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Predictions 101 — Week 5

Maryland v West Virginia Getty Images

We went 4-3 last week (both straight up and vs. “the number”), but feel left out.

How come only the fortunate folks who do this sort of thing for NFL games, get to have fun with the wild card of ridiculous replacement refs? Hey, we’d like to go on rants and blame our losses on officiating too.

Oh well.

Is it just us or does the college football season seem like it’s fast-forwarding away? Here we are at Week 5 already.

TOP 5 GAMES OF THE WEEK (Thurs., Sept. 27, thru Sat., Sept. 29)

1) No. 25 Baylor at No. 9 West Virginia
Sat., Sept. 29 — noon ET, FX

It’s all been building up to this for the Mountaineers, who are making their Big 12 debut. And the Bears have been holding up their end rather well, perhaps unexpectedly.

Some doubted Baylor’s ability to soldier on without Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Robert Griffin III, running back Terrance Ganaway and wideout Kendall Wright, but Nick Florence has stepped up admirably, throwing for at least 312 yards and three scores in all three games this season.

On the flip side, the West Virginia offense led by quarterback Geno Smith has lived up to its lofty preseason hype. With 1,072 passing yards, 12 touchdown passes and zero interceptions on Smith’s resume so far, he is the Heisman frontrunner.

Along with wideouts Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, Smith has to be licking his chops. The prospect of a team that’s allowing 492.7 yards per game coming into Morgantown for the first time is quite inviting and could signal a landslide of points.

Baylor, which is averaging 51.3 points per game (fifth in the nation), should generate some success of its own against a West Virginia defense that allowed Maryland to pass for 305 yards and convert on half of its 14 third-down attempts in a closer-than-expected 31-21 victory last Saturday. We just don’t expect it to be nearly enough.

The Bears are 0-25 versus ranked Big 12 foes on the road and don’t figure to break through on Mountaineer Field.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 10

The pick: West Virginia 45-27

2) No. 14 Ohio State at No. 20 Michigan State
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This is as good as it gets for the Big Ten at this point, but it sadly feels so incomplete.

Spartan signalcaller Andrew Maxwell has been underwhelming so far, but a sloppy fleet of receivers should share the blame. Thankfully for Michigan State, running back Le’Veon Bell has held up his end of the bargain, grinding out 152.5 yards per game (although only 77 versus Notre Dame).

Perhaps that group will find its groove against a Buckeye defense that’s far below its usual caliber, ranking last in the B1G in yards allowed (394.8).

Michigan State’s defense, on the other hand, leads the league in every major statistical category. That includes surrendering just 69.3 yards per game on the ground.

Buckeye quarterback Braxton Miller and running back Carlos Hyde, who has recovered from a sprained knee, have their sights set on rushing for many more yards than that, but it remains to be seen … just like the overall revival expected under the direction of Urban Meyer.

Perhaps they’ve been waiting for this stage to make a statement.

Opening point spread: Even

The pick: Ohio State 24-23

3) No. 12 Texas at Oklahoma State
Sat., Sept. 29 — 7:50 p.m. ET, FOX

Both teams had last week off to look forward to this one.

They also had an opportunity to look around the country and see who was doing what, especially teams they’ve played recently. What each camp saw was quite different.

Last time out, the Longhorns wrecked Ole Miss, 66-31. The Rebels, however, bounced back last week with a 39-0 victory at Tulane. RPI geeks love that stuff!

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are still smarting from a 59-38 loss at Arizona on Sept. 8. Watching those same Wildcats get melted down by Oregon, 49-0, last Saturday must have been pure agony for Mike Gundy.

Oddly enough, Texas visiting Stillwater isn’t the worst thing in the world for Oklahoma State. Although the Cowboys have won only four of the 26 games in the series, half of those victories have come in the last two years.

Most of the early talk about this matchup has focused on who’ll be behind center for OSU, but we won’t quibble either way without that knowledge. Whether it’s Wes Lunt at less than 100 percent or J.W. Walsh, we’re still talking about a young player who hasn’t yet got a taste for the big-time in primetime. No matter who takes the snaps, capable Cowboy running back Joseph Randle will have to carry a large portion of the mail against the Longhorn defense.

Texas’ quarterbacking isn’t in question. Sophomore David Ash has been sensational so far this season, completing 76 percent of his passes, with seven touchdown tosses and zero interceptions. However, astronomical passer ratings built at the expense of Wyoming, New Mexico and Ole Miss don’t really get us going enough to envision a win on the road for the Longhorns, who have won just six league games in the previous two seasons.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 37-31

4) No. 18 Oregon State at Arizona
Sat., Sept. 29 — 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network

This prediction comes courtesy of Shane Hedani from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai’i.

