It feels a little different to be coming off a bad week. But when bad equates to a Week 3 showing of 7-4 versus “the number” and 7-5 straight-up, we’re all good.
After three dozen games, that puts us at a sizzling 26-7-1 (two games weren’t on the board) and an expected 25-11 (early season match-ups aren’t as challenging).
Impending doom is still peeking around the corner, but we’re trying to hold him off.
TOP 10 GAMES (Sat., Sept. 24)
1) No. 7 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas A&M
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
This first prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the satellite office in Burbank, Calif. He broke away from his usual focus on thoroughbred horse racing to lend a hand. His fantasy squad is dominating our college keeper league, so why not give him a shot, especially since P101 failed to nail the top game last week for the first time in 2011.
Despite lofty pass efficiency numbers and a perfect 7-0 record away from home, 27-year-old Cowboy quarterback Brandon Weeden isn’t likely to see anymore Sunday snaps, following that wacky late night/early morning stint at Tulsa. However, his main target and Twitter partner (@weeden2blackmon), junior wide receiver Justin Blackmon, is well on his way to being a top pick in the NFL Draft, although his NCAA record streak of 100-yard games was snapped at 14 on Sunday.
Last year’s meeting was decided by a Cowboy field goal as time expired, keeping Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman winless in three tries versus Oklahoma State. We expect another back-and-forth affair that comes down to the final seconds.
Along with eight touchdown tosses through three games, Weeden also has been susceptible to big mistakes having thrown six interceptions. Such generosity in front of the raucous “12th man” will allow the Aggies to control the game late with running back Cyrus Gray notching his 10th consecutive 100-yard rushing effort.
Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 3
The pick: Texas A&M 40-33
Final: Oklahoma State 30-29
2) No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 8 p.m. ET, ABC
We know that the Tigers can handle Oregon’s version of the spread offense and Mississippi State’s, now they take their shot at yet another form of the popular attack, this time the one masterminded by Mountaineer head coach Dana Holgorsen.
West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith will undoubtedly feel more comfortable in Morgantown than he did last year in Baton Rouge (14-of-29 for 119 yards).
LSU might be better off in this one with Jarrett Lee instead of Jordan Jefferson, who threw for only 75 yards in last year’s game with a pair of interceptions. The Mountaineer defense, which has come up with just one sack so far this season, doesn’t figure to disrupt Lee, especially since the Tiger ground game has proven to be dependable.
It’s not easy to go against the Mountaineers, who have won 18 consecutive non-conference games at home, but LSU trumps that streak, having won its last 35 regular-season games apart from SEC play.
The Tiger defense is superb and has a couple additional days of rest under its belt (last played on Sept. 15).
Opening point spread: LSU by 6
The pick: LSU 27-17
Final: LSU 47-21
3) No. 11 Florida State at No. 21 Clemson
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Seminole passing attack is battered and bruised. Starting quarterback E.J. Manuel is listed as day-to-day with a sprained left (non-throwing) shoulder. Jarred Haggins is out with a broken hand and fellow wideout Kenny Shaw’s status is unknown after being the recipient of that vicious helmet-to-helmet sandwich in last week’s 23-13 loss to top-ranked Oklahoma.
If Manuel can’t go, it’s hard to have confidence in backup quarterback Clint Trickett, who will feel the weight of the situation all week. The shining moment for the spindly freshman in last Saturday’s 7-of-15 relief stint was a 56-yard touchdown pass that was actually poorly thrown, before being rescued by Rashad Greene’s athleticism. More importantly, when Trickett felt pressure, he melted.
Clemson’s offense racked up 624 yards of total offense in its 38-24 victory over Auburn last Saturday. Sophomore quarterback Tajh Boyd (30-of-42 for 386 yards and four TDs) and freshman wideout Sammy Watkins (10 catches for 155 yards and two scores) won’t be given free reign this week, but they’ll get the job done.
The Tigers have won the last four games of the series played in Death Valley.
Opening point spread: Florida State by 3
The pick: Clemson 24-20
Final: Clemson 35-30
4) No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Arkansas had a great chance to beat Alabama in last year’s conference opener, but let a 20-7 second-half lead slip into the night. The Razorbacks had the then-No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide right where they wanted them, but couldn’t seal the deal and lost, 24-20. Arkansas still made it to the Sugar Bowl, but just think about where they might have ended up if they were able to contain the Alabama running game.
Bobby Petrino wasn’t happy with the final result last week either, even though it was a win over Troy. But he didn’t have to play all his cards to pull off the win.
Surely, the Tide will see everything his Hogs have to offer, but schemes to establish a running game versus Nick Saban’s bloodthirsty defense aren’t likely to be successful. That’ll leave Petrino relying too much on junior quarterback Tyler Wilson, which means he’ll be put under siege.
Petrino’s Hogs are poor performers on the SEC road trail (4-8) and he got whipped, 35-7, in his previous trip to Tuscaloosa in 2009.
