Predictions 101 — Week 11

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West Virginia ruined our shot to sweep the entire dozen last week. Well, at least we had Louisville covering.

It’s just too bad that we didn’t have more success vs. “the number,” going just 6-6 in Week 10.

Naturally, we had the right call in the so-called Game of the Century and continued to deliver in the “two more you shouldn’t ignore” section, running our record down there to 16-3.

Once again, skip down to the bottom. That should be our motto.

After 120 games, we’re 69-47-2 (two games weren’t on the board), with a straight-up record of 91-29.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Nov. 10 thru Sat., Nov. 12)

1) No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Stanford
Sat., Nov. 12 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The Ducks have done an admirable job of trying to reinvent the game of football. Obviously, what Chip Kelly has brought to Eugene is wildly successful. The vast majority of opponents can’t keep up with the pace of the super speedy quack attack.

However, as much as that is the a new reality in the Pac-12, so is the fact that the Ducks have been unsuccessful against a certain type of ball club.

Stanford (9-0, 7-0), playing at home on The Farm, fits that bill.

We’ve seen it before with Oregon (8-1, 6-0). Remember the Rose Bowl two years ago? Last year’s BCS Championship Game? This year’s opener? In those games against Ohio State, Auburn and LSU, the Ducks came up with a not-so-grand total of 63 points. Our math isn’t always so good, but that seems like an average of just 21 points against elite teams that play with a high level of physicality.

You might not consider the Cardinal to be worthy of inclusion in that club because of a lack of team speed, and you’d be right. But we’re not calling for a stonewalling of the Oregon spread-option, just that The Tree will stand tall in the end.

Although injuries have started to mount in Palo Alto, superstar quarterback Andrew Luck and that sledgehammer Stanford offense will limit the Ducks’ offensive opportunities and have yet to misfire in the red zone (52-of-52).

Opening point spread: Stanford by 3

The pick: Stanford 32-26

Final: Oregon 53-30

2) No. 10 Virginia Tech at No. 20 Georgia Tech
Thurs., Nov. 10 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. “Coach Hedanz” also would like to go on record with his disagreement with the prediction above. Things are not always harmonious within the P101 consortium.

The Hokies roll into the ATL with their conference destiny in their own hands. Win out and a rematch with Clemson could be on the horizon.

Oddly enough, the Yellow Jackets recently got back on track by beating the only team to knock off Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1), those same Clemson Tigers.

This matchup features the Hokie rushing defense (fifth in the country) against the Jacket run game (second in the

country). In Georgia Tech’s two losses, its ground game was held in check. Although Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2) has an explosive passing attack, its success in that department depends on its ability to run the football.

VT will win that particular battle with aggressive yet disciplined defense, thus grounding GT’s aerial assault.

Expect some Beamer Ball magic in the special teams to ignite this one and put the game away for the visitors.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 29-17

Final: Virginia Tech 37-26

3) No. 19 Nebraska at No. 12 Penn State
Sat., Nov. 12 — Noon ET, ESPN

No matter what unfolds in the days since posting this prediction, this contest will be unlike any of the previous 1,219 games in Penn State football history.

As difficult as it may be, we’ll try to focus on football here … the only certainty being that a game will be played.

If Nebraska (7-2, 3-2 in Big Ten) didn’t have problems of its own, it would run a larger risk of getting swept up in the controversies that have engulfed Penn State (8-1, 5-0). At the top of the Cornhusker to-do list is shoring up a defense that yielded 468 yards in a deflating 28-25 loss to Northwestern last week in Lincoln.

The Nittany Lions, who rank near the bottom of the Big Ten and 88th nationally in total offense, aren’t equipped to take full advantage of Nebraska’s defense if it remains in a giving mood. Penn State’s attack is heavily focused on in-form tailback Silas Redd, who has already gone over 1,000 yards.

Redd’s counterpart, Husker junior Rex Burkhead will be the key. If he is able to break into triple-digits on the road, which under normal circumstances would be highly unlikely, Happy Valley gets even sadder.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 2

The pick: Nebraska 23-17

Final: Nebraska 17-14

4) TCU at No. 5 Boise State
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, Versus

Already rivals due to their BCS-buster brotherhood and a pair of bowl clashes within the past three years, this de facto MWC Championship Game is the first — and likely only — conference matchup between these two ambitious programs.

