There’s a lot - and boy do I mean a lot - of discussion about who Texas isn’t playing these days in non-conference play. And let’s be clear here, Texas and Texas A&M should play on an annual basis. But lost in the discussion is who the Longhorns actually do have lined up in the near future.
A home-and-home with Notre Dame. A home-and-home with USC. A home-and-home with LSU. Plus home-and-homes with Maryland and California, one-off games with Central Florida and South Florida, and no dates with FCS opponents. That’s all in the next five years. (If we voyage into the next decade we’ll see a road date at Arkansas and home-and-homes with Michigan and Ohio State as well.)
It’s enough for the folks at ESPN’s Stats & Information department to rank Texas atop its list of toughest future non-conference slates (warning: paywall). “Overall, Texas is projected to play a Power 5 opponent in 10 of its 15 nonconference games over the next five years, tied for the most Power 5 matchups of any team,” the group writes. “The Longhorns are also one of 10 Power 5 teams that will not face an FCS opponent during that time.”
How are the relative strength and weakness of future non-conference schedules calculated, especially in light of the fact most of us numbskulls saw Florida State and Alabama advancing in the College Football Playoff semifinals? Great question. “The difficulty of every game was measured using each opponent’s four-year average FPI rating. FPI is a measure of team strength and has been shown to correlate with future team power.” Gotta be honest here, that’s Japanese to me.
“Once the schedule and opponent strength was set, we calculated how an average FBS team would perform against each team’s nonconference schedule. The number associated with each team is the percentage of games an average FBS team would be expected to lose if it faced that schedule; the higher the number, the harder the schedule.” In short, the tougher the schedule, the higher the score. The easier the slate, the higher the score.
Here’s the top 10:
1. Texas - 60.4
2. USC - 59.2
3. Stanford - 58.9
4. UCLA - 54.7
5. Oklahoma - 49.1
6. Ohio State - 47.6
7. Clemson - 46.5
8. Georgia Tech - 46.3
9. Michigan - 45.7
10. Virginia - 45.6
In short, the average team can be expected to lose a tick over 60 percent of its games against Texas’ future schedule, 59 percent against USC’s future schedule, and so on and so forth.
And now for the 10 easiest:
1. Baylor - 25.7
2. Kansas - 26.0
3. Kansas State - 27.1
3. Illinois - 27.1
5. Missouri - 27.5
6. Tennessee - 28.6
7. Iowa State - 29.0
8. Ole Miss - 29.4
8. Washington State - 29.4
8. Iowa - 29.4