After the Big 12 entered Week 12 somewhat convoluted, they exited with much more clarity. Maybe.
First and foremost, Oklahoma, 7-1 in Big 12 play, assured itself of one of the two spots in the Big 12 championship game by virtue of a 41-3 pasting of hapless Kansas. TCU, now 6-2, earned the inside track to the second spot thanks to a 27-3 win over Texas Tech in Lubbock Saturday afternoon.
That sets up a relatively simple scenario for Week 13: if TCU handles one-win Baylor at home, they will face Oklahoma in the inaugural renewal of the Big 12 championship game. If not? Matt Campbell‘s upstart squad has a chance, albeit a very slim one.
As it stands now*, there are currently four Big 12 teams with three conference losses — Iowa State (finishes against Kansas State), Oklahoma State (Kansas), Texas (Texas Tech) and West Virginia (Oklahoma). OSU, Texas and WVU all lost to TCU, so they would be eliminated from contention even if TCU happened to stumble against BU.
While Iowa State beat TCU, they also lost to Texas, WVU and OSU. Thus, in case of a three-way tie — or more — TCU would get the spot in the conference championship game based on wins over everyone but ISU amongst the group of teams in line for a potential tie for second place. ISU, then, needs losses by all four of those teams plus a win over bowl-eligible K-State.
(*I believe these scenarios to be accurate, although I’ve reached out to the Big 12 for confirmation.)