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What one-loss teams have best chance to make a playoff run?

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It was just two seasons ago many around the college football world declared the Big Ten’s playoff hopes dead after just two weeks of college football action. Obviously, that turned out to be false. Ohio State went on a tear and hit a hot streak at the best possible time to sneak into the first College Football Playoff as Big Ten champion, then proceed to take out SEC champion and No. 1 seed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl semifinal and then Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota and Pac-12 champion Oregon for the national championship.

So here we are once again, analyzing the thin ice a number of conferences and perceived playoff contenders continue to march forward on after two weeks of football action. The question remains, what one-loss teams still have a glimmer of hope to make a playoff run? Here are some worth watching, in no particular order.

Oklahoma

The Sooners get a chance to redeem themselves after losing the opener against Houston. Oklahoma hosts Ohio State this weekend in one of the top games of the week. Having already lost once in Week 1, it is pretty safe to suggest Oklahoma has to win this week in order to keep any hope of a second straight playoff berth alive. A win against Ohio State would still probably have to be followed up by an undefeated run through the Big 12, which is no guarantee given that will include games against undefeated West Virginia, Texas and Baylor, not to mention Oklahoma State and TCU. Even if Oklahoma does win all of their remaining games, if it comes down to handing a playoff spot to a one-loss Oklahoma and an undefeated Houston, which way would the selection committee go?

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish have a load of key games that can help generate a playoff push. They get Michigan State this week and still have games against Stanford, Miami, Virginia Tech and USC on the schedule to help provide some likely quality wins. A road loss in overtime against Texas may not end up looking too bad if the Longhorns continue to show they are improving. But like any team from the Big 12 playing a 12-game schedule, the margin for error is very thin after taking an early loss for the Golden Domers.

UCLA

When it comes to UCLA being a legitimate playoff contender, I will believe it when I see it. UCLA can keep themselves on the radar this week with a win at BYU to generate some momentum, but losing on the road at Texas A&M and still having games against Stanford, Utah and USC after playing BYU this week means UCLA will have to be on top of its game the rest of the way. The Bruins cannot afford another loss, and running through the Pac-12 without a loss for any team (including Stanford and Washington) is no easy task. Keep in mind, UCLA might be in a position in which it has to defeat Stanford twice, once in the regular season and again in a Pac-12 championship game (or Stanford in the regular season and Oregon or Washington in the championship game). Do you like those odds? Neither do I.

And just to note, I’m taking a hard pass on USC after being obliterated by Alabama and still having to play at Stanford this week and then Oregon later on followed by road trips to Washington and UCLA before hosting Notre Dame. Nope. Not happening.

Ole Miss/LSU

Ole Miss and LSU each lost against power conference opponents away from home in not-so-neutral fields in Week 1, and each still has to play each other and Alabama. If either one of these two can go 2-0 against the other and the Crimson Tide, that is all that will be needed to get back in the playoff hunt. Of course, this is no small feat. Ole Miss gets their first crack to jump back in the fun with a home game against Alabama this week. Win that and then it is on, starting the following week at home against Georgia. Back-to-back road games against Arkansas and LSU later also pose a serious threat to Ole Miss’ playoff hopes if Alabama doesn’t crush them first. LSU has a more favorable path to making a playoff with one loss and has the luxury of getting both Ole Miss and Alabama at home, albeit in back-to-back weeks later on. If LSU has figured out its passing game and Leonard Fournette comes back healthy soon, LSU could enter those two pivotal SEC West matchups with just one loss and have momentum to work with. A road game at Florida should be the only real threat before that.

Purdue

Nah, I’m just kidding.

 

Do you think any other one-loss team through the first two weeks of the season has any real chance to remain in the playoff picture in November, or is all hope already lost?

Spinal condition forces Northwestern’s leading rusher to retire

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Harsh and decidedly unexpected news coming out of Evanston Monday afternoon will have a significant impact on Northwestern’s football team moving forward.

The football program confirmed earlier today that Jeremy Larkin will be forced to retire from the game of football as a result of a recent diagnosis of cervical stenosis.  The good news is that the condition is not considered life-threatening even as it precludes any future participation in the sport.

