With Jameis Winston going from a half-game suspension to a full game suspension, the ramifications appear to be pretty significant for Florida State. The Seminoles still have plenty of talent across the roster and remain a double-digit favorite at home tonight against Clemson, but if you choose to let your imagination run wild then you can see how the impact of this suspension could be pretty wide-spread. But don’t waste your time. It is not exactly that complicated.
Let’s let this play out in a completely hypothetical situation. Clemson edges Florida State tonight and the Tigers are now in control of the ACC Atlantic Division. Clemson obviously has a leg up in the hunt for an ACC Championship Game appearance and the Tigers host North Carolina, North Carolina State and Louisville in the next three games. That gives Clemson a nice advantage, but it is far too early to suggest Clemson is a lock to win all three. Regardless, Clemson would have the head-to-head tiebreaker in their favor over Florida State.
If Florida State ends the season 11-1 and does not get a chance to compete for the ACC title, that could potentially be a concern when it comes time for the College Football Playoff selection committee to choose which four teams get in the playoff. How much will the committee weigh a conference championship? How will they view Florida State at 11-1, with Winston back on the field (supposing he is on the field, of course)? Keep in mind, Clemson even as an ACC champion may not be a lock either after losing to Georgia in week one. If Clemson loses to South Carolina, then you have a two-loss team as ACC champion.
This could be welcome news to a school like Michigan State and whoever comes out of the Big 12 (Oklahoma or Baylor, most likely). If you believe the SEC champion and Pac-12 champion are guaranteed to be in, the fight for the other two spots will be tense. Florida State has seemed like a lock for one of the spots, but now a loss could jeopardize that idea. I’m not so sure Florida State gets left out if they go 11-1 though. But if Clemson goes 12-1 with the ACC title, that outlook changes in a hurry.
Here’s another thing to keep in mind though. It’s not even October yet. It may just be best to stop speculating who is in and who is not for now. Just allow the games to play out and let the selection committee do its job. Until we see how the committee actually works, it is pointless to suggest what they are thinking at this time.