Utilizing good blue-collar football to produce two wins over ranked teams, while holding a pair of Heisman Trophy contending running backs to just 61 and 45 yards on the ground, Oregon State has been impressive and we are Beaver believers.

Oddsmakers aren’t as sold. We aren’t sure if they realize that the Beavs have taken six in a row from the Cats in Tucson.

Coach Mike Riley has the defense to do it again. Oregon State defenders are disciplined in their assignments, limit big plays and tackle well. However, the Arizona offense will see more production within the comfortable confines of the Zona Zoo.

We have to understand that the Oregon defense played well in last week’s 49-0 cruise past Arizona, but the football Gods also were smiling down on the Ducks. The Cats really set themselves up for the shutout by botching a field goal that would have put the first points on the board. In the end, they had six fruitless trips into the red zone and four turnovers.

That won’t happen two weeks in a row. The Arizona offense will get back into rhythm and Oregon State is in for a fight.

One might wonder how the Beavers will counter the Cats’ speedy 3-3-5 defense, which limited Oregon to just 13 first-half points. They’ll use freshman running back Storm Woods to control the pace, wear the UofA D down and win on a last-second score.

Opening point spread: Arizona by 3

The pick: Oregon State 33-31

5) Tennessee at No. 5 Georgia
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

It’s a bit of unfamiliar territory for the SEC’s marquee matchup to be this far down the P101 list. But most of that has to do with us being unable to trust a Volunteer defense that has been prone to give up big plays.

That bad habit won’t serve them well against a Bulldog offense triggered by Aaron Murray and powered by freshmen running backs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, which hasn’t scored less than 41 points in any game this season.

Not only is Georgia fresh off an impressive 48-3 victory over Vanderbilt, it might (only Mark Richt knows for sure) regain the services of safety Bacarri Rambo and linebacker Alec Ogletree, who have been sidelined by suspension since the start of the campaign.

The Bulldog defense has been stout, but some reinforcements would help in the effort to slow down the effectiveness of Vol quarterback Tyler Bray, who has the luxury of two show-stopping wideouts in Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Opening point spread: Georgia by 15 1/2

The pick: Georgia 38-27

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK

No. 17 Clemson at Boston College
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif.

For the second time in three weeks, the P101-USOTW suffered a one-point defeat courtesy of a kicker failing in spectacular fashion. We’ll safeguard against that happening again by leaning on the leg of Eagle placekicker Nate Freese, who has connected on all 15 of his attempts this season (seven field goals and eight PATs).

Despite a 1-2 record, Boston College quarterback Chase Rettig has settled in nicely in his third year on Chestnut Hill, tossing just one interception while leading the ACC with 317 passing yards per game. He should continue his prolific connection with junior wide receiver Alex Amidon to give the Eagles scoring opportunities against a Clemson defense that was picked apart for 380 passing yards by Florida State’s E.J. Manuel last week.

After getting the better of the Seminoles for nearly three quarters, the Tigers will have to regroup from a devastating loss, which is much easier said than done. Last year, Clemson pulled a Clemson, going into a swoon that saw it go 2-3 the rest of the way after suffering its first defeat.

The Eagle defense features the nation’s leading tackler in senior linebacker Nick Clancy. He can help muck things up to produce a result similar to their 16-10 victory at Alumni Field two years ago.

Perhaps this is more “under” than upset.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 11

The pick: Boston College 19-13

RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK

Houston vs. Rice (at Reliant Stadium)
Sat., Sept. 29 — 3:30 p.m. ET,

Separated by less than five miles, the warring factions in the Bayou Bucket Classic are as close as you’ll find at the FBS level.

Last year’s matchup, however, wasn’t close at all, as Houston accounted for 73 of the game’s 107 points.

Rice’s defense seems intent on repeating that limp performance. The Owls currently rank dead last in the country in scoring defense, allowing nearly 46 points per game.

But they won’t have to deal with Case Keenum this time. In fact, Rice might have the more effective offense.

Houston has turned the football over 10 times already this season, which is one of the reasons the Cougars have yet to hold a lead over anyone.

The Bayou Bucket hasn’t stayed in the same place since the Cougars won three in a row from 2005 to 2007. It’s the Owls’ turn to take it over to their side of town.

Opening point spread: Houston by 7

The pick: Rice 35-34

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10 Responses to “Predictions 101 — Week 5”
  1. southernpatriots says: Sep 26, 2012 5:54 PM

    John:

    I enjoy your feature each week. It puts me in the state of mind to watch the games featured and others that are not featured, which brings me to a point. If anything your feature needs to be longer so you can include more teams. Thank you for considering.

    TN at Georgia. Georgia has been playing well, very well, and TN has not. It is at Georgia, that means it will be won by Georgia 41 -21.

    Geno’s going to have some fun. But the Mountaineers must muster a defense, at least a good opportunistic defense, and if they do, this will be a runaway. WVU 45 – 28.