Obviously, the sophomore running back’s decision to retire, which came as the football program was coming off its one bye weekend of the season, is effective immediately.

“Football has been a lifelong passion and it has been a process to reconcile the fact I won’t be on that field again, given I’ve played this game since I was five years old,” said Larkin in a statement. “I’m extremely appreciative of the Northwestern sports medicine and athletic training staffs for uncovering this condition, and for my coaches and the medical staff for always putting my health first. I came to this University to engage at the absolute highest level on the field and in the classroom, and I’m grateful for the opportunity to continue one of those while supporting my teammates from the sideline.”

“This is heartbreaking because I see every day how much Jeremy loves the game, loves his teammates, and loves to compete,” head football coach Pat Fitzgerald. “But this is the absolute best possible outcome for him. The discovery of this condition allowed Jeremy and his family to make an informed decision for his long-term health and well-being. For those of us who have known Jeremy Larkin since his high school days, his future is exceptionally bright. I can’t wait to see the impact he makes in our world.”

Through three games, Larkin’s 346 yards rushing were easily tops on the Wildcats.  In fact, Larkin currently accounts for an astounding 98.6 percent of the Wildcats’ 351 rushing yards as a team.  Additionally, he has five of their seven rushing touchdowns on the season.

Northwestern will open up Big Ten play this weekend as they host No. 14 Michigan.

Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson set for surgery, out indefinitely

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Virginia Tech’s embarrassing weekend came with a rather substantial personnel loss.

This past Saturday, starting quarterback Josh Jackson went down with a lower-leg injury in then-No. 13 Tech’s historic loss to Old Dominion; it was the Conference USA program’s first-ever win over a Power Five school after nine straight such losses over the last decade.

Monday, the Hokies’ worst fears were realized as Justin Fuente confirmed that Jackson suffered a fractured left fibula during the game and will be sidelined indefinitely.  The signal-caller is set to undergo surgery on Tuesday to repair the damage.

This season prior to the injury, Jackson completed a little over 62 percent of his 58 passes for 575 yards, five touchdowns and an interception.  His 170.3 pass efficiency rating is currently 18th nationally and second among ACC quarterbacks (Boston College’s Anthony Brown, 175.5).

With Jackson sidelined for the foreseeable future, the keys to Tech’s offense will be handed off to Ryan Willis.  The Kansas transfer had to sit out the 2017 season to satisfy NCAA transfer rules, and has attempted 25 passes for the Hokies this season.  In that limited action thus far, he has thrown for 195 yards and a touchdown.

The good news is that Willis isn’t exactly new to the starting game at the collegiate level.

Willis started two games during the 2016 season; after throwing three interceptions in each of those mid-October starts, Willis was benched and never played another down for the Jayhawks. In his first season in Lawrence in 2015, Willis set a KU freshman record by throwing for 1,719 yards and nine touchdowns as part of his eight starts.

“I feel badly for Josh,” Fuente said in comments distributed by the school earlier today. “He’s a competitive, tough young man. He just kind of got landed on wrong on the play, but know he’ll come back better than ever.

“We turn to Ryan Willis and he performed pretty well last week when he went in there. He’s competitive and he’s been training and working for this opportunity and it’s up to everyone else to step up their game as well and help him out and support him.”

Nick Bosa’s parents indicate star Ohio State DE won’t even be reevaluated until November

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Instead of when will Ohio State gets it’s star defensive end back, perhaps the question should be will they.

Nick Bosa suffered a core muscle injury in the Week 3 win over TCU, with surgery subsequently confirmed by head coach Urban Meyer that left the All-American defensive lineman’s availability in the near future up in the air.  Not long after Meyer confirmed Monday that Bosa would indeed miss this weekend’s huge matchup with Penn State, both of the third-year junior’s parents indicated that it could be quite a while, if at all, before their son returns to the playing field — at least at the collegiate level.

John Bosa told the Columbus Dispatch “the reality of what’s going on [is that] Nick won’t be evaluated by the surgeon until November”; Cheryl Bosa stated as much to ESPN.com as well.

