoff contenders as well. Ohio State is not back in the playoff discussion by accident. They have earned it on offense and defense.
Does Ohio State still need some help in addition to completing its own job? Yes, probably. A dominating victory over a struggling Michigan would help, as would a Big Ten Championship Game against Melvin Gordon and a surging Wisconsin. That might be enough on its own merit in the eyes of the selection committee, but it would help Ohio State if Ole Miss could rebound with a win in the Egg Bowl. Just in case.