Predictions 101 — Week 11

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West Virginia ruined our shot to sweep the entire dozen last week. Well, at least we had Louisville covering.

It’s just too bad that we didn’t have more success vs. “the number,” going just 6-6 in Week 10.

Naturally, we had the right call in the so-called Game of the Century and continued to deliver in the “two more you shouldn’t ignore” section, running our record down there to 16-3.

Once again, skip down to the bottom. That should be our motto.

After 120 games, we’re 69-47-2 (two games weren’t on the board), with a straight-up record of 91-29.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Nov. 10 thru Sat., Nov. 12)

1) No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Stanford
Sat., Nov. 12 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The Ducks have done an admirable job of trying to reinvent the game of football. Obviously, what Chip Kelly has brought to Eugene is wildly successful. The vast majority of opponents can’t keep up with the pace of the super speedy quack attack.

However, as much as that is the a new reality in the Pac-12, so is the fact that the Ducks have been unsuccessful against a certain type of ball club.

Stanford (9-0, 7-0), playing at home on The Farm, fits that bill.

We’ve seen it before with Oregon (8-1, 6-0). Remember the Rose Bowl two years ago? Last year’s BCS Championship Game? This year’s opener? In those games against Ohio State, Auburn and LSU, the Ducks came up with a not-so-grand total of 63 points. Our math isn’t always so good, but that seems like an average of just 21 points against elite teams that play with a high level of physicality.

You might not consider the Cardinal to be worthy of inclusion in that club because of a lack of team speed, and you’d be right. But we’re not calling for a stonewalling of the Oregon spread-option, just that The Tree will stand tall in the end.

Although injuries have started to mount in Palo Alto, superstar quarterback Andrew Luck and that sledgehammer Stanford offense will limit the Ducks’ offensive opportunities and have yet to misfire in the red zone (52-of-52).

Opening point spread: Stanford by 3

The pick: Stanford 32-26

Final: Oregon 53-30

2) No. 10 Virginia Tech at No. 20 Georgia Tech
Thurs., Nov. 10 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. “Coach Hedanz” also would like to go on record with his disagreement with the prediction above. Things are not always harmonious within the P101 consortium.

The Hokies roll into the ATL with their conference destiny in their own hands. Win out and a rematch with Clemson could be on the horizon.

Oddly enough, the Yellow Jackets recently got back on track by beating the only team to knock off Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1), those same Clemson Tigers.

This matchup features the Hokie rushing defense (fifth in the country) against the Jacket run game (second in the

country). In Georgia Tech’s two losses, its ground game was held in check. Although Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2) has an explosive passing attack, its success in that department depends on its ability to run the football.

VT will win that particular battle with aggressive yet disciplined defense, thus grounding GT’s aerial assault.

Expect some Beamer Ball magic in the special teams to ignite this one and put the game away for the visitors.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2

The pick: Virginia Tech 29-17

Final: Virginia Tech 37-26

3) No. 19 Nebraska at No. 12 Penn State
Sat., Nov. 12 — Noon ET, ESPN

No matter what unfolds in the days since posting this prediction, this contest will be unlike any of the previous 1,219 games in Penn State football history.

As difficult as it may be, we’ll try to focus on football here … the only certainty being that a game will be played.

If Nebraska (7-2, 3-2 in Big Ten) didn’t have problems of its own, it would run a larger risk of getting swept up in the controversies that have engulfed Penn State (8-1, 5-0). At the top of the Cornhusker to-do list is shoring up a defense that yielded 468 yards in a deflating 28-25 loss to Northwestern last week in Lincoln.

The Nittany Lions, who rank near the bottom of the Big Ten and 88th nationally in total offense, aren’t equipped to take full advantage of Nebraska’s defense if it remains in a giving mood. Penn State’s attack is heavily focused on in-form tailback Silas Redd, who has already gone over 1,000 yards.

Redd’s counterpart, Husker junior Rex Burkhead will be the key. If he is able to break into triple-digits on the road, which under normal circumstances would be highly unlikely, Happy Valley gets even sadder.

Opening point spread: Nebraska by 2

The pick: Nebraska 23-17

Final: Nebraska 17-14

4) TCU at No. 5 Boise State
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, Versus

Already rivals due to their BCS-buster brotherhood and a pair of bowl clashes within the past three years, this de facto MWC Championship Game is the first — and likely only — conference matchup between these two ambitious programs.

