WHO: No. 17 Florida (8-4) vs. Iowa (8-4)
WHAT: The 31st Outback Bowl
WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET on ABC
WHERE: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
THE SKINNY: Few games this bowl season should be the battle of defenses the way the Outback Bowl will this year between Iowa and SEC East champion Florida (so watch this game turn into a wild shootout out of nowhere for no logical reason). This one will feature two of the worst power conference offense sin the country going up against solid defensive teams with playmakers all over the defensive side of the field.
The Gators will have to hope quarterback Austin Appleby can avoid making mistakes the Iowa secondary. Appleby was picked off three times in the SEC championship game by Alabama. Fortunately for Florida, Iowa is not exactly Alabama, but the Hawkeyes have one of the better passing defenses in the country, led by none other than Desmond King. King could have easily turned pro after lasts season, but he opted to return for one final season and will be one player to watch try and leave with a statement. Iowa’s C.J. Beathard will also be tasked with overcoming pressure form the Gators defensive front and must also avoid throwing up a desperation pass and hoping for the best.
With the defenses expected to play a key role in the Outback Bowl, capitalizing on however many red zone opportunities are available will be critical. In the 2016 season, Iowa fared much better with red zone touchdowns than the Gators. Iowa scored a touchdown 71.8 percent of the time they entered the opponent’s 20-yard line (28-of-36), and scored eight field goals the times they did not score a touchdown. Iowa’s red zone touchdown success rate ranked 15th in the nation this season. Florida was on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 116th in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage (just 50.0%), with 20 touchdowns on 40 red zone trips. The Gators also only notched eight field goals inside the 20-yard line, thus leaving plenty of points off the scoreboard once penetrating the red zone. Indiana and Rutgers are the only power conference teams with a worse reds zone touchdown percentage than the Gators.
Expect a low-scoring contest between the Hawkeyes and Gators, but pay special attention to which team wins. If Iowa wins, you will get a free coconut shrimp appetizer at Outback Steakhouse on January 3. If Florida wins, it’s a free bloomin’ onion for all diners at Outback Steakhouse on the same day. Choose your side wisely.
THE PREDICTION: Iowa 20, Florida 17