WHO: No. 20 LSU (8-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)
WHAT: The 10th AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
WHERE: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
WHEN: 9:00 p.m. ET, Dec. 29 on ESPN
THE SKINNY: Through the first two months of this college football season it looked as though LSU might be on the run to an SEC title and a top spot in the College Football Playoff behind a Heisman Trophy runaway favorite in Leonard Fournette., That championship dream derailed in Tuscaloosa in early November and struggled to recover from the wreckage. Fournette’s Heisman hopes and expectations were tossed to the side as LSU was handed a loss in three straight SEC games by Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss before finally ending the season with a win against Texas A&M. The win against the Aggies also proved to be a revival of sorts for head coach Les Miles, who managed to keep his job amid growing speculation he was as good as cooked in Baton Rouge.
Texas Tech turned in a solid season under Kliff Kingsbury using that signature Texas Tech air-raid approach. Texas Tech was second in the nation in passing yards per game (389.7 ypg, trailing only former Texas Tech coach Mike Leach and Washington State), Patrick Mahomes passing for 4,283 yards and 32 touchdowns. The Red Raiders ranked second in the nation in points per game as well, putting up 46.6 ppg this season. As has historically been the case for the program though, the defense has not held up its end of the bargain far too often to take Texas Tech as a serious threat. Texas Tech allowed an average of 42.6 yards per game and is 126th against the run, allowing 271.83 yards per game on the ground. That just spells out a nightmare scenario for the Red Raiders, who must now stop one of the nation’s most productive running backs.
LSU’s running game should be the key factor here. Texas Tech can’t stop the run and LSU thrives on it. LSU is also hoping to avoid falling out of the top25 in the major polls. A loss to Texas Tech would likely assure LSU a second straight season ranked outside the top 25 at the end of the season, and that hasn’t happened since Gerry DiNardo was the head coach in 1998 and 1999. The following year, LSU hired Nick Saban and things worked out pretty well from there.
THE PREDICTION: LSU 38, Texas Tech 27