Apparently, the oddsmakers’ paid little or no attention to the compelling case for Johnny Manziel made by Ben last weekend.
Just as in its last set of odds, Bovada.com‘s latest Heisman Trophy odds see Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein as the prohibitive favorite for the stiff-armed award at 2/3. In late October, following a lopsided win over early-season front-runner Geno Smith and West Virginia, Klein’s odds were 4/7.
Klein is followed by Manziel, the Texas A&M quarterback looking to become the first freshman winner in the history of the prestigious award, at 3/1. Manziel wasn’t even on the Heisman radar last month, gambling-wise.
Based solely on raw statistics, Manziel would be the runaway favorite as the Aggie trumps the Wildcat in passing yards (2780-2020), passing touchdowns (18-12) and rushing yards (1014-748), and is just one behind (19-18) in rushing touchdowns. However, those totals are heavily skewed in Manziel’s favor as A&M runs nearly 20 more offensive plays per game than K-State; using yards per rush/pass completion, the two are in a virtual dead heat — 9.9 for Manziel vs. 9.3 for Klein.
On the other hand, Klein trumps Manziel in completion percentage (69.7-67.6), touchdown-to-interception ratio (12/3-18/6) and passing efficiency 167.4-151.2). Add in the fact that K-State is a unanimous No. 2 in the major polls and sits atop the latest BcS rankings, and the precedent that no player in Manziel’s class has ever won a Heisman, it’s easy to see why this particular oddsmaker would lean toward Klein as the favorite.
“Collin Klein remains a clear favorite to win the Heisman, but it was tough to gauge how far behind Johnny Manziel really is after last week’s performance,” Bovada Sports Book manager Kevin Bradley said in the company’s release, referring to Manziel’s play in the upset win over Alabama. “We opened him at 5/2 this week but he did not draw any attention and have moved him to 3/1.
“Even though he may be worthy, I assume the fact that a freshman has never won is stuck in the bettor’s minds and, unless Klein really has a mishap, it is his to lose and is even taking money as odds on favorite at 2/5.”
As for other potential contenders, Bovada lists four other players:
Marqise Lee (WR USC) 8/1
Manti Te’o (LB Notre Dame) 10/1
Kenjon Barner (RB Oregon) 10/1
Braxton Miller (QB Ohio State) 30/1