    My alma mater LSU v. Towson. Towson? How did that happen? Oh well, we play them, we don’t schedule them but we play them. LSU 53 – 10 (or less). LSU will take out on Towson their frustration with just about giving the game away to Auburn on turnovers last week. Poor Towson.

    Keep in mind, LSU played Oregon last year out of conference, and will play TCU next season.

    Don’t want to keep going here because there are many good match-ups this week and the thing above all others, I hope and pray no more players get spinal injuries or concussions this week. There have been far too many already.

  2. dmcgrann says: Sep 26, 2012 7:08 PM

    I can guarantee in the LSU-Towson game, that the Tigers will win. Probably the LSU Tigers, but I won’t count out the Towson Tigers until the game is played.

    Towson has been fairly good in the last couple of years after sort of being the doormat in the CAA for awhile. They have what seems to me to be a very unusual schedule for a FCS team, as their three nonconference opponents this year includes two FBS teams. I’ve got to give them credit for scheduling up instead of down.

  3. alligatorsnapper says: Sep 26, 2012 7:34 PM

    dmcgrann:

    Good and humorous post. Reason Towson scheduled FBS teams? Money, payout. They need the funds to keep their program afloat, as do most FCS programs. If they scheduled down, they could just close the program because they would not have enough funds to pay the overhead.

    Game trend—LSU will start dominating at the end of the first half, and the second half will be a landslide…final LSU 45 – 15.

  4. chachooga says: Sep 26, 2012 7:57 PM

    JT come on man….i know this site is notorious for bashing the ACC like Benny K displaying the U logo upside down etc etc….but come on man.

    Clemson put up 40ish on FSU and you have them getting upset 19-13?!??!?

    sure I will eat crow if clemson doesn’t score 30….or they lose.

    But you are a bit over the top on this supposed “upset special”

  5. dmcgrann says: Sep 26, 2012 8:22 PM

    alligatorsnapper, I understand the money angle completely. But, as far as I know, it’s really unusual for a FCS team like Towson that plays in what may be the toughest FCS league to schedule more than one FBS opponent. Delaware, Old Dominion, and Liberty all scheduled DII teams this year. Delaware and ODU didn’t schedule a FBS team at all. Interestingly, ODU will begin it’s “transition” to FBS next year without ever having played a FBS school.

  6. pricecube says: Sep 26, 2012 11:09 PM

    Agree with some of these picks … although I think 1)Baylor and WV will be closer … I see that game as being one touchdown. Baylor is a little better than most ppl realize and WV may not be quite as good as many think. 2) Michigan State over Ohio State by 3. I have been impressed with LeVeon (sp?) Bell… 3) Georgia is the one team Tennessee often seems to upset historically. The Vols murdered Georgia under Kiffin a couple of years ago… Unfortunately, until Dooley beats someone he is not supposed to I have no faith he can. Georgia wins by three touchdowns. 4) Texas beats OSU by 14. The talent is too deep for Oklahoma State to keep up with Texas in the fourth quarter. 5) I don’t watch Pac 12 football much … it is on pretty late here… Oregon State may be great but I have not watched them play so I will pick the TCU SMU rivalry game. SMU always plays their best football of the year against the Horned Frogs and June Jones seems to have Gary Patterson”s number. The Frogs want revenge for last year’s loss… They hope to really take it out on the Mustangs… but SMU hangs around until the fourth quarter. The Frogs win by 7.

  7. Deb says: Sep 26, 2012 11:42 PM

    Must agree with other commenters that you sometimes arouse my interest in a game I wouldn’t otherwise have watched–in this case, Ohio State/Michigan State. Hope it turns out to be as exciting as you’ve predicted.

    Surprised you’re taking Oklahoma State over 12th-ranked Texas–another game I’ll try to check out that I might otherwise have passed up.

    The Tide has Ole Miss, and while we’re favored, nothing is certain in football (although, thank goodness, things aren’t quite as uncertain in the NCAA as they are in the replacement-officiated NFL). Looking forward to the traditional SEC West matchup.

  8. footballleprechaun says: Sep 26, 2012 11:59 PM

    Please realize WV is the modt overrated team in all of college football Who have they played thus fat? No offense to: James Madison!!!!!!!! Marshall and a down Maryland who actually outplayed them I’m laying 8-5 they dont end up in top 20 team is a bunch of boys (minus 1 or 2 athletes) in for a rude awakening

  9. martinporres says: Sep 27, 2012 11:38 AM

    footballleprechaun, I applaud your bravery in posting on an English language website when it is obviously not your first language. Many teams haven’t played anybody yet, but you play who you play. Can’t hold it against them.

  10. seanmmartin says: Sep 27, 2012 8:49 PM

    Good to see someone else has BC winning this game.

    Also expect an upset in Florida this weekend.

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