It’ll also be the first time TCU (7-2, 4-0 in MWC) sets foot on the blue stuff in Boise, and we know how that usually ends up.

In addition, Boise State (8-0, 3-0) might not recognize this particular edition of the Horned Frog defense, which bares little resemblance to the rock-solid units it faced at the Poinsettia and Fiesta Bowls following the 2008 and 2009 seasons. TCU allowed a total of 90 points in its two losses this season to Baylor and SMU.

One can be certain that Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore, who didn’t toss a TD pass in either of the previous two meetings versus the Frogs, will enjoy one of his typical Xbox 360 afternoons.

Opening point spread: Boise State by 13

The pick: Boise State 42-24

Final: TCU 36-35

5) No. 24 Auburn at No. 14 Georgia
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

When we last saw these Tigers and Bulldogs on the field together, punches were being thrown after a game that included 10 personal foul penalties.

Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, who was knocked out of last year’s game by a late hit that fueled the fire of this ancient rivalry, will have much more fun this time around. He ranks first in the SEC in passing efficiency and Auburn (6-3, 4-2) ranks next to last in the league in passing efficiency defense.

Georgia (7-2, 5-1) also will be bolstered by the return of freshman tailback Isaiah Crowell, who served a one-game suspension last week, sitting out the ridiculous 63-16 annihilation of New Mexico State.

The Dawgs claim they won’t be scoreboard watching, but if Florida beats South Carolina earlier in the afternoon, they can clinch the Eastern Division with a win over the defending BCS champs, who have been anything but Tigers on the road this season.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 13

The pick: Georgia 31-14

Final: Georgia 45-7

6) Tennessee at No. 8 Arkansas
Sat., Nov. 12 — 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Only two teams in the country have a worse rushing offense than the Volunteers. Averaging just 87 yards per game and 2.6 per carry is bad enough, but when you combine that with a true freshman quarterback making his first start on the road, you’ve got some serious problems.

Tennessee (4-5, 0-5 in SEC) doesn’t stand a chance of sticking with Arkansas (8-1, 4-1), which is averaging nearly 38 points per game.

Expect the hungry Hogs to come up with a focused and crisp effort, further motivated by the fact that a 44-28 victory over South Carolina somehow translated into a drop in the BCS standings.

The price here seems rather cheap.

Opening point spread: Arkansas by 13

The pick: Arkansas 38-16

Final: Arkansas 49-7

7) Wake Forest at No. 9 Clemson
Sat., Nov. 12 — noon ET, ESPNU

The Tigers have had an extra week to stew about their ragged performance in the 31-17 loss at Georgia Tech. That’s not good news for the Demon Deacons, who are solidly headed in the wrong direction.

Unless you consider barely beating Duke, 24-23, something to brag about, Wake Forest (5-4, 4-2 in ACC) has been slip-sliding away ever since wrapping up a 35-30 victory over Florida State on Oct. 8.

Coming into the game against the Yellow Jackets, Clemson (8-1, 5-1) was averaging more than 40 points per game, but didn’t get anywhere near that. Starting tailback Andre Ellington not playing in that contest due to an ankle injury had a lot to do with that as it took a pair of freshmen to replace him and both lost fumbles.

Ellington will be back on Saturday and so should the Tigers.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 15 1/2

The pick: Clemson 38-19

Final: Clemson 31-28

8) No. 4 Alabama at Mississippi State
Sat., Nov. 12 — 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

Crimson Tide running back Trent Richardson wasn’t able to buck the odds and have a Heisman highlight night versus LSU last week. But the 89 rushing yards and 80 receiving yards that he did gain weren’t really expected either.

Imagine what kind of numbers he’s going to have against the Bulldogs, who rank eighth in the SEC in both rushing defense and total defense.

Alabama (8-1, 5-1 in SEC) won’t need any field goals to beat Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4), which has exhibited a lack of quality depth in recent weeks, particularly on offense.

The Bulldogs haven’t come within 20 points of the Tide in their last three meetings and have lost 20 consecutive games to top-10 foes.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 17

The pick: Alabama 34-10

Final: Alabama 24-7

9) No. 2 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Sat., Nov. 12 — Noon ET, ABC

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

With each passing week, and especially now that they’ve elevated themselves into BCS Championship Game contention, the pressure mounts for Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0 in Big 12).

Two road wins over a pair of teams at the bottom of the conference standings before the Bedlam showdown with Oklahoma for all the marbles. Easy, right?