It’ll also be the first time TCU (7-2, 4-0 in MWC) sets foot on the blue stuff in Boise, and we know how that usually ends up.

In addition, Boise State (8-0, 3-0) might not recognize this particular edition of the Horned Frog defense, which bares little resemblance to the rock-solid units it faced at the Poinsettia and Fiesta Bowls following the 2008 and 2009 seasons. TCU allowed a total of 90 points in its two losses this season to Baylor and SMU.

One can be certain that Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore, who didn’t toss a TD pass in either of the previous two meetings versus the Frogs, will enjoy one of his typical Xbox 360 afternoons.

Opening point spread: Boise State by 13

The pick: Boise State 42-24

Final: TCU 36-35

5) No. 24 Auburn at No. 14 Georgia
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

When we last saw these Tigers and Bulldogs on the field together, punches were being thrown after a game that included 10 personal foul penalties.

Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, who was knocked out of last year’s game by a late hit that fueled the fire of this ancient rivalry, will have much more fun this time around. He ranks first in the SEC in passing efficiency and Auburn (6-3, 4-2) ranks next to last in the league in passing efficiency defense.

Georgia (7-2, 5-1) also will be bolstered by the return of freshman tailback Isaiah Crowell, who served a one-game suspension last week, sitting out the ridiculous 63-16 annihilation of New Mexico State.

The Dawgs claim they won’t be scoreboard watching, but if Florida beats South Carolina earlier in the afternoon, they can clinch the Eastern Division with a win over the defending BCS champs, who have been anything but Tigers on the road this season.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 13

The pick: Georgia 31-14

Final: Georgia 45-7

6) Tennessee at No. 8 Arkansas
Sat., Nov. 12 — 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Only two teams in the country have a worse rushing offense than the Volunteers. Averaging just 87 yards per game and 2.6 per carry is bad enough, but when you combine that with a true freshman quarterback making his first start on the road, you’ve got some serious problems.

Tennessee (4-5, 0-5 in SEC) doesn’t stand a chance of sticking with Arkansas (8-1, 4-1), which is averaging nearly 38 points per game.

Expect the hungry Hogs to come up with a focused and crisp effort, further motivated by the fact that a 44-28 victory over South Carolina somehow translated into a drop in the BCS standings.

The price here seems rather cheap.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 13

The pick: Arkansas 38-16

Final: Arkansas 49-7

7) Wake Forest at No. 9 Clemson
Sat., Nov. 12 — noon ET, ESPNU

The Tigers have had an extra week to stew about their ragged performance in the 31-17 loss at Georgia Tech. That’s not good news for the Demon Deacons, who are solidly headed in the wrong direction.

Unless you consider barely beating Duke, 24-23, something to brag about, Wake Forest (5-4, 4-2 in ACC) has been slip-sliding away ever since wrapping up a 35-30 victory over Florida State on Oct. 8.

Coming into the game against the Yellow Jackets, Clemson (8-1, 5-1) was averaging more than 40 points per game, but didn’t get anywhere near that. Starting tailback Andre Ellington not playing in that contest due to an ankle injury had a lot to do with that as it took a pair of freshmen to replace him and both lost fumbles.

Ellington will be back on Saturday and so should the Tigers.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 15 1/2

The pick: Clemson 38-19

Final: Clemson 31-28

8) No. 4 Alabama at Mississippi State
Sat., Nov. 12 — 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

Crimson Tide running back Trent Richardson wasn’t able to buck the odds and have a Heisman highlight night versus LSU last week. But the 89 rushing yards and 80 receiving yards that he did gain weren’t really expected either.

Imagine what kind of numbers he’s going to have against the Bulldogs, who rank eighth in the SEC in both rushing defense and total defense.

Alabama (8-1, 5-1 in SEC) won’t need any field goals to beat Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4), which has exhibited a lack of quality depth in recent weeks, particularly on offense.