While Bosa’s head coach stated that “we expect him back” this season, his mom intimated there’s a chance her son, widely expected to be a Top Five pick in the 2019 NFL draft if/when he leaves OSU early, could opt not to return at all in 2018.

“Cheryl said her son wants to return for Ohio State this season,” ESPN.com wrote, “but that they’ll discuss his situation (NFL) as a family before making a decision.”

Regardless of whether he returns to the Buckeyes or not, the good news is that, per the father, the injury “is 100-percent fixable.”

OSU will play four regular season games in the month of November: Nebraska (Nov. 3), at Michigan State (Nov. 10), at Maryland (Nov. 17) and Michigan (Nov. 24).  The Big Ten championship game is set for Dec. 1.

It’s unclear if Bosa’s decision will be impacted by the Buckeyes qualifying for the conference title game or, further down the road, the College Football Playoffs if they’re one of the four semifinalists.

Larry Scott defends Pac-12’s late night TV schedule

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Judging from the outsider’s perspective, the Pac-12 seems like the angriest of the Power 5 conferences right now. Or at least the most angst-ridden. The league is angsty about the state of its product on the field after going 1-8 in bowl games and missing the College Football Playoff last year. It’s angsty about its place in the world, literally and metaphorically, isolated from the other four Power 5 leagues. And it’s especially angsty about its TV contract.

Twenty-four of the league’s 80 conference games started at or after 7 p.m. local time in 2017, 30 percent. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but that feels like a higher number than the other conferences (and Pac-12 coaches and fans would likely agree).

There’s one reason for that: TV. In 2011, the Pac-12 announced a joint 12-year contract with ESPN and Fox worth a collective $3 billion. At the time, it felt like a game-changer. In time, we’ve learned that it wasn’t. The Pac-12 is still the only Power 5 conference in the Pacific time zone, and as such, it’s the only conference the networks are going to schedule in the 10:30 p.m. ET time slot.

Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott was asked about the TV deal on Saturday:

“The reason we play almost a third of our games at night is that was a way to unlock significant value from television in our last negations,” Scott said, via The Oregonian. “ESPN and Fox placed a high value on us giving them a little more flexibility and being willing to play more night games.”

Translated from businesspeak to English, here’s what Scott is saying: Look, you like all that money, don’t you? The only way ESPN and Fox were paying us all those billions was if we played at 10:30 Eastern, because they’re certainly not playing SEC games at that time.

The economics here is simple: ESPN and Fox draw higher ratings for live college football games than they do for SportsCenter (or whatever the FS1 equivalent is). The Washington-Utah game drew 1.589 million viewers for ESPN on Sept. 15, while Fresno State-UCLA drew 301,000 for FS1. Both of those numbers are higher than anything else those networks could show at that time. As such, ESPN and Fox can charge higher prices for advertising, and then share some of that money with the conference. If there were no #Pac12AfterDark games there would be no (or significantly less) #Pac12AfterDark money. And everyone likes money, especially when they’ve already spent it it on coaching salaries and new facilities.

And, let’s face it, given the chance to show, say, Alabama-Ole Miss or Washington-Utah at 7 p.m. ET, ESPN is going to pick Alabama-Ole Miss every time. In fact, ESPN did that exact thing on Sept. 15, and Alabama-Ole Miss drew 4.109 million viewers.

The Pac-12 does own its own network, so if the league’s fans and coaches are truly that miserable in their current arrangement, the option to go it alone and pick its kickoff times will become available to the conference starting in 2024. In fact, the Pac-12 stands more to gain than any other conference by placing most or all of its TV inventory on its own network. The Pac-12 wholly owns all of Pac-12 Network, which means it would stand to keep all of the profits in the event its carriage fees skyrocket by putting every USC, Washington, Oregon, etc., football game on its network. But, of course, it would stand to take all of the losses the conference passed on the guaranteed money from ESPN and Fox and the carriage fees didn’t skyrocket.

The guess here is the Pac-12 will take the guaranteed money again.