There are some strong OVER trends in a conference championship game that some are resigned to believing will be more of a coronation for top-ranked Alabama.
Led by Heisman Trophy betting favorite Tua Tagovailoa, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 13-point favorites against the Georgia Bulldogs with a 63-point total ahead of the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Alabama is actually facing its tightest line of the season, but it is 14-0 straight-up over its last 14 games with an average winning margin of 31.71 points. Georgia is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games. The total might seem high by SEC standards, but five of Georgia’s last six games have gone OVER, with an average combined score of 58.67. The total has also gone OVER in five of Alabama’s last seven games in December.
Elsewhere on championship weekend:
BUFFALO (10-2) VS. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (7-5)
The Buffalo Bulls are 3.5-point favorites on the college football odds against the Northern Illinois Huskies with a 49.5-point total in the Mid-American Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit on Friday. Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games in Week 14. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
NO. 11 WASHINGTON (9-3) VS. NO. 17 UTAH (9-3)
The Washington Huskies are five-point favorites against the Utah Utes with a 44.5-point total in the Pac-12 Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Friday. Utah is 7-1 straight up (SU) and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
NO. 5 OKLAHOMA (11-1) VS. NO. 14 TEXAS (9-3)
The Oklahoma Sooners are eight-point favorites against the Texas Longhorns with a 77.5-point total in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Texas’ last 25 games against teams from its conference. Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games in Week 14.
NO. 6 OHIO STATE (11-1) VS. NO. 21 NORTHWESTERN (8-4)
The Ohio State Buckeyes are 14-point favorites against the Northwestern Wildcats with a 60.5-point total in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Northwestern is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games against Ohio State, according to the OddsShark College Football Database, with an average losing margin of 30.8 points. Ohio State covered in its most recent game against Michigan, but it is 0-3 ATS in its last three games after an ATS win.
NO. 2 CLEMSON (12-0) VS. PITT (7-5)
The Clemson Tigers are 27.5-point favorites against the Pitt Panthers with a 52.5-point total in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games in December. Clemson is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in December.
NO. 8 UCF (11-0) VS. MEMPHIS (8-4)
The UCF Knights are three-point favorites against the Memphis Tigers with a 64.5-point total in the AAC Championship Game. Memphis is 0-6 SU and ATS in its last six games on the road against Central Florida. The total has gone UNDER in six of UCF’s last seven games against its conference.
UAB (9-3) VS. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (8-4)
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are 1.5-point favorites against the UAB Blazers with a 45-point total in the Conference-USA Championship Game. The total has gone UNDER in seven of UAB’s last 10 games, with an average combined score of 43.1 points. Middle Tennessee is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games at home.
NO. 22 BOISE STATE (10-2) VS. NO. 25 FRESNO STATE (10-2)
The Boise State Broncos are 2.5-point favorites against the Fresno State Bulldogs with a 52.5-point total in the Mountain West Championship Game. Fresno State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Fresno State’s last 11 games on the road, with an average combined score of 38.0 points. Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games at home in December.
APPALACHIAN STATE (9-2) VS. LOUISIANA (7-5)
The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 16.5-point betting favorites against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns with a 58.5-point total in the Sun Belt Championship Game. The total has gone UNDER in four of Louisiana-Lafayette’s last five games against Appalachian State, with an average combined score of 46.2 points. Appalachian State is 9-0 SU in its last nine home games, with a winning margin of 27.89 points.
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