The national narrative appears to be the ACC will be the power conference left without a representative in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season. It is still too early to say whether or not that will be reality just yet, but this weekend poses a serious obstacle to the conference.
Florida State and Clemson appear to be the top playoff contenders in the conference, having reached this point in the season without a loss. The Seminoles and Tigers will not play each other for another few weeks (November 7) in a game that could ultimately decide the ACC Atlantic Division championship, and many believe the ACC will run through that division champion. An undefeated Florida State or Clemson with an ACC title at the end of the season would likely have a very good chance to participate in the College Football Playoff, especially if the Pac-12 or SEC has a two-loss conference champion in the running, which is still a realistic scenario at play. Before we can even worry about where an ACC champion fits in the playoff discussion at the end of the season, we must first see if either team can avoid being upset this weekend. Florida State visits Georgia Tech and Clemson visits Miami.
Both Florida State and Clemson are clear favorites in these division crossover matchups, but it is not unfathomable to think Georgia Tech or Miami could surprise their opponents this week. Georgia Tech has certainly been scuffling this season, but Paul Johnson‘s team can still be dangerous at home. Miami still has some room for improvement but gave Florida State a little bit of a run not too long ago in Tallahassee.
So what happens if one loses this weekend? What happens if both lose? That could put the ACC in a difficult spot, although a one-loss champion from the ACC may still have a playoff profile worth consideration depending on what other candidates are left standing at the end of the season. For the ACC’s best playoff chances, it needs Florida State or Clemson to run the table. A one-loss ACC champion may lack the pedigree needed to convince the selection committee it is worthy of a playoff spot this season without a little help elsewhere (SEC, Pac-12, Big Ten). If both teams happen to lose this weekend, that guarantees a second loss for Florida State or Clemson later on, and leaves very little margin for error for the winner of the Florida State-Clemson game still to be played.
The Big 12 being left out of the playoff last year suggested there is little room for error if a conference champion takes a loss. The ACC will have the benefit of a 13th game to showcase its champion. It just needs Clemson or Florida State to get to Charlotte without a loss first.