“Not so fast, my friend,” as Coach Corso likes to say.

If the Red Raiders’ upset of then-No. 3 Oklahoma in Norman three weeks ago doesn’t make them a dangerous barking dog, maybe the Cowboys can be reminded of what happened in Lubbock on the first week in November in 2008 when the Red Raiders handed No. 1 Texas their first loss of the season.

Surprisingly, the Pokes’ wins in this series the past two years have been relatively low scoring, and we expect that trend to continue with the visitors playing a little more close to the vest to prevent costly mistakes and Texas Tech (5-4, 2-4) fired up to make amends for the embarrassments the past couple weeks.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 19 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 27-20

Final: Oklahoma State 66-6

10) Miami (Fla.) at Florida State
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

This matchup used to be a shoe-in to be at the top of this list rather than the bottom, but you still can’t deny the awesome appeal of the annual renewal of this rivalry.

Lamar Miller, the first 1,000-yard rusher in Coral Gables since 2002, is the best back your neighbor hasn’t heard of, and Hurricane quarterback Jacory Harris is quietly in tip-top form. Together they give Miami (5-4, 3-3 in ACC) a fighting chance against Florida State (6-3, 4-2), which ranks first in the league and fourth in the nation in total defense.

Incredibly, the favorite has lost the last six meetings.

Sometimes we’ll buck a bizarre trend because it figures to end. But we can’t go all the way. We just won’t pass up the freebie points.

Opening point spread: Florida State by 9 1/2

The pick: Florida State 27-23

Final: Florida State 23-19

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

Washington at No. 18 USC
Sat., Nov. 12 — 3:30 p.m. ET, FX

Is there a team in the country that cares more about numbers than the Trojans?

Witness last Friday’s 42-17 victory at Colorado, where USC (7-2, 4-2 in Pac-12) shamelessly sought and captured a six-touchdown night for quarterback Matt Barkley. We won’t even go into that whole final score mess that erupted after Troy’s 23-14 (or 17-14) win over Utah … oops, we just did.

Washington (6-3, 4-2) has an even worse pass defense than the Buffaloes, ranking dead last in the conference and 113th in the nation (allowing 283 yards through the air per game).

Those numbers seem to spell doom for the Dawgs, but let’s not forget that Steve Sarkisian has won both of his previous games against his previous employer.

Opening point spread: USC by 13

The pick: USC 34-27

Final: USC 40-17

Western Kentucky at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Nov. 12 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Normally we jump all over games like this, figuring that a drastic emotional drop-off will translate into something that will fall within the massive margin established by our friends in the desert. But this one is a bit tricky.

The freshly crowned “Game of the Century” champions are on top of world, after out-defensing Alabama, 9-6.

Western Kentucky (5-4, 5-1 in Sun Belt) prevailed in a scoring-challenged struggle of its own, edging Florida International, 10-9, on a walk-off field goal to run their winning streak to five games. All five of those victories have been in Sun Belt play, putting the Hilltoppers in position to capture the conference crown.

That’s pretty heady stuff for a program that has never played in a bowl game and won only two league games within the previous two seasons. So in a sense, WKU has bigger — yet smaller — fish to fry. What the Hilltoppers really need to do is get out of Death Valley alive (and with their paycheck) and get ready for North Texas and Troy.

Besides, what do you think is going to happen when a team ranked 101st in both scoring offense and total offense goes against the Tigers’ NFL-caliber defense, which can score as well?

Opening point spread: LSU by 41 1/2

The pick: LSU 52-0

Final: LSU 42-9

Week 11 record: 10-2
Total: 101-31

Utah takes control of the Pac-12 South with dominating win over reeling USC

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There’s just one team among the six who occupy the division who has not yet represented the Pac-12 South in the conference title game. That might be about to change.

Utah beat up and bullied defending champion USC 41-28 on Saturday night in Salt Lake City — in a game that wasn’t even that close — as the Utes managed to wrestle control of the division standings and finally start looking like the team that was expected to play at this level.

The outing continued a string of encouraging performances for the Utes on offense as they may finally be able to say they’ve turned a corner on that side of the ball. QB Tyler Huntley had only a few misfires in throwing for 341 yards and four touchdowns in guiding the team to a win in what might be his best overall game so far as a starter. For good measure the dual-threat added a touchdown on the ground as well to go with his 33 yards rushing, forming a nice backfield tandem with running mate Zack Moss toting the rock 25 times for 136 yards.

