You may have already cleared your tables of all of the Thanksgiving fixings, but here at CFT we’re just setting ours up.
From rivalry games with little or nothing on the line but pride to matchups dripping with conference and College Football Playoff implications, the plates served up on Friday and Saturday will be a veritable smorgasbord on the final full week of the 2014 regular season. If storylines whet your appetite, be prepared to gorge yourself as these last two days are full of them.
With that in mind, here’s a portion of what we’ll be paying attention to Power Five-wise over the next 36 hours or so.
PLAYOFF PICTURE CLARIFIED?
In a simplistic and minimalist view, the answer to that is no, it won’t be clarified. It very likely will, however, come into sharper focus.
By most accounts, a two-loss team won’t be in the running for one of the four playoff spots. If that indeed comes to fruition, there are seven teams that still hold out viable playoff aspirations: unbeaten and third-ranked Florida State, as well as the one-loss sextet of No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon, No. 4 Mississippi State, No. 5 TCU, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 7 Baylor.
All seven of those teams play this weekend, and all seven will, to some degree or another, be favored. However, five of those seven games involve rivalries; as we all now, though, when it comes to a rivalry game, point spreads and records are tossed out the window.
Especially in the case of the two SEC squads, the favored team would be wise to be on high alert. So, on a scale of 0-10, with 0 representing “no chance in hell” and 10 being “DEFCON 1 COACH-SPEAK AHEAD,” here are the five rivalry games involving the seven highest-ranked teams:
Alabama-Auburn, 9
Were it not for Auburn entering the Iron Bowl having lost three of its last five games against SEC teams, and it being played in Tuscaloosa, this matchup would’ve rated a solid 10. Not only is Alabama playing for an SEC title and the right to stay in the playoff mix, they are also looking to exact a little revenge for last year’s Kick-Six. Even if they wanted to, don’t look for Nick Saban & Company to let his players look past The Plainsmen in any way, shape or form.
Oregon-Oregon State, 5
OSU comes into the Civil War reeling, dropping six of its eight Pac-12 games thus far. Oregon, though, doesn’t have to look back any further than last year to realize they’d better not peek past their in-state rivals. In 2013, the Beavers, losers of four straight coming in, put a scare into the 12th-ranked Ducks and came away one point shy, 36-35, from upsetting UO in Eugene. With this edition of the rivalry being played in Corvallis, and the Beavers looking to snap a six-game losing streak in the series, the Ducks can’t afford to allow their collective minds to wander beyond Saturday night.
Florida State-Florida, 7
With a very quick glance, it all seems to favor FSU. The Seminoles are riding a 27-game winning streak, while the Gators are about to launch a national search for a new head coach. The thing is, the ‘Noles have escaped with a handful of wins over the last couple of months. Meanwhile, the Gators have actually improved over the last month, and their defense (11th in scoring, 23rd in yards) will be one of the best the Seminoles have faced all season. I’m not saying Florida will upset Florida State in Tallahassee; all I’m saying is that the conditions are ripe for one. What’s the axiom, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it? 2014 Seminoles, meet the 2004 Seminoles. Enough said.
Mississippi State-Ole Miss, 10
The Egg Bowl is similar to the Iron Bowl with one exception: the reeling team is playing at home. After starting the season 7-0, and moving up to No. 3 in the rankings, the Rebels have stumbled to a 1-3 record in their last four games. The Rebels are still very talented and extremely dangerous, something the Bulldogs are well aware of. This is certainly an Egg Bowl for the Ages, and one that could propel MSU into the playoff rotation. Or see those dreams come crashing down with a loss. Neither outcome would surprise much.
Ohio State-Michigan, 4
You never say never when it comes to The Game, but this is one of those times where it would make some semblance of sense. UM is limping to the finish line of what’s expected to be the final game of the Brady Hoke era, with only bowl-eligibility and pride left to play for. The 2014 version of The Game is being played in Columbus, and OSU has become a much better team since its still-inexplicable loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2. An OSU loss would be shocking, but not shocking.
CONFERENCE CHASES WIND DOWN
By the time the clock strikes midnight Saturday, all Power Five divisional races will be decided. Right now, teams from both the ACC Atlantic (Florida State) and Coastal (Georgia Tech) as well as the Big Ten East (Ohio State) and Pac-12 North (Oregon) have secured spots in their respective conference’s championship games. That leaves the Big Ten West, the Pac-12 South and the SEC East and West as the only Power Five divisions without a declared winner.
What follows are the various clinching scenarios for each unresolved Power Five division:
BIG TEN WEST
The winner of the Week 14 matchup featuring Wisconsin (6-1) and Minnesota (5-2) will claim the West title.
PAC-12 SOUTH
There are three teams at 6-2: UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona. The former plays Stanford, while the latter two square off in the Territorial Cup.
Arizona wins the South if... It beats Arizona State, UCLA loses to Stanford
Arizona State wins the South if... It beats Arizona, UCLA loses to Stanford
UCLA wins the South if... It beats Stanford. UCLA holds head-to-head over UA and ASU.
SEC EAST
Missouri is 6-1 while Georgia is 6-2 and finished with conference play. If Mizzou beats Arkansas, they are the East champs. If Mizzou loses to Arkansas, UGA is the East champ based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
SEC WEST
Alabama and Mississippi State are both 6-1, but the former holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the latter. Thus, if Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl, they clinch the West. Also, if Alabama loses to Auburn and Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss, UA clinches the West. The only way MSU can win the West is if they beat Ole Miss and Alabama loses to Auburn.
