The Swami

Predictions 101 — Week 7

14 Comments

For those of you who wondered if we sold our collective soul to the devil in return for that blistering start to the season, you’ll be interested to know that we went 6-6 in Week 6 vs. “the number.”

It’s some consolation to remain undefeated, but after that ridiculous run, a .500 week has us feeling like Mike Stoops instead of our boy Dabo Swinney.

On the bright side, the only blemishes on our 10-2 straight-up mark were a pair of upset stabs (Texas Tech over A&M, and Tennessee over Georgia).

After 72 games, we’re 47-21-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 55-17.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thur., Oct. 13, thru Sat., Oct. 15)

1) No. 11 Michigan at No. 23 Michigan State
Sat., Oct. 15 — Noon ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif. Breaking away from his usual focus on thoroughbreds, he handicaps our featured race.

After five games at the Big House to open the season, which included a miraculous escape against Notre Dame mixed in with four blowouts against second-tier competition, Michigan (6-0, 2-0 in Big Ten) hits the road for the second straight week after posting a convincing win at Northwestern.

Despite averaging 257 yards per game on the ground — with quarterback Denard Robinson accounting for a buck twenty — we’re not sold on the Wolverines’ ability to matriculate the ball down the field against well-rested Michigan State (4-1, 1-0), which allows just 64 rushing yards and 10 points per game.

Robinson is still uncomfortable when forced to throw (nine interceptions, including three last week) and there’s no open spaces in a Spartan secondary that’s allowing just 109 yards per game through the air.

With tensions high as Michigan State hopes to retain the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the fourth consecutive year, expect a low-scoring battle where the Spartan offense, led by efficient senior quarterback Kirk Cousins and his 65 percent career completion average, moves the ball just enough against a Wolverine defense that allows twice as many yards as the college version of “Gang Green.”

Opening point spread: Michigan State by 3

The pick: Michigan State 23-14

Final: Michigan State 28-14

2) No. 6 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Texas
Sat., Oct. 15 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Among many superlatives in last Saturday’s 70-28 dismantling of Kansas, the Cowboys forced four turnovers. That means Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0 in Big 12) has come up with 14 takeaways in its last three games.

That trend doesn’t bode well for Texas (4-1, 1-1), which gave up enough points on offense (three of five turnovers returned for touchdowns) to lose to Oklahoma (55-17) last week.

The young Longhorn quarterbacks — Case McCoy and David Ash — are in for a long afternoon. There’s absolutely nothing to indicate that they’ll be able to trade punches with ultra-veteran Cowboy QB Brandon Weeden (28th birthday on Friday), who directs an offense that averages 51 points and 577 yards per game.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 7 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 38-20

Final: Oklahoma State 38-26

3) No. 18 Arizona State at No. 9 Oregon
Sat., Oct. 15 — 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i. “Coach Hedanz” has the option to predict the outcome of Oregon games until he is wrong about one of them.

As Nike U awaits word on LaMichael James, the Ducks face their toughest competition since the opener versus LSU without their All-America tailback.

One might think that it would be a massive relief for Arizona State (5-1, 3-0 in Pac-12), which is a field goal away from being undefeated, to play Oregon (4-1, 2-0) while it’s without the nation’s leading rusher, but it really isn’t.

Kenyon Barner could start for most schools. The Ducks are truly a team that has a “1” and “1A” in the backfield. In addition, the emergence of De’Anthony Thomas and the re-emergence of Josh Huff will allow Chip Kelly to open up his playbook even further in front of the hostile home crowd at Autzen Stadium. To put things plainly, Oregon will score.

ASU quarterback Brock Osweiler is greatly improved from last year and in full command of the Sun Devil offense. We don’t expect the 6-foot-8 giant to throw four INTs as Steven Threet did last year against the Ducks, but he didn’t look comfortable on the road last month at Illinois, which sacked him six times and picked off two passes.

Oregon, which will use misdirection on offense as it did in last week’s victory over Cal, has too many weapons, even with LMJ out. Vontaze Burfict, the meanest man in college football, can’t keep track of them all.

After a first-half shootout, the Duck defense will get key stops to take control and get separation.

Opening point spread: Oregon by 14 1/2

The pick: Oregon 45-27

Final: Oregon 41-27

4) No. 20 Baylor at No. 21 Texas A&M
Sat., Oct. 15 — Noon ET, FX

The “Battle for the Brazos” has been dominated by the Aggies in recent years, winning 22 of the past 25 meetings. But as is the case with every rivalry — not just ones entering a 108th year — it’s mostly about who has won the most recent game … and this might be the last one of this series for a long time.

With Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 in Big 12) bolting for the SEC next season, Baylor (4-1, 1-1) won’t be facing the Aggies in the foreseeable future, putting some extra importance on this bookend.

A&M’s well-known penchant for letting opposing quarterbacks get on a late roll will have the Kyle Field faithful on edge as Bear triggerman Robert Griffin III is out there doing his thing.

“RG3” leads the nation with a stunning completion percentage of 80.3 and ranks second in passing efficiency (212.9).

With quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the running back duo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, the Aggies have the firepower to fight back, but the question is … how big a lead is enough?

Last year, that was Baylor’s problem as a 30-14 halftime advantage evaporated. The Bears were shutout in the second half and experienced lots of problems on special teams, resulting in a 42-30 loss.

Opening point spread: Texas A&M by 8 1/2

The pick: Texas A&M 37-34

Final: Texas A&M 55-28

5) No. 1 LSU at Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 15 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

After losing standout wideout Justin Hunter (knee injury) three games ago, Tennessee (3-2, 0-2 in SEC) now has quarterback Tyler Bray (broken thumb) on the shelf. That’s devastating to a team that cannot depend on its running game at all. The Vols rank 114th in rushing offense and are fresh off a 20-12 loss to Georgia that saw them rush for minus-20 yards.

Senior Matt Simms is a capable signalcaller, but even the second-coming of Peyton Manning would have a tough time against this Tiger defense, which has tons of quality at every level.

LSU (6-0, 3-0), on the other hand, is rushing for 183.5 yards per game and has 17 scores on the ground.

All of the Tiger victories have been by at least 13 points. There’s no reason to believe this one will be any different.

Opening point spread: LSU by 13

The pick: LSU 32-9

Final: LSU 38-7

6) Florida at No. 24 Auburn
Sat., Oct. 15 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Gators spent the past two weeks getting torn apart by Alabama (38-10) and LSU (41-11). Now they hit the road to visit the defending national champs.

We could fill your head with thoughts about how bad Auburn (4-2, 2-1 in SEC) is on defense and other mind-numbing stats about both teams. But sometimes it just comes down to how these young people deal with specific moments in time.

In this instance, Florida (4-2, 2-2) just wants this stretch of games to be over with. Not only due to its brutality, but also because they have next weekend off.

The young Gator team won’t have the focus necessary to be successful at Jordan-Hare Stadium. They’ll be thinking about next week.

It’s just like you in your cube at work when those TPS reports are due just before your vacation.

Opening point spread: Auburn by 2

The pick: Auburn 27-20

Final: Auburn 17-6

7) No. 19 Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
Sat., Oct. 15 — 6:30 p.m. ET

Hokie quarterback Logan Thomas is coming off a sparking 23-of-25 performance that saw him pass for 310 yards and three touchdowns in last Saturday’s 38-35 victory over Miami (Fla.).

Thomas’ counterpart, Tanner Price, also had a great game last week, completing 21-of-35 for 233 yards and three scores in a 35-30 win over Florida State, which gave Wake Forest (4-1, 3-0) its best conference start since joining the ACC in 1953.

However, with all due respect to the quarterbacks, this game will come down to who can run it.

Wake Forest might be able to get that done, relying on running back Josh Harris, who ran for 214 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last year’s loss to Virginia Tech (5-1, 1-1). Meanwhile, the Demon Deacon defense, which allows only 102 rushing yards per game, can keep close enough tabs on Hokie running back David Wilson, who leads the league with 767 yards on the ground.

Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 7

The pick: Wake Forest 24-23

Final: Virginia Tech 38-17

8 ) No. 8 Clemson at Maryland
Sat., Oct. 15 — 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

It’s counterintuitive, but maybe the Terrapins would have preferred Tiger quarterback Tajh Boyd not sustain a hip injury in last Saturday’s 26-14 victory over Boston College. That’s because if the super soph is able to play against Maryland (2-3, 1-1 in ACC) as expected, Dabo Swinney is apt to have him hand off to running back Andre Ellington more than usual.

That’ll probably work out just fine for Clemson (6-0, 3-0), which will be going against a defense that ranks last in the ACC against the run, having allowed an average of 196 yards per game on the ground and a total of 13 rushing TDs.

Maryland is tougher versus the pass, yielding just 211 yards per game through the air and only one aerial score all season.

The Terrapins have questionable quarterbacking and a brewing QB controversy only complicates matters. The recently stingy Tiger defense won’t mind harassing either Danny O’Brien or C.J. Brown.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 7 1/2

The pick: Clemson 32-19

Final: Clemson 56-45

9) No. 2 Alabama at Mississippi
Sat., Oct. 15 — 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The big question is if the Crimson Tide will allow the Rebels to cross the goal line. No one else has in the last seven quarters of play against Alabama (6-0, 3-0 in SEC).