The Bulldogs haven’t come within 20 points of the Tide in their last three meetings and have lost 20 consecutive games to top-10 foes.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 17

The pick: Alabama 34-10

Final: Alabama 24-7

9) No. 2 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Sat., Nov. 12 — Noon ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

With each passing week, and especially now that they’ve elevated themselves into BCS Championship Game contention, the pressure mounts for Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0 in Big 12).

Two road wins over a pair of teams at the bottom of the conference standings before the Bedlam showdown with Oklahoma for all the marbles. Easy, right?

“Not so fast, my friend,” as Coach Corso likes to say.

If the Red Raiders’ upset of then-No. 3 Oklahoma in Norman three weeks ago doesn’t make them a dangerous barking dog, maybe the Cowboys can be reminded of what happened in Lubbock on the first week in November in 2008 when the Red Raiders handed No. 1 Texas their first loss of the season.

Surprisingly, the Pokes’ wins in this series the past two years have been relatively low scoring, and we expect that trend to continue with the visitors playing a little more close to the vest to prevent costly mistakes and Texas Tech (5-4, 2-4) fired up to make amends for the embarrassments the past couple weeks.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 19 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 27-20

Final: Oklahoma State 66-6

10) Miami (Fla.) at Florida State
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

This matchup used to be a shoe-in to be at the top of this list rather than the bottom, but you still can’t deny the awesome appeal of the annual renewal of this rivalry.

Lamar Miller, the first 1,000-yard rusher in Coral Gables since 2002, is the best back your neighbor hasn’t heard of, and Hurricane quarterback Jacory Harris is quietly in tip-top form. Together they give Miami (5-4, 3-3 in ACC) a fighting chance against Florida State (6-3, 4-2), which ranks first in the league and fourth in the nation in total defense.

Incredibly, the favorite has lost the last six meetings.

Sometimes we’ll buck a bizarre trend because it figures to end. But we can’t go all the way. We just won’t pass up the freebie points.

Opening point spread: Florida State by 9 1/2

The pick: Florida State 27-23

Final: Florida State 23-19

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Washington at No. 18 USC
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, FX

Is there a team in the country that cares more about numbers than the Trojans?

Witness last Friday’s 42-17 victory at Colorado, where USC (7-2, 4-2 in Pac-12) shamelessly sought and captured a six-touchdown night for quarterback Matt Barkley. We won’t even go into that whole final score mess that erupted after Troy’s 23-14 (or 17-14) win over Utah … oops, we just did.

Washington (6-3, 4-2) has an even worse pass defense than the Buffaloes, ranking dead last in the conference and 113th in the nation (allowing 283 yards through the air per game).

Those numbers seem to spell doom for the Dawgs, but let’s not forget that Steve Sarkisian has won both of his previous games against his previous employer.

Opening point spread: USC by 13

The pick: USC 34-27

Final: USC 40-17

Western Kentucky at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Nov. 12 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Normally we jump all over games like this, figuring that a drastic emotional drop-off will translate into something that will fall within the massive margin established by our friends in the desert. But this one is a bit tricky.

The freshly crowned “Game of the Century” champions are on top of world, after out-defensing Alabama, 9-6.

Western Kentucky (5-4, 5-1 in Sun Belt) prevailed in a scoring-challenged struggle of its own, edging Florida International, 10-9, on a walk-off field goal to run their winning streak to five games. All five of those victories have been in Sun Belt play, putting the Hilltoppers in position to capture the conference crown.

That’s pretty heady stuff for a program that has never played in a bowl game and won only two league games within the previous two seasons. So in a sense, WKU has bigger — yet smaller — fish to fry. What the Hilltoppers really need to do is get out of Death Valley alive (and with their paycheck) and get ready for North Texas and Troy.

Besides, what do you think is going to happen when a team ranked 101st in both scoring offense and total offense goes against the Tigers’ NFL-caliber defense, which can score as well?

Opening point spread: LSU by 41 1/2

The pick: LSU 52-0

Final: LSU 42-9

Week 11 record: 10-2
Total: 101-31

Ole Miss LT Greg Little declares for NFL draft

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It’s possible that the first offensive tackle off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft just joined the draft.