Defensively the group was just as stout as we’ve come to expect from Kyle Whittingham. In addition to holding the Trojans to only 3.8 yards per play and 3-of-14 on third down, the Utes really only gave up one sustained scoring drive in the contest and should have had an interception that passed through the hands of two defenders on another score they allowed. If not for two turnovers that put them in bad spots, the runaway score could have been even more lopsided.

Equally to blame was the USC offense though. J.T. Daniels looked every bit like a true freshman QB on the road in going 6-of-16 for 89 yards, a score, and two picks. He missed most of the fourth quarter after leaving with a concussion and backup Matt Fink showed why he might be the go-to under center for the team next week with a 6-of-7 outing that included a late touchdown pass.

Of course, neither signal-caller had any sort of time to throw from the pocket and the team managed to rush for only 2.4 yards per carry to compound their issues.

The loss, especially in such demoralizing fashion, is sure to increase fan frustration in cardinal and gold with head coach Clay Helton. While the program was expected to undergo a bit of a rebuilding campaign, the team has struggled in all three phases and looked fairly overmatched against the better teams they’ve faced. If not for a controversial win over Washington State, the Trojans would all but be out of the league race and will need massive help to rally and make it back to Levi’s Stadium for the Pac-12 title game.

That will not be the case for the Utes, who control their destiny at the moment and face winnable games in the next two weeks against UCLA and Arizona State before a season-defining stretch against Oregon (at home) and at Colorado. While the early returns were not good for Utah as they got off to a slow start to 2018, it appears they’ve shook the rust off and are now firmly looking like the team to beat in the Pac-12 South.

Boiler up! Purdue blasts No. 2 Ohio State, 49-20, shaking up Big Ten picture

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After starting the season with three tough losses, the season looked bleak for Purdue. But the season has taken quite a dramatic turn for the Boilermakers after a 49-20 victory over No. 2 Ohio State became the fourth straight win in a row for Purdue. This one, highlighted by three fourth-quarter touchdowns by the home team, may have redefined the season not just for Purdue, but for Ohio State and the Big Ten as a whole.

Purdue quarterback David Blough passed for 378 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win, with Rondale Moore being on the receiving end of 170 yards and two touchdowns. Moore’s second touchdown was an incredible mix of determination and a poor display of tackling by Ohio State, essentially summing up the way this game came to a close in the fourth quarter.

Purdue running back D.J. Knox also had a big night for the Boilermakers by rushing for 128 yards and three touchdowns on 16 rushing attempts.

It may not have been a turning point, but the defining moment of the night for Purdue may have come at the end of the first half when Purdue ran a fake field goal play to pick up a first down in the closing moments of the first half. One play later, Blough completed a nine-yard touchdown pass to Moore to push the Purdue lead to 14-3 just before halftime. The touchdown drive came immediately after Ohio State missed a field goal that could have cut Purdue’s lead to 7-6. It was a gutsy decision by Jeff Brohm, but one that may have been necessary.

While Ohio State’s defense could not slow down Purdue’s offense in the fourth quarter, the Buckeyes didn’t exactly go away quietly. Dwayne Haskins kept Ohio State in the game with a 431-yard performance and two touchdowns, including one on a fourth down play with under five minutes to play to cut the Purdue lead to 35-20. But even one of this season’s best offensive players in the Big Ten was prone to making a mistake. Haskins was picked off by Markus Bailey late int he fourth quarter, and the Purdue defender returned the interception 41 yards for one last exclamation point on the wild upset victory.

With the win, Purdue manages to stay right in the thick of the Big Ten West Division race. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue all have just one conference loss, although Purdue’s only loss to this point has come against Northwestern. Purdue will also get Iowa and Wisconsin at home in November, and it has become clear this is not a place you want to travel to play right now. Purdue has not played in a Big Ten championship game, which is played in Indianapolis, but perhaps these Boilermakers have something special cooking right now. They absolutely cannot be dismissed in the West Division now.

Ohio State’s setback means the Buckeyes are now looking up in the Big Ten East standings for the first time this season. The team sitting above them just so happens to be Michigan, the last undefeated team in Big Ten play this season after the Wolverines took care of Michigan State earlier in the day. The fate of the Big Ten East could very well come down to the regular season finale between Ohio State and Michigan this year in Ohio Stadium, and Ohio State will clearly have some work to do if they are going to climb back to being the team to beat in the division they were expected to be.