Incidentally, there are no scenarios in the division-less Big 12 in which a team can clinch the conference in Week 14. There are three teams remaining with a shot at the league title and what could be a spot in the CFP: TCU (7-1, beat Texas Thursday night), Baylor (6-1, vs. 4-7 Texas Tech Saturday) and Kansas State (6-1, vs. 3-8 Kansas Saturday). TCU plays 2-8 Iowa State in Week 15, while the latter two face each other. With that in mind, here’s a bonus Week 15 scenario for the conference, provided all three teams win this weekend:
Baylor wins the Big 12 if... it beats Kansas State; BU holds head-to-head over TCU
Kansas State wins the Big 12 if... it beats Baylor, TCU loses to Iowa State
TCU wins the Big 12 if... beats Iowa State, Baylor loses to Kansas State; TCU holds head-to-head over K-State
HEISMAN STATEMENTS
If you give any credence to the gambling degenerates, it’s a two-horse race for the 2014 Heisman: Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota and Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon. There are certainly others who are on the periphery of the discussion, and some could wrap-up invites to New York City this weekend -- Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett, Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper among them -- but the wagering websites are likely correct; it’s down to Mariota and Gordon, and likely in that order.
So, which one of the two has the best chance to make what could be a final statement, at least for Gordon? Oregon goes on the road to Oregon State, while Wisconsin hosts Minnesota. Let’s go to a mini defensive Tale of the Tape:
Oregon State: 84th in pass defense, giving up 237.3 yards per game. They’ve allowed 16 touchdown passes in 11 games, tied for 54th nationally. Their 25 sacks are good for T-48th.
Minnesota: 52nd in rush defense, giving up 154.6 yards per game; Gordon averages nearly 200 yards per game by himself. The Gophers are tied for 62nd in tackles for loss, but have only given up 14 rushing touchdowns this season (38th nationally).
At least on paper, both Mariota and Gordon are set up for what could be potentially be big games statistically this weekend. Whether it plays out that way remains to be seen.
HOT SEAT WATCH
At the moment, there are five head coach openings at the FBS level. Within a week, that number could easily see a threefold increase or more; by the end of December, it may have quadrupled.
By now you know the list of coaches whose heads are possibly, and in some cases likely, headed for the chopping block. From Michigan’s Brady Hoke to Hawaii’s Norm Chow to Virginia’s Mike London (wait, scratch that) to Nebraska’s Bo Pelini to Iowa State’s Paul Rhoads, there are at least a dozen coaches whose seats are hot enough that even a win in a rivalry game likely won’t be enough to save their jobs.
Front and center amongst the potentially unemployed is Hoke, followed closely by one his Big Ten brethren.
Hoke has win totals that have gone from 11 his first year in 2011 to 8 to 7 to 5 during Hoke’s four seasons in Ann Arbor, coinciding with the Wolverines’ roster transitioning from mainly Rich Rodriguez‘s recruits to mostly Hoke’s. He’s on the verge of sending the Wolverines home for the bowling season for the first time since 2009. With an expected loss in The Game Saturday, Hoke would be 2-6 against rivals Michigan State and Ohio State; more distressing for fans and school officials alike is that the gap between the programs is even bigger than the record indicates. For the umpteenth time, we’re at the when, not if, stage of Hoke Watch 2014.
Aside from Florida and Michigan, Nebraska is another storied program that could very well come open. And, according to some, should come open.
It’s not that the Cornhuskers are a bad program under Pelini, it’s that they’re not even remotely the Cornhuskers of Tom Osborne. Or, more to the point, they’re not even the Cornhuskers of Frank Solich. In Pelini’s seven seasons, NU lost exactly four games the first six and is sitting on three in the seventh; in Osborne’s 25 seasons, NU never lost four games in a season and only lost three games in a season eight times. Certainly Osborne is a lofty barometer for Pelini, but it’s not beyond the pale to think that the Cornhuskers should’ve returned to the national stage at some point during the current coach’s seven-year tenure. Hell, Solich lost three or fewer games in four of his six seasons -- either one or two losses in three of those years -- and can claim one conference championship to go along with two other division titles; Pelini’s won none in a tenure that’s one year beyond what Solich got from the university.
Pelini’s job is certainly safer than Hoke’s, but it’s far from secure. If this weekend’s game against Iowa is his last, it wouldn’t be the shock most would assume.
BOWLING FOR DOLLARS
This year there will be 38 bowl games, meaning there’s a need for 76 teams to fill those spots. Entering Week 14, there were 71 teams who were already bowl eligible; that number reached 72 thanks to 6-6 Ohio’s win Tuesday night.
That means the 19 teams sitting at the five-win mark entering Friday’s action could be fighting for the four spots remaining at the bowl table. Of those 19 teams, 11 hail from Power Five conferences -- Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech (ACC); Oklahoma State (Big 12); Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern (Big Ten); Cal, Oregon State (Pac-12); and Kentucky, Tennessee (SEC).
Saturday, Virginia plays Virginia Tech and Illinois plays Northwestern, so there are actually only nine Power Five bowl possibles remaining. The Hokies are looking to extend its bowl streak to 22 straight seasons, the second-longest in the country behind Florida State’s soon-to-be 33. The Illini, meanwhile, are not only fighting for a seat at the bowl table but could be playing for the job of head coach Tim Beckman.
Michigan (No. 6 Ohio State), Oregon State (No. 2 Oregon) and Kentucky (No. 22 Louisville) will have tough postseason rows to hoe as they all face ranked teams in games that will decide their bowl eligibility, with the added weight for the Wolverines and Wildcats of having to do it on the road. Oklahoma State is off this weekend, but will travel to Norman next weekend to face No. 20 Oklahoma in Bedlam.
Finally, if Kentucky and Tennessee both win, it would mean 13 of the 14 teams in the SEC would be bowl-eligible, the lone exception being 3-8 Vanderbilt.