Ole Miss (2-3, 0-2) doesn’t seem like a likely candidate to break that trend, especially on the ground. The Rebels rank 99th in the nation in rushing offense. That doesn’t match up well with the Tide, which has given up only one rushing touchdown all season and is allowing just 3.2 yards per play.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 24 1/2

The pick: Alabama 35-3

Final: Alabama 52-7

10) No. 15 South Carolina at Mississippi State
Sat., Oct. 15 — Noon ET, SEC Network

Now that Connor Shaw has sparked and taken over the Gamecock offense from Stephen Garcia, many Bulldog fans are interested in something similar, after backup quarterback Tyler Russell got the job done in relief of Chris Relf in last week’s 21-3 victory over UAB.

Whoever gets the call for Mississippi State (3-3, 0-3 in SEC) doesn’t figure to get much going against South Carolina (5-1, 3-1), which boasts the nation’s third best pass defense (allowing only 128.5 yards per game through the air).

Opening point spread: South Carolina by 5 1/2

The pick: South Carolina 26-19

Final: South Carolina 14-12

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

We’re 9-2 on these vs. “the number” (Presbyterian’s game at Cal wasn’t on the board, that was just for laughs).

So, that’s why you shouldn’t ignore them … in case you were wondering. Maybe some of you should be looking here first.

USC at California
Thur., Oct. 13 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Golden Bears have dropped their last seven games to the Trojans and scored a total of just 20 points in the three most recent defeats.

But this isn’t your father’s USC. This is Lane Kiffin’s and his father’s USC. That USC (4-1, 2-1 in Pac-12) has a shockingly limp defense.

Look for Keenan Allen to have a big night for Cal (3-2, 0-2), stealing some of the spotlight away from another sophomore wideout by the name of Robert Woods.

Opening point spread: USC by 4

The pick: California 31-27

Final: USC 30-9

Indiana at No. 4 Wisconsin
Sat., Oct. 15 — Noon ET, ESPN2

Most people forgot or never knew that the Hoosiers and Badgers were tied up at 10-10 in the second quarter of last year’s meeting. Dropping 83 points on somebody will tend to make those kind of tidbits melt away.

As if that 63-point lambasting at Camp Randall Stadium wasn’t bad enough, Indiana (1-5, 0-2 in Big Ten) has to go back to the scene of the crime, this time as the Homecoming pinata.

We don’t subscribe to the opinion that Wisconsin (5-0, 1-0) turned it on unneccesarily a year ago. It just kind of ended up that way. Defensive TDs and third-stringers getting overly excited will lead to that sometimes.

This time around, however, with a Heisman Trophy headliner under center and Michigan State to tune up for, Bret Bielema has excuses to be unworried about anybody’s feelings.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 39

The pick: Wisconsin 59-13

Final: Wisconsin 59-7

Week 7 record: 10-2
Total: 65-19

Ole Miss announces co-OC Dan Werner won’t return in 2017

Leave a comment

Hugh Freeze‘s 2017 coaching staff at Ole Miss will have a decidedly different look than his 2016 version.

In late November, the football program announced that defensive coordinator Dave Wommack has decided to retire from coaching at the end of year after nearly four decades in the profession.  Nearly two weeks later, the rebels announced that co-offensive coordinator Dan Werner will not return as well.

Werner also served as quarterbacks coach.

“I am grateful to Dan for his contributions to our program,” Freeze said in a statement. “His leadership and experience were invaluable in the development of our quarterbacks. These are always very difficult decisions, but at this time, I believe it is best for our program to have a fresh approach. We wish Dan and his family the very best.”

In 2016, the Rebels were 13th nationally in passing offense and tied for 45th in scoring.  They were in the Top 10 in 2015 in both of those categories.

Matt Luke remains on staff as the other co-offensive coordinator while also holding the title of assistant head coach.  He’s also the Rebels’ line coach.

Werner has been in Oxford for all five year’s of Freeze’s tenure.  He was also the Rebels’ coordinator in 2006 and 2007 under Ed Orgeron, who is now the head coach at LSU.

In addition to the move on Werner, it was also announced that Barney Farrar, the assistant athletic director for high school and junior college relations, would not have his contract renewed.  Farrar had been on administrative leave prior to his dismissal.

Farrar was connected to the draft-day imbroglio involving former Ole Miss All-American offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil.  It was reported in October that an NCAA investigation into the football program is ongoing.

