WHO: No. 4 Oklahoma (11-1) vs. No. 1 Clemson (13-0)
WHAT: The 81st Capital One Orange Bowl and first of two College Football Playoff semifinals
WHERE: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
WHEN: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN
THE SKINNY: It all seems so simple. Ohio State christened the inaugural College Football Playoff by overcoming an early loss and charging from the back of the pack (16th in the initial rankings) to upend the No. 1 seed in the semifinals and take the championship. This year, Oklahoma overcame an initial loss and a back-of-the-pack initial ranking (15th) and enters tonight’s game as the betting favorite despite their No. 4 ranking.
But that back-of-the-envelope calculation ignores just how stinking good this Clemson team is. The Tigers boast a ferocious front that ranks fifth nationally in sacks, second in tackles for loss and second in third down defense. They rank 23rd in rushing offense and, according to every electorate in college football, field the best quarterback in the country in sophomore Deshaun Watson.
And, by the way, Clemson beat this same Oklahoma team 40-6 in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl.
Except this isn’t the same Sooners team. The defense jumped from good to elite. The offense has a clear direction under new coordinator Lincoln Riley. And new quarterback Baker Mayfield has given the team an entirely new identity and attitude.
It’ll be the latter that creates a different outcome this time around.
THE PREDICTION: Clemson 35, Oklahoma 30