Opening point spread: Alabama by 14
The pick: Alabama 32-16
Final: Alabama 38-14
5) No. 10 Oregon at Arizona
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Wildcats have given up a grand total of 147 points in their last three games against the Ducks. Judging by Arizona’s limp defensive performance last Saturday in a 37-10 loss to Stanford, Mike Stoops’ crew is in trouble once again.
There’s an obvious difference in offensive style between the Cardinal and Ducks, but the 567 total yards allowed by the Wildcats last week at home speaks volumes.
This is Arizona’s third consecutive game against a Top-10 opponent. That’s some kind of September.
Opening point spread: Oregon by 11 1/2
The pick: Oregon 42-24
Final: Oregon 56-31
6) Missouri at No. 1 Oklahoma
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 8 p.m. ET, FX
Considering the magnitude of their cathartic road victory last week in Tallahassee, one might think the Sooners are candidates for a letdown against the Tigers. But after giving away last year’s game in Columbia, there’s little chance that Oklahoma will not approach this game with the proper focus.
Benefitting from three costly Sooner turnovers, Missouri abruptly knocked Oklahoma from its perch at the top of last season’s initial BCS Standings.
Another thing that doesn’t bode well for the Tigers is that Blaine Gabbert, who threw for 308 yards last year versus the Sooners (30-of-42), is no longer at the controls.
One might consider Oklahoma to be a super charged version of Arizona State, which blistered the Tigers for 25 first downs and 492 total yards in a 37-30 victory in overtime two weeks ago.
Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 20 1/2
The pick: Oklahoma 41-16
Final: Oklahoma 38-28
7) Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Sat., Sept. 24 -- noon ET, ABC
The Fighting Irish “lead” the nation in turnovers (13) and own a miserable turnover margin (-2.67). But the Panthers have that problem too, in addition to a host of others.
Emotionally, the teams are headed in opposite directions due to last week’s results. Lou Holtz will say that’ll continue, while Mark May will foresee a turnaround.
We’ll side with Dr. Lou, but we’re typically wrong when it comes to the Irish.
Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 5 1/2
The pick: Notre Dame 31-28
Final: Notre Dame 15-12
8)North Carolina at No. 25 Georgia Tech
Sat., Sept. 24 -- noon ET, ESPN
The Heels are limiting foes to just 76.7 rushing yards per game. The Yellow Jackets nearly averaged that many yards per drive last Saturday during a 66-24 dismantling of Kansas.
If you’re a UNC (or Jayhawk) fan, these numbers from last week are alarming: 768 total yards, 604 rushing yards, 12.1 yards per carry.
Opening point spread: Georgia Tech by 5
The pick: Georgia Tech 33-21
Final: Georgia Tech 35-28
9) No. 23 USC at Arizona State
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
After frolicking to a 38-17 victory over Syracuse, which included Lane Kiffin unsuccessfully trying to get a sixth touchdown pass for Matt Barkley within the final two minutes (and then blaming the call and subsequent sack on an underling afterwards), the Trojans hit the road for the first time.
That mindset stands in stark contrast to that of an ornery Sun Devil team that’s coming home after a disappointing 17-14 loss at Illinois, which will build focus around bouncing back to capture the Pac-12 South.
Opening point spread: Arizona State by 3
The pick: Arizona State 34-28
Final: Arizona St. 43-22
10) No. 9 Nebraska at Wyoming
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 7:30 p.m. ET, Versus
The Cowboys are 3-0 for the first time since 1996, courtesy of a clutch blocked PAT with three seconds remaining that preserved a 28-27 victory at Bowling Green. The rest of Wyoming’s sparkling record comes at the expense of Weber State (barely) and Texas State.
Obviously, hosting the Cornhuskers represents an entirely different kettle of fish, but this game is sandwiched between the payback game against Washington (mission accomplished) and the massive Big Ten debut game at Wisconsin next week.
Opening point spread: Nebraska by 23 1/2
The pick: Nebraska 38-23
Final: Nebraska 38-14
TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE
San Diego State at No. 22 Michigan
Sat., Sept. 24 -- noon ET, Big Ten Network
The following is a list of all the other teams facing Big Ten opposition this week: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Wyoming and Colorado.
That makes the “Brady Bowl” look pretty good. Hoke left the Aztec cupboard fairly well stocked.
Opening point spread: Michigan by 7 1/2
The pick: Michigan 31-24
Final: Michigan 28-7
Georgia at Ole Miss
Sat., Sept. 24 -- 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network
The sideline shots of both “Hot Seat” coaches will be most entertaining.
After a miserable 30-7 loss at Vanderbilt, Houston Nutt would probably rather be out of town this week.
Mark Richt finally got into the win column last week as Coastal Carolina was a welcomed sight in Athens after facing Boise State and South Carolina to open the season.
Opening point spread: Georgia by 10 1/2
The pick: Georgia 32-17
Final: Georgia 27-13
Week 4 record: 11-1
Total: 36-12