Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is going to win the Heisman Trophy tonight. The only question, they say, is by how much. (And if he doesn’t, some say, the award means nothing.)
We’re not here to speculate about vote totals - the Heisman folks have put that cottage industry out of business - but we can see how Mariota stacks up again recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks.
For purposes of this study, we’ll look at Heisman winning quarterbacks since 2000 and, to account for different styles of offense and the overall evolution of football over the past decade and a half, try to measure things on a per play basis as much as possible.
First, let’s recap the Heisman-winning signal callers since 2000, when college football’s most prestigious honor shifted to becoming a much more quarterback-centric award:
2000 - Chris Weinke, Florida State
2001 - Eric Crouch, Nebraska
2002 - Carson Palmer, USC
2003 - Jason White, Oklahoma
2004 - Matt Leinart, USC
2006 - Troy Smith, Ohio State
2007 - Tim Tebow, Florida
2008 - Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
2010 - Cam Newton, Auburn
2011 - Robert Griffin III, Baylor
2012 - Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
2013 - Jameis Winston, Florida State
Without further ado:
Passing Efficiency
1. Griffin - 189.5
2. Mariota - 186.3
3. Winston - 184.9
4. Newton - 182.1
5. Bradford - 180.8
Yards Per Attempt
1. Griffin - 10.7
2. Winston - 10.6
3. Mariota - 10.2
Newton - 10.2
5. Bradford - 9.8
Completion Percentage
1. Griffin - 72.4
2. Mariota - 68.3
3. Manziel - 68.0
4. Bradford - 67.9
5. Winston - 66.9
Tebow - 66.9
Touchdown Percentage
1. Newton - 10.7
2. Bradford - 10.4
3. Mariota - 10.2
4. Winston - 9.6
Smith - 9.6
Interception Percentage
1. Mariota - 0.5
2. Griffin - 1.5
Leinart - 1.5
4. Bradford - 1.7
Tebow - 1.7
Yards Per Carry
1. Manziel - 7.0
2. Mariota - 5.7
3. Newton - 5.6
4. Crouch - 5.5
5. Tebow - 4.3
Rushing Touchdown Percentage
1. Mariota - 12.0
2. Bradford - 11.9
3. Tebow - 11.0
4. Manziel - 10.4
5. Crouch - 8.9
Yards Per Play
1. Mariota - 9.1
Winston - 9.1
Bradford - 9.1
4. Weinke - 8.8
5. Griffin - 8.6
(Mariota breaks the tie by averaging 9.11 yards per play, slightly ahead of Winston at 9.08 and Bradford at 9.06.)
Touchdown Percentage
1. Mariota - 10.8
2. Bradford - 10.5
3. Tebow - 9.8
4. Newton - 9.3
5. White - 8.3
For the record, Mariota’s stats this year stand at 254-of-372 passing for 3,773 yards with 38 touchdowns and two interceptions to go with 117 rushes for 669 yards and 14 touchdowns, plus one reception for a 26-yard touchdown. While his total numbers don’t stack up to every-snap workhorses like Tebow, Newton and Manziel - Manziel averaged a full 10 more touches a game than Mariota this season, and Newton had twice as many rushes - Mariota gets more done with the touches he gets. Mariota nearly produces a first down every play, and registers a touchdown every 10 touches.
Mariota is the only quarterback to show up in all nine of our hand-picked statistics. All in all, No. 8 either holds his own or surpasses the very best quarterbacks that the Golden Age of Offense has to offer, and his 2014 campaign sets a new standard for dual-threat efficiency.
Oh, and one more thing. Taking the spread offense back a decade is just simply unfair, like bringing an AK-47 to the Revolutionary War.