Ole Miss left tackle Greg Little announced Monday he will enter the draft early, declaring after his junior season.

“It has been an honor and a privilege to represent the prestigious Ole Miss. However, after several in depth discussions with my family, I have chosen to declare for the 2019 NFL Draft,” Little wrote in a note posted to his Twitter account.

A consensus 5-star recruit and the No. 1 offensive tackle in the Class of 2016, Little played to his billing from the moment he arrived in Oxford. He was a First Team Freshman All-SEC honoree by the league’s coaches in 2016 after appearing in all 13 games and starting five as a true freshman, a Second Team All-SEC player as a sophomore after starting all 12 games at left tackle as a sophomore, and then a First Team All-SEC player this season.

The Allen, Texas, native was also a finalist for the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award as the top college football player with Texas ties.

Ole Miss names ex-Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre defensive coordinator

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Mike MacIntyre has a new coaching gig for 2019. The former Colorado head coach has been named the new defensive coordinator of Ole Miss, the Rebels football program announced today.

“I could not be more excited to add Mike’s leadership, values and high-level experience to our program,” Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke said in a released statement. “Throughout our years together at Duke and Ole Miss, I have seen firsthand his ability to turn around a defense, and I look forward to seeing his veteran influence on that side of the ball. Mike is also a tremendous recruiter and should make an immediate impact as we assemble this important class.”

This will be the second time with the Ole Miss program for MacIntyre. MacIntyre previously coached at Ole Miss from 1999 through 2002 as a wide receivers coach and later a defensive backs coach. MacIntyre and Luke were on the same staff in 1999 when the current Rebels head coach was starting his coaching career as a graduate assistant. Luke moved on to be an offensive line coach the following season at Murray State but returned to Ole Miss in 2002 to fill the same role in addition to taking on coaching tight ends. MacIntyre took his coaching career to the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys after the 2002 season.

MacIntyre was fired by Colorado as head coach on Nov. 18, prior to the end of the regular season.

Kyler Murray leads AP All-American team; Tagovailoa named to second team

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Associated Press Player of the Year and Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray of Oklahoma was named First-Team All-American by the AP on Monday. Murray was one of 10 players from a College Football Playoff team named an All-American player by the AP, including Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, Clemson defensive linemen Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins, and Notre Dame cornerback Julian Love.

Alabama led all teams with six players named to either the first, second or third team All-American rosters by the AP, four of which being named to the first team to also lead all schools. Clemson and Oklahoma each landed four All-Americans and Oklahoma had two players named to an All-American team by the AP.

Below is the full list of first, second and third All-American teams released by the AP for the 2018 season:

FIRST TEAM

OFFENSE

Quarterback — Kyler Murray, junior, Oklahoma

Running backs — Jonathan Taylor, sophomore, Wisconsin; Darrell Henderson, junior, Memphis

Tackles — Jonah Williams, junior, Alabama; Mitch Hyatt, senior, Clemson

Guards — Beau Benzschawel, senior, Wisconsin; Bunchy Stallings, senior, Kentucky

Center — Garrett Bradbury, senior, North Carolina State

Tight end — Jace Sternberger, junior, Texas A&M

Wide receivers — Jerry Jeudy, sophomore, Alabama; Marquise Brown, junior, Oklahoma

All-purpose player — Rondale Moore, freshman, Purdue

Kicker — Andre Szmyt, freshman, Syracuse

DEFENSE

Ends — Clelin Ferrell, junior, Clemson; Sutton Smith, junior, Northern Illinois

Tackles — Quinnen Williams, junior, Alabama; Christian Wilkins, senior, Clemson

Linebackers — Josh Allen, senior, Kentucky; Devin White, junior, LSU; Ben Burr-Kirven, senior, Washington

Cornerbacks — Deandre Baker, senior, Georgia; Julian Love, junior, Notre Dame

Safeties — Grant Delpit, sophomore, LSU; Deionte Thompson, junior, Alabama

Punter — Braden Mann, junior, Texas A&M

SECOND TEAM

OFFENSE

Quarterback — Tua Tagovailoa, sophomore, Alabama

Running backs — Travis Etienne, sophomore, Clemson; Trayveon Williams, junior, Texas A&M

