As you no doubt know by now, at least two and as many as five 5-7 FBS teams will “earn” bids in the 2015-16 bowl cycle. Now we know exactly which teams are in the hunt for some sub-.500 postseason play.
According to Brett McMurphy of ESPN.com, 5-6 Kansas State will receive a bowl bid regardless of whether they win or lose this weekend. If K-State can beat West Virginia Saturday in Little Manhattan, they would hit the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility. If they lose, their Academic Progress rate (APR) numbers, which will be used to determine which 5-7 teams are eligible, are second among the five-win schools and would give them a bowl berth regardless.
The 5-7 teams with the highest APR scores include Nebraska (985), Missouri and Kansas State (976), Minnesota and San Jose State (975), Illinois and Rice (973). To their credit, Mizzou has already publicly declared that they will not accept a bowl bid. The other 5-7 teams, including the Cornhuskers, have reportedly said they would jump at the opportunity.
In addition to K-State, Georgia State and South Alabama could both reach six wins with a victory Saturday over Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, respectively. As laid out by McMurphy, below are all of the possible scenarios involving the remaining teams with bowl eligibility hopes:-- KSU, Georgia State and South Alabama all win: KSU bowl-eligible with six wins; Nebraska is in and either Minnesota or San Jose State would be selected.
-- KSU wins, Georgia State and South Alabama go 1-1: KSU bowl-eligible; Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State go to a bowl.
-- KSU wins, Georgia State and South Alabama go 0-2: KSU bowl-eligible; Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State go to a bowl, and either Illinois or Rice would be selected.
-- KSU loses, Georgia State and South Alabama go 2-0: Nebraska and Kansas State go to a bowl, and either Minnesota or San Jose State would be selected.
-- KSU loses, Georgia State and South Alabama go 1-1: Nebraska, Kansas State, Minnesota and San Jose State go to a bowl.
-- KSU, Georgia State and South Alabama all lose: Nebraska, Kansas State, Minnesota and San Jose State go to a bowl, and either Illinois or Rice would be selected.