Houston AD goes papal amidst reports of Lane Kiffin hiring

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 19: University of Houston Frontiersman hold the UH flag and the American flag during the University of Houston school song before the Houston Cougars played the Southern Methodist University Mustangs on November 19, 2011 at Robertson Stadium in Houston, Texas. Houston defeated SMU 37-7.  (Photo by Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images)
Getty Images
5 Comments

Even in the midst of a coaching search that will determine your football program’s fortunes for the foreseeable future, you gotta have a little fun.

Late Wednesday, it appeared that Houston was zeroing in on a replacement for Tom Herman, who left to become the head coach at Texas late last month.  Thursday morning, it was reported that Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin had been hired by UH.

In response to the reports of a final decision being made, Cougars athletic director Hunter Yurachek offered a little papal levity, replete with non-white smoke indicating no football pope has been hired.

The Houston Chronicle, citing a source with knowledge of the situation, subsequently reported that “the University of Houston has not made a decision on its next football coach.”

That said, it’s expected that Kiffin is Yurachek’s man, with an announcement coming as early as tonight. University officials will meet later on today to finalize the search and come to a consensus.

In addition to Kiffin, ex-LSU head coach Les Miles and interim Houston coach Todd Orlando and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite have been under consideration.  ESPN.com‘s Brett McMurphy writes that “[w]hoever the next coach is, Houston is trying to require an excessive buyout so he can’t leave after a couple of seasons without paying a substantial penalty.”

As a reference point in that aspect of the situation, Herman’s buyout was $2.5 million.  Herman spent two seasons with the Cougars before leaving for the Longhorns.

Jay Norvell reportedly set to be named head coach at Nevada

Jay Norvell, Jerrod Heard
Associated Press
Leave a comment

Yet another FBS opening is reportedly on the verge of being closed.

According to a report from FootballScoop.com, Jay Norvell “will be the next head coach at Nevada.” The Reno Gazette-Journal writes that “Norvell, the third and final candidate to interview for the Wolf Pack football head-coaching vacancy, was so impressive he didn’t even leave Reno before being offered the job, which he quickly accepted.” Norvell was offered the job late Wednesday night.

The other two interviewed were Eastern Washington head coach Beau Baldwin and Vanderbilt offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig. The former interviewed Monday, the latter Tuesday.

If/when hired, Norvell would replace Brian Polian, who “mutually parted ways” with the football program last month after four seasons. This would be Norvell’s first head-coaching job at any level.

Norvell just completed his first regular season as an assistant on Todd Graham‘s Arizona State coaching staff.  With the Sun Devils, Norvell served as wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator.

Norvell has spent most of his nearly three decades in coaching at Power Five programs, with stops that included Texas (2015), Oklahoma (2008-14), UCLA (2007), Nebraska (2004-06), Iowa State (1995-97), Wisconsin (1989-94) and Iowa (1986-87).  He also spent six seasons as an assistant in the NFL — 1998-2001 as the wide receivers coach of the Indianapolis Colts, 2002-03 as tight ends coach of the Oakland Raiders.

Jim Harbaugh is looking forward to seeing Chief Osceola and Renegade at the Orange Bowl

TALLAHASSEE, FL - SEPTEMBER 15:  Chief Osceola, mascot of the Florida State Seminoles plants a spear at midfield prior to a game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak Campbell Stadium on September 15, 2012 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
4 Comments

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh and Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher got together for a joint press conference in Miami today as the two coaches prepare to face one another in the Orange Bowl on December 30. Harbaugh said he is looking forward to the matchup but seemed to be much more interested in getting a chance to witness one of the pregame traditions of Florida State; Chief Osceola riding on Renegade and planting a spear in the turf.

“I’ve never been to a game at Florida State,” Harbaugh said. “I’ve always wanted to go there and see what that atmosphere was like in person. This will be as close as I’ve ever been to that. I’m excited for that. I know I’m going to get some chills when that Appaloosa comes riding out there.”

Of course, this isn’t exactly a home game for the Seminoles, so sometimes pregame traditions are put on ice for the bowl season. Knowing this, Harbaugh made his case and made sure everyone listening knows just how cool he thinks it is.

“I want to see that. That’s one of the cool things,” Harbaugh said. “We have cool things and other teams have cool things, but that is right up there as one of the coolest things.”

Fortunately for Harbaugh, he will indeed get a chance to witness this pregame routine in person. Florida State Associate Athletics Director Jason Dennard said on Twitter Chief Osceola and Renegade will make the trip to Miami from Tallahassee.