It is still too early to go crazy over the College Football Playoff implications for Ohio State with this loss, because a one-loss Big Ten champion — be it Ohio State or Michigan — would still figure to have a solid chance of being one of the four teams selected at the end of the year. The first playoff rankings will come at the end of the month, but the Buckeyes will be sitting on this loss when those rankings make their debut, so they will not have a chance to redeem themselves in front of the watchful eyes of the selection committee.

Ohio State will look take next week off with a bye before looking for a rebound win on November 3 at home against Nebraska. Purdue will look to continue flexing against the Big Ten East Division next week when they travel to East Lansing to take on a beat-up Michigan State team.

The last time Purdue beat the No. 2 team in the country was October 6, 1984. The opponent that day? Ohio State.

Palouse Power: No. 25 Washington State’s magical Saturday continues with upset of No. 12 Oregon

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From GameDay to game time, dawn until dusk — and well afterward, no doubt — a magical Saturday in Pullman is now complete and the western hills of Washington may never be the same for it.

Though it wasn’t easy at times, No. 25 Washington State held the lead from start to finish of a 34-20 upset over No. 12 Oregon to set off a raucous celebration for the Cougars across Martin Stadium as Mike Leach’s band of underdogs temporarily took control atop the Pac-12 North and capped off a historic day for the school.

Following up a historic visit from ESPN’s College GameDay in the morning for the first time ever in the show’s history, the Palouse was rocking for one of the biggest games in years and the Cougars didn’t disappoint outside of an early interception on their first drive. Aside from that mistake though, QB Gardner Minshew was phenomenal running the Air Raid under the primetime lights and introduced the rest of the country to his amazing ‘stache and quick release with a 323 yard effort with four touchdowns and a final tally of two picks. While his opposite number came in as the darling of NFL scouts, it was the East Carolina graduate transfer who took center stage and was able to spread the ball around quite effectively with nine different players recording a catch.

His two teammates in the backfield also played a big role too as Max Borghi had 91 total yards (one receiving score) and starter James Williams added 95 more with a touchdown on the ground where he missed a good six tackles before diving past the pylon. All-in-all, an incredible effort for Wazzu on both sides of the ball even if things slipped a bit in the second half after heading into the locker room at the break up 27 points.

While the Cougars celebrated amid a full on field storming after the game, their opponents have to rue another missed opportunity to make a move in the conference just a week after celebrating a massive win of their own against Washington. QB Justin Herbert threw for only 270 yards and a touchdown (along with one on the ground) but essentially was the entire offense for the Ducks and was unable to lean at all on any sort of run game. CJ Verdell rushed for only 55 yards and star receiver Dillon Mitchell had one of his quietest nights of the year with just seven catches for 47 yards.

Factor in the loss to Stanford earlier on and the result likely ended any hopes of making it to Santa Clara for the conference title game for Mario Cristobal’s club and certainly put to bed that faint talk of the team being a College Football Playoff sleeper.

While it’s too early to start dreaming of a visit to Levi’s Stadium just yet for Leach’s squad, the team will make the trek to the Bay Area next weekend in a big test to see just how well they can handle this kind of success. The Cougars have now won four straight over Oregon and that Apple Cup to end the regular season is looming larger and larger both in the Pac-12 and nationally given the way October has shook up the standings in one of the wilder divisions in college football.

Coug fans can ponder all that later — Saturday night in Pullman was all about celebrating a day that will be fondly remembered in school history for years to come.

Earlham Quakers set D-III record with 51st straight loss

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One Div. III football program entered some very rarefied — and unwanted — air this weekend.

Saturday afternoon, Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference powerhouse Franklin had little problem in dispatching Earlham 64-20 to improve its record to 7-1. For Earlham, though, it was yet another lost Saturday.

The loss was the Quakers’ 51st in a row, setting the all-time Div. III record. The previous record was set by Minnesota’s Macalester College nearly four decades ago (1974-80).

Earlham’s last win? Oct. 26, 2013.

While Earlham set the Div. III record for consecutive losses, they have a long way to go to set the all-level mark. That “honor” belongs to Prairie View A&M, which lost 80 straight in a streak that began Oct. 28, 1989, and didn’t end until Sept. 27, 1998.

If there’s any silver lining for Earlham it’s that, after a week off, they’ll square off Nov. 3 with Defiance, which is 0-7 this season and has lost 10 straight dating back to last season.