Tackles — Dalton Risner, senior, Kansas State; Andrew Thomas, sophomore, Georgia

Guards — Dru Samia, senior, Oklahoma; Michael Dieter, senior, Wisconsin

Center — Ross Pierschbacher, senior, Alabama

Tight end — T.J, Hockenson, sophomore, Iowa

Wide receivers — Tylan Wallace, sophomore, Oklahoma State; Andy Isabella, senior, Massachusetts

All-purpose player — Greg Dortch, sophomore, Wake Forest

Kicker — Cole Tracy, senior, LSU

DEFENSE

Ends — Montez Sweat, senior, Mississippi State; Jachai Polite, junior, Florida

Tackles — Jerry Tillery, senior, Notre Dame; Gerald Willis III, senior, Miami

Linebackers — Devin Bush, junior, Michigan; David Long Jr., junior, West Virginia; Joe Dineen, senior, Kansas

Cornerbacks — Greedy Williams, sophomore, LSU; Byron Murphy, sophomore, Washington

Safeties — Taylor Rapp, junior, Washington; Amani Hooker, junior, Iowa

Punter — Mitch Wishnowsky, senior, Utah

THIRD TEAM

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks — Dwayne Haskins, sophomore, Ohio State

Running backs — Benny Snell, junior, Kentucky; Eno Benjamin, sophomore, Arizona State

Tackles — Andre Dillard, senior, Washington State; Cody Ford, junior, Oklahoma

Guards — Terrone Prescod, senior, North Carolina State; Chris Lindstrom, senior, Boston College

Center — Michael Jordan, junior, Ohio State

Tight end — Noah Fant, junior, Iowa

Wide Receivers — A.J. Brown, junior, Mississippi; David Sills V, senior, West Virginia

All-purpose player — J.J. Taylor, sophomore, Arizona

Kicker — Matt Gay, senior, Utah

DEFENSE

Ends — Chase Winovich, senior, Michigan; Jaylon Ferguson, senior, Louisiana Tech

Tackles — Jeffery Simmons, junior, Mississippi State; Ed Oliver, junior, Houston

Linebackers — Paddy Fisher, sophomore, Northwestern; David Woodward, sophomore, Utah State; Te’Von Coney, senior, Notre Dame

Cornerbacks — Hamp Cheevers, junior, Boston College; Lavert Hill, junior, Michigan

Safeties — Andre Cisco, freshman, Syracuse; Jonathan Abram, senior, Mississippi State

Punter — Jason Smith, sophomore, Cincinnati

Oklahoma State QB John Kolar announces transfer to Iowa State to play with brother

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Oklahoma State should have a bit of a quarterback competition going into the 2019 season, but John Kolar will not be a part of it. Kolar announced his decision to transfer to another Big 12 school on Sunday night. He’s heading to Iowa State, where his brother Charlie Kolar plays tight end.

“Beyond excited to announce my commitment to finish my academic and athletic career at Iowa State University,” Kolar announce din a brief statement on Twitter. “The opportunity to play alongside my brother in a program as special as this one was an opportunity I couldn’t pass up.”

Kolar appeared in just one game in his time at Oklahoma State, in which he attempted two passes with one completion for eight yards and rushed twice for a gain of 18 yards for the Cowboys in 2016. Given his history at Oklahoma State, it stood to reason he was not going to be a factor in the Oklahoma State offense in 2019. How much of a role he ends up having at Iowa State is also a question as the Cyclones are pretty set at the quarterback as well with freshman Brock Purdy showing what he can do this season and sophomore Zeb Noland still in the mix as well. But, as his statement suggests, the chance to close out his college career with his brother is pretty special too.

Charlie Kolar was Iowa State’s sixth-leading receiver this season with 11 receptions for 137 yards and three touchdowns. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell was also just given a contract extension, and should the situation present itself, it would be nice if Campbell finds an opportunity to allow the Kolar brothers to connect for a touchdown next season.

As a graduate transfer, John Kolar will be eligible to play at Iowa State next season.